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[AHA-Lambda]

FF15 is going to be very, very interesting to watch.

Personally speaking I don't have high hopes for it's sales potential, I think it's not going to gain much traction beyond the core FF base, and with declining AAA sales throughout the industry right now I just don't think that's going to be enough.
I think that game is going to be in for a rough time at market.

As far as I know, Activision hasn't released any press releases about Infinite Warfare being the "Biggest Entertainment Launch of the Year." I think that's a pretty big red flag.

oh yeah, fair point =/

 

[Schlorgan]

I think if you look at the PAL thread you will find a press statement saying they are the best selling FPS game this year LAUNCH ALIGNED.

What does that even mean? For real, though, that phrase goes right over my head.

FF15 is going to be very, very interesting to watch.

Personally speaking I don't have high hopes for it's sales potential, I think it's not going to gain much traction beyond the core FF base, and with declining AAA sales throughout I don't think that's going to be enough.

I think Last Guardian will be more interesting to watch.

 

[Silent Chief]

You have to include the 360 when looking at Xbox Tomb Raider sales.

120K is actually pretty good. People who cared would have bought an other version by now and people who mostly care will wait for the price to drop.

You don't make something a time exclusive to increase your sales down the road. You do it to cash on. Did Microsoft pay them enough to offset the loss of over $100 million in sales?

 

[Daeoc]

Bunch of reasons listed as to why this happened, but personally, I'm still playing Overwatch, and won't pay full price for another multiplayer heavy game anytime soon. I did get Rise of the Tomb Raider but that was on PC awhile ago, and I do have Gears 4 but I split the cost with a friend.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Absolutely not a single bit of this is surprising. I do think it speaks a bit to an overall market trend but I think it says a lot more about those games and the business decisions surrounding them.

 

[Primethius]

The reality to me is that the dedicated console base is just more hardcore than ever and plays games for longer, buys dlc, and gets new software at cheaper prices. This is a result of the dedicated gaming audience shrinking. Anihawk is totally right. It's not a supply issue. It's demand.

Asscrud bombing last year was a HUGE red flag. I guess I didn't think about it!

Just anecdotally, I've found this to be the case with me and my group of friends.

Got R6: Siege, don't really need another shooter. That's a smaller scale game as well in sales relatively.

I'm sure stuff like Destiny, GTAV have a huge impact on relevant genre games.

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

This time of year feels way too loaded and why buy a game new at full retail price when you're probably not going to get to it any time soon or you know there's something else coming out soon that you want to play more? There's not enough time to play everything even if you have no life and can spend all day at home playing games. Then you have games that were released years ago that can still dominate people's time.

I wonder how many people today have backlogs of various sizes compared to 10-15 years ago.

 

[tci]

This is most likely a result of that the market have changed. Not only is there insanely many games out there. The minority of them are AAA titles. Also people's habits are changing., and many use their time on their phone instead. I rarely buy games anymore because I can see that everything is the same. Maybe other people have noticed? It is about time if that is the case.

Games have been using a formula for many years now. Innovation have not happened in the AAA space in many years. This is only happening in the indie space atm.

The price of games have also been heavily influenced sales I can imagine. Why should most people spend $60 + on a game, when they can get the same entertainment on a mobile game for less than $10? Publishers own selfishness and greed have lead to this. Times are changing.

In addition releasing games on a set holiday date is idiotic. It will always sacrifice quality. What happened to "when it's done". Another thing i feel are affecting games too much is target audience.

Hopefully the publishers gets a wakeup call, and actually realizing this issue.

 

[RedToad64]

I am expecting Watch Dogs 2 to do just as poorly as some of these other big names.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

I think Last Guardian will be more interesting to watch.

I think TLG is a forgone conclusion that it will flop. It's all dependent on Sony's expectations from there.

 

[Schlorgan]

I think TLG is a forgone conclusion that it will flop. It's all dependent on Sony's expectations from there.

The NPD thread for next month will be glorious to behold.

 

[Exploratory]

Seemingly people have ignored the past decade. We've always had tons of games this time of year. There's a reason for that it's because historically buy now. The fact that we have this many good games doing this poorly...people who aren't worried are either not looking at the full picture or are fooling themselves.

 

[Kill3r7]

What does that even mean? For real, that phrase goes right over my head.



I think Last Guardian will be more interesting to watch.

If you line up the release date, COD is ahead of BF1. In other words, although BF1 might be ahead of IW right now it is so because they came out first.

 

[GhostRidah]

Cant speak for anyone else but with so many games coming out within a short window next to each other, I have just been waiting on sales. Yesterday I picked up Titanfall 2 for $33, waiting on a BF1 sale and then FFXV is coming. So a reason could be that consumers are getting smarter and just waiting for price drops, especially around black friday.

 

[AniHawk]

What ??
Sony knew what they were doing .
There is reason why they bought a online streaming game service .
But that going to take years so they will still use the old way more for now.
PS will be a service is just a question of when the internet will catch up and when it make no more sense to sell hardware .

ps vr, ps now, ps4 pro, and normal ps4 are so separate from each other in terms of messaging i don't even understand how they could all come from the same company. it's just a bunch of different groups trying to prove themselves from what it seems.

and ps now really has to grow a lot more. going to pc is a great idea, but whatever the hell ps now is and how it works needs to be bigger than ps3 games.

 

[Mooreberg]

The October-November pileup has been an issue for well over a decade but it never stopped the major AAA games from being huge sellers even if it squeezed out the smaller games.

There is something else going on here other than just release date collisions.

It begs the question though - in an era where known quantities like GTA, Uncharted, Farcry, etc are releasing outside of October and November, why in the hell are games like Titanfall 2 or Dishonored 2 coming out right now? TF2's reach was always going to be inhibited by the bigger shooters, and I don't remember the first Dishonored setting NPD on fire. There is a bizarre sort of unearned confidence surrounding these franchises without established track records for selling well in crowded release windows.

Watch Dogs 2 could end up in the same boat. The first game did not have nearly as much competition, and a lot more enthusiasm prior to the downgrade controversises.

 

[Ridley327]

I think TLG is a forgone conclusion that it will flop. It's all dependent on Sony's expectations from there.

If what they've been saying is true, then it really didn't cost that much to make, despite the protracted development. It has zero hope of breaking out, but I can't imagine that Sony is going to be disappointed when it sells what it sells. Gravity Rush 2 will probably be the same way, though that seems more accidentally malicious with how badly SIEA has handled that series compared to the other regions.

 

[meerak]

Who really expected all these games to do well...

 

[jelly]

So do people have more distractions like phones, TV, Internet and games as a service are sucking their time and money leaving less room for more games?

You're either the hot thing or nothing and when your games cost a fortune that isn't good when you get ignored.

Do we need more mid tier experiences that aren't games as a service but just affordable entertainment ?

 

[Kill3r7]

This is most likely a result of that the market have changed. Not only is there insanely many games out there. The minority of them are AAA titles. Also people's habits are changing., and many use their time on their phone instead. I rarely buy games anymore because I can see that everything is the same. Maybe other people have noticed? It is about time if that is the case.

Games have been using a formula for many years now. Innovation have not happened in the AAA space in many years. This is only happening in the indie space atm.

The price of games have also been heavily influenced sales I can imagine. Why should most people spend $60 + on a game, when they can get the same entertainment on a mobile game for less than $10? Publishers own selfishness and greed have lead to this. Times are changing.

In addition releasing games on a set holiday date is idiotic. It will always sacrifice quality. What happened to "when it's done". Another thing i feel are affecting games to much is target audience.

Hopefully the publishers gets a wakeup call, and actually realizing this issue.

I will try not to make the same mistake here in my phrasing as I did in the NPD thread, but if the premise of your argument is that people are gaming on phones and other devices than why are the current gen consoles still outpacing last gen sans WiiU? In other words, why are people buying these consoles? What are they playing?

 

[J_Viper]

Is this the second time ROTTR flopped?

Damn.

Even Battleborn only bombed once.

 

[AniHawk]

First thing these publishers need to stop cramming every damn thing into the last 3 months of the year.

Sony has had no issues doing this with their first party offerings and see it pay off. A lot of games could release in the dead summer months and they would sell just fine.

that's a problem, but summer was a fucking desert in the us this year in terms of sales. perhaps part of the problem is that there is variety, but it's not being promoted by platform manufacturers in a meaningful way.

 

[Schlorgan]

I will try not to make the same mistake here in my phrasing as I did in the NPD thread, but if the premise of your argument is that people are gaming on phones and other devices than why are the current gen consoles still outpacing last gen sans WiiU? In other words, why are people buying these consoles? What are they playing?

UHD Blu-ray discs.

Spoiler

/s

Game makers need to do something. The answer to get mainstream people back in wasn't VR. The hottest game item of Christmas is the Mini NES which has 20 year old games on it.

So they should pander to nostalgia more?

Spoiler

also /s

 

[BigEmil]

I'm done with buying fps games

 

[FriedConsole]

Game makers need to do something. The answer to get mainstream people back in wasn't VR. The hottest game item of Christmas is the Mini NES which has 20 year old games on it.

 

[Floody]

I think a big reason sales are down is all the new hardware too, sure all the Destinys, GTA Onlines and Overwatches taking a good chunk of consumers isn't helping, but I think stuff like people saving up/buying a PS4 Pros, PSVRs, XB1s, PC parts, new 4K TVs, and other equipment for thoses devices (headsets, controllers, whatever else) hasn't helped either. Publishers should be worried though, there's only so many times you can sell someone a very similar product until the realize and decide to just skip this year's version.

 

[anothertech]

I think Titanfall2 will have legs. That was based on 3 days of October sales I think?

It was the best reviewed shooter for good reason.

Definitely a release date hell for Respawn though. All the missed preorders opportunity when they have to choose between BF1 and COD.

They literally could have released it a month later.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

ps vr, ps now, ps4 pro, and normal ps4 are so separate from each other in terms of messaging i don't even understand how they could all come from the same company. it's just a bunch of different groups trying to prove themselves from what it seems.

and ps now really has to grow a lot more. going to pc is a great idea, but whatever the hell ps now is and how it works needs to be bigger than ps3 games.

I really don't see how those thing you list seem to be so separate to you .
There all hardware for certain sections of the market .

Also PS now will get bigger but Sony not going to risk hurting PS4 sales .
With a service that going to take years to catch on because of certain factors .

 

[takoyaki]

Watch Dogs 2 and Titanfall 2 are both better than Far Cry Primal. The three games you listed ranged from above average to below average.

Sure, but the quality of a game is not the only factor that determines its sales. Those 3 games were just examples of games where people liked the previous installments that still disappointed sales-wise on day one this year. Since there are no reviews available during the pre-order period, the quality of the previous game and marketing will play a big role in getting people excited for the next one.

I just think that there's a real lack of excitement for sequels this year and that people want "something new" more than "more of the same". Even if those sequels are objectively better games.

 

[Jawmuncher]

Final Fantasy XV in this current climate is probably praying that it can muster 1 million for launch week. 13 apparently did 1,501,964 it's first week. Will see if the long wait has people clamoring and jumping in more. The date I feel is it's biggest threat. Everyone is done shopping at that point.

 

[spwolf]

This "release schedule is too crowded" thing is denial to me. We've had this issue for a hundred years. Only now is such a large percentage of aaa flopping. Reality is games as a service and mobile are taking over. Why buy tf2 when I play destiny two hours a day? Why buy bad Ubivendi game 4.0 now with new hat when I can play other soul sucking bad stuff on phone?

so how come people paid 31% more for console games this october vs last?

Console software October 2016: $505.7 million (up 31 percent YOY) October 2015: $384.8 million

October 2016 has been a record month for gaming industry. Retail is mostly about AAA games too, and with recent digital sales % info showing its rise, real software spend has likely been one of the best in the history.

We can look at it this way - this month retail gaming industry has overtaken box office receipts for the month. Good times to be a gamer.

AAA will adapt, as always... things like BF1 sold crazy, they will find ways to replicate the success.

 

[Zushin]

This makes games like Dark Souls extra impressive sales wise in my opinion. They sell their couple of million earlier in the year which I'm sure Namco is happy with, with a much lower budget.

I'm interested to see how the next say, Wolfenstein sells. Bethesda would hopefully try to sell in May again I'd imagine. The first looks to have sold decently and while critical reception wasn't great, it had an extremely positive word of mouth which I think could propel it somewhat.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

It begs the question though - in an era where known quantities like GTA, Uncharted, Farcry, etc are releasing outside of October and November, why in the hell are games like Titanfall 2 or Dishonored 2 coming out right now? TF2's reach was always going to be inhibited by the bigger shooters, and I don't remember the first Dishonored setting NPD on fire. There is a bizarre sort of unearned confidence surrounding these franchises without established track records for selling well in crowded release windows.

Watch Dogs 2 could end up in the same boat. The first game did not have nearly as much competition, and a lot more enthusiasm prior to the downgrade controversises.

Dishonored 1 released in October and still did just fine compared to expectations (hence the sequel). It didn't set the world on fire so no one should expect that from the sequel. It's not in the same weight class as BF1, CoD, WD2, etc and shouldn't be judged as such.

I think TF2 would have been helped tremendously by being first out of the gate- late September/early October. When/if they couldn't hit that then they should have delayed the game.

EDIT- I do think it's interesting how the narrative on many games shifted from the first half of the year to the second. In the first half it seemed like most major titles were either meeting expectations or over performing (DS3, UC4, Ratchet & Clank, The Division, etc). Whereas starting with DX:MD in August most titles have underperformed.

 

[Elfstruck]

Final Fantasy XV in this current climate is probably praying that it can muster 1 million for launch week. 13 apparently did 1,501,964 it's first week. Will see if the long wait has people clamoring and jumping in more. The date I feel is it's biggest threat. Everyone is done shopping at that point.

I just wished SE release XV about a week or two before Thanksgiving.

 

[Guymelef]

Last year MS "killed" Tomb Raider now Gears 4, just to write about the "'greatest holiday games lineup in Xbox history" in PRs..

 

[AniHawk]

Game makers need to do something. The answer to get mainstream people back in wasn't VR. The hottest game item of Christmas is the Mini NES which has 20 year old games on it.

taking a $50 million budget and instead funding 10 smaller games at a more affordable price point would result in more variety and less risk. there's also a smaller chance that any one of those titles would be a huge megahit that gets you $500 million in a year, but there's a greater chance of a breakout hit that could get you maybe 10 or 20 times back on your investment.

 

[DVCY201]

Final Fantasy XV in this current climate is probably praying that it can muster 1 million for launch week. 13 apparently did 1,501,964 it's first week. Will see if the long wait has people clamoring and jumping in more. The date I feel is it's biggest threat. Everyone is done shopping at that point.

Has to compete with Black Friday spending too. It'll probably just be the die hards who get it

The increased spending YoY is probably the result of smaller games gaining sales. The gap between AAA sales is shrinking I think, certainly not proportional with some of the budgets they have

 

[Omega Kirby]

Why should most people spend $60 + on a game, when they can get the same entertainment on a mobile game for less than $10?

I agree. After I sold my PS Vita, i've stuck to mobile gaming, if you do a bit of looking you can find very high quality games and a big variety of prices depending on how much quality and depth/content you're after. I always tend to stick between $5- 25$ ( Much like buying games on Steam, opposed to $40-$60 on consoles). Regardless, I'm still somewhat interested in the switch, but I'll wait to see how that unfolds

 

[Duxxy3]

360 had sold over 50 million units by the time Gears 3 came out, so Gears 4 sales shouldn't be that surprising.

Tomb Raider should have been released on PS3, 360, PS4, XB1 and PC at launch. Third party exclusivity (even timed) is a terrible idea.

 

[Floody]

taking a $50 million budget and instead funding 10 smaller games at a more affordable price point would result in more variety and less risk. there's also a smaller chance that any one of those titles would be a huge megahit that gets you $500 million in a year, but there's a greater chance of a breakout hit that could get you maybe 10 or 20 times back on your investment.

It'd probably be cheaper and less risky just going with the 1 game after factoring in marketing costs.

 

[The Antitype]

If EA was desperate to launch TitanFall in the holidays, they should have gone exclusive to Xbox One again and done the same marketing deal as TF1. Full press 1st party push marketing wise would have helped a ton.

Of course, the best option would have been releasing next year instead.

 

[Markoman]

First time I feel like a part of the hive-mind when it comes to gaming.
This gen hasn't done enough to wow people including me, graphical candy aside.

I've bought EDF 4.1 for PS4 for 10€ lately and I'm having more fun with this than most of the AAA titles. Games like UC4 are great experiences but not great games.

Uninspired open-world, cinematic games, story-heavy ...meh

Let's see...
An open world game about hackers part 2? Of all concepts for an open world game, Ubi comes up with this? Not surprised no one cares...

And FPSes tanking? Lawd, thx. We've been playing the same old shit for 10 years now.

A bunch of 10 year old boys is more likely to come with great ideas for games than most professional game designers.

 

[RPGam3r]

Doom and gloom. I don't buy it. People keep rattling off distractions that have existed already. In a year full of great FPS, services or not, we expect them all to have stellar numbers?

 

[DR2K]

No surprise here. TF2 and ROTTR were victims of stupid marketing decisions.

They'll both be fine in the long term

 

[Madness]

How is Gears a struggle when it sells as much as Judgment on a console base 1/5th the install base that Judgment had when it launched and also doesn't include the digital sales. A lot of people bought Gears 4 digitally so they could get a free PC version etc.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Yeah I've noticed this lately...it might be the wake up call the industry has been needing this gen. Too many safe bets lately. Sequels/remasters out the ass. People want new stuff. Shame about titanfall but that was all on EA being stupid. Skylanders though wow, that's quite the fall. Mafia selling so well is so weird considering the mixed reactions.

To be fair having two entries for the same IP is not diluting it, but just what creating an IP is done for. People like to scream and get excited for always yet another new IP, but what is an intellectual Property good for if you cannot make money out of it beyond a single entry in the franchise?

 

[tci]

I will try not to make the same mistake here in my phrasing as I did in the NPD thread, but if the premise of your argument is that people are gaming on phones and other devices than why are the current gen consoles still outpacing last gen sans WiiU? In other words, why are people buying these consoles? What are they playing?

Maybe that are not playing at all? Consoles do more than just play games. And having a dedicated device might affect it in some effect.

To say that console sales decide the amount of games purchased would be ignorant to say. I think there are a lot of things that affect this. Even more than I original posted.

- The generation is nearing its end.
- People have their games and are content with their library.
- New consoles sales are not moving games as much as it once did because the audience is not the same (more families that mainly focus on 1-2 games)

The rest of peoples time are definitely used on tablets and phones. I can see that where ever I go.

 

[Apathy]

Titanfall and Tomb Raider could be seen coming miles away. Toys-to-life was never going to last.

Gears is unfortunate but that'll likely be something of an evergreen title for Xbox One.

Pretty much. You didn't have to be prescient to predict what would fallen to tr and titanfall.

 

[Nasreddin]

This "release schedule is too crowded" thing is denial to me. We've had this issue for a hundred years. Only now is such a large percentage of aaa flopping. Reality is games as a service and mobile are taking over.

Plus digital download. After 3 years there are over 1,300 titles available at the German Playstation Store.

 

[Gamezone]

Weird how poorly Titanfall 2 sold considering how much bigger the console install base must be now.