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[Regulus Tera]

DSi Slim.

DSitoo

 

[GameplayWhore]

DSitoo

DSi HD, just to make Pachter weep.

 

[Michan]

What happened to that "large DS" they were making? Or did that turn out to be the DSi?

 

[onken]

People sure putting a lot of faith in NSMB.

 

[gerg]

What happened to that "large DS" they were making? Or did that turn out to be the DSi?

I think so. At one point they intended to release a DS with two slots for DS cartridges, but that eventually transformed into the DSi with its SD card. They also had a successor to the DS ready to launch, but then they shelved that as well.

Regarding the possibility of Nintendo slashing forecasts, anything before January would seem premature imo.

People sure putting a lot of faith in NSMB.

Barring another 5,000 yen price cut, it's all Nintendo has left for the moment. I didn't realise it was coming out in December in Japan though. I'm kind of excited to see how it will perform.

 

[cw_sasuke]

What happened to that "large DS" they were making? Or did that turn out to be the DSi?

The DSi has bigger screens - so i guess so.

 

[d+pad]

I can't help but think this is a miscalculation on Nintendo's part. One of the things that really helps this particular type of multiplayer focused game sell well on portable systems in Japan is that everyone goes out and buys their own copy. When you centralize the game onto a single television screen that everyone shares, everyone's going to share the game, too, and that puts much more of a cap on the sales potential.

I know I'm a bit late to this discussion, but I don't quite understand all of what you're trying to say here. Isn't what you said (there's a cap on the sales potential of console vs handheld multiplayer games, etc.) true of *all* multiplayer Wii titles, even Wii Sports, WSR, Wii Fit and even MK Wii? Yet two of those game have sold well in excess of 2 million copies, while MK Wii is around 2.3 million and WSR more than likely will end up in a similar place by the time it stops selling.

I guess what I'm saying is that *many* if not all multiplayer-focused games *should* sell better on handhelds than consoles, just by their nature (everyone goes out and buys their own copy), but that hardly means they shouldn't be made - or that Nintendo has "miscalculated" by producing a multiplayer-focused Mario game for the Wii.

All that said, I don't think NSMB Wii is going to match NBMB's sales in Japan. (Of course, I don't think anyone else here is saying that, either.) I *do* think it's going to be a big seller, though - I'm expecting between 2 and 3 million in sales, personally. Will it help Wii HW sales? I think it'll help them from falling into the shitter, so to speak, but other than that I'm not so sure...

 

[charlequin]

I wonder whether some analysts are buying into the suggestion that Nintendo are going to start following Apple's approach, going for regular "refreshes" of platforms rather than sticking with one platform and then a generational leap after x years.

I think there's a lot of evidence that Nintendo is indeed adopting elements of this strategy, but next June is still too early to launch a full-on new model. Even Apple doesn't actually release actual full new models/iterations every year.

 

[ethelred]

I know I'm a bit late to this discussion, but I don't quite understand all of what you're trying to say here. Isn't what you said (there's a cap on the sales potential of console vs handheld multiplayer games, etc.) true of *all* multiplayer Wii titles, even Wii Sports, WSR, Wii Fit...

Yes, but those games are pretty clearly designed for the Wii, and designed to take advantage of its features. Even setting aside the usage of the remote or the balance board, though, I think they feature a type of gameplay that would only really work on the television screen versus a portable system. There's a big, big difference between a family getting together and playing a one-person-takes-a-turn-at-a-time sports game or minigame collection and a co-op platformer. The sharable nature of the game was only one part of my point, and I feel like you're picking out a single paragraph and choosing to use that as an encapsulation of everything I said.

NSMB Wii, as it has been presented, strikes me as a game that was designed as a DS game, but is landing on the Wii instead. In part that is because of the specific nature of its multiplayer component, but it's also because of all the other reasons I listed out. I feel like the game was originally conceived as a DS game, and then moved over to the Wii with spruced up graphics (to a slight extent) when Nintendo realized they desperately needed something big, and fast. Does anyone dispute that this is a strong likelihood? But if it was designed as a DS game, you're going to see that in a lot of different ways within the game itself, beyond the visuals, because designing for a portable is a bit different than designing for a console.

I stand by my belief that if Nintendo wanted to make a from-the-ground-up 2D Mario game for the Wii to spur hardware sales, they could have designed something that seems a lot more like it was actually made for the system it's appearing on. And I think there's a fairly good chance this will be reflected in the sales.

We'll see in two months.

Will it help Wii HW sales? I think it'll help them from falling into the shitter, so to speak, but other than that I'm not so sure...

Well... that's kind of why it's a miscalculation. If the calculation on Nintendo's part was that a game with the NSMB name would do for the Wii what the original game did for the DS, I think that will be proven mistaken. And it seems fairly certain from the various comments I've read that this was indeed the calculation.

 

[GameplayWhore]

I think there's a lot of evidence that Nintendo is indeed adopting elements of this strategy, but next June is still too early to launch a full-on new model. Even Apple doesn't actually release actual full new models/iterations every year.

DSi came out in November 2008, so June 2010 would be 19 months since, closer to two years than one. In comparison (in a rush, using wikipedia, apologies if dates are off), PSP Go comes out in November 2009, and the PSP 3000 came out in October 2008, only 13 months before, and the PSP 2000 came out in September 2007, 13 months before that. So Nintendo seems at least comparatively using a much more conservative refresh cycle than Sony with their handhelds.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I think there's a lot of evidence that Nintendo is indeed adopting elements of this strategy, but next June is still too early to launch a full-on new model. Even Apple doesn't actually release actual full new models/iterations every year.

I'd tend to agree (hence the "in the next 1-2 years") and I think that particularly in the handheld space it's a good approach, provided the hardware manufacturer can walk the line by offering small but worthwhile improvements or differentiation and avoiding splitting the userbase. I think both Nintendo and Sony have done well so far with the PSP and DS in this regard (though I think that the PSPGo is going to prove to be a bit of a mis-step).

Although I'm reluctant to give too much support to Pachter's belief/suggestion/drooling desire for WiiHD, I could certainly see Nintendo attempting a similar hardware refresh for the system in the next year or so. I don't expect anything like an HD-enabled Wii, or an upscaler add-on, but I wouldn't be surprised by a cosmetic redesign with a few hardware improvements - new shell, Remote with M+ built-in, more flash memory etc.

 

[charlequin]

DSi came out in November 2008, so June 2010 would be 19 months since, closer to two years than one.

For something like what we're talking about (i.e. a form-factor revision, a "better" version with largely identical features, a DSi-Lite) you have to look more at where the previous version came out last, since you're hurting sales everywhere as people "wait" for the revision -- June 2010 would be just over a year since the DSi came out everywhere that isn't Japan.

Sony's operated on a slightly faster timetable, but I think the 3000 demonstrates that they're willing to make extremely minor upgrades and not worry about whether they actually produce a significant sales boost.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Yes, but those games are pretty clearly designed for the Wii, and designed to take advantage of its features. Even setting aside the usage of the remote or the balance board, though, I think they feature a type of gameplay that would only really work on the television screen versus a portable system. There's a big, big difference between a family getting together and playing a one-person-takes-a-turn-at-a-time sports game or minigame collection and a co-op platformer. The sharable nature of the game was only one part of my point, and I feel like you're picking out a single paragraph and choosing to use that as an encapsulation of everything I said.

NSMB Wii, as it has been presented, strikes me as a game that was designed as a DS game, but is landing on the Wii instead. In part that is because of the specific nature of its multiplayer component, but it's also because of all the other reasons I listed out. I feel like the game was originally conceived as a DS game, and then moved over to the Wii with spruced up graphics (to a slight extent) when Nintendo realized they desperately needed something big, and fast. Does anyone dispute that this is a strong likelihood? But if it was designed as a DS game, you're going to see that in a lot of different ways within the game itself, beyond the visuals, because designing for a portable is a bit different than designing for a console.

I stand by my belief that if Nintendo wanted to make a from-the-ground-up 2D Mario game for the Wii to spur hardware sales, they could have designed something that seems a lot more like it was actually made for the system it's appearing on. And I think there's a fairly good chance this will be reflected in the sales.

We'll see in two months.

I see what you're saying Ethel, but doesn't that stance basically amount to Nintendo never making another 2D Mario for a home console again? I buy that the formula being employed might be best suited to portable play, however I don't see how a mulitplayer component mitigates the use of putting it on console vs. handheld, particularly one with a party console reputation like Wii.

 

[gkryhewy]

What was the timing between GBC and GBA? As I recall, it was disconcertingly tight.

I think it's more likely that the analyst is mistaken -- although I could certainly see a Wii iteration by June 2010 (maybe with some level of HD functionality plus an all-in-one M+ controller).

 

[gerg]

Yes, but those games are pretty clearly designed for the Wii, and designed to take advantage of its features. Even setting aside the usage of the remote or the balance board, though, I think they feature a type of gameplay that would only really work on the television screen versus a portable system. There's a big, big difference between a family getting together and playing a one-person-takes-a-turn-at-a-time sports game or minigame collection and a co-op platformer. The sharable nature of the game was only one part of my point, and I feel like you're picking out a single paragraph and choosing to use that as an encapsulation of everything I said.

I'm not sure I follow. Yes, there is an actual difference between multiplayer games where players play simultaneously and when they play sequentially, but in an off-line environment they still amount to the social interaction that is popular with games on the Wii.

NSMB Wii, as it has been presented, strikes me as a game that was designed as a DS game, but is landing on the Wii instead. In part that is because of the specific nature of its multiplayer component, but it's also because of all the other reasons I listed out. I feel like the game was originally conceived as a DS game, and then moved over to the Wii with spruced up graphics (to a slight extent) when Nintendo realized they desperately needed something big, and fast. Does anyone dispute that this is a strong likelihood? But if it was designed as a DS game, you're going to see that in a lot of different ways within the game itself, beyond the visuals, because designing for a portable is a bit different than designing for a console.

I'm sorry, but could you repeat these "reasons" as to why (the original) NSMB feels like a game "designed" for the DS?

I wouldn't deny that designing for a portable can produce a different game-playing experience than designing for a console, but I don't see how this is represented within the core mechanics and design attributes that make NSMB what it is, and nor its success.

I stand by my belief that if Nintendo wanted to make a from-the-ground-up 2D Mario game for the Wii to spur hardware sales, they could have designed something that seems a lot more like it was actually made for the system it's appearing on. And I think there's a fairly good chance this will be reflected in the sales.

I disagree. I think that Nintendo's desire to make a "from-the-ground up 2D Mario game for the Wii" is entirely represented in NSMB Wii: it embraces almost all the core values of the Wii system.

 

[GameplayWhore]

For something like what we're talking about (i.e. a form-factor revision, a "better" version with largely identical features, a DSi-Lite) you have to look more at where the previous version came out last, since you're hurting sales everywhere as people "wait" for the revision -- June 2010 would be just over a year since the DSi came out everywhere that isn't Japan.

I was answering in the context of this specifically being in a thread about Japan.

But with respect to being worldwide, the report is really vague. It doesn't really explicitly state a simultaneous worldwide release (nor the opposite). Heck, if you wanted to, you could easily interpret what was said as meaning that Nintendo would announce, not release, the new model in June. Of course, it also looks like speculation on the part of the analyst.

Anyway, let me revisit what you said using the latest release of the DS, although I'm not necessarily following you completely there:

Even Apple doesn't actually release actual full new models/iterations every year.

From Wikipedia:
2001: iPod
2002: iPod gen 2
2003: iPod gen 3
2004: iPod gen 4 (also iPod photo and iPod Mini that year)
2005: iPod gen 5 (also iPod color and iPod Mini gen 2 and iPod nano and iPod Shuffle that year)
2006: no main iPod (but Nano gen 2 and Shuffle gen 2 that year)
2007: iPod gen 6 (also Nano gen 3 and iPod Touch that year)
2008: no new classic iPods from here on in (but Nano gen 4 and Touch gen 2 this year)
2009: (Nano gen 5 and Touch gen 3 this year)

Apple released five Classic iPod models and six additional iPod models in their first five years. If you group the Classics all together (a mistake, imho, because they're pretty different), then you have six different types of iPod in this span (Classic, Photo, Mini, Color, Nano, Shuffle). In the same span of time, Nintendo released three DS models with a fourth to come.

Your statement above is inaccurate. This doesn't mean you're wrong about it being too soon for Nintendo to release a new model, but they're certainly not being more refresh-crazy than Apple.

 

[ethelred]

I'm sorry, but could you repeat these "reasons" as to why (the original) NSMB feels like a game "designed" for the DS?

"No." But you can "feel" free to go back and "read" the "posts" I've made where I've "explained" my "reasons."

I see what you're saying Ethel, but doesn't that stance basically amount to Nintendo never making another 2D Mario for a home console again?

Oh, certainly not. I think that it is very possible to make a 2D platformer that really works with the features and abilities and design concepts of a home console as surely as with a portable. I'm not so sure that NSMB Wii is such a game.

 

[onken]

I'm not sure I follow. Yes, there is an actual difference between multiplayer games where players play simultaneously and when they play sequentially, but in an off-line environment they still amount to the social interaction that is popular with games on the Wii.

The big "legatons" (I've just patented this word FYI) on Wii are Wii Fit and Wii Sports (and to an extent Mario Kart), games that are made of small components that can be returned to at will. NSMB is a linear adventure made up of traditional stages. For this simple reason, I think we're going to it trend a lot closer to SMG or TP. I really can't see anything to justify these 2m+ estimates going round at the moment other than a highly tenuous link to a DS game.

 

[donny2112]

Famitsu Sep 21-27

01./01. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 166,244 / 2,067,609 (-66%)
02./05. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Friend Collection) (Nintendo) - 89,801 / 1,156,103 (+23%)
03./02. [PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Namco Bandai Games) - 44,959 / 272,465 (-80%)
04./03. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu Portable 4 (Konami) - 43,239 / 151,146 (-60%)
05./10. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 34,467 / 1,194,491 (+21%)
06./08. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 33,737 / 3,925,285 (-5%)
07./00. [360] Halo 3: ODST (Microsoft Game Studios) - 33,020 / NEW
08./04. [NDS] SaGa 2 Legendary Secret Treasure: Goddess of Destiny (Square Enix) - 29,488 / 130,051 (-71%)
09./06. [PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 4 (Konami) - 14,117 / 66,352 (-73%)
10./15. [PS3] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (BEST) (Square Enix) - 10,706 / 40,818

11./18. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom) - 10,564 / 1,007,098 (-8%)
12./07. [PSP] Ys 7 (Falcom) - 10,286 / 53,102 (-76%)
13./20. [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 9,062 / 908,693 (+2%)
14./19. [NDS] Sloane and MacHale's Mysterious Story 2 (Level 5) - 8,100 / 52,141 (-16%)
15./11. [WII] Forever Blue 2: Call of the Sea (Nintendo) - 7,669 / 25,171 (-56%)
16./16. [PS3] Kidou Senshi Gundam Senki: Lost War Chronicles (Namco Bandai Games) - 6,780 / 210,092 (-42%)
17./17. [NDS] Love Plus (Konami) - 6,438 / 81,279 (-44%)
18./27. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 6,345 / 3,536,288 (+19%)
19./29. [NDS] Penguin no Mondai X: Tenkuu no 7 Senshi (A Penguin's Troubles X: 7 Warriors of the Sky) (Konami) - 6,108 / 145,937 (+21%)
20./26. [NDS] Puyo Puyo 7 (SEGA) - 5,837 / 169,181 (+3%)
21./28. [NDS] You'll Incur Losses if You Remain Ignorant: How Money and Things Work DS (Nintendo) - 4,784 / 47,080 (-5%)
22./14. [PSP] 428: Fuusa Sareta Shibuya de (Spike) - 4,724 / 20,656 (-70%)
23./13. [PSP] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! Battle Arena 2 - Spirits Burst (Marvelous) - 4,507 / 20,471 (-72%)
24./00. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 3,963 / 2,332,563
25./23. [PSP] Taikou Risshiden V (Koei) - 3,924 / 10,902 (-44%)
26./09. [NDS] The Idolm@ster: Dearly Stars (Namco Bandai Games) - 3,912 / 37,307 (-88%)
27./30. [PSP] Way of the Samurai 2 Portable (Spike) - 3,734 / 26,679 (-23%)
28./00. [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) - 3,623 / 5,073,967
29./00. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) - 3,386 / 3,508,371
30./00. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriot (BEST) (Konami) - 3,329 / 37,167



Bar Chart Sep 21-27 (thanks to JoshuaJSlone/garaph.info)

Note: Image may be delayed from the time of this post, but will automatically show once the data is ready.


Recent Famitsu Top 30s

Aug 24-30, 2009
Aug 31-Sep 6, 2009
Sep 7-13, 2009
Sep 14-20, 2009

 

[Rock_Man]

Total Software Sales by Platform (Apr-Sep 2008 / Apr-Sep 2009)

Thanks! These numbers help me verify that my weekly estimations are accurate. For the period apr-sep 2009, my numbers are off by less than 1% for each system (average of 0.3%!). This gives me confidence in updating the tie ratio charts up to 9/27/09:

DS tie ratio is now > Xb360 tie ratio.

 

[d+pad]

The big "legatons" (I've just patented this word FYI) on Wii are Wii Fit and Wii Sports (and to an extent Mario Kart), games that are made of small components that can be returned to at will. NSMB is a linear adventure made up of traditional stages. For this simple reason, I think we're going to it trend a lot closer to SMG or TP. I really can't see anything to justify these 2m+ estimates going round at the moment other than a highly tenuous link to a DS game.

Hmmm, I think the folks who think NSMB Wii will sell somewhere between what SMG sold and what NSMB DS sold have pointed to much more than a"highly tenuous link" to the DS game.

For starters, what links the first games you mentioned in your post - Wii Sports, Wii Fit and MK Wii? Oh, they allow local multiplayer! SMG and TP, on the other hand, are solitary affairs (i.e., no multiplayer of any kind, really).

Second - and this has been point out many times over - 2D Mario games tend be seen as being more accessible (and hence tend to sell more) than 3D Marios. I don't think it's a stretch to at least suggest this will continue to be true for NSMB Wii...

Third - I don't think the success of NSMB on the DS should be discounted when discussing how the Wii version may perform. There's no guarantee the DS title's success will rub off on the Wii version, of course, but it *is* possible that success will cause quite a few people to pick up the Wii version, no?

I do think it's interesting that with all of this hemming and hawing, few people seem to want to make a prediction about NSMB Wii's sales. I've seen one person suggest the title will launch with about 700k in sales and end up at about 3 million, and I earlier stated my belief that it will sell somewhere between 2 and 3 million when all is said and done. What do others think?

 

[schuelma]

600K opening week, 2.6M LTD.

 

[d+pad]

I think that it is very possible to make a 2D platformer that really works with the features and abilities and design concepts of a home console as surely as with a portable. I'm not so sure that NSMB Wii is such a game.

This is an honest question for you: How do you think such a game would differ from NSMB Wii? I mean, NSMB Wii offers single-player and (local) multiplayer experiences (with the latter being one of Wii's calling cards, I should think) and it includes various features that make use of the Wii remote. Right now, I can't imagine what else it should include to make it seem more "suited" for the Wii...

Another thing to consider: I have no idea if this game was originally intended for the DS or the Wii, but one thing seems sure to me - it was intended to entice those who bought and enjoyed the DS version to buy *another* version of the game. It isn't, as so many seemed to imagine at the beginning, just the DS version upscaled for the Wii. Whereas AC: CF's only real carrot to existing AC fans was the lame-ass city (which included many/most of the things offered in AC:WW), NSMB Wii seems to offer up many new additions that should entice existing NSMB players.

 

[d+pad]

600K opening week, 2.6M LTD.

This sounds good to me, though I think the opening week may be bigger depending on how SMG and MK Wii opened. Anyone have those numbers?

Regardless, I expect NSMB Wii to have a bigger opening week than SMG, surely, but possibly MK Wii as well.

 

[gerg]

"No." But you can "feel" free to go back and "read" the "posts" I've made where I've "explained" my "reasons."

My first set of quotations may have been unnecessary (and I apologise if I offended you), but that's no reason to be so rude about it. I honestly did not intend to be condescending or patronising, although I can see how the sentence may have been read that way.

Reading back into the thread, you highlight how the fact that NSMB Wii is a multiplayer game on a console may dampen its sales, in that handheld titles that highlight multiplayer elements require that multiple people buy the same game in order to play together, whereas on a home console they only need one copy of said game to do so. However, unless I'm mistaken, multiplayer was never a big point of NSMB to begin with. So I fail to understand why this aspect is really relevant. A NSMB 2 game on the DS that emphasised multiplayer heavily may be bigger than the current NSMB 2 game on the Wii that does so, but this doesn't bear much on the relative success of the Wii NSMB 2 to the DS NSMB.

You also suggest that Nintendo should have leveraged several other aspects of the Wii's design in producing a 2D Mario game for it. But how, specifically? You say that this game's supposed "visuals, overall presentation, utilization of the remote, [and] central concept" would have been better designed for the Wii, but how is this the case? Why aren't NSMB Wii's visuals, presentation, utilization of the remote and central concept very well designed for the Wii in achieving the game's holistic purpose? It's visuals are clean and simple, and have a retro styling; it utilizes the Wii Remote like a NES controller, channeling further feelings of nostalgia that Nintendo successfully highlighted when promoting the original NSMB; and its central concept is built around one of the core tenant's of the Wii's appeal. (I have not seen enough of the game's presentation to comment on that.)

You also say that the biggest hurdle in terms of achieving success with the game in America will be a lack of online functionality with the title, but I find it hard to believe that the Wii's audience cares about that to any significant degree. The Wii is built around social interaction between multiple players - valuing gaming as a social experience in and of itself - in contrast to the 360 and the PS3, whose audiences seem to value social gaming's competitive or constructive attributes.

The big "legatons" (I've just patented this word FYI) on Wii are Wii Fit and Wii Sports (and to an extent Mario Kart), games that are made of small components that can be returned to at will. NSMB is a linear adventure made up of traditional stages. For this simple reason, I think we're going to it trend a lot closer to SMG or TP. I really can't see anything to justify these 2m+ estimates going round at the moment other than a highly tenuous link to a DS game.

If linearity is so important to a game's success (or lack thereof), then why was NSMB so successful in the first place? Are you trying to argue that there is a fundamental difference between the audiences on the Wii and the DS, whereby the latter is more accepting to this feature than the former?

My point being is that linearity, in essence, isn't a problem. What is a problem is the effects that linearity can have on game design, something that NSMB Wii would avoid. (Namely, the single-player focus of linear games that fosters inaccessibility and demands a large amount of time from the player.)

 

[sixteen-bit]

Sigma 2 is tracking ahead of NG2, right?

 

[Chris1964]

Wii may have the best year end release schedule ever this year but everyone understands that New Super Mario Bros. Wii is the title that Nintendo wants and hope to succeed. There are three titles Iwata has defined as key titles.
Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus and New Super Mario Bros. Wii. Every one of them with 10 million sales this fiscal year. Wii Sports Resort will probably surpass that target and Wii Fit Plus beginning shows that it will also make it.
The difference between these titles and NSMB Wii is that the previous two didn’t manage to increase the install base (at least in Japan). Wii Sports Report may be a true, and updated in every way, sequel to the Wii Sports but the audience for it is already on Wii. Of course it kept the average sales of the console above a level but it was by no means a system seller.
With Wii Fit Plus this was expected since it is Wii Fit 1,1 and the high sales target has been set only from the very low price.
NSMB Wii will determine if Wii will have next year the pathetic first half it had this year. The fact that Nintendo didn’t make a bundle with it, when Tales of Graces and Samurai Warriors 3 have console bundles, shows that they believe very much to this title and the effect it will have on the hardware sales.

 

[hatchx]

This is an honest question for you: How do you think such a game would differ from NSMB Wii? I mean, NSMB Wii offers single-player and (local) multiplayer experiences (with the latter being one of Wii's calling cards, I should think) and it includes various features that make use of the Wii remote. Right now, I can't imagine what else it should include to make it seem more "suited" for the Wii...

Well, even if it is "suited" for wii, it's not doing anything that could be considered this-gen....and guess what....wii is a 'this' gen system.

1. The game could have been made on N64. NSMB64, probably would have looked similar too. Only thing missing would be the waggle fly. Back then, four player mode was a big, relatively exciting new thing. It offers nothing new to the wii library or for current gaming.

2. The game could have better graphics in every possible way- even on wii. It looks like a carbon copy of the DS version.

3. Level Editor. Didn't someone at Nintendo say they were impressed with Little Big Planet? Isn't a DSiware game Mario vs DK have a level editor/share function? Isn't this their big flagship game?



Like I've said, this game will sell millions worldwide, and everyone will beat it and never play it again. This is the type of game Nintendo needed on N64 or even Gamecube.

I get why they are making it, and I'm sure it will be fun, but it doesn't impress me technologically or creatively and I don't think it does for anyone in the industry. It's a game that'd make an excellent wiiware title but it really is an embarrassing holiday flagship title. Sales or no sales how can anyone really deny this?

 

[gerg]

Well, even if it is "suited" for wii, it's not doing anything that could be considered this-gen....and guess what....wii is a 'this' gen system.

Arguably, NSMB Wii is one of the games that channels the current gen the most, as it highlights consumer values that have come into the forefront of gaming (on the Wii, at least) only recently.

1. The game could have been made on N64. NSMB64, probably would have looked similar too. Only thing missing would be the waggle fly. Back then, four player mode was a big, relatively exciting new thing. It offers nothing new to the wii library or for current gaming.

Lots of games "could" have been made on an alternate, older platform, without sacrificing some aspects of the game that may or may not have been relevant to the consumer. I don't see why this is entirely relevant.

Furthermore, as it has been stated before, NSMB Wii does offer something new to the Wii library by offering a traditional 2D Mario that is not only accessible, but also emphasises the values (accessibility and social interaction between multiple players) ion which the Wii's success is built.

2. The game could have better graphics in every possible way- even on wii. It looks like a carbon copy of the DS version.

People routinely bring up NSMB Wii's graphics and design, noting its similarity to the DS title, but I don't see why this is a bad thing. It channels familiarity and nostalgia, not only bringing back memories of the awesome game that you played in 2005 but the awesome game you played in 1985.

3. Level Editor. Didn't someone at Nintendo say they were impressed with Little Big Planet? Isn't a DSiware game Mario vs DK have a level editor/share function? Isn't this their big flagship game?

Why do you think that "editing levels" is actually a major selling-point for most of the Wii's audience?

I get why they are making it, and I'm sure it will be fun, but it doesn't impress me technologically or creatively and I don't think it does for anyone in the industry. It's a game that'd make an excellent wiiware title but it really is an embarrassing holiday flagship title. Sales or no sales how can anyone really deny this?

Because people value different things. What you're demanding of me is similar to arguing that I can't deny that chocolate tastes better than vanilla when it comes to ice cream.

 

[Chris1964]

hatchx is right. NSMB for DS is also an embarrassing title since with a small graphical downgrade it could be done on GBA.

 

[charlequin]

I was answering in the context of this specifically being in a thread about Japan.

Yes, I fully understand that. The point is that since such a revision will be released worldwide, one has to consider all regions when announcing it. It's not necessarily "too soon" to follow up the DSi with a new revision in Japan, but it absolutely is in the US. That's going to be a factor in when such a revision can be announced.

A DSLite-style revision can't as easily wait in one region for as long as the DSi did, since it'll cannibalize current sales more.

Upon consideration, Apple does update the Nano more often than the Classics, although I think when you dig into what's entailed in each change here the number that are comparable to what we're discussing (a significant upgrade which produces a marketing-driven salles bump) is noticeably smaller. The Nano 1 -> Nano 2 change (colors and slightly distinct exterior) is much more equivalent to new colors of the same design of DS, I'd argue, say. The Shuffle just went three years without a revision. The Classic went two years twice.

 

[Somnid]

It would seem like a huge problem in this thread is differentiating what 2D even means. It can be a type of graphical representation, it can be a visual perspective, and it can be a type gameplay limited to planar movement. People are confusing these in the same sentences making most of these arguments incomprehensable.

 

[gerg]

It would seem like a huge problem in this thread is differentiating what 2D even means. It can be a type of graphical representation, it can be a visual perspective, and it can be a type gameplay limited to planar movement. People are confusing these in the same sentences making most of these arguments incomprehensable.

Could you expand on this? I don't see how I would have confused these definitions.

 

[hatchx]

Why do you think that "editing levels" is actually a major selling-point for most of the Wii's audience?

Isn't the point of this discussion whether or not NSMBwii will help the stagnant hardware sales in Japan?

What does appealing to the current audience have to do with anything? Isn't the goal to appeal to new audiences?

My point is that there is simply nothing impressive about the game other than it's NPD and famitsu sales tracking. Beyond the sales perspective, as a game, it's unimpressive to gamers and it will be unimpressive to casual consumers. No one is going to buy a wii for this game. This game will not help hardware sales more than a short burst.

Something new (level editor), something standard in this generation (online), or something impressive (new visual style?) would have helped this title in the gaming media and with consumers.

That's all I'm trying to say.

 

[gerg]

Isn't the point of this discussion whether or not NSMBwii will help the stagnant hardware sales in Japan?

What does appealing to the current audience have to do with anything? Isn't the goal to appeal to new audiences?

Of course. However, I wouldn't then say that the way to do so is to feature level editing prominently within the game. Although the thematic differences make the games hard to compare (perhaps to the point of a meaninglessness comparison), we may suggest that Wii Music's lack of appeal is representative of a disinterest in creative customisation within the expanded audience.

I think that the combination of values I have described above - both thematic and otherwise - should be enough to entice potential consumers to the Wii. Of course, I may be wrong.

Beyond the sales perspective, as a game, it's unimpressive to gamers and it will be unimpressive to casual consumers.

It's unimpressive to you. You seem to extrapolate your preferences onto every single gamer or potential gamer there is. I don't see how such a method is in any way defensible.

No one is going to buy a wii for this game. This game will not help hardware sales more than a short burst.

That's all I'm trying to say.

Fair enough. But when you base such an evaluation entirely on the values that you prefer in a game - rather than those that the Wii's potential audience would enjoy - we have every reason to doubt the validity and accuracy of such an analysis.

 

[Somnid]

Could you expand on this? I don't think that I've confused such definitions.

Well games like Super Mario Bros 1/2/3/ and Super Mario World are 2D in the sense that the graphics are sprites. They would also be 2D in that the visual perspective is looking into a layered diorama showing only one face, and 2D in that the movement is all in one plane.

Paper Mario is 3D because all graphics both are and act like 3D primitives. The visual perspective is 2D, but the movement is multi-planar so that part is 3D.

Super Paper Mario is 2D in all categories most of the time, but a good 1/3 isn't.

Super Mario RPG is 2D is because it uses sprites, the perspective is 3D, and movements are multi-planar so it's 3D in that way.

Super Mario Kart would be 3D in graphics, 3D in perspective and 2D in gameplay.

NSMB is 3D in graphics, 2D in perspective and gameplay.

All of these qualify as "2D Marios." Notice how even if people were specifying what they are talking about there's a world of difference across games sharing the same attributes.

A game like Mario Galaxy is 3D in all categories, obviously.

 

[gerg]

Well games like Super Mario Bros 1/2/3/ and Super Mario World are 2D in the sense that the graphics are sprites. They would also be 2D in that the visual perspective is looking into a layered diorama showing only one face, and 2D in that the movement is all in one plane.

Paper Mario is 3D because all graphics both are and act like 3D primitives. The visual perspective is 2D, but the movement is multi-planar so that part is 3D.

Super Paper Mario is 2D in all categories most of the time, but a good 1/3 isn't.

Super Mario RPG is 2D is because it uses sprites, the perspective is 3D, and movements are multi-planar so it's 3D in that way.

Super Mario Kart would be 3D in graphics, 3D in perspective and 2D in gameplay.

NSMB is 3D in graphics, 2D in perspective and gameplay.

All of these qualify as "2D Marios." Notice how even if people were specifying what they are talking about there's a world of difference across games sharing the same attributes.

A game like Mario Galaxy is 3D in all categories, obviously.

I understand. To cover my bases, I'll state that when I refer to a "2D Mario" I mean one akin to the NES and/or SNES platformers - games where the perspective and gameplay all cover a single plane.

 

[hatchx]

It's unimpressive to you. You seem to extrapolate your preferences onto every single gamer or potential gamer there is. I don't see how such a method is in any way defensible.

I don't think it's just me. It seems as if the gaming journalist world as a whole isn't too excited. No one is considering this game to be GOTY, and no one is going to argue when it gets sub-9.0 review scores.

What impressed you about the game, honestly? Other than the sales potential.

 

[V_Arnold]

What impressed you about the game, honestly? Other than the sales potential.

Seriously, what are we NOT impressed about NSMBWii?
You can try hard and then a little bit harder for hours, but you can simply not name ONE Mario platformer which failed to deliver in the last 20 years.

One can argue if Mario Bros 3 is better than 2, or if the Sunshine was unneccessarily hard and "uninspired", but if we go in even further, and narrow it to 2d platform level, Nintendo's Mario platformer track record is plain flawless.

So going by this logic, one should not try hard to defend it, but exactly the other way around: one should try hard trying to "attack" it, or downplay its appeal (sales or quality-wise).

It might be hard to impress someone with some pictures or a few 0.30-1.30 videos. Go play a Mario platformer for a few hours (pick one randomly, do not care), and try not being impressed. Try hard

 

[gerg]

I don't think it's just me. It seems as if the gaming journalist world as a whole isn't too excited. No one is considering this game to be GOTY, and no one is going to argue when it gets sub-9.0 review scores.

By contrast, I believe there were several highly positive reports floating around after the preview of the latest build by Nintendo. MTV Games even compared the game to Contra.

What impressed you about the game, honestly? Other than the sales potential.

Why can't what impresses me about NSMB Wii be its sales? I rarely play games nowadays, and I know that I will probably never buy NSMB Wii, like most other games. As a result, I find it hard to be excited about any of the gameplay elements, or anything about the game that requires me playing it. What engages me about most regarding games is discussing them and their sales. Stepping outside this, I might also suggest elements of the game relating to design and art - I enjoyed discussing the game's box art, for example.

Nevertheless, despite this view I am still able to step outside my personal preferences to understand why some people might find the game impressive in other contexts and for other reasons.

 

[onken]

I do think it's interesting that with all of this hemming and hawing, few people seem to want to make a prediction about NSMB Wii's sales. I've seen one person suggest the title will launch with about 700k in sales and end up at about 3 million, and I earlier stated my belief that it will sell somewhere between 2 and 3 million when all is said and done. What do others think?

4-500k fw, 1-1.2m lt.

 

[HK-47]

Huh. Don't see why a new DS would be needed.

I will laugh if they come up with a new revision so soon. Just an extra reason to hold off on DSi.

 

[donny2112]

4-500k fw, 1-1.2m lt.

Shock and Awe. Worst.Mario.Game.Legs.EVAR!

Edit:
Since I was curious ...

1st week % of LTD
WII SMG - 26.6%
GCN Super Mario Sunshine - 35.5%
N64 Super Mario 64 - 9.4%
NDS NSMB - 15.6%
NDS SM64DS - 10.3%
GBA SMAdvance - 25.1%
GBA SMA2 - 12.3%
GBA SMA4 - 14.7%
GBOY SMBDX - 29.9%


Between 2 and 3 million sounds about right. Probably close to/right at 2 million by the first week of January. 550-650K first week.

Just an extra reason to hold off on DSi.

I have no problem if the next revision is the DSLite to the DSi. I stayed on the original DS until DSi, so I don't have a problem skipping another no-new-game-playing revision.

 

[d+pad]

4-500k fw, 1-1.2m lt.

I could see your FW number being correct, if a little low, but the LT? Even AC:CF has reached that number. Still, to each his own. We'll know soon enough, won't we?

 

[d+pad]

I understand. To cover my bases, I'll state that when I refer to a "2D Mario" I mean one akin to the NES and/or SNES platformers - games where the perspective and gameplay all cover a single plane.

+1 for me.

Also, I think it should be stated that, in general, I don't think games that are 2D (in terms of perspective and gameplay covering a single plane) are all that appealing to today's gamers (other than retro-obsessed gamers). However, when it comes to honest-to-goodness Mario platformers (meaning, not Mario Kart, not Paper Mario, not Super Paper Mario, etc.) I do think it's important - to the masses - that the game be "2D." It reminds people of the original SMB - the game that "started it all" for many, even if they never owned/played another game.

 

[Nirolak]

I was curious so I decided to check some attach rates. Was the DS original figure ever rolled into the DS Lite figure we report now or should I go back and edit the DS hardware total? To note, these are using the hardware totals from last week, and are inherently slightly flawed as the DS and Wii will continue to sell when NSMB Wii is released.

Approximations: (Obviously the DS and Wii hardware counts will go up while these games sell)

DSLite + DSi: 21,269,920
NSMB: 5,535,730
Attach Rate: 26.03%

Wii: 8,502,853
NSMB Wii GAF Prediction 1: 2,000,000
Attach Rate: 23.5%
NSMB Wii GAF Prediction 2: 2,600,000
Attach Rate: 30.6%
NSMB Wii GAF Prediction 3: 3,000,000
Attach Rate: 35.3%

 

[legend166]

I don't think it's just me. It seems as if the gaming journalist world as a whole isn't too excited. No one is considering this game to be GOTY, and no one is going to argue when it gets sub-9.0 review scores.

What impressed you about the game, honestly? Other than the sales potential.

Did you just miss the hugely glowing previews that came out over the last week, at pretty much every online site?

There's been comparisons to Super Mario Bros 3, 'Hard as Contra', 'super-hardcore', and a bunch of other superlatives.

You should go read up on it.

I've never seen such ignorance about a game. People seem to be doing it willingly, too.

 

[jett]

Famitsu Sep 21-27

01./01. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 166,244 / 2,067,609 (-66%)
02./05. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Friend Collection) (Nintendo) - 89,801 / 1,156,103 (+23%)
03./02. [PS3] Tales of Vesperia (Namco Bandai Games) - 44,959 / 272,465 (-80%)
04./03. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu Portable 4 (Konami) - 43,239 / 151,146 (-60%)
05./10. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 34,467 / 1,194,491 (+21%)
06./08. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 33,737 / 3,925,285 (-5%)
07./00. [360] Halo 3: ODST (Microsoft Game Studios) - 33,020 / NEW
08./04. [NDS] SaGa 2 Legendary Secret Treasure: Goddess of Destiny (Square Enix) - 29,488 / 130,051 (-71%)
09./06. [PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 4 (Konami) - 14,117 / 66,352 (-73%)
10./15. [PS3] Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (BEST) (Square Enix) - 10,706 / 40,818

11./18. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom) - 10,564 / 1,007,098 (-8%)
12./07. [PSP] Ys 7 (Falcom) - 10,286 / 53,102 (-76%)
13./20. [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 9,062 / 908,693 (+2%)
14./19. [NDS] Sloane and MacHale's Mysterious Story 2 (Level 5) - 8,100 / 52,141 (-16%)
15./11. [WII] Forever Blue 2: Call of the Sea (Nintendo) - 7,669 / 25,171 (-56%)
16./16. [PS3] Kidou Senshi Gundam Senki: Lost War Chronicles (Namco Bandai Games) - 6,780 / 210,092 (-42%)
17./17. [NDS] Love Plus (Konami) - 6,438 / 81,279 (-44%)
18./27. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 6,345 / 3,536,288 (+19%)
19./29. [NDS] Penguin no Mondai X: Tenkuu no 7 Senshi (A Penguin's Troubles X: 7 Warriors of the Sky) (Konami) - 6,108 / 145,937 (+21%)
20./26. [NDS] Puyo Puyo 7 (SEGA) - 5,837 / 169,181 (+3%)
21./28. [NDS] You'll Incur Losses if You Remain Ignorant: How Money and Things Work DS (Nintendo) - 4,784 / 47,080 (-5%)
22./14. [PSP] 428: Fuusa Sareta Shibuya de (Spike) - 4,724 / 20,656 (-70%)
23./13. [PSP] Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! Battle Arena 2 - Spirits Burst (Marvelous) - 4,507 / 20,471 (-72%)
24./00. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 3,963 / 2,332,563
25./23. [PSP] Taikou Risshiden V (Koei) - 3,924 / 10,902 (-44%)
26./09. [NDS] The Idolm@ster: Dearly Stars (Namco Bandai Games) - 3,912 / 37,307 (-88%)
27./30. [PSP] Way of the Samurai 2 Portable (Spike) - 3,734 / 26,679 (-23%)
28./00. [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) - 3,623 / 5,073,967
29./00. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) - 3,386 / 3,508,371
30./00. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriot (BEST) (Konami) - 3,329 / 37,167



Bar Chart Sep 21-27 (thanks to JoshuaJSlone/garaph.info)

Note: Image may be delayed from the time of this post, but will automatically show once the data is ready.


Recent Famitsu Top 30s

Aug 24-30, 2009
Aug 31-Sep 6, 2009
Sep 7-13, 2009
Sep 14-20, 2009

Wow EPIC drop for NGS2.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

2. The game could have better graphics in every possible way- even on wii. It looks like a carbon copy of the DS version.

Uh, no? NSMBWii might have the exact same style as NSMB DS, but its graphical fidelity is several magnitudes higher. Just because it isn't dark gritty and matoor doesn't mean Mario has sharp knees on the Wii.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Wow EPIC drop for NGS2.

Is this a joke?