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[jayu26]

I see some brave souls putting PS4 above Xbone. If you guys are right... Oh boy.

I'm actually more interested in holiday software numbers. I'm guessing for games like AC and COD Xbone is easily ahead. The way I see it, what really hurt Xbox was the fact that most people with both Xbone and PS4 were/are buying multiplatforms on PS4.

No problem^^

PS. I like your avatar; Best of the Worst is great to watch/listen to while playing Destiny and Far Cry^^

I choose that because it makes me smile every time I look at it.

 

[QaaQer]

She doesn't mean that literally. Basically it sells so little each month that predicting sales is kind of pointless. Prior to the Vita 2000 launch, they did stop sending units and there were <10k months.

cheers.

 

[ZhugeEX]

[XB1] 1265k
[PS4] 1090k
[WiU] 470k

 

[blakep267]

I see some brave souls putting PS4 above Xbone. If you guys are right... Oh boy.

I'm actually more interested in holiday software numbers. I'm guessing for games like AC and COD Xbone is easily ahead. The way I see it, what really hurt Xbox was the fact that most people with both Xbone and PS4 were/are buying multiplatforms on PS4.


I choose that because it makes me smile every time I look at it.

I think the software edge would be in the xb1' favor. Halo did 660k in November and most of the 3rd party stuff wasn't overwhemingly in favor of the ps4 and COD sold better on both ms platforms

 

[Ty4on]

Was there an announcement? Or did they just stop sending units?

The low sales mess up prediction ratings. Its sales have also been pretty random which I assume is because stores order very little (if any) stock. It has had several 3k months this year :S

 

[Aquamarine]

She doesn't mean that literally. Basically it sells so little each month that predicting sales is kind of pointless. Prior to the Vita 2000 launch, they did stop sending units and there were <10k months.

cheers.

The low sales mess up prediction ratings. Its sales have also been pretty random which I assume is because stores order very little (if any) stock. It has had several 3k months this year :S

we're predicting the state of the retail market.

when inventory of a neglected product is so low, its impact on the retail market accounts for little more than white noise.

the vita's official discontinuation wouldn't materially affect the usa retail market.



in 2014 (through november), a whopping 94% of sony's retail first party software revenues came from ps3 + ps4 games.

not even scea would be significantly affected by vita's official discontinuation.


so what's the point?

 

[Duxxy3]

Maybe a new SKU is coming?

Probably go back to core system only when it runs out. Just my own speculation, but I think MS is working on an XB1 slim for E3. Just going to accept the next 5 months losses at $399.

 

[kyser73]

[360] 295k
[3DS] 785k
[PS3] 95k
[PS4] 1150k
[WIU] 420k
[XB1] 1200k

 

[Chris1]

Probably go back to core system only when it runs out. Just my own speculation, but I think MS is working on an XB1 slim for E3. Just going to accept the next 5 months losses at $399.

Didn't MS say the AC bundle was only for the holidays?

I figured that would be staying to make the xbox look good at $399 but maybe not.

 

[Aquamarine]

please do not create a thread about this.


if some stupid site picks this up, do not create a thread about it.


you might think:

"but aquamarine...isn't pachter an industry insider? don't his predictions mean something?"

no. an intelligent gaffer is more well-informed.


this is why:

1) pachter conducts a variety of channel checks. he calls up a small sampling of individual stores and gets an idea of how stock sold at those particular stores. gaf has retail impressions as well, but we also have district-wide impressions. we have just as much insider insight as pachter does, if not more.

2) pachter is frequently incorrect. sometimes he's hilariously incorrect. you can't trust anything he predicts related to video games.

3) pachter conducts these predictions for fun. his real day job is to give investment advice for 10+ media companies. and yes, he is good at his actual job and he deserves every penny that he makes.



so, if you're not comfortable making a "these are aquamarine's predictions" thread, then you shouldn't feel comfortable making a "these are pachter's predictions" thread.


not to mention, those threads are pointless when we already have an ongoing npd megathread. they only serve to splinter discussion and promote low-quality "lol pachter" posts.



thank you for your time.

now, without further ado...



pachter's predictions:

xb1 - 1600k
ps4 - 1400k
wiu - 550k

 

[Maxxan]

[XB1] 1500K
[PS4] 1230K
[3DS] 660K
[WIU] 370K
[360] 270K
[PS3] 110K

 

[gtj1092]

[XB1] 1300K
[PS4] 1100K
[3DS] 590K
[WIU] 425K
[360] 300K
[PS3] 200K

 

[mejin]

[XB1] 1300k

[PS4] 1100k

[3DS] 560k

[WIU] 450k

[360] 350k

[PS3] 140k

 

[Chobel]

pachter's predictions:

xb1 - 1600k
ps4 - 1400k
wiu - 550k

These sound a bit high

 

[Fehyd]

This is more applicable towards January NPD, but distribution center has shipped out about 100 xbox one units total to 54+ stores in the last week.

Some of those look like pushes to the store and not actual replacement for sold stock.

 

[Nightengale]

This is more applicable towards January NPD, but distribution center has shipped out about 100 xbox one units total to 54+ stores in the last week.

Some of those look like pushes to the store and not actual replacement for sold stock.

Context? High/low? How's it different/same compared to normal in the context of week 1 January?

 

[Mpl90]

This is more applicable towards January NPD, but distribution center has shipped out about 100 xbox one units total to 54+ stores in the last week.

Some of those look like pushes to the store and not actual replacement for sold stock.

Isn't that...low? At least from a first look and remembering the numbers you talked about days ago. A sign that there's so much unsold stock that shipments have been reduced or what else?

 

[slavesnyder]

These sound a bit high

Amount seems high, ratio seems reasonable.

 

[Tratorn]

[XB1] 1350k
[PS4] 1150k
[3DS] 680k
[WIU] 460k
[360] 321k
[PS3] 123k

 

[RamzaIsCool]

[XB1] 1200k
[PS4] 1000k
[3DS] 700k
[WIU] 350k
[360] 300k
[PS3] 190k

 

[Isurus]

[XB1] 1325K
[PS4] 1125K
[3DS] 600K
[WIU] 350K
[360] 300K
[PS3] 125K

 

[Fehyd]

Context? High/low? How's it different/same compared to normal in the context of week 1 January?

Well that's about the same as the previous week. For reference I think that's the total xbone sales across a few states.

Don't know if this is the new "normal" for xbone yet, or if it's going to pick up a bit more once we get further from the holidays.

Should help to illustrate just how much demand has dried up since it started falling mid december.

 

[travisbickle]

[360] 280K
[3DS] 450K
[PS3] 160K
[PS4] 1100K
[WIU] 380K
[XB1] 1150K

 

[Ombala]

[360] 267K
[3DS] 678K
[PS3] 90K
[PS4] 1189
[WIU] 369K
[XB1] 1234K

 

[DrWong]

[360] 387K
[3DS] 703K
[PS3] 136K
[PS4] 992K
[WIU] 341K
[XB1] 1280K

 

[Nightengale]

Well that's about the same as the previous week. For reference I think that's the total xbone sales across a few states.

Don't know if this is the new "normal" for xbone yet, or if it's going to pick up a bit more once we get further from the holidays.

Should help to illustrate just how much demand has dried up since it started falling mid december.

Thanks for the explanation.

 

[Cornbread78]

I have a feeling XB1 ran away with it again in Dec. The question is, how much more of the gap did they chew up. Those AC bundles had such a huge effect at retail. Still surprised Sony never adjusted the PS4 price to compete with it; very confident appoach..

 

[Nightengale]

I have a feeling XB1 ran away with it again in Dec. The question is, how much more of the gap did they chew up. Those AC bundles had such a huge effect at retail. Still surprised Sony never adjusted the PS4 price to compete with it; very confident appoach..

Well, Andrew House said that US sales over the holiday actually met their internal expectations, even taking into account XB1's stiff competition, so there's that.

 

[Cornbread78]

Well, Andrew House said that US sales over the holiday actually met their internal expectations, even taking into account XB1's stiff competition, so there's that.

Yeah, that confidence definately took balls. They have a bottom line to meet and want to make sure it is a financial success.

The pick 1 bundle they did put out sold out in days (we got a ton of them) but they still couldn't keep up with the constant flow of AC bundles we received and sold.

 

[Chobel]

Yeah, that confidence definately took balls. They have a bottom line to meet and want to make sure it is a financial success.

The pick 1 bundle they did put out sold out in days (we got a ton of them) but they still couldn't keep up with the constant flow of AC bundles we received and sold.

How is XB1 doing now that the price is back to 399$?

 

[Nightengale]

I have a feeling XB1 ran away with it again in Dec. The question is, how much more of the gap did they chew up. Those AC bundles had such a huge effect at retail. Still surprised Sony never adjusted the PS4 price to compete with it; very confident appoach..

Curious to know, how's December pace of sales compared to November?

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

please do not create a thread about this.


if some stupid site picks this up, do not create a thread about it.


you might think:

"but aquamarine...isn't pachter an industry insider? don't his predictions mean something?"

no. an intelligent gaffer is more well-informed.


this is why:

1) pachter conducts a variety of channel checks. he calls up a small sampling of individual stores and gets an idea of how stock sold at those particular stores. gaf has retail impressions as well, but we also have district-wide impressions. we have just as much insider insight as pachter does, if not more.

2) pachter is frequently incorrect. sometimes he's hilariously incorrect. you can't trust anything he predicts related to video games.

3) pachter conducts these predictions for fun. his real day job is to give investment advice for 10+ media companies. and yes, he is good at his actual job and he deserves every penny that he makes.



so, if you're not comfortable making a "these are aquamarine's predictions" thread, then you shouldn't feel comfortable making a "these are pachter's predictions" thread.


not to mention, those threads are pointless when we already have an ongoing npd megathread. they only serve to splinter discussion and promote low-quality "lol pachter" posts.



thank you for your time.

now, without further ado...



pachter's predictions:

xb1 - 1600k
ps4 - 1400k
wiu - 550k

Holy moly. Was he trying to make up for under cutting September so badly? These seem too high for only the second December...

 

[Welfare]

Holy moly. Was he trying to make up for under cutting September so badly? These seem too high for only the second December...

Seeing how the Xbox One performed this past November, it's not much of a stretch to assume an even higher number.

That PS4 prediction just seems too big. An almost 70% increase from November? I don't see that happening.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Well that's about the same as the previous week. For reference I think that's the total xbone sales across a few states.

Don't know if this is the new "normal" for xbone yet, or if it's going to pick up a bit more once we get further from the holidays.

Should help to illustrate just how much demand has dried up since it started falling mid december.

Thanks again for the insight^^ I do not want to press you for information you are not willing to give, but if possible, can you tell us how the PS4 is restocking in comparison? I know that is really a January predictions thread topic, but I always like to be prepared when possible^^

 

[Javin98]

please do not create a thread about this.


if some stupid site picks this up, do not create a thread about it.


you might think:

"but aquamarine...isn't pachter an industry insider? don't his predictions mean something?"

no. an intelligent gaffer is more well-informed.


this is why:

1) pachter conducts a variety of channel checks. he calls up a small sampling of individual stores and gets an idea of how stock sold at those particular stores. gaf has retail impressions as well, but we also have district-wide impressions. we have just as much insider insight as pachter does, if not more.

2) pachter is frequently incorrect. sometimes he's hilariously incorrect. you can't trust anything he predicts related to video games.

3) pachter conducts these predictions for fun. his real day job is to give investment advice for 10+ media companies. and yes, he is good at his actual job and he deserves every penny that he makes.



so, if you're not comfortable making a "these are aquamarine's predictions" thread, then you shouldn't feel comfortable making a "these are pachter's predictions" thread.


not to mention, those threads are pointless when we already have an ongoing npd megathread. they only serve to splinter discussion and promote low-quality "lol pachter" posts.



thank you for your time.

now, without further ado...



pachter's predictions:

xb1 - 1600k
ps4 - 1400k
wiu - 550k

Wow, Patcher actually predicts much higher sales for the XBox One in December? 1600K seems like a bit of a stretch to me. 1300K is the maximum number the X1 could do in December IMO unless it does some crazy numbers again. BTW, has Patcher actually predicted a PS4 win at all? I remember back in September he predicted a X1 win despite being one of the biggest months for the PS4 and calling others fanboys.

For what it's worth, Aquamarine, I trust your predictions a lot more than Patcher's.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Seeing how the Xbox One performed this past November, it's not much of a stretch to assume an even higher number.

That PS4 prediction just seems too big. An almost 70% increase from November? I don't see that happening.

Well, just think about the Xbox1's performance until now; 1600K is as much as January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, and September combined (NPD, US only). Even with the great December deals, that would be fairly unconventional, no?^^

 

[ekim]

[360] 310K
[3DS] 801K
[PS3] 189K
[PS4] 1100K
[WIU] 211K
[XB1] 1200K

 

[JaggedSac]

Well that's about the same as the previous week. For reference I think that's the total xbone sales across a few states.

Don't know if this is the new "normal" for xbone yet, or if it's going to pick up a bit more once we get further from the holidays.

Should help to illustrate just how much demand has dried up since it started falling mid december.

Goodness, that does not seem good.

 

[Welfare]

Well, just think about the Xbox1's performance until now; 1600K is as much as January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, and September combined (NPD, US only). Even with the great December deals, that would be fairly unconventional, no?^^

Well 1230k is as much as January, February, March, April, May, June, and July! Before Novembers NPD, if someone told you that the Xbox One would sell that much in one month, you would think that was unconventional, but look, it did happen.

Microsoft clearly put more attention to the holiday season in 2014 than the other 3 quarters.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Well 1230k is as much as January, February, March, April, May, June, and July! Before Novembers NPD, if someone told you that the Xbox One would sell that much in one month, you would think that was unconventional, but look, it did happen.

Microsoft clearly put more attention to the holiday season in 2014 than the other 3 quarters.

But isn't the retail insight that demand slowed as December went on? To sell that many units in early December... seems unlikely, I guess. As you can surmise from my prediction being lower^^&#12619;&#12619; Is Patcher's number the highest we have for both?

 

[Blanquito]

This is more applicable towards January NPD, but distribution center has shipped out about 100 xbox one units total to 54+ stores in the last week.

Some of those look like pushes to the store and not actual replacement for sold stock.

Wow, that's drying up all right.

Anyway, I think Xbox won December.

 

[Welfare]

But isn't the retail insight that demand slowed as December went on? To sell that many units in early December... seems unlikely, I guess. As you can surmise from my prediction being lower^^&#12619;&#12619; Is Patcher's number the highest we have for both?

Oh yeah. I don't personally seeing it hitting 1600k, just saying that it could potentially happen. Pretty sure Patcher has the highest PS4 prediction, but I don't know about the Xbox One.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Wow, that's drying up all right.

Anyway, I think Xbox won December.

Agreed, on both statements. But it is kind of mind boggling that they have their best performance in years and they still over shipped. How many did they realistically expect to sell this holiday?

 

[Fehyd]

Thanks again for the insight^^ I do not want to press you for information you are not willing to give, but if possible, can you tell us how the PS4 is restocking in comparison? I know that is really a January predictions thread topic, but I always like to be prepared when possible^^

I don't have the earlier figures for ps4, but either Sony shipped just enough for they did slightly better than anticipated. A lot of stores have 1 or none available for sale.

About 250 ps4s sitting unsold in store across the same number of stores. 0 in the distribution center.

Over 3500 xbones sitting in stores unsold. Over 3000 in distribution center.

 

[jryi]

Still surprised Sony never adjusted the PS4 price to compete with it; very confident appoach..

Well, it's like in sports: if you want to win, you concentrate on your own play, not on the opponent's. If you start playing the competitor's game, you will lose.

Sony had their own targets, they hit them and were happy. They were not distracted by MS's scrambling.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

I don't have the earlier figures for ps4, but either Sony shipped just enough for they did slightly better than anticipated. A lot of stores have 1 or none available for sale.

About 250 ps4s sitting unsold in store across the same number of stores. 0 in the distribution center.

Over 3500 xbones sitting in stores unsold. Over 3000 in distribution center.

Appreciated^^ I will reiterate my confusion over how many of these boxes Microsoft thought they where going to sell...

 

[Dragonborn]

Well, it's like in sports: if you want to win, you concentrate on your own play, not on the opponent's. If you start playing the competitor's game, you will lose.

Sony had their own targets, they hit them and were happy. They were not distracted by MS's scrambling.

Especially because is means they can still play their price cut card. Say MS drops to $299, then Sony drops too. MS ends up right back on square one, having to drop the price even more and loose more money. Sony is in complete control

 

[Cornbread78]

Ugghh, morning conference calls are the worst....

How is XB1 doing now that the price is back to 399$?

It's hard to tell right now because it is always slow this time of year until the Income Tax checks start rolling in... Aside from that MS is still ahead because of the bundles; we are still selling a MCC bundle as well as an AC bundle, which both show good value for consumers <free game(s).>

I'd like to see the numbers once it's apples to apples again at non-bundles $399 price point.

Curious to know, how's December pace of sales compared to November?

December was REALLY busy. What hurt the PS4 in our store is the fact we completely sold out of stock the week before Christmas, but we continued to have a ton of those AC bundles in stock. I would put console sales much higher in 2014 much higher than 2013 just because the consoles were actually in-stock this year. But yeah, MS definately made sure teh store had plenty of XB1 bundles available.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

[360] 500K
[3DS] 800K
[PS3] 110K
[PS4] 1500K
[WIU] 400K
[XB1] 1700K

 

[Death2494]

Seeing how the Xbox One performed this past November, it's not much of a stretch to assume an even higher number.

That PS4 prediction just seems too big. An almost 70% increase from November? I don't see that happening.

Walmart PS4 sale $330.00
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/get-a-ps4-for-330-from-walmart/1100-6424347/
I'm sure this is being overlooked