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[ponpo]

We live in an era where honestly letting Japan and Germany build complete militaries is the rational choice. Still Seoul

Japan and Germany are already top 10 militaries by spending.

 

[BolognaSoup]

Trying to make a show of force. I think they want to show that they can attack Japan if they go down. It's one case that they know they wouldn't last in a war but will want to make the most damage as possible.

Are they possibly delusional enough to think they could win all out war?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Are they possibly delusional enough to think they could win all out war?

they don't want war. this is deterrence to prevent, what they see as an inevitable US backed regime change invasion.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I have to imagine there are so many spies in NK they aren't even close to a threat.

I'd always assumed this as well. At least one person in the inner circle is probably feeding the US basically everything that's going to happen. If they ever decide to fire a real nuke at a real target, it won't leave the ground.

you're talking about the country where the leader kills his uncle with AA guns for potentially being to close to china is invested with US spies (who completely were dead on about the iraq weapons program and successful in preventing NK from getting nukes back in 2006)

 

[.Detective.]

NK Missile Launch |OT| There was supposed to be an earth shattering Kaboom

Real talk someone I know I going to South Korea over the summer and not gonna lie every time I hear about this shit I get worried for them.

NK Missile Launch |OT| This missile will self-destruct in...

 

[Earthbound64]

Are they possibly delusional enough to think they could win all out war?

No.

 

[Mammoth Jones]

Are they possibly delusional enough to think they could win all out war?

No. They could fuck up Seoul though. And will do enough chest-thumping to get concessions. And they shut up for a while until they need more and repeat.

 

[Sunster]

Well it's either that or end up as sushi. I'd hate to be a fish in Japanese waters.

I'd hate to be a whale in Japanese waters

 

[AlimNassor]

No. They could fuck up Seoul though. And will do enough chest-thumping to get concessions. And they shut up for a while until they need more and repeat.

They couldn't fuck up Seoul unless they spent weeks bombing it. I sincerely doubt North Korea has a functioning military. People seem to under the impression Seoul would be reduced to rubble in an instant and that's not the case in truth.

 

[Coriolanus]

They couldn't fuck up Seoul unless they spent weeks bombing it. I sincerely doubt North Korea has a functioning military. People seem to under the impression Seoul would be reduced to rubble in an instant and that's not the case in truth.

they dont need to raze it to fuck it up. Starting artillery strikes and hitting some buildings would be enough to cause more than ten million people in the city to panic. Thousands of deaths could be safely expected.

 

[SephLuis]

Are they possibly delusional enough to think they could win all out war?

They probably know they wouldn't win, but they might think they can cause some pretty bad damage while they fall.

 

[Sunster]

They probably know they wouldn't win, but they might think they can cause some pretty bad damage while they fall.

But then they will get 10x as fucked up, right? so why?

 

[Chaos2Frozen]

We live in an era where honestly letting Japan and Germany build complete militaries is the rational choice. Still Seoul

Getting the band back together.

 

[Mammoth Jones]

They couldn't fuck up Seoul unless they spent weeks bombing it. I sincerely doubt North Korea has a functioning military. People seem to under the impression Seoul would be reduced to rubble in an instant and that's not the case in truth.

They keep developing nuke tech unhindered they will. NK sneak attack the first time. They'll do it again.

 

[TAJ]

Seoul being hit by artillery is pretty bad but relatively recoverable.

Seoul being hit by millions of starving refugees flooding from a collapsed North is probably the long term crisis. That's probably the main reason why they haven't flatten them yet.

There won't be many refugees because there won't be many North Koreans.
This is assuming that NK uses nukes and/or launches an all-out attack on population centers. I very much doubt they'd take any other approach but I'd love to be wrong about that.

 

[Coriolanus]

But then they will get 10x as fucked up, right? so why?

there is no why, which is why they haven't really attacked. Nothing to gain from it. Absolutely everything to lose.

NK has been a rational actor for more than five decades. the regime has succesfully managed to transition power without crashing and burning twice. the current bastard in charge has been a rational actor for more than five years. At the moment there is no concrete cause for concern wrt NK itself.

the orange bastard, however, is a fresh unknown.

 

[antonz]

Hopefully some kind of sanity prevails because the cards are starting to be laid out in typical fashion for how the US begins military operations. 3rd Carrier Strike group has now been ordered to the region.

Going to have the Carl Vinson, Ronald Reagan and the Nimitz in the area now