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Baldur's Gate 3 wouldn't exist in a subscriptions future

Yoboman

Member
y4QC92F.jpg


Gamepass relies on arbitrary valuations by unknown middle men on what a game is worth. That is the revenue you will make as a developer in a subscription future and that's it

A subscription only future would be bleak for the type of breakout hit that Baldur's Gate 3 was. You can't even fund a game like this when your valuation is lower than Wreckfest 2

The service will reap all the benefit of your game being a surprise major hit while your studio makes a measly 5 million instead of hundreds of millions it would have in the buy to play model. Why ever make anything ambitious that isn't a sequel?
 

Yoboman

Member
Game Pass is just a option. You can still buy the game full priced.
Disc drives being removed from consoles. Digital only future. All up to the service eventually if you get it on a subscription or storefront

And whats the difference when Gamepass or similar are the way 90% of the audience accesses games? Xbox software sales are already in the toilet

Breakout hits stop being a thing
 

SF Kosmo

Al Jazeera Special Reporter
y4QC92F.jpg


Gamepass relies on arbitrary valuations by unknown middle men on what a game is worth. That is the revenue you will make as a developer in a subscription future and that's it

A subscription only future would be bleak for the type of breakout hit that Baldur's Gate 3 was. You can't even fund a game like this when your valuation is lower than Wreckfest 2

The service will reap all the benefit of your game being a surprise major hit while your studio makes a measly 5 million instead of hundreds of millions it would have in the buy to play model. Why ever make anything ambitious that isn't a sequel?
Well these are just someone's estimate of what a publisher will ask. They could be completely incorrect about these estimates (and probably were in this case).

Obviously, though, Larian underestimated the value and reach of their own game, so it's fortunate they didn't sign any deals like this.
 

ckaneo

Member
lol, what the hell are you talking about. If the game cost a lot to make Larian wouldnt take the deal, they would ask for more money.

This is a list of what Microsoft thought the game would cost. Larian is a private company so Microsoft wouldnt have access to financials
 

Moonjt9

Member
y4QC92F.jpg


Gamepass relies on arbitrary valuations by unknown middle men on what a game is worth. That is the revenue you will make as a developer in a subscription future and that's it

A subscription only future would be bleak for the type of breakout hit that Baldur's Gate 3 was. You can't even fund a game like this when your valuation is lower than Wreckfest 2

The service will reap all the benefit of your game being a surprise major hit while your studio makes a measly 5 million instead of hundreds of millions it would have in the buy to play model. Why ever make anything ambitious that isn't a sequel?
Been saying since forever that game pass will ruin everything in a race to the bottom. Subscriptions need massive pushback to avoid this dystopian gaming future.
 

Dacvak

No one shall be brought before our LORD David Bowie without the true and secret knowledge of the Photoshop. For in that time, so shall He appear.
I can’t tell if this post is incredibly stupid, or if I’ve just had too many whiskey sours.
 
Gamepass relies on arbitrary valuations by unknown middle men on what a game is worth. That is the revenue you will make as a developer in a subscription future and that's it

A subscription only future would be bleak for the type of breakout hit that Baldur's Gate 3 was. You can't even fund a game like this when your valuation is lower than Wreckfest 2

The service will reap all the benefit of your game being a surprise major hit while your studio makes a measly 5 million instead of hundreds of millions it would have in the buy to play model. Why ever make anything ambitious that isn't a sequel?

Too many apples and oranges in there, just like your assumptions.
 

ZehDon

Gold Member
I love this post :D

"You won't get Baldur's Gate 3 on subscription services!"
*Baldur's Gate 3 was initially created for a subscription service*
"You won't get Baldur's Gate 3 in a digital only future!"
*Baludr's Gate 3 is digital only*
"Game companies - especially indies - will lose MILLIONS thanks to subscriptions!"
*Several idie studios submitted articles in support of Game Pass thanks to the incredible success it created for them*
"Phil Spencer fucked my mum!"
*Not even your Dad would fuck your Mum*
 
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Fools idol

Banned
Larian does not need anyone other than it's loyal fans buying their games and supporting their kickstarters forever.

I suspect the industry is heading for an almighty crash soon and it certainly wont be Larian that is in trouble.
 

Robb

Gold Member
I don’t think that’s true. Those estimates were obviously set before the game exploded, and given the genre and general popularity of it a low initial number isn’t surprising at all imo. BG3 is the exception, not the rule.

The span here is huge. If consumer demand increases the number can easily go from $5M to $200M.
 
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Yoboman

Member
I don’t think that’s true. Those estimates were obviously set before the game exploded, and given the genre and general popularity of it a low initial number isn’t surprising at all imo. BG3 is the exception, not the rule.

The span here is huge. If consumer demand increases the number can easily go from $5M to $200M.
There is nothing indicating payments would scale
 
Funding a game has always been the risk the suits have to evaluate in the finance dep.
They guesstimate what something will bring and allow the budget according to these estimated finances. That's their job. They will naturally fail quite often. Overfund some stinkers and rake in more money from some unexpected hits. And of course subs can and will change that. But so did crowdfunding, where gamers themselves were asked to take that gamble, in most cases even without the potential of partaking in the profits, which always felt kinda scummy to me, a preorder deluxe model, doing financing without actually invite them to the second half of the job. Kinda like using the passionate dev gamer guy with crunch time and not compensate fairly. The honeymoon phase there is past though. With fans being more reserved and overall the attention less than at first. I guess sub services are also in the decline after the two major services are now established and prices are probably negotiated tougher now when the "frontlines" are established. I guess depending on your game contract it might be a fixed sum or you get a very small amount but for each download, maybe even for played hours, some of the engagement metrics.
I guess if you develop a game, at least AAA, you still have to relie on proper sales and subs and stuff like EGS giveaways should only be seen as bonus money.
So subs as a fundamental part of financing might more be a question for MS internally, and their day one gamble. But Sony has yet to abandon proper sales and any third party can't or shouldn't depend on this for bigger projects. But I guess that's your job as the dev to convince MS that it is worth more if you need more money upfront and want to get it from them instead of other means.
 
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Roni

Gold Member
Baldur's Gate has been a big name in RPG's for a while. What's this constant insinuation that it's a surprise hit? Baldur's Gate 2 is largely recognized as one of the best RPG's of all time. All time!
 
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Robb

Gold Member
There is nothing indicating payments would scale
These are MS estimates, of course they would scale depending on demand. Do you think the game would launch, be a humongous success and possibly the GOTY and that Larian would then accept an offer of $5M to go on GamePass? (or that MS would still think that $5M would be the correct estimation?).

What's this constant insinuation that it's a surprise hit?
For better or worse I think the main thing that matters here are sales numbers/potential engagement since you want to get people on to the service. No point in paying 200M for game that you think/know very few will play, despite whatever the critical success is.
 

Yoboman

Member
These are MS estimates, of course they would scale depending on demand. Do you think the game would launch, be a humongous success and possibly the GOTY and that Larian would then accept an offer of $5M to go on GamePass? (or that MS would still think that $5M would be the correct estimation?).


For better or worse I think the main thing that matters here are sales numbers/potential engagement since you want to get people on to the service. No point in paying 200M for game that you think/know very few will play, despite whatever the critical success is.
In a subscription based future of course it would launch on Gamepass or PS Plus or whatever future subs exist based on estimated demand by the subscription service. It's not a direct path to revenue, it's what the services guesses your games value to be

When the subs are big enough it's take it or leave it for the artists. Exactly the issue streaming services for movies and music now have
 

Robb

Gold Member
In a subscription based future of course it would launch on Gamepass or PS Plus or whatever future subs exist based on estimated demand by the subscription service. It's not a direct path to revenue, it's what the services guesses your games value to be

When the subs are big enough it's take it or leave it for the artists. Exactly the issue streaming services for movies and music now have
That’s just assuming you want to launch on a subscription service initially to begin with. Launch on Steam/digital stores, watch the game be a huge critical success with record sales for said franchise and then deal with the subscription services.
 
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