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[MikeB]

People, feel free to share your counter perspectives. If you don't care I am not holding a gun to your face to read it (you can opt to ignore). Please stay polite and on topic in a non childish manner.

If there are inaccuracies please highlight them so they can be addressed. If the counter data appears to be of better use I will update the original posting.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I'm not going to fact check the numbers but if they are showing regional sales chart for the all the major systems whats so one sided about that? And if either competing console is on top, I say "To the spoils go the victor".

The market is worldwide. The attendant detail in data is not.

 

[[Nintex]]

These charts only count one or two weeks? You can't analyse with just one week of sales, you need more data.

 

[RoH]

Just a quick note:

Microsoft was not as heavily invested in the HD DVD format as you seem to think thatthey were.

They were using the drive as a tool to add value to their system, but the fact that format failed does not leave them anywhere other than where they were before they added the drive in the first place.

I agree with that statement... to a degree, But do you think the psychologically implications will have an affect on consumers?

Thanks BenjaminBirdie!

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I agree with that statement... to a degree, But do you think the physiological implications will have an affect on consumers?

Is that really the word you meant to use? The only impact in that regard I can think of is weight.

But if you meant psychologically, then no. The HD-DVD drive was barely advertised for the 360 in any mainstream way. At this point in the generation, adopters are now people who have not been interested in jumping into HD Gaming until recently. I doubt the mainstream has been patiently waiting en masse for two years, watching every single step of the game.

 

[RoH]

The market is worldwide. The attendant detail in data is not.

I don't think its striving to reflect the whole market, even though it does contain data on many of the major markets.

 

[Raistlin]

I appreciate the effort, but isn't trying to analyze the current market while ignoring the Wii a bit like discussing the presidential election while leaving out Obama?

In this case, no ... not really

 

[Falagard]

Plus, download times are usually too long (sometimes hours for a high-def movie) and the picture quality is sub-par to what you see on a Blu-ray or HD DVD disc.

What's this guy smoking?

It takes about 2 minutes after starting an HD movie download before you can start watching it on the 360, and the picture quality is as good as on my HD-DVD player, at least in my eyes. It's possible that it's worse, and I also only have an HDTV that supports 720p, so perhaps at 1080p Blu-ray looks better, but to me it looks fine.

I've rented 2 HD movies on the 360 (Brave One and Michael Clayton), and the only reason I don't watch more is because the price is ridiculously high for a digital download. I think it costs me about $9 CAD to watch an HD movie on the 360 and somewhere around $6 to $7 if I go rent one from a video rental place, and $7 if I rent one from my HD cable box.

The price is a problem. If it were $5 it'd be a no brainer.

 

[Raist]

So if you want some informative data on european software sales, you could always take a look on this.

For those who don't read PAL Charts threads, those weighted charts have been brought up by donny2112, just to show how sales look once you add in position in the charts, that is, a #1 title will give more points than a #2 etc. You get the idea. It is purely an extrapolation based on japanese software sales (I won't get into details, ask donny if you want more infos ), but since we don't have any numbers it's better than nothing.
I've never done such graphs outside of France. However you can see that the 360 is far behind the PS3, and France is certainly one of mainland europe's countries where the 360 performs the best.

 

[SRG01]

What's this guy smoking?

It takes about 2 minutes after starting an HD movie download before you can start watching it on the 360, and the picture quality is as good as on my HD-DVD player, at least in my eyes. It's possible that it's worse, and I also only have an HDTV that supports 720p, so perhaps at 1080p Blu-ray looks better, but to me it looks fine.

I've rented 2 HD movies on the 360 (Brave One and Michael Clayton), and the only reason I don't watch more is because the price is ridiculously high for a digital download. I think it costs me about $9 CAD to watch an HD movie on the 360 and somewhere around $6 to $7 if I go rent one from a video rental place, and $7 if I rent one from my HD cable box.

The price is a problem. If it were $5 it'd be a no brainer.

720p HD video... but at what bitrate? And sound?

It's nice to throw around these metrics, but not all HD video is created equal.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I don't think its striving to reflect the whole market, even though it does contain data on many of the major markets.

It sure sets out to. Why not contain the same amount of data for all three regions if your summation paragraph says that's what you're attempting? There's not one list of game sales data in the NA section, while the EU section has like seven.

 

[Raistlin]

Anyways ... good read. Contains a nice summary of current sales info for the two consoles.



For the most part, I agree with the implications made as well. For example, the likelihood that one or both will gain significant traction as HDTV penetration expands (as well as prices going down for the consoles and TV’s). Similarly, I also agree that many Wii owners will move to a Wii60 or WiiS3 situation as the HD market expands.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

720p HD video... but at what bitrate? And sound?

It's nice to throw around these metrics, but not all HD video is created equal.

Which is why the only metric that really matters is hard sales/audience numbers, which are not easy to come by. If you really wanted to parse out the difference is between disc-based HD content, Cable HD-content and Downloaded HD-content, we could be here for days.

 

[stotch]

In this case, no ... not really

If you're making the case that Blu Ray will start to become mainstream then yes the other cheaper and currently more mainstream console (wii) does matter.

 

[Evander]

I agree with that statement... to a degree, But do you think the physiological implications will have an affect on consumers?

Assuming you mean psychological, the only affect it will have is on consumers who specifically want HD movies, and it will be no different from when there was no drive at all.

The drive was just an optional accessory, and one that had no interaction with any other features. I don't remember the PS2 having a negative backlash from the fact that the HDD add-on was never really put to use, aside from two games. This was even AFTER everyone had speculated that they would be able to replace their memory cards with the drive. When the redesigned system was released, without a drive bay, consumers had no psychological reaction.

 

[RoH]

Is that really the word you meant to use? The only impact in that regard I can think of is weight.

But if you meant psychologically, then no. The HD-DVD drive was barely advertised for the 360 in any mainstream way. At this point in the generation, adopters are now people who have not been interested in jumping into HD Gaming until recently. I doubt the mainstream has been patiently waiting en masse for two years, watching every single step of the game.

I guess your right, I just thought loosing a HD feature that people may have invested in or thought about investing in mayhave impacted the parent system.

 

[Evander]

If you're making the case that Blu Ray will start to become mainstream then yes the other cheaper and currently more mainstream console does matter.

bluray being a mainstream movie format won;t have any significant bearing on the 360.

It might propel the PS3 upwards, as the best value for a bluray player, but that does not come from any reaction to the 360 itself

 

[FFChris]

Could you possibly be any more biased?

 

[Evander]

I guess your right, I just thought loosing a HD feature that people may have invested in or thought about investing in mayhave impacted the parent system.

Is there any evidence of people basing the majority of their purchase decision on HD media format? It sounds extremely counter-intuitive.

 

[soul creator]

Is there any evidence of people basing the majority of their purchase decision on HD media format? It sounds extremely counter-intuitive.

strong sales of PS2/Wii/DS clearly show that HD Media is the biggest factor in the console war, and the fall of HD-DVD is a huge blow to the 360

lolz

 

[watership]

720p HD video... but at what bitrate? And sound?

It's nice to throw around these metrics, but not all HD video is created equal.

The Bitrate differs from movie to movie. Just like Blu-ray and HD-DVD did. If it's encoded well, it's amazing. However, of all the downloadable HD services, The Xbox Video Marketplace has the best movie quality and value.

Vudu vs Xbox 360 vs Apple TV
http://gizmodo.com/363600/apple-tv-vs-vudu-vs-xbox-360-video-download-battlemodo

 

[Xisiqomelir]

OP makes me avoid this thread like the plague... sorry.

Does not compute, DUCY?

 

[Falagard]

720p HD video... but at what bitrate? And sound?

It's nice to throw around these metrics, but not all HD video is created equal.

Listen, there's a lot of people out there that can barely tell the difference between DVD quality video and HD content in the first place. I'm not one of those - I can definitely appreciate the quality of an HD movie over standard def or upscaled DVD movie. And I'm saying that I can't tell the difference between a downloaded HD movie on my Xbox 360 and an HD-DVD. I have a 5.1 surround sound system and a 50" HDTV and it looked and sounded great.

 

[RoH]

Assuming you mean psychological, the only affect it will have is on consumers who specifically want HD movies, and it will be no different from when there was no drive at all.

The drive was just an optional accessory, and one that had no interaction with any other features. I don't remember the PS2 having a negative backlash from the fact that the HDD add-on was never really put to use, aside from two games. This was even AFTER everyone had speculated that they would be able to replace their memory cards with the drive. When the redesigned system was released, without a drive bay, consumers had no psychological reaction.

HDD to Disk media is kind of far reaching but I think it get your point. The only down side to this "..the HDD add-on was never really put to use, aside from two games" is that the HDDVD add-on sold well.

 

[Hammer24]

Before page 3, MikeB will start with personal insults.

Just wait.

this thread is going to be grand.

I just hope that this time he´ll be faster with the pics of his female relatives to prove his point.

 

[Raistlin]

If you're making the case that Blu Ray will start to become mainstream then yes the other cheaper and currently more mainstream console (wii) does matter.

When I say doesn't matter, I simply mean that it isn't an all-or-nothing game. I believe the gaming market is strong enough that it can support two consoles well enough, that the 'second place' console could still be considered successful (from a business sense, and a gaming sense).

Also, and potentially more important, I believe this console generation has two variables that makes it a bit different than prior ones. First is HD (and the lack thereof of the #1 console at this point). Second is the dramatic difference in gameplay and general game genres/styles that we see between Wii and PS3/360. To get a taste for both, people will need two consoles. The way I see it, when you couple those two variables, I find it very likely that this generation will yield more multi-console owners than any has in the past.

 

[luiggi_oasis]

Japan : "Micorosoftu ? The hell is this ? Is it food ?"
Europe : "We dun care 'bout teh 360 lulz" UK : "No wait, we do" Europe : "Fine but you eat shitty food and don't even use euro as currency" UK : "stfu"
USA : "we mus protek national products"

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol you got an A+++++:lol :lol

 

[BLaZiN PRopHeT]

it was reported that the Video Market place for the 360 made i believe 90+ million dollars in one year. and just recently MS stated that since the 360 launched Downloads havent made over 250 million dollars

 

[Evander]

strong sales of PS2/Wii/DS clearly show that HD Media is the biggest factor in the console war, and the fall of HD-DVD is a huge blow to the 360

lolz

Indeed.



I'm going to make my own prediction here:

The numbers (which I don't have on me, but shouldn't be hard for you to find) show that Itunes is currently the number two music seller out there, with only Walmart beating them.

Ibelieve that this shows a growing comfortability with the concept of digital distribution, as a whole, specifically among the demographics that shop at stores other than walmart.

Now, if you look at the demography, those more likely to buy High Definition home entertainment systems are also more likely to shop somewhere other than Walmart for their media.

Digital Distribution is also MUCH cheaper to produce, and has much higher profit margins, which grow exceptionally fast at additional quantities sold, due to negligable variable costs.



So I believe that Digitally Distributed movies will win out in the battle for HD media, with DVDs prevailing on the level of Standard definition, being sold mainly at Walmart, and other similar stores, as well as online. Blurays will continue to exist in extremely limited quantities.

 

[RoH]

Is there any evidence of people basing the majority of their purchase decision on HD media format? It sounds extremely counter-intuitive.

I think it may be to early to get any hard evidence, but I personally think a portion of both the systems sales have been attributable to the inclusion of the new HD media. That said the loss/perceived loss of this function would impact a console.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

Oh hey it's a MikeB thread.
Yeah I'm out of here.

 

[Evander]

I think it may be to early to get any hard evidence, but I personally think a portion of both the systems sales have been attributable to the inclusion of the new HD media. That said the loss/perceived loss of this function would impact a console.

There is no question that many PS3s have been bought specifically for the Bluray functionality (it is often reviewed, in the mainstream, as being the best value, and most future proof bluray player on the market) but I have seen absolutely zero evidence to suggest that anyone has purchased a 360 with only HD DVD in mind.

 

[Falagard]

There is no question that many PS3s have been bought specifically for the Bluray functionality (it is often reviewed, in the mainstream, as being the best value, and most future proof bluray player on the market) but I have seen absolutely zero evidence to suggest that anyone has purchased a 360 with only HD DVD in mind.

True. I am certainly looking at buying a PS3 when the price drops a bit further just for the BluRay functionality, unless I can find a standalone BluRay player at a significantly cheaper price, which most assuredly isn't going to happen any time soon.

 

[Crayon]

This guy is technically out of control.

 

[RoH]

Indeed.



I'm going to make my own prediction here:

The numbers (which I don't have on me, but shouldn't be hard for you to find) show that Itunes is currently the number two music seller out there, with only Walmart beating them.

Ibelieve that this shows a growing comfortability with the concept of digital distribution, as a whole, specifically among the demographics that shop at stores other than walmart.

Now, if you look at the demography, those more likely to buy High Definition home entertainment systems are also more likely to shop somewhere other than Walmart for their media.

Digital Distribution is also MUCH cheaper to produce, and has much higher profit margins, which grow exceptionally fast at additional quantities sold, due to negligable variable costs.



So I believe that Digitally Distributed movies will win out in the battle for HD media, with DVDs prevailing on the level of Standard definition, being sold mainly at Walmart, and other similar stores, as well as online. Blurays will continue to exist in extremely limited quantities.

I'm surprised you think Digitally distributed HD content will win out, unless you mean at least one generation ahead. I just don't see the physical infrastructure being able to handle it. For example, look what happened to XBL a few months ago? the system failed to predict usage and slowed almost to a halt. Unless the infrastructures for the distribution of the media is improved I don't think it will become the primary means for HD media.

 

[donny2112]

MySQL%: delete from neogaf_threads where thread_title like 'sales' or like 'analysis';

:lol

I take you don't write SQL much?


I didn't really know anything about MikeB before reading this thread. Now, I do. BenjaminBirdie had an excellent summary. Good work, BenjaminBirdie.

The only down side to this ... is that the HDDVD add-on sold well.

It sold to ~5% of the U.S. 360 owners. I personally wouldn't call that selling "well."

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I didn't really know anything about MikeB before reading this thread. Now, I do. BenjaminBirdie had an excellent summary. Good work, BenjaminBirdie.

When it comes to Sales-Age, I am but the amateurest of enthusiasts in the mesmerizing light of your statistical expertise.

 

[RoH]

:lol

I take you don't write SQL much?


I didn't really know anything about MikeB before reading this thread. Now, I do. BenjaminBirdie had an excellent summary. Good work, BenjaminBirdie.



It sold to ~5% of the U.S. 360 owners. I personally wouldn't call that selling "well."

If thats the case, I can see why it would have very little impact on anyone.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I'm surprised you think Digitally distributed HD content will win out, unless you mean at least one generation ahead. I just don't see the physical infrastructure being able to handle it. For example, look what happened to XBL a few months ago? the system failed to predict usage and slowed almost to a halt. Unless the infrastructures for the distribution of the media is improved I don't think it will become the primary means for HD media.

Right now MS is running a very narrow pipe for a very, let's be honest, narrow userbase. I'd be curious to hear if Apple's servers for iTMS took any kind of hit when they started offering Video and then again, when they started offering HD Video.

XBLVM might not be the future of HD-Movies, but dedicated Digital Distribution certainly has a shot to be.

 

[SRG01]

I'm surprised you think Digitally distributed HD content will win out, unless you mean at least one generation ahead. I just don't see the physical infrastructure being able to handle it. For example, look what happened to XBL a few months ago? the system failed to predict usage and slowed almost to a halt. Unless the infrastructures for the distribution of the media is improved I don't think it will become the primary means for HD media.

You are right on the dot. The US does not have enough physical infrastructure on the continent to provide acceptable performance to the majority of its citizens. As long as that is the limiting case, the digital distribution of HD content -- or even video content -- will be limited.

I could, once again, go into the US's telecom history, but I'm tired of repeating the same story over and over again.

 

[Evander]

I'm surprised you think Digitally distributed HD content will win out, unless you mean at least one generation ahead. I just don't see the physical infrastructure being able to handle it. For example, look what happened to XBL a few months ago? the system failed to predict usage and slowed almost to a halt. Unless the infrastructures for the distribution of the media is improved I don't think it will become the primary means for HD media.

I think you are under estimating the staying-power of DVDs.

The only reason that DVDs beat out VHS as quick asthey did was because of the inclusion of an onslaught of new and convenient features all at once. No need to rewind, being able to select a chapter, standardization of extra content, alternate audio tracks and camera angles, etc. It was a clear step forward, and even then, it didn't happen overnight.

Bluray's only offerings (currently) above DVD are higher storage space, HD picture, and scratch resistant coating. Storage space may matter to some people, who hate having to switch between ten different discs in one box set, but those same people would also prefer never having to change a disc ever with DigiDistro. HD picture is available either way, and, technically speaking, DigiDistro has the capability to have an even higher resolution in the future through software/firmware updates (Bluray does not, since it is not mandatory for all Bluray players to be updateable; one of the features that HD DVD DID have, but that is a seperate topic.) As much as I personally love the scratch proof coating on all of my Bluray discs (I believe I am up to 7 movies, two of them being two discs, and five PS3 games, so 14 discs total) DigiDistro removes any chance of discs getting scratched at all, of course it comes with the risk of corrupted data, etc, but implimented correctly, you would just be able to download the file again.



The point that I am gettingat is that by the time that the market is ready to accept the new features that Bluray offers, DigiDistro already offers all of that and more. Think about DVD-Audio, and how it never caught on, despite being absolutely superior. My father bought a car with a DVD audio sound system, and on the occassions I've borrowed it from him it's been an absolute delight to listen to my music in 5.1, but it just isn't different ENOUGH from a CD for the mainstream to care about it like they did the switch from tapes to CDs, or from CDs to mp3s.

 

[RoH]

You are right on the dot. The US does not have enough physical infrastructure on the continent to provide acceptable performance to the majority of its citizens. As long as that is the limiting case, the digital distribution of HD content -- or even video content -- will be limited.

I could, once again, go into the US's telecom history, but I'm tired of repeating the same story over and over again.

Lucky for me I'm familiar with it

Maybe some the the new proposed protocol implementations like P4P or network operators finding a way to commercially use other P2P protocols will help in the short term, but some thing drastic will have to change DD whats to become mas market.

 

[Pureauthor]

This is pretty crappy market analysis. Too much attention placed in a single area, several assumptions based on shaky or nonexistent data, etc.

 

[RoH]

I think you are under estimating the staying-power of DVDs.

The only reason that DVDs beat out VHS as quick asthey did was because of the inclusion of an onslaught of new and convenient features all at once. No need to rewind, being able to select a chapter, standardization of extra content, alternate audio tracks and camera angles, etc. It was a clear step forward, and even then, it didn't happen overnight.

Bluray's only offerings (currently) above DVD are higher storage space, HD picture, and scratch resistant coating. Storage space may matter to some people, who hate having to switch between ten different discs in one box set, but those same people would also prefer never having to change a disc ever with DigiDistro. HD picture is available either way, and, technically speaking, DigiDistro has the capability to have an even higher resolution in the future through software/firmware updates (Bluray does not, since it is not mandatory for all Bluray players to be updateable; one of the features that HD DVD DID have, but that is a seperate topic.) As much as I personally love the scratch proof coating on all of my Bluray discs (I believe I am up to 7 movies, two of them being two discs, and five PS3 games, so 14 discs total) DigiDistro removes any chance of discs getting scratched at all, of course it comes with the risk of corrupted data, etc, but implimented correctly, you would just be able to download the file again.



The point that I am gettingat is that by the time that the market is ready to accept the new features that Bluray offers, DigiDistro already offers all of that and more. Think about DVD-Audio, and how it never caught on, despite being absolutely superior. My father bought a car with a DVD audio sound system, and on the occassions I've borrowed it from him it's been an absolute delight to listen to my music in 5.1, but it just isn't different ENOUGH from a CD for the mainstream to care about it like they did the switch from tapes to CDs, or from CDs to mp3s.

Thats a wonderfully digital Utopian future you have just described and I would love to live it it, but... It is not going to happen any time soon, I just do not see it for a very long time.

 

[Evander]

Thats a wonderfully digital Utopian future you have just described and I would love to live it it, but... It is not going to happen any time soon, I just do not see it for a very long time.

What is at all utopian about anything I said? It had a completely neutral value on any sort of utopian/dystopian scale.

 

[BLaZiN PRopHeT]

You are right on the dot. The US does not have enough physical infrastructure on the continent to provide acceptable performance to the majority of its citizens. As long as that is the limiting case, the digital distribution of HD content -- or even video content -- will be limited.

I could, once again, go into the US's telecom history, but I'm tired of repeating the same story over and over again.

MS has been football field size server farms around the world. they never said what they are for but my friend works for MS and he told me the company is changing and they have big plans.



also for the person who said XBL slowed down over the holiday season this is true. but the entire time the Video Market place was up and running.

 

[MikeB]

I think you are under estimating the staying-power of DVDs.

The only reason that DVDs beat out VHS as quick asthey did was because of the inclusion of an onslaught of new and convenient features all at once. No need to rewind, being able to select a chapter, standardization of extra content, alternate audio tracks and camera angles, etc. It was a clear step forward, and even then, it didn't happen overnight.

I find the transition to Blu-Ray far less cumbersome than moving from VHS to DVD, I kept my VHS recorder for all these years because my DVD player isn't backwards compatible with VHS tapes and does not enable me to record TV programmes.

Hopefully the PS3 turns into a good DVR. IMO at least the PS3 does everything a good upscaling DVD player would do. I have read reports that Blu-Ray movie sales and penetration is happening at a faster pace than was the case for people buying into DVD in the past.

I like the fact that Blu-Ray discs don't scratch, but I would have waited longer with watching Blu-Ray movies if the PS3 didn't include this functionality by default (and I am very happy with the quality!). On the PS3 adding a Blu-Ray player IMO made absolute sense for the long run, if God of War 2 already eats up a dual layer DVD surely God of War 3 in 1080p and 7.1 audio is certainly going to need more storage. Less reason for developers to make storage related sacrifices.

 

[Raist]

720p HD video... but at what bitrate? And sound?

It's nice to throw around these metrics, but not all HD video is created equal.

AppleTV is 4mbps ans 360's is roughly 7mbps.

For reference, a 480i DVD is 8mbps (ok, mpeg2 is far worse at hiding artifacts than H264, but still...) and a BRD is 40mbps...

People who think that digital distribution movies look as good as BRD/HD-DVD ones are clearly insane and/or blind. And let's not even talk about sound.

 

[Evander]

I find the transition to Blu-Ray far less cumbersome than moving from VHS to DVD, I kept my VHS recorder for all these years because my DVD player isn't backwards compatible with VHS tapes and does not enable me to record TV programmes.

It might be easier in that sense, but you still need a reason TO move to Bluray, and THAT is what will hold the transition back.

 

[Pureauthor]

The point that I am gettingat is that by the time that the market is ready to accept the new features that Bluray offers, DigiDistro already offers all of that and more. Think about DVD-Audio, and how it never caught on, despite being absolutely superior. My father bought a car with a DVD audio sound system, and on the occassions I've borrowed it from him it's been an absolute delight to listen to my music in 5.1, but it just isn't different ENOUGH from a CD for the mainstream to care about it like they did the switch from tapes to CDs, or from CDs to mp3s.

The market hasn't even fully moved to digital distribution for music yet. Movies (HD movies, no less) are exponentially larger and more complicated. Digidistro isn't going to happen for a while.