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Media Create Sales: Week 38, 2013 (Sep 16 - Sep 22)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Glass Rebel
Member
I really want Wada back now 
It seems like SE is pushing Bravely Default as their handheld JRPG experience now. So we might get future developments for that in the coming years. But besides that, I don't have high hopes. And depending on how LR sells, SE can always fall back on a cheap XIII title for easy money.
I really want Wada back now
He is to an extent.
He now runs the emerging market division of Square Enix Japan, which is in charge of things like smartphones, tablets, and browsers.
The direction of steering almost everything into his department however comes from Matsuda.
And by doing this:
* They'd have to develop a new UI.
* A number of games would simply not work.
* It now has absolutely no selling point over the 360 and PS3.
* What would be the core controller that any developer could guarantee that a user owns?
* Why would this entice third parties at all?
That's not gonna happen.
frankie_baby
Member
because FF X/X-2 vita will sell so so much that SE will immediately greenlight and put all their resources into making a new FF X-3 vita exclusive?
am i right?
shinra-bansho
Member
Meh. UI's can change, those games can be labelled as needing the GamePad and frankly the implementation has been by and large redundant for the most part, it's not a selling point over the 360 and PS3 anyway, the Pro controller would be included instead presumably and third parties are long gone regardless.
I don't necessarily think it's the best possible option, but it's perfectly within the realm of feasible and could be beneficial.
Forgot to reply to this earlier.
Price isn't, or rather shouldn't be solely a function of the sum of the parts in a product. I always find it strange whenever people talk about system price points they think that it matters if the system is sold at a considerable loss or if it's more advanced than other competing products, when by and large it doesn't if the perceived value isn't enough to justify the price.
BishopLamont
Banned
Wii U is selling bad now, I'd love to see the sales if they ever dropped the Gamepad.
shinra-bansho
Member
It would depend entirely on what the price outcome was that resulted from removing that cost. If it allowed them to be much more price competitive with the 360/PS3 and/or undercut them then they would probably be selling better.
As a USP it essentially offers no value whatsoever; as much as some of the owners on here effuse about it, the general market doesn't care about it. If they did the system wouldn't be selling 5K a week in Japan, 7.5K a week in the US and like 2 units a week in Europe.
The mass market cares much more about price.
ShockingAlberto
Member
This is a good idea and a worrying sign for their future direction.
So in all that, what would Nintendo actually *gain* from it?
While price is a *huge* factor, it rather assumes approximate equivalence in libraries, and that simply isn't the case. Compare PS3 to Wii U, then remove all the games that are on both. How much more is a PS3, and how many more games does that enable you to access?
Wii U *does* have Mario, and that's an advantage - certainly, in terms of software powerhouses, it's one of the largest - but it's still only one.
BishopLamont
Banned
Price isn't the main problem, its the games. People were willing to buy the Wii for more than the cost of a PS3 or 360, Gamecube sold like shit despite being cheaper than its competition. The price means nothing when you don't have the right games for it. It'll be a bigger hassle than its worth and would be meaningless in helping sales.
I think price is an issue, but it's an issue that will decrease as more games come and the $250 price point is achieved (possibly to coincide with Mario Kart).
I agree that long term removing the game pad wouldn't really help.
BishopLamont
Banned
It makes sense a few years down the road when the Wii U is near the end of its life and a budget system makes sense, right now its pointless.
Except one of the earlier points were that third parties were - effectively - lost, so you're always going to have a rate of new content coming in far lower than on other systems. I don't see Nintendo redressing that balance without convincing third parties, and dropping the gamepad does nothing to aid that.
If Nintendo could fix the rate of content development and release, that'd be the start of getting the system on track. But I don't think they can do that without third parties.
BishopLamont
Banned
It doesn't need content parity with its competition to have a decent success of its own. Like the PSP or VIta, it needs its own content to justify a purchase, with those consoles its third parties that makes the big difference, with the Wii U it'll be first party, but yes I do agree its best if Nintendo gets more third party support, its just a very hard and unrealistic possibility looking at the situation.
shinra-bansho
Member
A lower price.
Price is one of many problems.
Some people were willing to buy a $350 Wii U.
Some people were willing to buy a $599 PS3 with its no games stigma.
I'm not saying it's the best option, again.
If they can lower the price without dropping the feature, then I'd advocate that. Even though I doubt anybody, as a generality, really cares about the feature.
But the $50 cut isn't going to do much of anything. If they want to try and salvage this product they're going to need to do more.
BishopLamont
Banned
I don't disagree with any of that, what I disagree with is that you said its feasible and beneficial, which is certainly not the case.
Someone who isn't willing to buy a Wii U @ $350 is certainly not gonna be interested in a Wii U @ $250 without the Gamepad, there's much better options out there. Wii U's main selling point is Nintendo's games that are out now and in the future, the price is much less a concern, it is what justifies the "premium" price of the console.
I think the price drop plus the rumored NSMB U bundle will be...ok for this holiday. I agree more is needed.
But I don't think they are that far away- $250 with Mario Kart next Spring I think would be close to where they need to be, and eliminating the Game Pad when you really aren't that far away from a nice price seems foolish to me.
shinra-bansho
Member
I said it was feasible, and it's entirely feasible from an implementation standpoint. I only said it could be beneficial, which it could be if it allowed them to achieve a mass market price point that they couldn't otherwise achieve and much more quickly.
A $199 Wii U with a regular controller would, imo, sell better than a $299 Wii U with a GamePad in the US market.
BishopLamont
Banned
Right now with its current library? yeah Some people might, but certainly not enough to make it feasible or beneficial.
PhantomOfTheKnight
Member
Alrighty, let's try this again:
So you're predicting that 90% of the Pokémon shipment will be stolen directly off the trucks and sold for 1000 yen on ebay
PhantomOfTheKnight
Member
I dunno, maybe. This is only the second time I've done this, and I don't follow Media Create that much.So you're predicting that 90% of the Pokémon shipment will be stolen directly off the trucks and sold for 1000 yen on ebay
1. They could do that in 5 minutes
2. Like 4 games that sold 30 copies total. Throw a sticker on the box. No one cares.
3. Nintendo First party games always was and always will be the selling point over the competition. Dropping the gamepad doesn't change that.
4. Gamepad and pro controller have the same number of buttons. It wouldn't be a problem.
5. Price goes down, install base goes up. It entices them more than Nintendos current strategy. Anything is more enticing than the current strategy.
strangedopamine
Member
My Predictions for next month:
Prediction League October, 2013
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):
[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2,649,151
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 278,000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 142,765
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 84,000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 77,777
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 649,151
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 104,000
Prediction League October, 2013
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):
[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2,649,151
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 278,000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 142,765
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 84,000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 77,777
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 649,151
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 104,000
Well, I'll give a try
Prediction League October, 2013
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):
[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2,965,000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 370,000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 163,000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 97,000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 75,200
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 698,900
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 72,000
Prediction League October, 2013
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):
[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2,965,000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 370,000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 163,000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 97,000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 75,200
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 698,900
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 72,000
theprodigy
Member
uh, I think you're missing a zero on Pokemon sales?
and how is the 3DS only going to triple the Vita sales with Pokemon
D
Deleted member 125677
Unconfirmed Member
I know I'm just repeating what other people have already said but...
Your pokemon prediction is 7 times too low for even a super conservative estimate.
Your 3DS prediction is probably a little low for even conservative estimates.
Your Vita prediction is a little high even for optimistic estimates.
It's your prediction but you'll get last place with these figures, guaranteed.
theprodigy
Member
Are you deliberately aiming for last place or something?
3DS-1
Vita-42659846710574298542
last place get
Prediction League October, 2013
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):
[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2,700,000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 280,000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 150,000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 74,000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 55,000
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 630,000
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 40,000
On an unrelated note, do we know for sure that Media Create and Famitsu will track the Vita TV when it comes out? It's like an Apple TV home-consolified that can play some handheld games. I expected them not to track it, but I see others think it's a given.
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Sep 30 to Oct 27):
[3DS] Pokémon X/Y (16 days) - 2,700,000
[PS3+360] Grand Theft Auto V (18 days) - 280,000
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles (18 days) - 150,000
[PSV] Danganronpa 1 & 2 Reload (18 days) - 74,000
[3DS] Battle for Money: Sentouchuu (11 days) - 55,000
[3DS] Hardware (28 days) - 630,000
[PSV] Hardware (28 days) - 40,000
On an unrelated note, do we know for sure that Media Create and Famitsu will track the Vita TV when it comes out? It's like an Apple TV home-consolified that can play some handheld games. I expected them not to track it, but I see others think it's a given.
michaelius
Banned
Considering they tracked PSP GO separately i don't see why Vita TV wouldn't be tracked.
It was still a handheld revision of a handheld, and the primary purpose on both was playing PSP games.
The Vita TV is a non-handheld "revision" of a handheld, that can only play a thin slice of the Vita's library, and is focused on much, much more than the Vita. It's also half the price, so it's clearly meant to be more of an Apple TV competitor than a Vita revision, I feel.
PhantomOfTheKnight
Member
Jesus Christ, I feel like I just got mobbed here. Ok, a revision:
Immaculate
Banned
You should've since preorders are confirmed to be over 1 million in Japan only in the first place xD
Well you gave a 350k predictions for Pokemon(unless that's a typo). It will be nice if you didn't change it and see yourself getting mob even worse after the results is out.
So, the Kadokawa group is having a special 50% off on everything on their ebook store Oct. 1st only (Japan time, so that's 14 hours left from now).
If anyone was waiting on an opportunity to buy the 2013 Famitsu White Paper for $150 instead of $300, now is your chance. =P
I think I'll just go with the top 1000.
If anyone was waiting on an opportunity to buy the 2013 Famitsu White Paper for $150 instead of $300, now is your chance. =P
I think I'll just go with the top 1000.
Bruno MB
Member
So we finally know the big Nintendo first-party holiday title for 3DS.
3DS Japanese lineup for the last quarter of the year looks overkill.
On the contrary, Wii U lineup is basically Super Mario World 3D + Taiko no Tatsujin for Wii U since Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze has been delayed until 2014, it's hard to be more incompetent than current Nintendo.
I think you also have to include the late October push with the new bundles, plus Wii Sports Club, Wii Party U, and Wii Fit U.
But I agree that the lineup is still light- one more game from Nintendo in December would have been ideal IMO.
frankie_baby
Member
Hey, I think you're forgetting Monster Hunter Frontier G. First it'll save the Wii U, then it'll save the Vita!
StreetsAhead
Member
DKC was always 2014 in Japan.
Glass Rebel
Member
Well, my Kirby 3DS prediction wasn't that far off.
It was never stated for 2013. In fact. their lineup got better just cause they finally gave a release date for Mario and Sonic. Before that it was really only Mario and Taiko.
And Streets, i actually think Rayman is not in a bad position. Lego showed that there is a place for western games published by Nintendo. I don't think the title will even cross 20k ltd, by i think at least Top 20 on it's release it's manageable.