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Japan's population to shrink by a third by 2065

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1

1st Course

Member
system11 said:
This is on the same level, if not worse than climate change denial.
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Not even remotely close.

Steejee said:
Except there is? Carrying capacity is not 'how many people can you squeeze into a location' or where there's free space to put houses, it's how many human beings the planet can support at current consumption levels. The answer to that varies by baseline, and resource (some resources renew, some don't) but as it is our current world population is consuming way more than the Earth can provide year to year, and have made few gains in reversing that trend. Yeah there's a lot of unused space on the planet, but a lot of that space isn't particularly usable to begin with.

It's a two fold problem because post-industrial nations are huge resource consumers, using up more per capita and overall than developing nations (not you China, don't play the "We're still developing!" card). While those developing nations have much higher population growth, that growth is lower impact than the existing populations in places like the USA. One American kid has a much larger impact than one in a developing nation. The big "BUT!" is that those same developing nations also work to improve living standards (as they should), and as standards go up in most cases consumption skyrockets as well.

So we're already stuck with a world population that can't all live at USA standards, but where everyone wants to live by those standards, and we're not moving fast enough to make the standards we aspire to sustainable.
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Dude 70% of the planet is water. Water literally cost companies nothing to extract, just google bottled water mark up.

We will never ever run out of water, and as long as we have water we can farm.

As for energy even ignoring renewable energy, we will never run out of finite energy anytime soon. We didn't even hit "peak oil" yet, something that was supposed to happen years ago. Newest EIA estimate see peak oil not happening till 2040+.
 
T

tokkun

Member
Steejee said:
Except there is? Carrying capacity is not 'how many people can you squeeze into a location' or where there's free space to put houses, it's how many human beings the planet can support at current consumption levels. The answer to that varies by baseline, and resource (some resources renew, some don't) but as it is our current world population is consuming way more than the Earth can provide year to year, and have made few gains in reversing that trend. Yeah there's a lot of unused space on the planet, but a lot of that space isn't particularly usable to begin with.

It's a two fold problem because post-industrial nations are huge resource consumers, using up more per capita and overall than developing nations (not you China, don't play the "We're still developing!" card). While those developing nations have much higher population growth, that growth is lower impact than the existing populations in places like the USA. One American kid has a much larger impact than one in a developing nation. The big "BUT!" is that those same developing nations also work to improve living standards (as they should), and as standards go up in most cases consumption skyrockets as well.

So we're already stuck with a world population that can't all live at USA standards, but where everyone wants to live by those standards, and we're not moving fast enough to make the standards we aspire to sustainable.
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This exact same argument was made over 200 years ago to say that we were near peak population. At that time, the purported constraint was on the amount of food production the planet could sustain. Well, obviously that turned out to be bunk. The reason was that the people making the dire predictions about what consumption level the world could sustain were unable to predict technological advancements that vastly improved crop yields.
 
M

mantidor

Member
Immigration isn't going to help anything, Japanese don't want to have children because it's simply not viable. Isn't it absurdly expensive to raise a child in Japan? with the added problem that having both a kid and a job is basically impossible? The situation is specially crappy for women.

Edit: and now I've seen it has been discussed to death in the thread. Carry on.
 
Blueingreen

Blueingreen

Member
1st Course said:
Not even remotely close.



Dude 70% of the planet is water. Water literally cost companies nothing to extract, just google bottled water mark up.

We will never ever run out of water, and as long as we have water we can farm.

As for energy even ignoring renewable energy, we will never run out of finite energy anytime soon. We didn't even hit "peak oil" yet, something that was supposed to happen years ago. Newest EIA estimate see peak oil not happening till 2040+.
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70% of the planet is water but less than 3% of that is adequate for human consumption, the world water shortage is a real issue and you only have to look at the wealthiest and most populous state of the wealthiest nation on earth for a basic understanding of how catastrophic this going be especially for developing nations.
 
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TatteredHat

Member
Until they fix their fucked up "live for your job" culture I doubt even immigration would solve the problem. Immigrants would just get dragged into the 14 hour workday grind as well.
 
M

mantidor

Member
Lovely Salsa said:
I dont see the big deal. The island is overpopulated as it is
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It's not evenly distributed, there's going to get to a point where retired people outnumber working people and that is unsustainable.

This might seem extremely anecdotal and overly simplified, but I saw why this is a problem when playing city builders, and how a drop in your working population is catastrophic for your production, services and overall economy.
 
P

PdotMichael

Banned
mantidor said:
It's not evenly distributed, there's going to get to a point where retired people outnumber working people and that is unsustainable.

This might seem extremely anecdotal and overly simplified, but I saw why this is a problem when playing city builders, and how a drop in your working population is catastrophic for your production, services and overall economy.
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Again, it's all about the productivity of the work force, which increased massively in the past 60 years.
Never in history were so few people capable of providing support to more people.

Mass immigration or suddenly icrease of the birth rate aren't gonna happen so Japan and many other countries are plain forced to look for alternative concept for future societies.
 
S

Steejee

Member
1st Course said:
Dude 70% of the planet is water. Water literally cost companies nothing to extract, just google bottled water mark up.

We will never ever run out of water, and as long as we have water we can farm. As for energy even ignoring renewable energy, we will never run out of finite energy anytime soon. We didn't even hit "peak oil" yet, something that was supposed to happen years ago. Newest EIA estimate see peak oil not happening till 2040+.
Click to expand...

tokkun said:
This exact same argument was made over 200 years ago to say that we were near peak population. At that time, the purported constraint was on the amount of food production the planet could sustain. Well, obviously that turned out to be bunk. The reason was that the people making the dire predictions about what consumption level the world could sustain were unable to predict technological advancements that vastly improved crop yields.
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I'm not really sure what either of your points are.

Most of the planet is *salt* water, making it usable is resource intensive. Don't know what bottled water has to do with any of this (aside from the waste of resources it is). Also, there's a lot of land out there that's not really farmable even if you did flood it with fresh water.

Peak oil was based around known reserves and without being concerned with climate change. We could use oil for a long while longer, but we shouldn't - using up all known reserves would be catastrophic for the environment.

Malthus didn't predict the creation of man made fertilizer - so? He was talking about famine, not climate change, ocean acidification, or mass extinctions, all things we contribute to with our current population and consumption levels. Relying on future technological advances to fix current problems is a foolish thing to do.
 
A

Alex_Mexico

Member
Not working 12 hour Mon-Sat days as a norm would go a long way towards giving your population time to get married and raise a family!
 
A

Alex_Mexico

Member
sirap said:
I'm watching my best-friend slowly lose his mind working in Japan. The hours are insane, the expectations are ludicrous and the inability to make any real difference in the company because of xenophobia and bureaucracy is frustrating.

It's no wonder marriages are failing and young adults are opting out of starting families.
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Could you explain this situation more? Like how many hours are you talking about? Where is your friend from?
 
P

PdotMichael

Banned
Vitten said:
Wouldn't it actually be a good thing for our planet if global population shrank by a third ?
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Well, the last time something like that happened in Europe (Black Death) it was followed by radical social and technical innovations.

Humanity will adapt anyway.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
TatteredHat said:
Until they fix their fucked up "live for your job" culture I doubt even immigration would solve the problem. Immigrants would just get dragged into the 14 hour workday grind as well.
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It's going to be tough. The culture has a long history of valuing "time spent doing something" over "quality of results." It's really in just about every facet of the culture. Combine that with the group mentality in which individuality is not particularly appreciated and you have an atmosphere where becoming a faceless drone is the path of least resistance in society.

Lovely Salsa said:
I dont see the big deal. The island is overpopulated as it is
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Luckily, Japan is not just one island!
 
Y

yanipheonu

Member
I've heard that an inevitable outcome of our growing population is that we'll start having less kids and population growth may eventually level off.

I do wonder if Japan is going through what other countries will be in the near future.
 
Zoe

Zoe

Member
Darknight said:
So why is Japan Xenophobic? This is 2017, the fuck? Welcome immigrants and people all over the world already.
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They want foreigners to speak the language perfectly and fully adapt to the local culture.

I wouldn't necessarily call that xenophobia, but the hurdle is way too high for most people.
 
W

Wheatly

Member
sprsk said:
It's a thread about Japan and their problems with a declining population, partially due to xenophobia and a stubbornly warped national identity.
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Because its a thread about Japan, I can't inquire about the hyperbole behind some of the comments?
 
E

Einchy

semen stains the mountaintops
Zaru said:
tzL8Eso.jpg


I think this picture of Greater Tokyo speaks for itself
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Great picture, reminds me of this one from Mexico City.
xGSydxY.jpg


I couldn't imagine living in such a crowded place.
Wheatly said:
Because its a thread about Japan, I can't inquire about the hyperbole behind some of the comments?
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How is this hyperbolic?
Darknight said:
So why is Japan Xenophobic? This is 2017, the fuck? Welcome immigrants and people all over the world already.
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W

Wheatly

Member
Einchy said:
How is this hyperbolic?
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Do I really need to explain it? According to his comment, how can a country be xenophobic (in 2017 no less)!

I've read enough of these to know its on the same wavelength of BS like comments that infer that their culture is "the most racist" and "rapey"
 
E

Etrian Oddity

Member
Zoe said:
They want foreigners to speak the language perfectly and fully adapt to the local culture.

I wouldn't necessarily call that xenophobia, but the hurdle is way too high for most people.
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Let's not pretend their immigration process and laws are not in fact utterly ridiculous and overly strict.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Wheatly said:
Do I really need to explain it? According to his comment, how can a country be xenophobic (in 2017 no less)!
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Japan has a variety of laws that make it difficult to immigrate, and a culture that is frequently hostile to foreigners. These, combined, are xenophobic. This is a thread about Japanese depopulation. Many OECD countries have negative net birth rates, but keep stable or growing populations through immigration. Because Japan resists this, due primarily to xenophobic reasons, Japanese depopulation is a problem. It is a bigger problem because Japan has an unusually low birth rate even relative to its peers, but it could solve this by loosening immigration laws and being a more welcoming country. Instead, it does not. This is literally what we are discussing.
 
C

clav

Member
Other places like South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Poland have lower birth rates than Japan's.
 
E

elrechazado

Banned
tokkun said:
This exact same argument was made over 200 years ago to say that we were near peak population. At that time, the purported constraint was on the amount of food production the planet could sustain. Well, obviously that turned out to be bunk. The reason was that the people making the dire predictions about what consumption level the world could sustain were unable to predict technological advancements that vastly improved crop yields.
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But it's different this time.


Said every malthusian ever.
 
C

Crayons

Banned
BudokaiMR2 said:
Make sure it's Kyoto for sure. Tokyo and Osaka are fucked long term thanks to being coastal cities. I'm starting to think about buying a house there and commuting.
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I wanna retire in Kyoto! I already speak Japanese. Would be nice if by the time I retire in 50 years I can afford to buy a house in Kyoto because everyone's dead
 
L

Laevateinn

Member
Stumpokapow said:
Japan has a variety of laws that make it difficult to immigrate, and a culture that is frequently hostile to foreigners. These, combined, are xenophobic. This is a thread about Japanese depopulation. Many OECD countries have negative net birth rates, but keep stable or growing populations through immigration. Because Japan resists this, due primarily to xenophobic reasons, Japanese depopulation is a problem. It is a bigger problem because Japan has an unusually low birth rate even relative to its peers, but it could solve this by loosening immigration laws and being a more welcoming country. Instead, it does not. This is literally what we are discussing.
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Japan should also try to raise wages and enforce a 40 hour work week. Why would anyone with an education or skills want to move there for poor work life balance and half the pay?
 
S

SwolBro

Banned
claviertekky said:
Other places like South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Poland have lower birth rates than Japan's.
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Good, and every other country should follow. Stop having too many children. Let the earth chill out for a little =D

We take up too much space and look what we're doing with the place.
 
S

Sage00

Once And Future Member
Laevateinn said:
Japan should also try to raise wages and enforce a 40 hour work week. Why would anyone with an education or skills want to move there for poor work life balance and half the pay?
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Err.. I think you may misunderstand who the immigrants that keep the population growth of other countries positive are. This isn't about making it attractive for Americans or Western Europeans to move to Japan lol. Japan also doesn't need your skills. They have enough.

Actual economic migrants would cut off their left arm to get from the conditions of South and Central Asia to Japan. They'd quadruple their salary.

Along with that they'd quadruple the amount of garbage in the streets, crime, homeless, etc though. Pick your poison.
 
E

elrechazado

Banned
Sage00 said:
Err.. I think you may misunderstand who the immigrants that keep the population growth of other countries positive are. This isn't about making it attractive for Americans or Western Europeans to move to Japan lol.

Actual economic migrants would cut off their left arm to get from the conditions of South and Central Asia to Japan. They'd quadruple their salary.

Along with that they'd quadruple the amount of garbage in the streets, crime, homeless, etc though. Pick your poison.
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Immigration= dirty criminals?
 
S

Sage00

Once And Future Member
elrechazado said:
Immigration= dirty criminals?
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Here we go..

No? Immigration = normal people

Japan currently operates in a bizarre bubble below average in areas such as those mentioned above, due to its largely homogenous population. Pop that bubble and it will even out to the world average.

That is not an argument remotely similar to that against immigration in Europe or America, sorry (which it's ridiculous to oppose). So drop that.
 
W

wandering

Banned
yanipheonu said:
I've heard that an inevitable outcome of our growing population is that we'll start having less kids and population growth may eventually level off.

I do wonder if Japan is going through what other countries will be in the near future.
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It's already happening across the world.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?end=2015&start=2015&view=map

Many countries in Europe have birth rates quite similar to Japan, and the birth rate in the United States has been dropping dramatically. In fact, pretty much the entirety of the Western world is at sub-replacement fertility.
 
N

Nephtis

Member
Sage00 said:
Err.. I think you may misunderstand who the immigrants that keep the population growth of other countries positive are. This isn't about making it attractive for Americans or Western Europeans to move to Japan lol. Japan also doesn't need your skills. They have enough.

Actual economic migrants would cut off their left arm to get from the conditions of South and Central Asia to Japan. They'd quadruple their salary.

Along with that they'd quadruple the amount of garbage in the streets, crime, homeless, etc though. Pick your poison.
Click to expand...

I wonder though, if Japan would enforce a 40 hour work week instead of the shitshow they have for work-life balance, I imagine their population problem wouldn't be as bad as it is now.
 
S

Sage00

Once And Future Member
Nephtis said:
I wonder though, if Japan would enforce a 40 hour work week instead of the shitshow they have for work-life balance, I imagine their population problem wouldn't be as bad as it is now.
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Places like the UK and Germany which have much better working conditions have a similarly ageing, shrinking 'native' population though, so I don't think so. This is just a fairly normal thing for a developed country to experience.

The difference there is those countries can top-up their growth through immigration.
 
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