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Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2017 (Jan 09 - Jan 15)

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Capcom actually went in pretty hard on the 3DS, but several of those product lines did poorly, so I don't think it's shocking they would be notably more cautious this go around.

That's true of most publishers so far. I think the only one who is actually more present than last time is Square Enix, who is similarly the PS4's biggest Japanese supporter.
 

SalvaPot

Member
In a way, MonHun is very similar to Pokemon in that they always try to serve to the biggest base possible.

They will come.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Capcpom seems to be very lukewarm about switch support... No MH XX, no great ace attorney, no rep at the event, an overpriced late port at launch... What's happening? They have been one the best third party support on 3DS.

The switch is not the 3DS. 3DS lowers development costs and allows them to stay below a certain 'range' because of its limited specs as a non HD platform as well as inherent built in base after 6 years. Switch does not, as due to its architecture, Capcom will be pressured to invest in more HD develpent for the console than they have been, thus driving up dev costs, something they have been actively avoiding.

They are basically having to go to console level development without a base. Moreover, its unproven.

The games will come, but i would expect to see some of them go multiplatform as a consequence of having to spread out the investment dollars.
 

random25

Member
Capcpom seems to be very lukewarm about switch support... No MH XX, no great ace attorney, no rep at the event, an overpriced late port at launch... What's happening? They have been one the best third party support on 3DS.

I wouldn't be worried this early. I'll worry when there's no big Capcom game after a year.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I'm actually curious to see how much of an impact the Switch's hardware has on the industry.

It's going to take a lot longer and a lot more money to make every game to that specification.

It'll be interesting to see how Octopath does relative to Bravely Default, because that's one of the few games we see rejecting the notion of trying to put out high end visuals on the system, whereas Bravely Default was a top end title when it came out.
 

KtSlime

Member
Capcpom seems to be very lukewarm about switch support... No MH XX, no great ace attorney, no rep at the event, an overpriced late port at launch... What's happening? They have been one the best third party support on 3DS.

Capcom is lukewarm about everything cause they are almost broke. They will get there if they don't die first.
 

duckroll

Member
Capcpom seems to be very lukewarm about switch support... No MH XX, no great ace attorney, no rep at the event, an overpriced late port at launch... What's happening? They have been one the best third party support on 3DS.

Nothing is happening. Ask yourself what Capcom's support on the WiiU was like. For 2017, the Switch is the replacement for the WiiU. It is a home console. Does Capcom have any active WiiU franchise to migrate to Switch? No? That's your answer there. If you think they are going to jump on board and move all their 3DS projects planned for 2017 to Switch instead, you're delusional. No third party is doing that. Even Nintendo themselves aren't doing that.

2018 will be the year the Switch migrates to handheld status in Japan, and late 2017 is the earliest we'll be seeing actual portable franchises hitting the Switch. I've been saying this for months, but somehow there's this pointless panic every time a 3DS title is announced.
 
2018 will be the year the Switch migrates to handheld status in Japan, and late 2017 is the earliest we'll be seeing actual portable franchises hitting the Switch. I've been saying this for months, but somehow there's this pointless panic every time a 3DS title is announced.

Lady Layton will never be on the Switch in 2017, Nintendo screwed the pooch on this one!
 

duckroll

Member
Lady Layton will never be on the Switch in 2017, Nintendo screwed the pooch on this one!

Lady Layton will be reannounced as a Switch/PS4 action RPG in 2018. Then in 2020 it'll be reannounced as a social RPG for VR, while Layton 7 resurfaces as a real life Escape Room. Level-5 banzai.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Nothing is happening. Ask yourself what Capcom's support on the WiiU was like. For 2017, the Switch is the replacement for the WiiU. It is a home console. Does Capcom have any active WiiU franchise to migrate to Switch? No? That's your answer there. If you think they are going to jump on board and move all their 3DS projects planned for 2017 to Switch instead, you're delusional. No third party is doing that. Even Nintendo themselves aren't doing that.

2018 will be the year the Switch migrates to handheld status in Japan, and late 2017 is the earliest we'll be seeing actual portable franchises hitting the Switch. I've been saying this for months, but somehow there's this pointless panic every time a 3DS title is announced.

the panic is justified by the hybrid concept (that brought compromises to the new "home console") being scrapped of any means by the "home only" approach they choose
I understand that on paper, next year without the 3DS and maybe with a possible price cut and the move of Nintendo's IPs to the Switch to the 3DS, it could still be possible for them to position it also as a portable, but if the response of the market will be disappointing to the Home console Switch as it has been to the Wii U, I struggle to see Nintendo to successfully rebrand the console, especially among third parties (that are always ready to abandon the Nintendo ship)
 

duckroll

Member
the panic is justified by the hybrid concept (that brought compromises to the new "home console") being scrapped by the "home only" approach they choose
I understand that on paper, next year without the 3DS and maybe with a possible price cut and the move of Nintendo's IPs to the Switch to the 3DS, it could still be possible for them to position it also as a portable, but if the response of the market will be disappointing to the Home console Switch as it has been to the Wii U, I struggle to see Nintendo to successfully rebrand the console, especially among third parties (that are always ready to abandon the Nintendo ship)

This is all anxiety nonsense though. If the Switch ultimately fails, it will not be because of anything other than it being a product no one wants. If people want it, it will succeed. All the talk about "branding" being damaged or the early launch "souring" people is just silly stuff fanboys get worked up about. The reality is that we have never seen a single hardware launch where the long term prospects of the device is determined by the first year. The perception a system has 1.5 to 2 years from launch is usually what determines the fate of the system. The first year is just for enthusiasts and early adopters. Good word of mouth can help, bad word of mouth might make fans feel more anxious, but in the end we've seen companies turn it around over and over again. We have also seen systems with really good early word of mouth completely flatline because they couldn't compete when it counted later in the lifespan.

So take a chill pill and relax. The fact that you use "panic" says a lot. No one is panicking. Not Nintendo. Not third parties. Not the people who pre-ordered the Switch. Just you.
 

Shengar

Member
The switch is not the 3DS. 3DS lowers development costs and allows them to stay below a certain 'range' because of its limited specs as a non HD platform as well as inherent built in base after 6 years. Switch does not, as due to its architecture, Capcom will be pressured to invest in more HD develpent for the console than they have been, thus driving up dev costs, something they have been actively avoiding.

They are basically having to go to console level development without a base. Moreover, its unproven.

The games will come, but i would expect to see some of them go multiplatform as a consequence of having to spread out the investment dollars.
Eh I don't think the MH Team is actively avoiding HD development except during MH Tri development where they make significant overhaul across the board. Combined with expensive price HD development because it was new at the time, making HD MH Tri was too prohibitively expensive.

The myth that MH Team is ignoring graphics to save development cost is bullshit. It's true of course that the game being on handheld allows to reuse many assets and to that effect, they saved many money. But that's a benefit they received rather than a goal to achieve. The MH Team clearly aware that they can't reuse the exact same assets over and over again. MHP3rd main marketing pitch was "graphical improvement" show by its very flagship monster, Zinogre, whom has overtly detail into its design. MH4U was released alongside N3DS and promised to have better visual and performance on the revised hardware. MHX had pretty much almost all of its special effects replaced with a better looking than before. I haven't even mentioned on their incremental improvement on the animation quality and variation.

Graphics sell, and game with already solid gameplay like MH where the monsters and armors already detailed will benefitted more from improved graphics rather than keeping as it is. With the series rise on the west it just become more incentive for Capcom to pursue HD MH when the time comes.
 

Sandfox

Member
the panic is justified by the hybrid concept (that brought compromises to the new "home console") being scrapped by the "home only" approach they choose
I understand that on paper, next year without the 3DS and maybe with a possible price cut and the move of Nintendo's IPs to the Switch to the 3DS, it could still be possible for them to position it also as a portable, but if the response of the market will be disappointing to the Home console Switch as it has been to the Wii U, I struggle to see Nintendo to successfully rebrand the console, especially among third parties (that are always ready to abandon the Nintendo ship)

What?
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
This is all anxiety nonsense though. If the Switch ultimately fails, it will not be because of anything other than it being a product no one wants. If people want it, it will succeed. All the talk about "branding" being damaged or the early launch "souring" people is just silly stuff fanboys get worked up about. The reality is that we have never seen a single hardware launch where the long term prospects of the device is determined by the first year. The perception a system has 1.5 to 2 years from launch is usually what determines the fate of the system. The first year is just for enthusiasts and early adopters. Good word of mouth can help, bad word of mouth might make fans feel more anxious, but in the end we've seen companies turn it around over and over again. We have also seen systems with really good early word of mouth completely flatline because they couldn't compete when it counted later in the lifespan.

So take a chill pill and relax. The fact that you use "panic" says a lot. No one is panicking. Not Nintendo. Not third parties. Not the people who pre-ordered the Switch. Just you.



uuuuuh...wasn't me that used PANIC, but you :\
I firmly believe that the mid-term perception of a console determines its fates and that re-launch an hw perceived as "uninteresting" is pretty hard.
saying that the console is or isn't interesting not based on its actual chance of getting interesting software and providing advantages to the consumers is also...strange.
A hybrid console "presented" as hybrid from the beginning would both clear consumers mind about actual interesting software and actual advantages of purchasing one unique hw instead of two


I missed a couple of words :D
 

duckroll

Member
I don't really agree that it will automatically end up costing much more to develop on the Switch. I think this might be true of key franchises because of expectations, but that cost creep already started with DS -> 3DS and PSP -> Vita for Japanese developers. For developers who actually scrape the bottom of the barrel though, why would it really cost more? They'll make the same basic looking games, render it at a higher resolution, and throw AA on it. I think titles which consumers feel justify higher production values will be hit the hardest by expectations - Fire Emblem and Pokemon. Those are two successful franchises which have used the excuse of weaker hardware for the longest time to look as low-spec as possible. Now that excuse is gone. But you know what? When something can sell millions and they still want to look as cheap as possible, I don't really have much sympathy for them being forced to up their game by market forces. :p

uuuuuh...wasn't me that used PANIC, but you :\

I was making fun of it, you seem to actually believe it is there. Trust me, it's just nothing anxiety.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
I don't really agree that it will automatically end up costing much more to develop on the Switch. I think this might be true of key franchises because of expectations, but that cost creep already started with DS -> 3DS and PSP -> Vita for Japanese developers. For developers who actually scrape the bottom of the barrel though, why would it really cost more? They'll make the same basic looking games, render it at a higher resolution, and throw AA on it. I think titles which consumers feel justify higher production values will be hit the hardest by expectations - Fire Emblem and Pokemon. Those are two successful franchises which have used the excuse of weaker hardware for the longest time to look as low-spec as possible. Now that excuse is gone. But you know what? When something can sell millions and they still want to look as cheap as possible, I don't really have much sympathy for them being forced to up their game by market forces. :p



I was making fun of it, you seem to actually believe it is there. Trust me, it's just nothing anxiety.

I just quoted you about that word, nothing more.
About the costs, I more or less agree.
 

noshten

Member
Nintendo 3DS

03. / 00. [3DS] Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle (Level 5) {2011.02.26} - 119.591 / NEW
05. / 00. [3DS] Nintendogs + Cats (French Bulldog, Shiba, Toy Poodle & New Friends) (Nintendo) {2011.02.26} - 64.213 / NEW
06. / 00. [3DS] Samurai Warriors: Chronicles (Koei Tecmo) {2011.02.26} - 49.327 / NEW


PlayStation Vita

07./00. [PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational <SPT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥4.980) - 61.412 / NEW
08./00. [PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2011.12.17} (¥5.980) - 48.224 / NEW
18./00. [PSV] Dynasty Warriors Next <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2011.12.17} (¥6.090) - 29.181 / NEW


Wii U

02./00. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥5.985) - 163.528 / NEW
04./00. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2012.12.08} (¥4.800) - 106.388 / NEW *
06./00. [WIU] Nintendo Land <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥4.935) - 72.121 / NEW


PlayStation 4

03./00. [PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) {2014.02.22} (¥8.600) - 82.540 / NEW
07./00. [PS4] Killzone: Shadow Fall <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.02.22} (¥7.245) - 32.336 / NEW
08./00. [PS4] Battlefield 4 <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} (¥7.665) - 24.799 / NEW


Anything below 300k for Zelda launch week will be disappointing.
The game to me seems like larger than any game we've seen recently at launch. There is considerably more hype surrounding it in Japan.
It's just a matter of whether it will be a leggy title, since it's going to have a month/month and half before MK8 Deluxe drops.
I'm thinking around 550-600k first month depending on how the Switch does.

In terms of hardware, something similar to the 3DS/Wii launch is what Nintendo has to be hoping for at minimum.
So 350-400k launch and 150-200k second week 100k third week. Switch should be past a million in Japan with the MK8 Deluxe launch.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Anything below 300k for Zelda launch week will be disappointing.
The game to me seems like larger than any game we've seen recently at launch. There is considerably more hype surrounding it in Japan.
It's just a matter of whether it will be a leggy title, since it's going to have a month/month and half before MK8 Deluxe drops.
I'm thinking around 550-600k first month depending on how the Switch does.

In terms of hardware, something similar to the 3DS/Wii launch is what Nintendo has to be hoping for at minimum.
So 350-400k launch and 150-200k second week 100k third week. Switch should be past a million in Japan with the MK8 Deluxe launch.

I respect your opinion.
I gathered the exact opposite idea from that list.
Especially since Zelda (3D/home) isn't in Japan as popular as 2D Mario or MH, especially since the horrid TPHD and WWHD results on Wii U, especially because Switch is price-positioned as a pricey device and promoted as a home console, in nowadays Japanese market.
 
I respect your opinion.
I gathered the exact opposite idea from that list.
Especially since Zelda (3D/home) isn't in Japan as popular as 2D Mario or MH, especially since the horrid TPHD and WWHD results on Wii U, especially because Switch is price-positioned as a pricey device and promoted as a home console, in nowadays Japanese market.

I would say the art direction of Breath of the Wild would do it favors in Japan on visual appeal alone. And also it's not a remaster of a GameCube game.
 

Durante

Member
I don't really agree that it will automatically end up costing much more to develop on the Switch. I think this might be true of key franchises because of expectations, but that cost creep already started with DS -> 3DS and PSP -> Vita for Japanese developers. For developers who actually scrape the bottom of the barrel though, why would it really cost more? They'll make the same basic looking games, render it at a higher resolution, and throw AA on it. I think titles which consumers feel justify higher production values will be hit the hardest by expectations - Fire Emblem and Pokemon. Those are two successful franchises which have used the excuse of weaker hardware for the longest time to look as low-spec as possible. Now that excuse is gone. But you know what? When something can sell millions and they still want to look as cheap as possible, I don't really have much sympathy for them being forced to up their game by market forces. :p
Exactly.
 

zeromcd73

Member
Lady Layton will never be on the Switch in 2017, Nintendo screwed the pooch on this one!
Monster Hunter XX reuses the same engine and assets as X and is a well established franchised, and Dai Gyakuten Saiban 2 and is second game in the franchise which would also use the same engine and probably a fair amount of assets too which then makes since why they would not transition yet.

But in regards to Lady Layton and also say Snack World and even Inazuma Eleven. What point would there be hoping to build a successful brand new franchise and rebooting two old ones in to brand new franchises by releasing them this year on 3DS (and also iOS/Android) when they would then need to successfully transition to Switch from 2018 onward.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
I would say the art direction of Breath of the Wild would do it favors in Japan on visual appeal alone. And also it's not a remaster of a GameCube game.

Zelda SS artstyle too was targeted at Japanese market (on paper), and it sold 350 LTD (I think?), on a Wii install base
After that, the home console episodes were just GC ports, but they still sold HORRIBLY in Japan
And TP at launch on Wii sold 175K: 300K at launch for BotW is simply out of this market.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
As a reminder Twilight Princess FW on Wii was 145k.

The difference is Twilight Princess had strong competition. You won't find many buying Switch without Zelda at launch this time. Its sales depend directly on how many consoles will be sold at first week. If Switch goes for 350k opening, 250k is the minimum for Switch Zelda.

Either way with Wii U we should see a >250k opening.
 

Branduil

Member
I don't think there will be that many people buying a Switch to play 1,2 Switch. Zelda will probably have a 90% attach rate for the first few weeks.
 

noshten

Member
I don't think there will be that many people buying a Switch to play 1,2 Switch. Zelda will probably have a 90% attach rate for the first few weeks.

I'm guessing the general surprise/shock on the forum if 1,2 Switch has an opening above 100k, yet pre-orders seem to be signaling that it's a lot more attractive as a launch title than what was perceived around neogaf.
In anycase I'm still waiting for digital pricing to be announced on the Switch. I'm speculating that this time digital on the eShop will be priced accordingly with discounts for paid subs starting the fall. This could make it a bit more attractive for potential customers who are looking into purchasing smaller titles digitally rather than waiting for a physical release.
 

hiska-kun

Member
Zelda SS artstyle too was targeted at Japanese market (on paper), and it sold 350 LTD (I think?), on a Wii install base
After that, the home console episodes were just GC ports, but they still sold HORRIBLY in Japan
And TP at launch on Wii sold 175K: 300K at launch for BotW is simply out of this market.

So, people are going to buy Switch without games then?
 
Yes Switch is a "home console" and DS was once the "third pillar".

We all know that Switch is the successor to the 3DS&WiiU and that 2017 is 3DS last year.

I am glad that Nintendo supports 3DS this year with new software and this the right think to do, but don't be deceived by that last support effort. Nintendo left the traditional dying home console market.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I don't really agree that it will automatically end up costing much more to develop on the Switch. I think this might be true of key franchises because of expectations, but that cost creep already started with DS -> 3DS and PSP -> Vita for Japanese developers. For developers who actually scrape the bottom of the barrel though, why would it really cost more? They'll make the same basic looking games, render it at a higher resolution, and throw AA on it. I think titles which consumers feel justify higher production values will be hit the hardest by expectations - Fire Emblem and Pokemon. Those are two successful franchises which have used the excuse of weaker hardware for the longest time to look as low-spec as possible. Now that excuse is gone. But you know what? When something can sell millions and they still want to look as cheap as possible, I don't really have much sympathy for them being forced to up their game by market forces. :p



I was making fun of it, you seem to actually believe it is there. Trust me, it's just nothing anxiety.
With all due respect to Marvelous, this article detailing their cost increase for DS -> 3DS would represent my assumptions about 3DS -> Switch cost increases for bottom tier developers: http://m.ign.com/articles/2010/11/22/3ds-to-triple-ds-development-costs

I'm not expecting them to wheel out games that look like The Last of Us, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if their cost per game went from $1-$2 million to $2-$4 million to keep up with even the most minimal visual enhancements.

Are you actually expecting 100% 3DS quality art assets for Switch games outside of Pokémon and Fire Emblem?
 
All of Capcom's 3DS games (MH, AA, etc.) run on the mobile version of MT Framework, so bumping everything up to proper MT Framework for Switch wouldn't really be much of a hassle. Capcom could also be replacing everything with UE4 or RE Engine or whatever.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
How many Switch units do you think Nintendo will move at launch in Japan?

I've stated last week about 250k, if the cistumstances stay these ones (price, games, no megaton announcements unknow as for today, no bundle)
I actually see a decline from the previous Nintendo home console launch (that had 2D Mario, MH, Holiday boost and the Wii-push on the back)

If Zelda manages to have 90% attach ratio we'll talk for the biggest system seller since Knack.

Maybe we'll have to update this!!!! :eek:
maxresdefault.jpg

So, people are going to buy Switch without games then?

Uhm...no?
People ain't going to buy Switch at all! ;p
I think that Zelda will obviously be the most successfull game at launch, but I also think that Swithc won't be a Wii-launch in terms of general numbers (software-wise, the Wii sold a lot of titles at launch: this means that Zelda TP had competition, more than Botw, but at the same time the general numbers were very high, so I'm not so sure that TP could have sold A LOT more without Sports/Play around, because I'm pretty sure those games helped to sell the actual Wii too, enlaring the install base instantly)

With all due respect to Marvelous, this article detailing their cost increase for DS -> 3DS would represent my assumptions about 3DS -> Switch cost increases for bottom tier developers: http://m.ign.com/articles/2010/11/22/3ds-to-triple-ds-development-costs

I'm not expecting them to wheel out games that look like The Last of Us, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if their cost per game went from $1-$2 million to $2-$4 million to keep up with even the most minimal visual enhancements.

Are you actually expecting 100% 3DS quality art assets for Switch games outside of Pokémon and Fire Emblem?


I'm not expecting that the development costs/timings will not be affected at all, but the modern architecture, the middleware compatibility and the hybrid nature of the Switch could help in seeing the impact of the generational leap as smaller than expected.
Also because many devs already developed for PS4/Vita this gen, so just expect a 3DS to Switch leap isn't probably accurate. Basically...

All of Capcom's 3DS games (MH, AA, etc.) run on the mobile version of MT Framework, so bumping everything up to proper MT Framework for Switch wouldn't really be much of a hassle. Capcom could also be replacing everything with UE4 or RE Engine or whatever.

...also this
 
I don't really agree that it will automatically end up costing much more to develop on the Switch. I think this might be true of key franchises because of expectations, but that cost creep already started with DS -> 3DS and PSP -> Vita for Japanese developers. For developers who actually scrape the bottom of the barrel though, why would it really cost more? They'll make the same basic looking games, render it at a higher resolution, and throw AA on it. I think titles which consumers feel justify higher production values will be hit the hardest by expectations - Fire Emblem and Pokemon. Those are two successful franchises which have used the excuse of weaker hardware for the longest time to look as low-spec as possible. Now that excuse is gone. But you know what? When something can sell millions and they still want to look as cheap as possible, I don't really have much sympathy for them being forced to up their game by market forces. :p



I was making fun of it, you seem to actually believe it is there. Trust me, it's just nothing anxiety.

I wanted to say this marks the first time where there isn't a Japanese platform where developers can put out PS2 level visuals, but ...

Actually, this is where I should probably shut up because I don't actually know what I'm talking about. :x
 

Branduil

Member
I'd be perfectly fine with lower and mid-tier devs using PS2-level assets and blowing all the GPU power on image quality and framerate. Lighting too I guess since that's less dependent on asset creation.
 

Fisico

Member
The difference is Twilight Princess had strong competition. You won't find many buying Switch without Zelda at launch this time. Its sales depend directly on how many consoles will be sold at first week. If Switch goes for 350k opening, 250k is the minimum for Switch Zelda.

Either way with Wii U we should see a >250k opening.

Oh yes, I wasn't implying that BotW will have numbers close to TP, but 300k FW on Switch and 600k first month (which is higher than LTD number of TP on Wii) is more on the very high range than the bottom of predictions.

The only things we know for sure are the following ones
- Zelda BoTW will have the strongest attach ratio for a Switch title by far
- There will be 2M Switch shipped worldwide for March

I think with an upgraded first shipment (because 2M is god damn low no matter how you look at it) there could be around ~700k for Japan, assuming a >95% sellthrough that would leave around 650k Switch.
Even with a 90% attach ratio (which is crazy high) we're not reaching 600k sales first month for Zelda.

If I were to predict something that would be somewhere between 350-550k first month.
500-650k Switch in March, 70-85% attach rate for Zelda, and I already find these numbers optimistic myself.
 
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