Conveniently, you are ignoring that Sony still felt they could hit their target before Spider-Man 2 released, meaning that they thought Spider-Man 2 could get them over the hump. It didn't. That tells you everything you need to know about what their expectations for the game was.
There's nothing convenient.
It's the simple truth.
Sony admitted in financial results that they were behind target in their first two quarters and right before the holiday season they already issued the warning flag that reaching the 25m target would be really difficult.
You don't cut a forecast until you're put against evidence it's impossible to achieve it, that's common business practice, and you get that evidence after the biggest quarter of the year.
For some reasons you want to blame Spiderman 2 for the missed target but this is just in your mind and it doesn't stand in reality.
The target wasn't met because it was misguided since the beginning, it assumed demand would stay at the January-March 2023 levels and it simply didn't because that kind of demand was a temporary effect of previous shortages and their inability to cut the price of the system permanently, damaged sales during the holiday season, instead of having the disc version at 399$ as it should at this point they increased the price on the digital, that's not how you create demand after 4 years, they completely wasted the opportunity to capitalize on a Slim model.
Spiderman 2 saved their ass in this situation.