Spider-Man Homecoming Predictions
Before I begin, I wanted to look at the OW, LTD and multiplier for each Spider-Man movie, especially the one who had a great WOM which is likely going to be the case for Spider-Man Homecoming as well.
Spider-Man 1 - $114,844,11 OW - $403,706,375 LTD - 3.51 Multiplier
Spider-Man 2 - $88,156,227 OW - $373,585,825 LTD - 4.23 Multiplier
Spider-Man 3 - $151,116,516 OW - $336,530,303 LTD - 2.22 Multiplier
The Amazing Spider-Man - $62,004,688 OW - $262,030,663 LTD - 4.22 Multiplier
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $91,608,337 OW - $202,853,933 LTD - 2.21 Multiplier
So looking at the data above, the movies that have been well received by critics and fans are the ones that usually keep a steady box office after their initial opening. One such result is The Amazing Spider-Man which was received well by critics and it wasn't until the sequel that the movie completely tanked. Similar case for Spider-Man 3 where the bad WOM completely killed the movie.
I think Spider-Man has some good will coming for it since he was featured in Captain America Civil War and he had one of the most hyped appearance for a Super Hero. The movie is also getting rave reviews and WOM around it is going to be pretty good. However the OW isn't going to be as big as Spider-Man 3 here so my prediction for the domestic box office is one with a low OW but with a good hold over the weeks.
Spider-Man Homecoming
Opening Week: $110M
Domestic: $350M
International: $600M
Worldwide: $950M
I don't think it can reach a billion but it should come close. WOM and the weekend multiplier will be interesting to watch for sure.