WULFER said:
I give Sony and MS about a 50/50 shot right now (as much as we know)
Sony has the Playstation and the POWERFUL force that it is.
Probably more powerful hardware.
Sony inhouse (GT4 etc.)
market know how.
Blu-ray in the box.
MS has a postive base with Xbox. (could be better)
XBOX LIVE and the #1 online service.
MS inhouse holds it's own against Sony's.
Blockbuster Movie/game in Halo.
gained more 3rd party support than Xbox this time (success there)
Each company has something better or holds it's own atleast right now.
Objectively, based on only what we know, I wouldn't call it 50/50. I'd call it like 60/40. Of course this is entering subjective territory, so I hate to participate in this excersize... but what the hell.
I don't know why you mean by "MS has a positive base with Xbox. (could be better)" If it means what I think it means, this is one area where I'm really going to have to strongly disagree. The one area that Sony indisputably has a victory is in base. Nothing compares, it's not even in the same arena, league, sport. We're talkin' a 70 million console difference. Sony has mindshare, marketshare, pretty much
everyshare. So in this lies Sony's biggest advantange, and the primary reason I think it's 60/40.
So let's break it down based on your criteria
PlayStation brand/base vs. Xbox brand/base - Winner Sony (1)
PlayStation 3 Power vs. Xbox 360 Power - Winner Sony (but will it be a big enough gap, will consumers be able to tell? I think not until the VERY end of next gen, which will be too late to make a difference). (1)
PlayStation 3 Online vs. Xbox 360 online - Winner Microsoft (no doubt. There's cavernous distances between Microsoft's plan and Sony's.) (1)
Sony First Party vs. Microsoft First Party - Winner Sony (this was a difficult one. For big franchises, it's Halo vs. Gran Turismo. I don't think I'd be wrong in saying that Halo edges out GT. I think where Sony wins is in its large array of other first/second party titles, which Microsoft really can't compete with yet.) (1)
Sony Marketing vs. Microsoft Marketing - Winner Tie (this was trouble for me. For one, Microsoft has more money. For another, Microsoft proved with Halo 2 they can turn something into a phenomenon with the right touch. Sony has had success, obviously, but I think often they rest on the power of their brand as opposed to the sort of in your face marketing that Microsoft has. Still, it worked so far...) (1-1)
Sony Launch vs. Microsoft Launch - Winner Microsoft (MS has first mover advantage. People seem to like to discredit this by saying it's a Dreamcast type event, but they ignore so many aspects of the reality of the situation. Launching first, I believe, will do wonders for the Xbox brand) (1)
Sony Price vs. Microsoft Price - Winner Undecided (We don't know the price of 360, we don't know the price of PS3. My GUT says PS3 is going to be way more expensive, though. Still, don't want to jump to conclusions) (0-0)
Sony Third Party vs. Microsoft Third Party - Winner Undecided (We simply don't know who has the edge until all the cards are on the table. Sony easily won this gen and last, but will the trend continue? Microsoft has money, will they spend even more to cement its position? Will Sony make sure it continues to forge critical partnerships to lead the brand into the future? Time will tell...)
Sony Territories vs. Microsoft Territories - Winner Sony (This is the big one, the hard one Microsoft has to overcome. Europe and Japan are overwhelmingly Sony territory with no indication that is changing. North America is the one Microsoft has to win. If they cannot win NA, it'll be impossible to even consider them winning Japan and Europe. And I think in NA, especially with first mover advantage, they have a great chance. Will it be enough to outsell Sony worldwide? I don't know, I doubt it. But does it REALLY matter who sells the most? Games, people!) (1)
I think what really gives Microsoft the 60/40 chance is the persistence. They are no mere SEGA, they have tons of money and they proved last gen they are willing to lose a fuckton just to stay competitive. This Thanksgiving will be an insane marketing rush, and it's important they maintain it into the PS3 hype rush. It's going to be an interesting race.