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[Garcia]

Week 01: 374.764 (Launch: February 2011)
Week 02: 209.623
Week 03: 96.463
Week 04: 61.394
Week 05: 50.710
Week 06: 42.979
Week 07: 32.910
Week 08: 28.252
Week 09: 23.038
Week 10: 28.413
Week 11: 29.149
Week 12: 18.324
Week 13: 17.240 (1+ million)
Week 14: 24.283
Week 15: 27.357
Week 16: 24.649
Week 17: 40.649 (Ocarina of Time 3D)
Week 18: 27.905
Week 19: 30.233
Week 20: 22.943
Week 21: 46.637 (Star Fox 64 3D + New color: Red)
Week 22: 31,826
Week 23: 16.415 (Price drop announced)
Week 24: 4.132
Week 25: 196.077 (New price + Pokemon Rumble Blast)

Judging by those numbers alone Vita and 3DS are moving along quite similarly.

 

[Mpl90]

PSP Famitsu top 30


[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 2.146.467 / 4.502.466 / 47,67% 01/12/10
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) - 823.265 / 2.453.132 / 33,56% 27/03/08
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) - 746.313 / 1.723.187 / 43,31% 22/02/07
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best] (Capcom) - 19.829 / 1.111.876 / 1,78% 30/10/08
[PSP] Dissidia: Final Fantasy (Square Enix) - 503.723 / 902.398 / 55,82% 18/12/08
[PSP] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII (Square Enix) - 470.152 / 809.825 / 58,06% 13/09/07
[PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker (Konami) - 446.133 / 780.969 / 57,13% 29/04/10
[PSP] Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep (Square Enix) - 456.453 / 733.248 / 62,25% 09/01/10
[PSP] Final Fantasy Type 0 (Square Enix) - 503.388 / 696.428 / 72,28% 27/10/11
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom (Capcom) - 118.317 / 668.964 / 17,69% 01/12/05
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable (Sega) - 329.455 / 636.973 / 51,72% 31/07/08
[PSP] God Eater (Bandai Namco) - 276.104 / 617.828 / 44,69% 04/02/10
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 284.883 / 590.527 / 48,24% 03/12/09
[PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G [PSP the Best] (Capcom) - 5.904 / 534.323 / 1,10% 24/12/09
[PSP] Monster Hunter Diaryoka Poka Airu Village (Capcom) - 280.521 / 516.000 / 54,36% 26/08/10
[PSP] Dissidia 012 (Duodecim): Final Fantasy (Square Enix) - 304.789 / 461.086 / 66,10% 03/03/11
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam (Bandai Namco) - 240.594 / 415.891 / 57,85% 20/11/08
[PSP] God Eater Burst (Bandai Namco) - 267.178 / 408.395 / 65,42% 28/10/10
[PSP] Hot Shots Golf: Open Tee (SCE) - 66.079 / 399.257 / 16,55% 12/12/04
[PSP] Dai-2-Ji Super Robot Wars Z: Hakai-hen (Sega) - 280.896 / 398.017 / 70,57% 14/04/11
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Bandai Namco) - 237.652 / 394.953 / 60,17% 03/12/09
[PSP] Dynasty Warriors: Strikeforce (Koei) - 227.309 / 384.336 / 59,14% 26/02/09
[PSP] AKB1/48: If you love an idol (Bandai Namco) - 235.944 / 379.851 / 62,11% 23/12/10
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2: Infinity (Sega) - 219.477 / 373.309 / 58,79% 24/02/11
[PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Portable 3 (Konami) - 109.436 / 362.087 / 30,22% 29/05/08
[PSP] AKB1/48: Idol to Guam de Koishitara (Bandai Namco) - 256.504 / 362.059 / 70,85% 06/10/11
[PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Portable Ops (Konami) - 138.632 / 358.277 / 38,69% 21/12/06
[PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Portable Ops Plus (Konami) - 88.940 / 355.916 / 24,99% 20/09/07
[PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2nd (Sega) - 242.717 / 341.663 / 71,04% 29/07/10
[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation: World (Bandai Namco) - 222.790 / 336.699 / 66,17% 24/02/11
[PSP] Little Battler Xperience (Level 5) - 163.834 / 324.204 / 50,53% 16/06/11

@Road: But I remember MHP2nd was strongly supply constrained...

 

[AceBandage]

How the mighty have fallen.

That's what happens when you take over half a generation to release a game after you've announced it.

 

[Souldriver]

Judging by those numbers alone Vita and 3DS are moving along quite similarly.

I think the only big, and probably significant, difference is that the Vita launched in december, while the 3DS released in a quiet period of the year. So comparatively, the Vita should do better numbers than the 3DS did during its first few weeks.

 

[Why would you do that?]

Around 500K give or take.

I'm curious about how some previously console games will sell on the 3DS, like Luigi's Mansion and Paper Mario. I know the 3DS isn't a magic system, but I guess I wouldn't be surprised if all of those games sold more on 3DS.

 

[Takao]

If anyone's curious, as of September, Polyphony Digital's website lists 630k copies of GT5 being shipped in Japan.

I think the only big, and probably significant, difference is that the Vita launched in december, while the 3DS released in a quiet period of the year. So comparatively, the Vita should do better numbers than the 3DS did during its first few weeks.

That, and the fact that 3DS opened much larger, and had a much better hold in its second week before confronting one of the worst natural disasters Japan has had in recent history.

 

[Chris1964]

I'm curious about how some previously console games will sell on the 3DS, like Luigi's Mansion and Paper Mario. I know the 3DS isn't a magic system, but I guess I wouldn't be surprised if all of those games sold more on 3DS.

For Paper Mario, Mario & Luigi could be used as comparison. Luigi's Mansion is like Kid Icarus: Wait and see

 

[Celine]

I'm curious about how some previously console games will sell on the 3DS, like Luigi's Mansion and Paper Mario. I know the 3DS isn't a magic system, but I guess I wouldn't be surprised if all of those games sold more on 3DS.

For Paper is a good guess ( 500K compared to 400K of the N64/GC games ) but I'm not so faithful for Luigi's Mansion.

 

[electroplankton]

Eventually, the second AKB49 went to sell on par with the first one, despite a lower opening.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Big sales for the top 3DS software. Nintendogs also popped its head up and looks like it will pass the 500K soon which is pretty decent, will be interesting to see where it ends up.

As for the vita the next few months on the software side look pretty barren. Unless there is a big suprise sales i think we are going to see some really low sales.

 

[Mpl90]

However, wrowa is partly wrong. In fact, I'm one of those who downloaded Chris1964's database a while ago and since then I'm uploading it, even if only with Famitsu datas. So I could give you datas for other consoles, and ancient weeks, and I've already done it in the past, even if I prefer to use Media Create for the hardware. XD

 

[Chris1964]

Eventually, the second AKB49 went to sell on par with the first one, despite a lower opening.

With the price collapse it had it was expected.

 

[Celine]

If anyone's curious, as of September, Polyphony Digital's website lists 630k copies of GT5 being shipped in Japan.



That, and the fact that 3DS opened much larger, and had a much better hold in its second week before confronting one of the worst natural disasters Japan has had in recent history.

Yes, what Garcia is right is that PSV is likely to experience a similar downturn (only lower).
I'm expecting some quite low hw weeks in the first quarter.

 

[electroplankton]

With the price collapse it had it was expected.

Ahhh, that's why!

 

[mclem]

Top 20

WII - 9
3DS - 5
NDS - 2
PS3 - 2
PSP - 2

There's something bizarrely *seasonal* about the Wii in Japan. Big family time -> Wii game sales?

It's not anything like that dominant in the rest of the year, but it does seem to have utterly cornered that market.

 

[Chris1964]

...I'm one of those who downloaded Chris1964's database...

Speaking for the database the original schedule was to give an update this December but in the end the adds demand way more time. Best scenario right now is March and worst is June.

 

[mclem]

For Paper Mario, Mario & Luigi could be used as comparison. Luigi's Mansion is like Kid Icarus: Wait and see

My gut's telling me that Luigi's Mansion might have significant legs. I'm not thinking that about Kid Icarus. Assuming it's consistent with the GC title it's visually appealing, simple at heart but interestingly complex, and tied to the Mario universe. I think it *could* catch peoples' imagination.

But that's purely a gut feeling,

 

[Takao]

I'm mixing trackers here, but Dengeki reported a 35% sell through for Inazuma Eleven: Go week one, putting the first shipment at 400k. 75k left to go! Has it appeared in any bomba bins yet? ;p

Ahhh, that's why!

Weren't they shipped in those absurdly large boxes as well? I can see why stores would want to get rid of them quickly.

 

[DCharlie]

Didn't have an issue with the predictions myself, it did however get annoying the way he came across like he totally knew best and anyone that argued against it should just sit back and wait and see how he's gonna be right instead of discuss and present counter arguments. At least he seemed to realise that was OTT and started adding smilies and stuff in the posts after a point though.

there's no point in making a silent prediction - might as well provide some amusement along the way. There were plenty of argument/counter arguments - to the point people were throwing stale fruit and telling us to shut up. Aren't you yourself keen to blow the bluster horn with your opinion (i.e in every Iphone/ipad thread?) ? Certainly seems that way - nothing wrong with that, place would be dull if everyone just sat around being curtious.

I knew that it was a duff prediction after the second week, but that's just the way things go. All fun, will play again for the next MH game

 

[AceBandage]

There's something bizarrely *seasonal* about the Wii in Japan. Big family time -> Wii game sales?

It's not anything like that dominant in the rest of the year, but it does seem to have utterly cornered that market.

Nintendo just needs to buy Christmas and make it into a quarterly thing.

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

Cant wait for Vita to drop to $100. Ill get one.

 

[AndrewDean84xX]

Wait till WiiU releases, then we will have 2 platforms to talk about.

I'm very excited to see what Nintendo has planned with the Wii U and 3DS and what they'll do together.

 

[Dalthien]

How the mighty have fallen.

Even though it opened poorly, I thought that if any PS3 game had a shot at legs, it would be GT5. I figured it would continue to sell over time as PS2 owners eventually migrated to PS3. It didn't pan out.

Nintendogs also popped its head up and looks like it will pass the 500K soon which is pretty decent, will be interesting to see where it ends up.

I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see Nintendogs+Cats eventually cross the million mark. As the userbase has picked up, this title has developed into a constant slow burner (much like the original title), and as more casual and younger skewing stuff gets released (like Animal Crossing, Tomodachi, Mario Party, etc.), I can see Nintendogs continuing to chug along under the radar. It will take a couple years to get there, but I really wouldn't be surprised to see it make it.

 

[Boney]

wait what's wrong with pilotwings

 

[Rhod]

There's something bizarrely *seasonal* about the Wii in Japan. Big family time -> Wii game sales?

It's not really bizarre when you see the ad campaigns. Or the family software lineup, which even if it's not to your taste, is of a very high quality.

Wii is pretty unbeatable, in all of gaming history, at lighthearted multiplayer gaming.

 

[AceBandage]

wait what's wrong with pilotwings

Needed more islands but the game itself was extremely good.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

there's no point in making a silent prediction - might as well provide some amusement along the way. There were plenty of argument/counter arguments - to the point people were throwing stale fruit and telling us to shut up. Aren't you yourself keen to blow the bluster horn with your opinion (i.e in every Iphone/ipad thread?) ? Certainly seems that way - nothing wrong with that, place would be dull if everyone just sat around being curtious.

I knew that it was a duff prediction after the second week, but that's just the way things go. All fun, will play again for the next MH game

Good on you

What do you think of the continued hold for the game, though? Do you think it's starting to slip into the leggy-as-hell stage previous MH (handheld) titles have entered after the initial flurry is over, or do you expect it to drop off quickly post-holiday?

 

[Takao]

Surprisingly, Inazuma Strikers 2012 has done very well, and is only tracking 2k behind the original, though the holiday boost is the reason it's that close.

 

[Galactic Fork]

wait what's wrong with pilotwings

Needed more islands, and more special rewards like the angel wings, penguin suit, and cannon. Plus no skydiving automatically makes it dead to me (no, one level of squirrel suit doesn't count).

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Needed more islands, and more special rewards like the angel wings, penguin suit, and cannon. Plus no skydiving automatically makes it dead to me (no, one level of squirrel suit doesn't count).

Yup. Pilotwings NEEDS a sequel, building on what Monster & Nintendo did so right in the first 3DS game and adding lots of content.

Including LOOOOOTTTTSS of Squirrel Suit!

 

[Boney]

Needed more islands, and more special rewards like the angel wings, penguin suit, and cannon. Plus no skydiving automatically makes it dead to me (no, one level of squirrel suit doesn't count).

but the squirrels and the gliding was so gooood

 

[Galactic Fork]

but the squirrels and the gliding was so gooood

ONE LEVEL!!

 

[Boney]

ONE LEVEL!!

yeah maybe, I never played PW64, only the SNES one so that's why I wasn't too bothered by it perhaps.

But's it's not a turd. >.>

 

[Road]

Guesstimation warning

Mixing Famitsu's weekly shares and MC's weekly software totals for a complete total:

2011 software sales in millions of units (Media Create calendar):

PSP	14.5
PS3	13.0
WII	 8.9
3DS	 8.0
NDS	 7.4
360	 1.5
PSV	 0.5
PS2	 0.1
Others   0.1

Total	53.9

 

[Takao]

Next week sees the release of the first post-launch Vita game in WipEout 2048. Here's the performance of past WipEout games in Japan (via Famitsu):

[PS1] Wipeout (SCE) - 14,506 / 14,506
[PS1] Wipeout XL (SCE) - 19,918 / 34,788
[PSP] Wipeout Pure (SCE) - 7,192 / 22,455

They've performed so well that SCEJ didn't bother localizing most of them...

Over/Under on 2048 debuting in the top 30? Do keep in mind that Pure launched on PSP in Summer 2005.

 

[Alexios]

there's no point in making a silent prediction - might as well provide some amusement along the way. There were plenty of argument/counter arguments - to the point people were throwing stale fruit and telling us to shut up.

Don't think anyone else's points devolved into "ya but I'm right so wait and see" but if that happened then the same goes for them.

Aren't you yourself keen to blow the bluster horn with your opinion (i.e in every Iphone/ipad thread?) ? Certainly seems that way - nothing wrong with that, place would be dull if everyone just sat around being curtious.

Every thread? I highly doubt that. Perhaps you also ignore the positive things I have to say of it? Or is this another post aiming for amusement? Not that what I think of games and platforms for myself is at all similar.

I knew that it was a duff prediction after the second week, but that's just the way things go.

Yeah, that's about when you started going for the amusement twist too. Aaanyway, don't really care about predictions, but you certainly stood out so if that was your goal, congrats, don't be surprised people aren't forgetting it already.

 

[Admiral Bone to Pick]

2012 is looking to be a repeat of the Nintendomination of 2006-2008 or so unless the Vita picks up. If the Wii U launch is successful, Sony will have a tough time in the fall season.

 

[liger05]

given what happened with the original 3ds price what do people think the eventual revision will sell for $179 or $199?

You lot think Nintendo shareholders are still desperate to see ninty make ios games or now realise just how important the exclusive Nintendo games are for its own hardware.

 

[DCharlie]

What do you think of the continued hold for the game, though? Do you think it's starting to slip into the leggy-as-hell stage previous MH (handheld) titles have entered after the initial flurry is over, or do you expect it to drop off quickly post-holiday?

MH3G - there's something i've been thinking about that might see sales increase over the year, so i think it'll potentially go on and on and on.

Bear in mind MH3G went down to 4480 for a short while, and now it's been back up at 4980-5200 yen new so not only is it holding sales numbers it's still at a pretty good price brand new.

Obviously they've not migrated that PSP userbase yet - but it'll all depend on the next 6-8 months i guess. A Vita "Portable" game (NOT HD Portable) may have a knock on effect but i can still see it selling.

 

[Thoraxes]

Now i'm starting to wonder if/when Vita will have a price drop.

I mean, I don't expect to see anything concrete until it's been launched in all regions for a little while, but now i'm seriously debating holding off from launch and just waiting till P4G in NA or a price drop, whichever comes first. The first half of 2012 is going to be very interesting, and E3 hype is gonna be crazy this year.

 

[Takao]

DCCharlie, do you tend to post on a tablet, or a phone? Your replies to people always seem to be missing the original message sender's name, haha.

So Mr. Serious Business brought up a decent point, what do you guys think Sony's going to do with PS3 in 2012? Sales were down ever so slightly year-over-year in 2011 despite the price cut. I'd like to see Sony drop the price below 20,000 yen - maybe have another case revision and launch that with Move bundled in every unit, though they may be selling at a loss with that scenario. I think now's the year SCEJ should stress the PS3 as a family console, especially with The Last Guardian likely to see release.

 

[thestopsign]

DCCharlie, do you tend to post on a tablet, or a phone? Your replies to people always seem to be missing the original message sender's name, haha.

So Mr. Serious Business brought up a decent point, what do you guys think Sony's going to do with PS3 in 2012? Sales were down ever so slightly year-over-year in 2011 despite the price cut. I'd like to see Sony drop the price below 20,000 yen - maybe have another case revision and launch that with Move bundled in every unit, though they may be selling at a loss with that scenario. I think now's the year SCEJ should stress the PS3 as a family console, especially with The Last Guardian likely to see release.

The PS3 had some really great software support over the course of 2011. It was both well spaced and varied enough to keep the base interested. The only thing I see coming in 2012 to boost HW is a pricedrop. There isn't much software in the pipeline that is going to open up new opportunities for Sony.

 

[DCharlie]

Yeah, that's about when you started going for the amusement twist too. Aaanyway, don't really care about predictions, but you certainly stood out so if that was your goal, congrats, don't be surprised people aren't forgetting it already.

You have an awful lot to say for someone who doesn't really care. I assume you too are going for the amusement angle?

 

[Gravijah]

Okay, last call before we start banning for this. That's a warning to everyone, not just james.

thank you

 

[thestopsign]

You have an awful lot to say for someone who doesn't really care. I assume you too are going for the amusement angle?

I'm quoting this post to troll you about your failed predictions even though you have admitted you were wrong!

 

[DCharlie]

I'm quoting this post to troll you about your failed predictions even though you have admitted you were wrong!

hey, i do care about the 3DS -and- Monster Hunter. It wasn't a prediction of doom based on the quality of the system or the game, just a gut feeling about what was going to happen with sales.

Happily playing MHTriG.

Again, i don't want to shit up another thread with discussion about the prediction - it's frankly boring me ATM. I was wrong, i had fun with it, it got some peoples knickers in a twist, and i will absolutely do it again for any predictions i make - and i'll once again have fun with it. *shrug*

 

[Celine]

Now i'm starting to wonder if/when Vita will have a price drop.

I mean, I don't expect to see anything concrete until it's been launched in all regions for a little while, but now i'm seriously debating holding off from launch and just waiting till P4G in NA or a price drop, whichever comes first. The first half of 2012 is going to be very interesting, and E3 hype is gonna be crazy this year.

it's obviously "when".
It really depend on what Sony want from Vita ( i.e. how much money Sony can accept to lose to gain marketshare and third party support)and how strong software support is in these months ( cutting the price alone won't resolve the problem ).

 

[thestopsign]

hey, i do care about the 3DS -and- Monster Hunter. It wasn't a prediction of doom based on the quality of the system or the game, just a gut feeling about what was going to happen with sales.

Happily playing MHTriG.

Again, i don't want to shit up another thread with discussion about the prediction - it's frankly boring me ATM. I was wrong, i had fun with it, it got some peoples knickers in a twist, and i will absolutely do it again for any predictions i make - and i'll once again have fun with it. *shrug*

You don't have to get defensive, I was actually making fun of everyone else beating a dead horse.

 

[Gravijah]

You don't have to get defensive, I was actually making fun of everyone else beating a dead horse.

you're like a making fun of double agent

 

[Dalthien]

Happily playing MHTriG.

So you finally picked it up? I remember that you didn't think you'd start it because you had already invested so much time into MHP3.