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Boogie's Pride Heavyweight GP: Final Round Preview Thread

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Boogie

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After months of anticipation, and three rounds of competition, the final round of the Pride
Heavyweight Grand Prix is finally upon us, and I’m here to give you all my preview.

Now, I probably shouldn’t be posting the preview now. The event starts in Japan in just a couple hours, but unfortunately, due to the WWE pay-per-view, it won’t air in North America until next Sunday.

So, given that, this thread will drop like a rock for the week, but I’ll just bump it again once it airs in N.A. So, I’m not sure what we should do concerning spoilers. I’ll be avoiding results until next Sunday, but if anyone wants to discuss the results here before then anybody who doesn’t want to know the results should just avoid this thread for the week.

So, uhh, without further ado, let’s start with the non-tournament fights.

Murilo Bustamante (9-3-1) vs. Nakamura (3-2)

Bustamante is a veteren fighter, a former UFC champion who has fought some of the best. He’s been on a slight downward slide lately, having lost two fights in a row, but they were to top competition in a close fight with Quinton Jackson and a knockout loss to Dan Henderson. Nakamura is fairly new to MMA, having won 3 fights against average competition, and dropped two to the smaller Nogueira brother. Bustamante is too well-rounded and experienced. Bustamante by submission, round 1.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (11-2-2) vs. Aleksander Emelianenko (3-0)

A year ago, Cro Cop looked to be unstoppable. He was knocking people out left and right, and it looked like he couldn’t be taken down. After his shocking loss to Kevin Randleman, Cro Cop’s star has fallen somewhat, and he is looking to climb again. This will be the fight that could allow him to do that, since it’s not particularly impressive to beat the Japanese Tomato Cans that Pride has been throwing at him for the past couple months. But beating Fedor’s “little” brother will likely be no small feat. He’s also new to the game, but with his champion brother as his training partner, you know he will be prepared and well-rounded. This fight is tough for me to call. I want Cro Cop to win and get back into contendership, and I think that he will rebound strongly
here and take the fight via knockout in round 1.

Wanderlei Silva (25-3-1) vs. Yuki Kondo (42-13-5)

Silva continues his reign as Pride Middleweight champion, although this is actually a non-title fight, apparently. He is undefeated in Pride, but he faces a dangerous opponent in Yuki Kondo. Kondo is a talented striker with a solid submission game. However, one disadvantage is that he will be a fair bit smaller than Silva in this fight. I’d say Kondo has a shot, but I don’t think he’ll make it happen. Silva is a violent wrecking machine, and he’ll win via TKO in round 2.



Now, for the tournament matches:

Reserve Bout:
Kevin Randleman (15-8) vs. Ron Waterman (11-2-2)

Uh-oh, two wrestlers who have been known to gas early fighting each other? I smell snooze-fest. Okay, maybe not. Randleman can be explosive when he feels like it (ie. KO-ing Cro-cop). Randleman is a much better wrestler than Waterman, being a two-time NCAA champion, and has faced much higher competition than Waterman. Waterman’s advantage is his size, as he is four inches taller, and will be around 40 pounds heavier than Randleman for the fight. That being said, I think Randleman will take it, by decision.

Heavyweight semi-final Bout #1:
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (23-2-1)vs. Sergei Kharitonov (9-0)

Nogueira, the greatest heavyweight submission fighter in the world, faces the rising, but still somewhat enigmatic Sergei Kharitonov. We know what Nogueira can do. He submits
everybody. Err, except for Fedor. And Kharitonov trains with Fedor. So, hey, maybe
Kharitonov will have what it takes too. Or not. Either way, I expect this to be a gruelling fight that leaves the victor very tired and beaten-up for the final. I personally think that Nogueira will find a way to submit Kharitonov, in round 3.

Heavyweight semi-final Bout #2:

Fedor Emelianenko (17-1) vs. Naoya Ogawa (7-0)

Fedor, the best fighter in the world, is facing Ogawa, an Olympic silver-medallist in Judo.
Despite his undefeated record, Ogawa has faced medicore to downright questionable
competition. Look, I don’t like to speculate that fights are worked, but Ogawa makes me
incredibly suspicious, based on his interviews and his fights in the tournament. At worst, he’s a coward who has worked his two fights so far in the tournament. At best, he’s a coward who has hand-picked his opponents so as to ensure his place in the final round. Whether or not it is just his pro-wrestler persona, I find Ogawa to be an arrogant prick who doesn’t deserve to be in the tournament, let alone the finals, and I can’t wait for Fedor to rearrange his face. Ogawa does have real skills, that’s for sure, but he will NOT be able to survive, let alone win, against the secret Russian military cyborg that is Fedor.

Which, if I’m right in my picks, will lead us to the Heavyweight Final Bout of:
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira

We’ve seen this one already folks. And I think it’s going to go the same way as before. That’s not to say that I think Nogueira has no chance, or that it is impossible to submit Fedor. When you’re as good as Nogueira, you’ve always got a shot at catching someone in a submission. But Fedor was amazing in their first fight at escaping submission attempts, and provided that doesn’t make him overconfident, I believe he will win again, especially considering that Nogueira may have taken much more damage in his semi-final bout than Fedor. My personal opinion is that these two fighters are much more closely matched than most think, and that if they fought a hundred times, Fedor would win about 70, and Nogueira 30, but we’ll probably know much better just how they truly stack up after this event.

So that’s it. Should be awesome.
 
This will be one of the best cards ever. Great post, Boogie. Biff's picks-

Murilo Bustamante (9-3-1) vs. Nakamura (3-2)

Busta, busta, busta. He's damn good, and brave...takes on anyone. I love this type of fighter. Sub round 1.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (11-2-2) vs. Aleksander Emelianenko (3-0)

I just read that Alek is something like 6/8. I haven't seen him fight, but I heard he is a slow, plodding fighter. I am a huge Crocop fan. I am so tired of hearing people say he's one dimensional and sucks because of it. The fact is, he is basically 1 dimensional, and he's at his best when he plays to that. He handicapped himself for a long time by depending solely on the left high kick. Where were the combos to set it up? Even worse he looked shitty against the tomato cans he fought recently. Its tme for Mirko to get his shit together and wreck Fedor's bro. I'm betting he has. Mirko by vicious KO round 2.


Wanderlei Silva (25-3-1) vs. Yuki Kondo (42-13-5)

Awesome, awesome fight. Kondo is possibly the best Japanese fighter p4p along with Kid Yamamoto and Gomi. Still, he's probably not big enough to beat Silva. People like to diss Silva and say he has a padded record. He does, yes. But, the man is a fucking animal and one of the best fighters in the history of MMA. He's wild though, and his striking probably isn't better then Yuki's. But, he has the size. The thing is, you can't really count Yuki out. This is a man who has KOed Frank Shamrock, suplexed and beaten Schilt, and done fairly well against Barnett who many see as a top 10 heavy. While the smart money is on Silva, I'm betting on Yuki to take it with a badass Flying knee in round 1. This will be a stellar fight, or at least a great KO hilite.

Kevin Randleman (15-8) vs. Ron Waterman (11-2-2)

Randleman by KO round 3. He's just a better fighter then before, even though he's lost 3 of his last 4.

Heavyweight semi-final Bout #1:
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (23-2-1)vs. Sergei Kharitonov (9-0)

Nog will win this one. He is fucking amazing, and that is all there is to it. Sergei beat the shit out of a smaller, fatter Ninja and an akward Schilt. He is tough, no doubt. But, I am not quite sold on him just yet. He may bang Nog up a bit, but I don't think its a remote possibility that Nog subs him around round 2.

Fedor Emelianenko (17-1) vs. Naoya Ogawa (7-0)

I don't like Ogawa either, and I too am suspect against his last two fights. That being said, he does have tremendous grappling skill. To bad for him this isn't a Judo match though, he would be the favorite there. Since this is MMA, Fedor will rearrange his face into a much more compact design. Fedor by severe ass kicking round 1.

Or...Fedor could carry Ogawa and do some grappling with him for the first round. I don't see this fight as being an "official" work, but at the same time I can see Fedor being urged to help Japan's top dog have a better showing then he might. Anyway you slice it, Fedor wins. Don't be surprised if he wins this one by raining down punches after Ogawa makes a fair showing with his grappling.

Just to get into a little mor eabout this. I hear Ogawa has some really great grappling skills, and despite being a silver medalist and losing to Yoshida, I've heard that some Judoka's say he is the much better Judoka. Its possible he's very good and has a legit chance of making Fedor tired. That being said, I go back to my original feeling of being suspect towards his last two fights and his sucky in ring character.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira

God damn, the two best MMA heavys in the world go at it again. Nog is definitely more damaged coming into this, as he has absorbed some punches from Sergei. Fedor on the other hand might have hurt his hand on Ogawa's face. I have to tell you, I don't think Nog has a shot. The Russian has his number. Nog is the magic man, but Fedor is to smart, to strong, and to aggressive to let Nog play his game. He won't get caught in a sub by Nog, even though it only takes one mistake. Because as good as Nog is, Fedor is better and more complete. Nog is a very tough character, and its hard imagining him being KOed. But, if he comes into this fight injured from fighting Sergei that is a very real possibility.

I'll go out on a limb and say Fedor by KO round 3.
 

Minotauro

Finds Purchase on Dog Nutz
Man, I'm so jazzed about this event.

Silve/Kondo should be an absolute war. I just rewatched Kondo's fight with Josh Barnett earlier this week and, man, that bastard has heart. Seeing him immediately bounce back after those two German suplexes was astounding!

Cro-Cop/Emelianenko should be pretty fantastic as well. Emelianenko looked solid in his last fight. In addition, I'll bet the conditioning problems he had a few fights back are a thing of the past. Now, Cro-Cop really has something to prove. I bet Emelianenko will give him a pretty strong fight but Cro-Cop probably wants this a bit more. Hopefully, a victory for him will set up Cro-Cop/Fedor sometime in the NEAR future.

As far as the tournament goes, I think it would take a disaster of Charlie proportions to prevent Fedor from winning the whole thing. Although Nog survived until decision, he was basically dominated the entire fight. A lesser man would've been knocked out after the punishment he took with Fedor in his guard. Plus, this time, they both have to get through someone else first and Fedor's task is much easier. Then again, Ogawa could always surprise a la Yoshida in the MW GP but I highly doubt it.

Either way, I'm really, really looking forward to this PPV. Oh, and, USE SPOILER TAGS IF YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED!!!!!!!!!
 
I am going to talk about the fight results right now as well as post a link to a full fight. I am using spoiler tags for the link as well as my comments. Fight will be first link (no spilers in that link, just the name of whos fighting and link), my comments will be second. If you want the fight, get it now. No telling how long the link is up.


Fantastic fight. Crocop was fucking brilliant here and looks to have returned to his old form. Although Alex is raw, he is huge and very capable. Crocop fought a near perfect fight against him. I thought he was terrific here, reversing the Sambo champions throw, peppering him with punches, and best of all waiting and setting up the high kick. Maybe Mirko's best performance.
 
And another.


I don't think I've ever insulted a fighter before. Anyway who gets in the ring ussually has part of my respect. However, Ogawa has none. He gave his arm up to avoid a serious beatdown. He should be ashamed of himself. He's a big man too, with a great background. He really didn't deserve to get this far in the GP. I wish he had never entered. Anyone else.
 

Asbel

Member
Thanks a lot Biff! The first link is dead already though.

My thoughts:
Silva/Kondo was an awesome fight. Kondo striked well but didn't seem to have the power to rock Silva, whereas Silva's striking was really sharp and just as powerful as ever. Silva just gets deadlier with each fight.
Fedor/Ogawa was just what I had expected. I hate Pride for having Ogawa but I still love Pride.
 
You are welcome, Asbel. The first link may be up later, I'm not sure.

The Mirko/Alex fight is one of my favorite MMA of all time already. Its an instant classic in my mind, because Mirko executed his gameplan so well in it. He did exactly what I thought he should do, not relying on the high kick to start the fight, but to finish. In that fight you see an awesome striking Mirko with some of his best takedown defense yet. His cross face is much better then the Waterman fight, and he actually reversed the much bigger grapplers throw. Add into that his excellent punching, kicking, and then finally putting him away with the left high kick...just brilliant.

I think it may be back up. I know right now someone is uploading the Sergei/Nog fight at a whopping 225 megs. Credit goes to the guys at Ironlife.com for making this all possible.

I agree, Silva just gets better and better. His strikes are still wild, but who cares. He's fast, and he unloads rapid, powerful shots. He's become a better puncher. I still think a good boxer like Randy Couture could beat him just because he boxes cleaner, but not as powerfully/fast.

I don't think Kondo would have beat him had their weights been the same. They didn't look that off weight wise, but Silva just looked better and dangerous. Get close to him, eat six hooks.
 

Asbel

Member
I agree, Silva just gets better and better. His strikes are still wild, but who cares. He's fast, and he unloads rapid, powerful shots. He's become a better puncher. I still think a good boxer like Randy Couture could beat him just because he boxes cleaner, but not as powerfully/fast.
Yeah, I was thinking if Silva's striking could hold up against Vitor's today and I'd still give the edge to Vitor. Silva was eating some shots from Kondo and he really wouldn't want to do that against Vitor. With Silva/Couture, I think Couture would be able to dodge inside for the clinch and takedown, then it's bjj vs wrestling. Especially if Couture is able to dodge Vitor's strikes this weekend.
 
I would favor Silva in a rematch with Vitor. I think Vitor is very smart now, getting rid of the roids and looking more like a fighter then a bodybuilder. Even though his striking is "cleaner" then Silva's, Silva is much better then he was when they first fought. He's still wild, but the mans aggressiveness is off the charts and he has the skill to back it up.

I think Randy would beat him though. As good as Silva is in the clinch, Randy is better (IMO). Really, he's taken everyone down he's put ina clinch, even much bigger heavy's. The man has real technical skill. I also Coutures stand up, while not as dynamic as men like Silva or Belfort is superior. Its smarter, shorter, and more efficient. He can box technically enough withs omeone like Belfort or Chuck and get into his clinch fairly easy. In that position, he's basically in a class of his own.

I'm very interested in how this fight between Randy and Vitor will go. Even though Vitor has made posative changes, I'm still betting on Randy.
 
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