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[Kuramu]

Yes, Thanks botticus, that's the one. Negative sales for both MS and Nin. Believe.

 

[Kuramu]

I was just thinking the same. Guess there is no high-res version of it eh?

Sorry man, I drew it at that resolution

 

[jamesinclair]

This is the most promising graph for PS3 because of where it tracks with the DS, and what the DS sold afterwards.

 

[Pellham]

This is the most promising graph for PS3 because of where it tracks with the DS, and what the DS sold afterwards.

You realize that the DS's sales spike was due to the DS Lite, right? I think Sony's already attempted multiple SKUs with not much difference in sales...

 

[Ceres]

Actually, just looking at it... I'm not sure that was intended as an LTD forecast. I think it was year on year instead. Which makes it hard to believe any console is going to sell 40 million, but I doubt that the top selling console is going to do it with 40 million only anyway.

Edit: Ok, that theory's out the window since it says "installed base" unless very narrowly they MEANT installed base each year rather than LTD.

Even if they meant year to year sales, adding those numbers up:

360: 10 + 17.5 + 26 + 31 + 33.5 + 32.5 = 150.5 mil
PS3: 2 + 11 + 21 + 31 + 36 + 38 = 139 mil
Wii: 3.5 + 17.5 + 31 + 36.5 + 39.5 + 37 = 165 mil

For a grand total of 454.5 mil home consoles sold this generation. If they meant these numbers then the joke of a graph is even more retarded than we initially thought.

 

[Version 3.0]

This is the most promising graph for PS3 because of where it tracks with the DS, and what the DS sold afterwards.

The DS certainly shows that things can change, true. But the DS was neck-and-neck with its competition, then pulled away. The PS3 is being crushed. The market's already decided. Sony is doing what they can, and it shows. But I wouldn't advise anyone getting their hopes up for a DS-like late bloom.

 

[Gaborn]

Even if they meant year to year sales, adding those numbers up:

360: 10 + 17.5 + 26 + 31 + 33.5 + 32.5 = 150.5 mil
PS3: 2 + 11 + 21 + 31 + 36 + 38 = 139 mil
Wii: 3.5 + 17.5 + 31 + 36.5 + 39.5 + 37 = 165 mil

For a grand total of 454.5 mil home consoles sold this generation. If they meant these numbers then the joke of a graph is even more retarded than we initially thought.

It's absolutely less realistic, but it's more sensible than actually predicting negative sales. Besides, as much as that's TOTALLY out of whack it makes more sense than believing the top selling console is going to be at, what 38 million

 

[Orlics]

pic

Strangely enough, the only thing that can stand toe-to-toe with the Wii in a launch-aligned chart is the GBA. Their LTDs just crossed paths again, with the GBA taking the lead again thanks to its 2nd Christmas season:

pic

Thanks aplenty! I always see people quoting the banned site for such numbers (at least, for worldwide sales), am I right to assume that they are probably wrong?

 

[Version 3.0]

454.5 mil home consoles sold this generation.

:lol That would put each console individually over the worldwide total of all 3 last gen in the same timeframe, I think. Or very close.

I don't know if that's dumber than negative sales, but it's...extremely uninformed, at best.

 

[Ceres]

:lol That would put each console individually over the worldwide total of all 3 last gen in the same timeframe, I think. Or very close.

I don't know if that's dumber than negative sales, but it's...extremely uninformed, at best.

Yeah, no matter how you look at it nothing makes sense. According to it, all the consoles finish within 5 mil of each other which is simply not going to happen and sales pretty much become nonexistent between 2009 and 2011. If it's LTD then the total consoles sold don't even equal the PS2's numbers and if it's year to year, everything sells better than the PS2. I'm simply going to attribute that graph to a company trying to look like they actually had something important to say about the market and made up a quick graph without looking at it carefully to suggest they had done research. Or it was simply an error on their part that they'll never live down within gaf sales-age.

 

[Kuramu]

It's absolutely less realistic, but it's more sensible than actually predicting negative sales. Besides, as much as that's TOTALLY out of whack it makes more sense than believing the top selling console is going to be at, what 38 million

Well, they seem to be imagining that this gen all 3 are splitting the top spot, and their combined totals are just over 100 million.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Edit: Ok, that theory's out the window since it says "installed base" unless very narrowly they MEANT installed base each year rather than LTD.

Here's the clincher: it's from early this year, so 2006 and 2007 numbers were already known (more or less). X360 sold no 10 million in 2006 or 17 million in 2007.

 

[jvm]

NPD analyst Anita Frazier contacted us and said that CoD4 did edge out Wii Play for #5 game YTD. Amazing.

Also, there was a suggestion that they might really release a top 10 (or something) for YTD software with the June numbers. That would be very nice, and I hope that NPD will do so.

 

[davepoobond]

i dont personally understand why its amusing that Wii Play has sold more units than PS3. GTAIV will be the same way, won't it? And if we take that concept further, Halo 3 has more people buying it than people that bought PS3s.

 

[norinrad21]

i dont personally understand why its amusing that Wii Play has sold more units than PS3. GTAIV will be the same way, won't it? And if we take that concept further, Halo 3 has more people buying it than people that bought PS3s.

How can a game sell more than the console its on? By your logic, MGS4 should sell more than PS3 consoles out there

 

[Vinci]

i dont personally understand why its amusing that Wii Play has sold more units than PS3. GTAIV will be the same way, won't it? And if we take that concept further, Halo 3 has more people buying it than people that bought PS3s.

I agree. Wii Play outselling the PS3? Pfft. Now Wii Fit outselling PS3 in Japan? That's entertaining.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

How can a game sell more than the console its on? By your logic, MGS4 should sell more than PS3 consoles out there

Worked for E.T.

*cough*

 

[davepoobond]

How can a game sell more than the console its on? By your logic, MGS4 should sell more than PS3 consoles out there

no.


GTAiv is on two consoles, remember genius?

 

[pieyow]

Basically.

As for MS, they really should stop copying and just go and do their own thing. XBL was quality innovation, they did what the DC didn't, and refined it so damn much with the 360. Why leave innovation there. WHAT THE FUCK @ LIPS. Why? Even Singstar hasn't even been a big seller on PS3, so why copy it. Nintendo haven't got a decent karoke game, and yet the Wii is selling bucketloads. The gaming karoke fad is over MS, invent something new for a change.

I totally agree with this. Only way to get peoples attention is to do something new and different or fill a void. Neither MS or Sony are doing this. Sure they've got the hardcore adult male market, but their not offering something different. MS started to with Live but they haven't really pushed it open, offering downloads isn't really new to Live. They need to push that envelope and give something new.

 

[Gaborn]

Here's the clincher: it's from early this year, so 2006 and 2007 numbers were already known (more or less). X360 sold no 10 million in 2006 or 17 million in 2007.

Bah. so, negative sales predictions for Wii/360 confirmed? amazing.

 

[liuelson]

jvm - I always appreciate your articles and analyses. For the future, do the press releases from the various manufacturers come out in time, and contain enough data, for you to include some discussion of 3rd party sales on the various platforms? Thanks for doing what you do!

 

[GPsych]

you misunderstood.. what i ment is when will we see MS continue to outsell the PS3 monthly.. what month will we see it turned back around? when is there next system seller similar to MGS4

I still don't buy that MGS4 is a huge system seller. The sell-out of the bundles is more of a reflection on peoples' desire for the 80 gig PS3 rather than MGS4 itself, IMHO. I could be completely wrong here, however. It's just that with the exception of a brief Halo 3 spike, have we seen a game release sell a large number of systems this gen? Basically, at the current price saturation point, I don't foresee a single game significantly pushing PS3 or 360 sales.

-g

 

[jvm]

jvm - I always appreciate your articles and analyses. For the future, do the press releases from the various manufacturers come out in time, and contain enough data, for you to include some discussion of 3rd party sales on the various platforms? Thanks for doing what you do!

Microsoft has routinely made comments about third party dollar sales on Xbox 360 as a percentage of the full third party market (where they are specifically looking at the market on current consoles, IIRC). It is possible we could take those numbers across several months and come up with something. One catch is that they'll often refer to dollar sales or a percentage for this generation, and that's slanted in their favor so far -- since they had the extra year over Nintendo and Sony.

This year the Wii may surpass the Xbox 360 in software numbers, and we may see them drop those figures from their press releases. It may be worth noting that if and when it happens. They did something similar where they were quoting their software dollar figure for the month as being higher than any other console's, and they've stopped doing that, presumably because the Wii's software figure is higher than that of the Xbox 360 recently.

I'll see what I can do. And thanks for the kind comments.