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[SneakersSO]

IMO it will depend a lot on the success of the product, if they see demand for Xbox One collapsing and a strong interest in the Scorpio, give it a year and they will totally focus on Scorpio forgetting about everthing they promised at E3 2016 just like the did with Kinect.

I think it'll be pretty impossible for the collapse of the X1 S demand to occur, especially in light of Scorpio, and in particular when 3rd party are in no position or have any desire to conduct a generational upgrade at this time. MS' 1st party is already almost entirely accounted for, and unless Halo 6 is Scorpio exclusive in 2018, I don't see any piece of software that can act as a hardware driver.

In order for anyone to take the Scorpio as a standalone platform seriously, its sales would have to outpace an already established platform when its launch aligned. If the Scorpio's first 6 months on the market is doing as well or outselling the X1's first 6 months on the market, then we might see a growing interest in treating the platform as a standalone generation from MS. If it continues past that, we'll see 3rd parties take it more seriously around the 12 month or 18 month mark. However, if its sales are lower? Yeah, it'll just wind up being the Pro to MS' X1.

 

[Birgitte2004]

Do you think that closing the 1 years sales gap they had came without changing the strategy they launched with?
Hence, the turnaround .

They started closing that gap from the instant they launched in Mainland EU, and it closed at a fairly steady pace from that time.

You can't look at a sales chart and say "THIS is the moment of the tournaround", unless that moment happens to be when they launched in other regions. But I don't know how anyone can call that a tournaround.

IMO the only reason people think there was a tournaround is because US media was busy making stupid US-based comparison articles like "The PS3 is selling worse than the Gamecube", up until they finally took notice that the PS3 was actually steadily catching up to the 360 world-wide.

 

[hanspampel]

Another 25 million in the next 5 to 7 years? Xbox Scorpio S? Under this scenario it would be catastrophic if they couldn't hit 50 million. In next 3 years they will struggle struggle to hit 50 million which is probably what most have in my mind when they say this generation.

xbox one scorpio will be released next year. and ofc within 3 or 4 years, we'll have a "s" refresh of that console. just like xbox one s and ps4 slim.

the generation ends, when the product will be EOL and not supported anymore. so we talk about lifetime sales obviously. and with the incremental hardware upgrades, this generation will not end in 3 years. for microsoft tho, the generation will maybe never end until any major change in the technology world will happen.

 

[ianpm31]

They started closing that gap from the instant they launched in Mainland EU, and it closed at a fairly steady pace from that time.

You can't look at a sales chart and say "THIS is the moment of the tournaround", unless that moment happens to be when they launched in other regions. But I don't know how anyone can call that a tournaround.

IMO the only reason people think there was a tournaround is because US media was busy making stupid US-based comparison articles like "The PS3 is selling worse than the Gamecube", up until they finally took notice that the PS3 was actually steadily catching up to the 360 world-wide.

That's very true. Even when the xbox won the last 4 months of npd's some people started thinking the xbone was outselling ps4 worldwide which is delusional. For some reason winning npd's gives off the perception that you are now winning worldwide. It's ridiculous so I pretty much agree with what you said about the ps3. I even had to explain to some of my friends that the ps3 was actually catching up worldwide around that time.

 

[scently]

I mean, people can say they believe its a new gen, but both MS themselves have stated it isn't/won't be, and as i've listed below, they don't have the 1st party man-power that isn't tied up with X1 development needed to support a new generation with exclusive software in order to help it sell.

Xbox fans just think a fresh start would be enough to get the brand back on top, when the reality is that a new generation would likely face a series of troubles X1 currently doesn't have.

Who are these so called Xbox fans that believe this? Because I am not seeing them. Most just expect it to be what MS has said it is; a more powerful console that will give them the opportunity to play the same games better.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

By the time Xbox 1 + XBSlim + Xbock Scorpio gets close to 40 million install base everyone's gonna be saving up for the PS5 and the PS4 family will have sailed past 100 million. We'll be on PS VR revision 2.0 and be watching as MS lets the VR does mainstream show pass them by.

In all scenarios, MS's future in the gaming industry doesn't look rosy.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

xbox one scorpio will be released next year. and ofc within 3 or 4 years, we'll have a "s" refresh of that console. just like xbox one s and ps4 slim.

the generation ends, when the product will be EOL and not supported anymore. so we talk about lifetime sales obviously. and with the incremental hardware upgrades, this generation will not end in 3 years. for microsoft tho, the generation will maybe never end until any major change in the technology world will happen.

That's great and all, but it needs really, really good software support to make it happen. Microsoft's 1st party games have performed worse than their predecessors and their 3rd party deals have mostly not done much.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

Last time I checked it was MS who said it's up to the developers how they bring out their games. Could be I missed something, but until MS proves me otherwise I will stick to what I believe MS will do. I base that on their past actions

Nope they very quickly rolled that back and went back to the "there will be no exclusive scorpio games outside of maybe VR" rhetoric.

If the Scorpio releases and they leave XBO owners behind they will have lied.

 

[Y2Kev]

Xbox one + Xbox Scorpio + Xbox two Scorpio + Riemann sum of all future xboxes = way beyond 40 million!

 

[blakep267]

By the time Xbox 1 + XBSlim + Xbock Scorpio gets close to 40 million install base everyone's gonna be saving up for the PS5 and the PS4 family will have sailed past 100 million. We'll be on PS VR revision 2.0 and be watching as MS lets the VR does mainstream show pass them by.

In all scenarios, MS's future in the gaming industry doesn't look rosy.

Scorpio is likely going to be compatible with the rift and vive. 2 better headsets than PSVR. And their 2nd iterations will likely be better than now

 

[Renekton]

Scorpio is likely going to be compatible with the rift and vive. 2 better headsets than PSVR. And their 2nd iterations will likely be better than now

IINM MS is pushing its own proprietary headset

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Scorpio is likely going to be compatible with the rift and vive. 2 better headsets than PSVR. And their 2nd iterations will likely be better than now

Yeah most people will be enjoying those headsets on PC and if they want living room VR they'll be playing on their PS4 Pro + PSVR combo. MS is not even at the races.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Xbox one + Xbox Scorpio + Xbox two Scorpio + Riemann sum of all future xboxes = way beyond 40 million!

I'm afraid you're incorrect. As counterintuitive as it may be, the Riemann sum of all future Xboxes actually equals -1/12.

xbox one scorpio will be released next year. and ofc within 3 or 4 years, we'll have a "s" refresh of that console. just like xbox one s and ps4 slim.

the generation ends, when the product will be EOL and not supported anymore. so we talk about lifetime sales obviously. and with the incremental hardware upgrades, this generation will not end in 3 years.

I think even with "generationless" hardware we can make clear cuts. One option would be to treat it like PC does: if the GPU or CPU uses a new architecture, that's a new generation. So Scorpio wouldn't count (or will half count, if it uses Zen), but the following device probably would be different.

Alternatively, we could separate generations by software. As soon as a game comes out that does not run on original Xbox One (or runs extremely poorly), the newest hardware at the time is next-generation.

I think it'll be no more than 4 years before we see either of those break points.

 

[statham]

That's great and all, but it needs really, really good software support to make it happen. Microsoft's 1st party games have performed worse than their predecessors and their 3rd party deals have mostly not done much.

It performed worse because they lost a decent amount of the core to PS4, peeps who want to play the game best looking on a console. 360 was the winner last gen, PS4 is now, those peeps you lost aren't buying Gears or Halo but would have if XB1 was stronger then PS4. Scorpio should correct all of this.

 

[Fox_Mulder]

It performed worse because they lost a decent amount of the core to PS4, peeps who want to play the game best looking on a console. 360 was the winner last gen, PS4 is now, those peeps you lost aren't buying Gears or Halo but would have if XB1 was stronger then PS4. Scorpio should correct all of this.

Thanks God!

 

[AniHawk]

By the time Xbox 1 + XBSlim + Xbock Scorpio gets close to 40 million install base everyone's gonna be saving up for the PS5 and the PS4 family will have sailed past 100 million. We'll be on PS VR revision 2.0 and be watching as MS lets the VR does mainstream show pass them by.

In all scenarios, MS's future in the gaming industry doesn't look rosy.

eh, next year the ps4 will probably be around 70-75m at this point in time while the xb1 will probably be over 30m at least. i think ps4 sales are actually going to start slowing down starting next year though, and especially in 2018, with a ps5 in 2018 or 2019.

it depends what the scorpio is. microsoft could very well make it into the fourth xbox platform and let the xb1 play its games in a sort of gb/gbc way. i think the ps5 might be the same thing, although sony might try a cleaner approach since they couldn't really get all the developers to bend to their whim regarding the ps4 pro's requirements overriding every single ps4 game.

 

[Raylan]

Who are these so called Xbox fans that believe this? Because I am not seeing them. Most just expect it to be what MS has said it is; a more powerful console that will give them the opportunity to play the same games better.

Oh I see a lot of them. And some think "more powah" will let them all flock back to Xbox, where they will buy Halo and Gears again and again and again. Well, in my opinion, they're in for a rude awakening.

 

[statham]

Thanks God!

God no, but we do have Phil.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

It performed worse because they lost a decent amount of the core to PS4, peeps who want to play the game best looking on a console. 360 was the winner last gen, PS4 is now, those peeps you lost aren't buying Gears or Halo but would have if XB1 was stronger then PS4. Scorpio should correct all of this.

Power isn't the only reason the Xbox lost much of its core base (a core base that was once on PS2, mind you) to the PS4.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

It performed worse because they lost a decent amount of the core to PS4, peeps who want to play the game best looking on a console. 360 was the winner last gen, PS4 is now, those peeps you lost aren't buying Gears or Halo but would have if XB1 was stronger then PS4. Scorpio should correct all of this.

Yeah it won't be that easy. More power won't be a magic bullet. Install base is also is not main the reason Halo and Gears are declining.

 

[statham]

Power isn't the only reason the Xbox lost much of its core base (a core base that was once on PS2, mind you) to the PS4.

Yeah it won't be that easy. More power won't be a magic bullet. Install base is also is not main the reason Halo and Gears are declining.

we will see.

 

[Matt]

For all the talk of the upcoming "generationless" future for XBox, the original XBO won't be able to play the games made for the follow up to the Scorpio (if there is one). That will make it a new generation.

And in this generation, Xbox is never going to catch up to PlayStation.

 

[statham]

For all the talk of the upcoming "generationless" future for XBox, the original XBO won't be able to play the games made for the follow up to the Scorpio (if there is one). That will make it a new generation.

And in this generation, Xbox is never going to catch up to PlayStation.

and here we go, from a insider.

 

[EmiPrime]

It performed worse because they lost a decent amount of the core to PS4, peeps who want to play the game best looking on a console. 360 was the winner last gen, PS4 is now, those peeps you lost aren't buying Gears or Halo but would have if XB1 was stronger then PS4. Scorpio should correct all of this.

It's not that simple and power was not the only reason the PS4 outsold the XB1 2:1. By the time Scorpio comes out those in the PS4 ecosystem will have had 4 years of games purchases, possibly have expensive peripherals like steering wheels and arcade sticks, maybe an investment in PSVR, friends are all on PS4 etc. in other words they're entrenched and buying another premium priced console that plays mostly the same games and requires another yearly subscription to get the most out of is a hard sell. The "core" aren't going to shell out $400+ to jump ship in their droves just because Scorpio will have a nicer looking RDR2.

I am looking forward to Scorpio but I will be very surprised if it doesn't just preach to the already converted.

 

[statham]

double post.

 

[Nightengale]

For all the talk of the upcoming "generationless" future for XBox, the original XBO won't be able to play the games made for the follow up to the Scorpio (if there is one). That will make it a new generation.

And in this generation, Xbox is never going to catch up to PlayStation.

This. And the same will be true for PS5.

Pro and Scorpio will consciously and smartly be tied and core to their existing PS4/XB1 platform and the following product after that will be when they do the cutoff point of exclusives.

And this was far and away the most rational choice either company could've done. Anyone believing that Scorpio or Pro would leap into being a new gen with exclusives for that platform isn't being very far sighted.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

and here we go, from a insider.

He just confirmed what most people were already saying. Scorpio isn't a new generation(just like the Pro isnt) but whatever comes after that will be whether regardless of how the companies market it.

 

[onQ123]

For all the talk of the upcoming "generationless" future for XBox, the original XBO won't be able to play the games made for the follow up to the Scorpio (if there is one). That will make it a new generation.

And in this generation, Xbox is never going to catch up to PlayStation.

World wide no but they can stop PS4 from getting so far ahead in the US/UK market that things end up like with the PS2 when 3rd parties was making PS2 exclusives & not bothering with Xbox & Gamecube.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

World wide no but they can stop PS4 from getting so far ahead in the US/UK market that things end up like with the PS2 when 3rd parties was making PS2 exclusives & not bothering with Xbox & Gamecube.

They have already done that. Holiday 2014 was the turning point that kept this generation from being a complete disaster for Microsoft.

 

[Matt]

World wide no but they can stop PS4 from getting so far ahead in the US/UK market that things end up like with the PS2 when 3rd parties was making PS2 exclusives & not bothering with Xbox & Gamecube.

There isn't really a danger of that happening on a wide scale. There are and will continue to be enough XBOs out there with enough active users for most titles to be ported, outside of some specific niche genres.

 

[Y2Kev]

Still kinda curious to see how switch will change things. I don't see how they can get the pricing right.

 

[Nightengale]

Plenty of 3rd party games did make it to Xbox OG as well. The vaunted PS2 exclusivity status was a lot of them Japanese games and the Japanese scene today is a lot weaker compared to before in terms of mass market appeal.

 

[hanspampel]

For all the talk of the upcoming "generationless" future for XBox, the original XBO won't be able to play the games made for the follow up to the Scorpio (if there is one). That will make it a new generation.

And in this generation, Xbox is never going to catch up to PlayStation.

jup. that is the difference between infinite backward compatibility and forward compatibility.

the console after the xbox scorpio refresh could do that forward break.
if you want to call it a new generation or not, is a question of definition.

and no. catch up of ps4 will not happen this "generation"

 

[Matt]

Still kinda curious to see how switch will change things. I don't see how they can get the pricing right.

Everyone is. There was a lot of (understandable) skepticism that has been raddled by the positive reaction is has received.

As for pricing, I guess that depends on what you consider "right." I don't think it'll be a major limiting factor.

 

[Y2Kev]

Everyone is. There was a lot of (understandable) skepticism that has been raddled by the positive reaction is has received.

As for pricing, I guess that depends on what you consider "right." I don't think it'll be a major limiting factor.

I think it will be a handheld with console pricing. Positive reception to Nintendo consoles seems pretty universal.

 

[El-Pistolero]

It performed worse because they lost a decent amount of the core to PS4, peeps who want to play the game best looking on a console. 360 was the winner last gen, PS4 is now, those peeps you lost aren't buying Gears or Halo but would have if XB1 was stronger then PS4. Scorpio should correct all of this.

I doubt it will. Not when people are locked into specific consoles ecosystems, with hundreds upon hundreds of dollars already invested. Not when Sony has the flexibility to drop the PS4 and PS4 Pro prices around the launch of the Xbox Two. Not when, by the time the latter console comes out, the gap between the Xbox One and the PS4 will be around 35 millions, give or take. The future might prove me wrong, but the chances of the Xbox Two somehow managing to reverse the tide and change the current landscape configuration are incredibly slim...

 

[Matt]

I think it will be a handheld with console pricing. Positive reception to Nintendo consoles seems pretty universal.

It's not a handheld, so the idea is that will be seen as something of a bargain considering its versatility.

In other words, it's not going to be presented as an expensive portable, it's a console that has portability as a huge value-added feature.

 

[xabbott]

That's very true. Even when the xbox won the last 4 months of npd's some people started thinking the xbone was outselling ps4 worldwide which is delusional. For some reason winning npd's gives off the perception that you are now winning worldwide. It's ridiculous so I pretty much agree with what you said about the ps3. I even had to explain to some of my friends that the ps3 was actually catching up worldwide around that time.

I know the way the US media covers this stuff seems annoying but at the same time is it surprising really? For US gamers who consume stuff like IGN/Gamespot they likely want to know if the market for their console is doing well in the US since it directly affects the likelihood of games coming to the system, amount of multiplayer matches, 3rd parties being attracted to the platform, etc.

 

[AniHawk]

Still kinda curious to see how switch will change things. I don't see how they can get the pricing right.

it'll be treated as a console in the us. i am guessing $299.99 with a game bundled in and it would need to be something that takes advantage of the gimmick of the joycons each being a controller, to create value for parents. anything higher is going to be suicide.... or if not, they would probably have very low/realistic expectations. a $349.99/$399.99 console isn't going to work. this actually might be the reason for the 2 million units planned for launch.

 

[Massa]

I think it will be a handheld with console pricing. Positive reception to Nintendo consoles seems pretty universal.

I don't see why it would have console pricing, the Shield Tablet was $199 and Nintendo is known for going cheap when they can, they know price is vital to reach children.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't think it will have any 199 sku, which is already high for that market IMO.

 

[AniHawk]

I don't think it will have any 199 sku, which is already high for that market IMO.

$299.99 is a pretty mass-market price point on video game consoles. it's been that way since the ps2. at $349.99-$399.99 (or more), it's much more in the way of a luxury item for early adopters, brand loyalists, and tech fans.

the 2 million initial shipment, for a worldwide launch, is what makes me think it could be higher. although this year in general has shown that kimishima might be far more conservative with money and sales estimates.

 

[onQ123]

There isn't really a danger of that happening on a wide scale. There are and will continue to be enough XBOs out there with enough active users for most titles to be ported, outside of some specific niche genres.

Without Scorpio & with the PS4/PS4 Pro user base growing out of control & giving devs more head room to take advantage of the hardware I think there would have been a big chance of PS4 3rd party exclusives going forward.

 

[Matt]

Without Scorpio & with the PS4/PS4 Pro user base growing out of control & giving devs more head room to take advantage of the hardware I think there would have been a big chance of PS4 3rd party exclusives going forward.

Nah.

 

[Chaos2Frozen]

Without Scorpio & with the PS4/PS4 Pro user base growing out of control & giving devs more head room to take advantage of the hardware I think there would have been a big chance of PS4 3rd party exclusives going forward.

Unlikely, unless they're made by Japanese developers.

Even then the pool is getting smaller.

 

[AniHawk]

Unlikely, unless they're made by Japanese developers.

Even then the pool is getting smaller.

japanese exclusives would have to be considered by only big, big third-parties expecting some kind of huge support out of sony. otherwise, ps4/switch (and steam) makes more sense moving forward.

 

[yukianderson]

A 199 PS4 and a 299 Pro will kill next year.

 

[Purest 78]

It performed worse because they lost a decent amount of the core to PS4, peeps who want to play the game best looking on a console. 360 was the winner last gen, PS4 is now, those peeps you lost aren't buying Gears or Halo but would have if XB1 was stronger then PS4. Scorpio should correct all of this.

X1 biggest problem was it was the least powerful Console but cost the most. If X1 launched cheaper than ps4 being lower powered wouldn't have mattered as much. People are used to paying less for the lower powered console not the other way around.

 

[Norse]

There was nothing to turn round. Launch aligned, the PS3 was selling just as much, if not more than the 360 straight out of the gate. It was never getting the thrashing that Microsoft is now.

This is a NPD thread....at no time in npd was any of what you said true. 360 kicked the living crap out of ps3 for an ungodly number of months straight here in the US.

Ps3 and 360 ended up within 1 million of each other world wide at the moment with 360 doing absolutely nothing in Japan. So the number of ps3 sold in Japan is pretty much how much the ps3 got owned in US and UK. Do a little research before you post that crap. And if you meant world wide, it has no place in a npd thread.

Xx edit xX

Or, if talking world wide, say so in the post.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

This is a NPD thread....at no time in npd was any of what you said true. 360 kicked the living crap out of ps3 for an ungodly number of months straight here in the US.

Ps3 and 360 ended up within 1 million of each other world wide at the moment with 360 doing absolutely nothing in Japan. So the number of ps3 sold in Japan is pretty much how much the ps3 got owned in US and UK. Do a little research before you post that crap. And if you meant world wide, it has no place in a npd thread.

Actually it was Japan and Europe. Worldwide sales talk is not forbidden in NPD topics. It's not like we get monthly or weekly topics dedicated to that. I mean I know PS is the only one with a global presence, but that doesn't make it irrelevant.