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[apujanata]

I think WD was premium priced at 5980Y or so, so it'd be 50% off.

Maybe jonnyram has some data on sell through for it?

You are right.
Famitsu Top 30 (see here at #12, or here with MSRP mentioned at 5980Y.

Can 50% discount one months after release (Sep 25) be categorized as price collapse ?

 

[swerve]

That number seems about right to me. LBP is going to do Afrika numbers, I think.

Seriously? I reckon it's got 100,000 in the bag over the first two charts it's featured in, just on word of mouth alone. May be wrong - I'm often optimistic about these things but last year heading to the holidays there were some big hits on PS3 right? And this is bound to be one such title this year, I'd have thought.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Seriously? I reckon it's got 100,000 in the bag over the first two charts it's featured in, just on word of mouth alone. May be wrong - I'm often optimistic about these things but last year heading to the holidays there were some big hits on PS3 right? And this is bound to be one such title this year, I'd have thought.

I hope you're right, but I think you're being far too optimistic.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Word of mouth doesn't seem a very reliable measure to go by. We know it's gained buzz in this and other online communities, but that doesn't necessarily mean much to Yu Six-Pack.

Here are last year's PS3 Q4 releases. Some of them did pretty well, yes, but the highest non-sequel is Lair, which reached 52K by the end of the year. Though admittedly, Call of Duty 4's success didn't ride on it having previously been a notable franchise over there.

 

[swerve]

Oh ok. Well, maybe the "first two charts" bit seems optimistic in light of the evidence. Still, I think it'll wind up one of the bigger sellers for the system, just because of the marketing spend.

Then again, I thought the same about LocoRoco PSP. I suck at this.

 

[Fafalada]

Some of them did pretty well, yes, but the highest non-sequel is Lair, which reached 52K by the end of the year.

Damn, I predicted Lair would do better then HS in Japan but outselling Uncharted and R&C is an atrocity. Although on the flipside it goes to show how F5 wasted potential with it, were it a good game it'd probably join the 100k crowd.

Anyway if people are right about LBP being the game with legs and all that, 30k could still be a decent start.

 

[Rolf NB]

YSO guys are coming up with predictions for next week and ... man its going to hurt poor LittleBigPlanet followers. They aren't just predicting top 3 titles this time, its extra with PS3 and DS hardware plus GTA4, LBP, GT5P3, VP DS, Pedometer and Avalon Code.

Just 3 predicted but so far:
PS3 Hardware Sales - 60k, 54k, 60k
PS3 Grand Theft Auto IV - 100k, 107k, 135k
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Spec III - 20k, 26k, 21k
PS3 LittleBigPlanet - 25k, 30k, 35k
DS Hardware Sales - 300k, 303k, 150k
DS Valkyrie Profile - 75k, 110k, 48k
DS Pedometer - 25k, 42k, 35k
DS Avalon Code - 30k, 27k, 30k

Would be great if we could do some predictions but with some system like for NPD :/

These are predictions for a whole month, right?

 

[Fafalada]

These are predictions for a whole month, right?

If 3k can hit 150k in a week, DSi can at least match it.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

These are predictions for a whole month, right?

Whole week, counting all models (PS3 40GB and DS Lite too), Famitsu numbers.

 

[Rolf NB]

If 3k can hit 150k in a week, DSi can at least match it.

That seems plausible. The PS3 sales however ... obscenely optimistic IMO. Downright absurd if you compare them to the LBP predictions. If you predict LBP to sell 25k, that means you don't believe in its wide appeal. Right or wrong, if you take that position, what would make you believe that a PS3 bundle including LBP would be six or seven times as attractive as an LBP-less PS3? It makes no sense.

 

[u_neek]

DS Pedometer - 25k, 42k, 35k

Please don't tell me there's a games called Pedometer!....?

 

[C.T.]

Please don't tell me there's a games called Pedometer!....?

Its not called pedometer, but the pedometer is the essential part of the game. Didn't you see the videos of nintendos pre-TGS conference?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Please don't tell me there's a games called Pedometer!....?

A pedometer is a device used to measure how many steps you've taken.

READ A BOOK.

 

[schuelma]

That seems plausible. The PS3 sales however ... obscenely optimistic IMO. Downright absurd if you compare them to the LBP predictions. If you predict LBP to sell 25k, that means you don't believe in its wide appeal. Right or wrong, if you take that position, what would make you believe that a PS3 bundle including LBP would be six or seven times as attractive as an LBP-less PS3? It makes no sense.

I agree that seems incredibly high given that it isn't even a price drop.

I think it could do 25-30K, which would be a 6X increase :lol :lol

 

[iceatcs]

Little too high for PS3 predictions I think. But if it was 60k which it will be funny cos it will be almost taken over all the 360 increase in past weeks.

 

[-Double_A]

When does LBP release in Japan again?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I think it could do 25-30K, which would be a 6X increase :lol :lol

This made me wonder about what the better single-week increases have been. Using Media Create data (which in Garaph is from 2003 on), I made this SQL query.

Looks like in the past 5-6 years there have been twelve times a system has sextupled from one week to the next, though I doubt many will be excited by GBASP jumping from 9 to 94. PS3 did one time jump to 6.94 times its previous value, but that took Metal Gear Solid 4. PS3's next biggest jump was to 3.21 times its previous week; this was last year's November price drop/big games combo.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

When does LBP release in Japan again?

Supposed to be Thursday, the 30th. Dunno if the Qu'ran stuff changed that.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

There's like 10 more guys who have predicted already, so I'll do them just in ranges this time:
PS3 Hardware Sales - from 25k to 55k (quite a few on the 25k-35k this time)
PS3 Grand Theft Auto IV - 90k to 125k
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Spec III - from 10k to 50k but most of them 20-30k
PS3 LittleBigPlanet - 20k to 50k, mostly on the 25-40k
DS Hardware Sales - 200k to 300k, most on the lower part
DS Valkyrie Profile - 50k to 90k, mostly 65-75k ones
DS Pedometer - 20k to 50k
DS Avalon Code - 20k to 30k

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So I know with its focus on user generated content Little Big Planet is not exactly the average platformer, but what other 2D (-playing) console platformers have there been in recent years to compare it with besides Wario Land? DK Jungle Beat. Super Paper Mario maybe? But I'm sure there's non-Nintendo stuff that's escaped my radar or doesn't come to mind so quickly.

 

[schuelma]

There's like 10 more guys who have predicted already, so I'll do them just in ranges this time:
PS3 Hardware Sales - from 25k to 55k (quite a few on the 25k-35k this time)
PS3 Grand Theft Auto IV - 90k to 125k
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue Spec III - from 10k to 50k but most of them 20-30k
PS3 LittleBigPlanet - 20k to 50k, mostly on the 25-40k
DS Hardware Sales - 200k to 300k, most on the lower part
DS Valkyrie Profile - 50k to 90k, mostly 65-75k ones
DS Pedometer - 20k to 50k
DS Avalon Code - 20k to 30k

Forgive my ignorance, but who are these posters?

 

[C.T.]

A pedometer is a device used to measure how many steps you've taken.

READ A BOOK.

Wait, you think he thought it's approved by pedo bear?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

All the reviews i've gotten on GAF so far imply that LBP is average as far as the actual platforming is concerned and the real meat is in the creation.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Forgive my ignorance, but who are these posters?

Members from yso website, I think its invite-only. Website is well known here for sales data but in the forums they predict weekly sales and they have a point system for them and all. Nothing else than anonymous predictions just with a little work into submission/results, like we have for NPD.

 

[Yes Boss!]

All the reviews i've gotten on GAF so far imply that LBP is average as far as the actual platforming is concerned and the real meat is in the creation.

Nah, platforming is exquisite. It takes a bit getting used to the auto-correcting three planes but once you let go of your old notions of how 2D platforming works you realize the plane system is pretty damn unique.

And there are just a ton a mechanics borrowed from the nintendo classics (things like Yoshi's Island/Mario World).

 

[schuelma]

Members from yso website, I think its invite-only. Website is well known here for sales data but in the forums they predict weekly sales and they have a point system for them and all. Nothing else than anonymous predictions just with a little work into submission/results, like we have for NPD.

gotcha, thanks

 

[Phife Dawg]

That seems plausible. The PS3 sales however ... obscenely optimistic IMO. Downright absurd if you compare them to the LBP predictions. If you predict LBP to sell 25k, that means you don't believe in its wide appeal. Right or wrong, if you take that position, what would make you believe that a PS3 bundle including LBP would be six or seven times as attractive as an LBP-less PS3? It makes no sense.

It's not only the LBP bundle. Japan gets the 80G as well now and GT5 Spec. III is packed in for free. I think all these bundles come in the three colours as well (Black, White, Silver). I do agree though that ~60k is too optimistic, that would be what PS3 did with the price drop, DW, White PS3, shockaxis all with bundles around the same time last year. But it should at least do 20-30k for the week.

 

[Regulus Tera]

Please don't tell me there's a games called Pedometer!....?

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

PS3 LittleBigPlanet - 25k, 30k, 35k

They're being awfully pessimistic about the game. I expect around 80k - 100k or so, depending on the hype variable. Respectable and certainly so for the PS3, but not going to do big-name DS game numbers.

Regardless of what happens though, I expect a certain amount of backpedalling, spinning of numbers and trolling when it does release. You know, stuff like:

"Of course it bombed! Did you see how much Sony ended up

Spoiler

not

spending promoting the game? They didn't even make an anime series!"

"Naturally, this is a game that starts slow out of the gate. Don't worry, thanks to word-of-mouth, it'll have killer legs. You'll see it hanging around the software charts for months to come. Spots 1 - 15 are for the flavour of the week. 15 - 30 are where the real money is made."

"Well, duh! The PS3 still costs about a million Yen. They need a price drop, fast."

"It's a western game in Japan. Of course it isn't going to appeal to a Japanese audience. They have a separate section in game stores for foreign-published games, you know."

"Well, LBP might look like a game that has mass casual appeal, but in reality, with its complicated level-design system it's actually a hardcore game on a hardcore console. The Wii has the casual market locked up, so this is in line with expectations."

"Japan hates HD gaming am confirmed"

"It only had X number of days on sale. You'll see. Next week the number will add up to Y for the two weeks and we'll see the real effect of the launch."

"Don't worry. It'll be just another quality game in the PS3 backlog that will ensure that when FFXIII is released (it's still an exclusive in Japan), the casuals will sell their Wiis and their games and buy up PS3 hardware and software in droves. It'll help justify their purchase and keep them in next gen"

"Sure, LBP didn't do MGS4 numbers, but it's a new IP. Besides, did you see how much the PS3 hardware sales jumped by? I think we might see a resurgence in the PS3 with steady sales of the hardware from now on thanks to LBP."

"The year of the PS3 continues!"

 

[RBH]

They're being awfully pessimistic about the game. I expect around 80k - 100k or so, depending on the hype variable. Respectable and certainly so for the PS3, but not going to do big-name DS game numbers.

Regardless of what happens though, I expect a certain amount of backpedalling, spinning of numbers and trolling when it does release. You know, stuff like:

"Of course it bombed! Did you see how much Sony ended up

Spoiler

not

spending promoting the game? They didn't even make an anime series!"

"Naturally, this is a game that starts slow out of the gate. Don't worry, thanks to word-of-mouth, it'll have killer legs. You'll see it hanging around the software charts for months to come. Spots 1 - 15 are for the flavour of the week. 15 - 30 are where the real money is made."

"Well, duh! The PS3 still costs about a million Yen. They need a price drop, fast."

"It's a western game in Japan. Of course it isn't going to appeal to a Japanese audience. They have a separate section in game stores for foreign-published games, you know."

"Well, LBP might look like a game that has mass casual appeal, but in reality, with its complicated level-design system it's actually a hardcore game on a hardcore console. The Wii has the casual market locked up, so this is in line with expectations."

"Japan hates HD gaming am confirmed"

"It only had X number of days on sale. You'll see. Next week the number will add up to Y for the two weeks and we'll see the real effect of the launch."

"Don't worry. It'll be just another quality game in the PS3 backlog that will ensure that when FFXIII is released (it's still an exclusive in Japan), the casuals will sell their Wiis and their games and buy up PS3 hardware and software in droves. It'll help justify their purchase and keep them in next gen"

"Sure, LBP didn't do MGS4 numbers, but it's a new IP. Besides, did you see how much the PS3 hardware sales jumped by? I think we might see a resurgence in the PS3 with steady sales of the hardware from now on thanks to LBP."

"The year of the PS3 continues!"

Fantastic. :lol :lol

 

[Johann]

He shoots....


.... and the crowd goes wild!

 

[Oblivion]

Oh, I see. Sources would be nice though.

NP: Will you be making other games using the Zelda engine?

Miyamoto: We were using the Super Mario 64 engine for Zelda, but we had to make so many modifications to it that it's a different engine now.

http://www.miyamotoshrine.com/theman/interviews/111998.shtml

awesome stuff

Wonderful, as usual, sir. However, that does bring up the question as to what's next for the PS3 after LBP?

 

[Mindlog]

Sounds like someone should create a spin bingo card and keep it on the down low. When the new thread comes around a game shall be had.

 

[schuelma]

Wonderful, as usual, sir. However, that does bring up the question as to what's next for the PS3 after LBP?

White Knight Chronicles I suppose..

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Wonderful, as usual, sir. However, that does bring up the question as to what's next for the PS3 after LBP?

WKC is this year, isn't it? I expect this game to do a lot better than LBP will, at least during its first week.

 

[sensi97]

Wonderful, as usual, sir. However, that does bring up the question as to what's next for the PS3 after LBP?

What about WS Winning Eleven 2009 ? WE 2008 did ok for a PS3 game.
And it seems like there will be a PS3+WE 2009 bundle late november.

 

[RBH]

Sounds like someone should create a spin bingo card and keep it on the down low. When the new thread comes around a game shall be had.

This is an idea that I can get behind.

 

[PantherLotus]

Apologies to both of you that are actually missing the handheld charts for the week. i'll have that and the weekly projections bit up later tonight.

Also, LOL@bingo idea

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Apologies to both of you that are actually missing the handheld charts for the week. i'll have that and the weekly projections bit up later tonight.

Also, LOL@bingo idea

Awesome. How is your formula coming along?

 

[Blast Processing]

Epic pre-emptive LBP-apologist ownage

:lol

 

[PantherLotus]

>>CLICK HERE FOR FULL HANDHELD CHARTS<<

 

[PantherLotus]

Media Create PROJECTIONS (10/20 - 10/26):

Last Week's Results:

[B][U]SYSTEM PROJECTED    ACTUAL  DIFFERENCE  ABS DIF  ADJ % ACC[/U][/B]
DS        30,500    29,839        661       661     97.78%
PSP      155,500   159,816     -4,316     4,316     97.30%
WII       34,000    26,024      7,976     7,976     69.35%
360        6,300     7,856     -1,556     1,556     80.19%
PS3        6,500     4,725      1,775     1,775     62.43%
[U]TOTAL    232,800   228,260      4,540    16,284           [/U] 
AVG                                       3,257     81.41%

Projections 10/20 - 10/26:
DS: 30,000
PSP: 85,000
WII: 29,000
360: 7,500
PS3: 5,000

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Woo! Projections!

Have you got an actual formula to come up with these, or is there still a gut-feeling method to them?

 

[PantherLotus]

Woo! Projections!

Have you got an actual formula to come up with these, or is there still a gut-feeling method to them?

I wouldn't use the term "gut feeling" but no, these are not derived from an equation, yet.


Here's the basic concept that I looking at:

A: (4 Week Avg)
B: (this week last year)
C: avg % change over last 4 weeks
D: % change YOY

Something like:

((A+B)/2) + C + D

Clearly there are many flaws with that and I haven't tested it once. Lots of missing factors (esp. upcoming releases) but it may help to predict sales once systems have reached an established pattern. Let me run some numbers on that formula right there to see what we're actually dealing with. Please realize my statistical depth is lacking. I could really use an expert in the field if there's one handy.

 

[jj984jj]

Mine:
PSP: 87,000
DS: 25,000
WII: 31,000
360: 5,500
PS3: 5,000

I think 360 will go down a bit because of the PR MS put out last week about the new value pack, I'm wonder how fast word spread among the group buying them.

 

[Hive]

A pedometer is a device used to measure how many steps you've taken.

READ A BOOK.

Americans don't read books, remember? ^o^

"But would u believe.. entertainment magazines?" --Segata

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

I wouldn't use the term "gut feeling" but no, these are not derived from an equation, yet.


Here's the basic concept that I looking at:

A: (4 Week Avg)
B: (this week last year)
C: avg % change over last 4 weeks
D: % change YOY

Something like:

((A+B)/2) + C + D

Clearly there are many flaws with that and I haven't tested it once. Lots of missing factors (esp. upcoming releases) but it may help to predict sales once systems have reached an established pattern. Let me run some numbers on that formula right there to see what we're actually dealing with. Please realize my statistical depth is lacking. I could really use an expert in the field if there's one handy.

It's been a while since I've done any signal processing, so I probably wouldn't be much help. Mind you, once I got going again, it wouldn't be that difficult - hardware sales are just a discrete time series, after all. You could use some simple prediction functions too, but it would involve assigning weighted values to each new release, dependent on arbitrary values such as hype and popularity.

Basically, you couldn't escape inserting "gut feeling" into the function

 

[PantherLotus]

Right. But we could make a model that works independent of releases, with the base assumption that all releases even out over time.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Right. But we could make a model that works independent of releases, with the base assumption that all releases even out over time.

That's a fair point. You could even compensate for the effect of games with legs with a constant term of some kind.

I'd have to dig out the old textbooks to tell you how that could be done though.

 

[_Alkaline_]

Pure Win

Oh man. :lol