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NPD Sales Results for January 2009

[Nintex]

Member
fernoca said:
NPD threads are always funny..
I still remember when "the PSP was owning the NDS in hardware sales"..and when "the PS3 was beating the Xbox 360 in the US and that it was all over for the 360"..

If one thing this threads (and sales) have shown is that there's no trend..one month your hardware/software may be failing, the other may be a hit...

Yet, so many people waste time arguing, creating theories, debates...essays..about possibilities and trends..that, yeah..it's funny.. :lol
It's set in stone and since I'm bored anyway let me explain:

Nintendo was building the Titanic and thought, fuck it we'll build a train instead. They made that train and it's still rolling better than the Titanic ever will.

Microsoft build the Titanic, the building quality was dodgy and the tickets were quite expensive it got quite far. Just when they were about to hit an iceberg they dropped the price of the tickets, set back for their port and set sail for another year.

Sony build a Titanic, made the tickets too expensive and sunk their lifeboats while they're heading full steam ahead towards a huge iceberg with blinders on.
 
lowlylowlycook said:
Oh, how have the mighty have fallen.

:lol Indeed! It is a weird feeling, isn't it, to be discussing whether Sony is just hurting, or keeling over? And this from a guy who's been through all the ups and downs. During the PS2 era, it really did seem like the industry had matured and cemented with Sony on top. Turns out it's just as volatile as ever.
 
Opiate said:
Dovetailing with Evlar's point, I think it's worth noting that empirical evidence suggests that the games we think of as "casual," with Wii Sports and Wii Fit being headliners, are apparently much more difficult to make than "hardcore" games, contrary to popular belief.

The evidence of this is in the sales figures. Virtually every major publisher is capable of producing multiple "hardcore" hits a year, from the recently venerated EA with Madden and Warhammer to the now loathed Activision with Call of Duty to smaller companies like Epic or Bethesda to Japanese companies like Konami and Capcom. The fact that so many companies of varying sizes, from different cultures and of different backgrounds can all produce games with high review scores and strong sales suggests that it isn't very difficult to make these types of games.

By contrast, virtually no one outside of Nintendo (Activision being the sole exception with Guitar Hero, I think) has been capable of capturing the "casual" demographic in a consist and exceptional manner. This suggests that it is difficult to do: if it were easy, everyone would be doing it. Even Ubisoft, the perpetuator of the Imagine and Petz lines on the DS, has never really seen an exceptional success with any individual game: to my knowledge, none of these games has individually sold more than 5 million, and I'd wager that only a handful have passed 3 million, if that. Their success on the platform comes from sheer volume of SKUs, not from a few SKUs selling enldessly a la Brain Age, Nintendogs, Brain Age 2, and Animal Crossing.

Now, please note that I'm not saying that this makes casual games "better" by some objective standard, I'm simply saying that empirical evidence suggests that it's actually more challenging to produce a big casual hit than it is a big hardcore hit. I'm pointing this out because Omar's argument earlier relies on Microsoft being capable of creating industry driving casual software, and I'd argue it's unlikely that they can, given that almost no one but Nintendo seems capable of doing so.

I think it's worth noting that few of those companies are having their best and most experienced development teams making casual games, Harmonix and Neversoft being the notable exceptions. It may be more of an issue of priority rather than difficulty.
 

pgtl_10

Member
Vinci said:
I think this has to do with how much testing Nintendo does of its games. It doesn't spend a TON of money on graphics and other such things; rather, it places that budgeting into going through a large series of tests on its software and then marketing said software appropriately.

The company's skillset is really very different from the others.


I take it Miyamoto heads the software? If so it explains why graphics take a back seat. He was one of the few developers that don't look at game development through how much power a console has. I appreciate his philosophy.
 

Opiate

Member
Basileus777 said:
I think it's worth noting that few of those companies are having their best and most experienced development teams making casual games, Harmonix and Neversoft being the notable exceptions. It may be more of an issue of priority rather than difficulty.

Absolutely, that is possible -- I'd say it's unlikely, however. We do have examples of well known developers trying their hand at more casual titles. For example, Gearbox with Samba de Amigo, which recieved poor reviews and did not sell well.

Thus, the counter argument to your point is this: the people who do try to make casual games do not succeed like Nintendo does. Therefore, we label them "bad developers" because they did not succeed in the casual space. Rather than "bad developers" causing bad "casual" titles, it is bad "casual" titles causing us to label them "bad developers." As soon as they do produce a good "casual" title, then voila, they're suddenly "good developers."

This explanation seems significantly more plausible. It seems unlikely that there is a vast, industry wide conspiracy to prevent anyone who might be considered a "good developer" from working on a casual title, particularly when so much money is being lost.

Again, your explanation is possible, but I would say it's very unlikely.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Hey, guys. I'm going to be writing starting tonight and haven't had time to check for random data points that slipped out today. Anyone keeping up and can help a guy out? :D

I've got a couple of additional data points, but as always we'll have to see how much I can do with them.

Thread seems short this month. Is it just me?
 

Jack B

Member
Luckyman said:
You know these companies don't care if a PS3 game is in the top 20 or 30 NPD like gaf does. They care about raw numbers.

When your competitors combined have 10M+ more machines it´s pretty hard to get multiple spots a month there. So saying PS3 software sales are horrible based on this chart is flawed.

Except you forgot about the PS3's lower attach rate. Less consoles and even fewer games purchased per console. All in all their software sales are just what people have been saying. Awful.
 
jvm said:
Hey, guys. I'm going to be writing starting tonight and haven't had time to check for random data points that slipped out today. Anyone keeping up and can help a guy out? :D

I've got a couple of additional data points, but as always we'll have to see how much I can do with them.

Thread seems short this month. Is it just me?
It's not just you. Thread is short. Groundhog Day Effect. Every month it's the same:

1) Wii
2) XBox 360
3) PS3

No PS3 game sold more than 113k, and there were either one or two of them in the top 30. Wired's blog has platform top 10s and all platform top 20 (no numbers), and we've got top 10 all platforms in the first post (with numbers). Nintendo has stated that 20 of the top 30 were on Nintendo platforms. Microsoft's press release all but completely ignored the NPD release, and Sony didn't even bother.

That, and I'm pretty sure the thread only garnered two bans.
 

Kolgar

Member
jvm said:
Thread seems short this month. Is it just me?

If you think this is bad, imagine the pain we felt last night when F5 F5 F5 got you a new post about every five minutes instead of five posts every half-minute.

T'was a quiet NPD due to continued Nintendomination, little bad that could be said about 360 and the fact that the Sony squad is down to about three active posters.

It's been rough.
 
So, did Sony give this month's press release a miss? I certainly don't envy their PR department.

UK Resistance made me laugh with its, twisted as ever, notion of how Sony could optimistically appraise the situation.

ps3-best-of-five.jpg


I was chuckled by the alternative hidden text on the image code - "'We have officially decided to make it 'best of five' regarding console generations.'"

I'm not too good at predicting, what's the expected impact of KZ2 on hardware sales?
 

Epiphyte

Member
bmf said:
It's not just you. Thread is short. Groundhog Day Effect. Every month it's the same:

1) Wii
2) XBox 360
3) PS3

No PS3 game sold more than 113k, and there were either one or two of them in the top 30. Wired's blog has platform top 10s and all platform top 20 (no numbers), and we've got top 10 all platforms in the first post (with numbers). Nintendo has stated that 20 of the top 30 were on Nintendo platforms. Microsoft's press release all but completely ignored the NPD release, and Sony didn't even bother.

That, and I'm pretty sure the thread only garnered two bans.
The killzone threads wiped out a lot of the more obvious trolls as well
 

Arde5643

Member
Opiate said:
Absolutely, that is possible -- I'd say it's unlikely, however. We do have examples of well known developers trying their hand at more casual titles. For example, Gearbox with Samba de Amigo, which recieved poor reviews and did not sell well.

Thus, the counter argument to your point is this: the people who do try to make casual games do not succeed like Nintendo does. Therefore, we label them "bad developers" because they did not succeed in the casual space. Rather than "bad developers" causing bad "casual" titles, it is bad "casual" titles causing us to label them "bad developers." As soon as they do produce a good "casual" title, then voila, they're suddenly "good developers."

This explanation seems significantly more plausible. It seems unlikely that there is a vast, industry wide conspiracy to prevent anyone who might be considered a "good developer" from working on a casual title, particularly when so much money is being lost.

Again, your explanation is possible, but I would say it's very unlikely.
Does this make Level 5 an excellent casual game developer and pretty decent core game developer?

Because their Layton titles beat the pants off most of their other products for most people.

Perhaps there's another factor, some developers/publishers might be more successful than others in creating a casual game, even with the same AAA tier developers.
 

markatisu

Member
Still baffled that Sony has not issued a press release, they have always been able to spin something relating to Playstation Family

I guess the combo of year of year decrease on every one of their systems and two games in the Top 30 was way too much for them to take in.
 
Epiphyte said:
The killzone threads wiped out a lot of the more obvious trolls as well
I was under the impression that the Killzone threads were mind-shattering pits of insanity where no mod could go lest they lose their own wit.

Neat.
 

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
So now I'm thinking that Killzone 2 might not even be the best-selling PS3 game of next month's NPD, since it's only out for two days and it's up against Street Fighter 4, which is (let's face it) a bigger name.
 

Narcosis

Member
Leondexter said:
There's only one question worth answering, really, and it's one we also don't have nearly enough info to answer: are PS3 games turning a worthwhile profit?

If they're not, we'll see the results soon enough. But as long as there's a PS3 version of most games, we can assume PS3 software sales are "good enough".

I still notice most of the recently announced HD games are still 3 platform affairs, so nothing much seems to have changed over the last year in regards to developer support on PC, 360 and PS3. It;s a safe assumption that most developers are at least meeting their minimum expectations on these 3 platforms, and I;d bet most of them have access to alot more data than we do and feel the 3 platform strategy is justified by their numbers.


Htown said:
So now I'm thinking that Killzone 2 might not even be the best-selling PS3 game of next month's NPD, since it's only out for two days and it's up against Street Fighter 4, which is (let's face it) a bigger name.

Street Fighter 4 is gonna sell a bajillion copies across all the platforms. Nothing else will come close. It will outsell the rest of the top 10 combined. gifs of dragon punches and flame kicks will overtake every GAF thread. All avatars will wear Ryu bandanas.
 
Htown said:
So now I'm thinking that Killzone 2 might not even be the best-selling PS3 game of next month's NPD, since it's only out for two days and it's up against Street Fighter 4, which is (let's face it) a bigger name.

Well when would all the pre-orders count? I'd guess there are more pre-orders for KZ2 than SFIV. My guess for KZ2 is around the same for MGS4 the first month, 750K-800K.
 

Azure J

Member
Narcosis said:
Street Fighter 4 is gonna sell a bajillion copies across all the platforms. Nothing else will come close. It will outsell the rest of the top 10 combined. gifs of dragon punches and flame kicks will overtake every GAF thread. All avatars will wear Ryu bandanas.

Oh good, I thought for a bit that more people wouldn't see things this way. Agreed whole heartedly btw, especially on the GAF front.
 
Narcosis said:
Street Fighter 4 is gonna sell a bajillion copies across all the platforms. Nothing else will come close. It will outsell the rest of the top 10 combined. gifs of dragon punches and flame kicks will overtake every GAF thread. All avatars will wear Ryu bandanas.
I like this idea. Does anyone feel like giving my avatar a hachimaki?
 

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
somuchwater said:
Well when would all the pre-orders count? I'd guess there are more pre-orders for KZ2 than SFIV. My guess for KZ2 is around the same for MGS4 the first month, 750K-800K.
Really? I disagree.

I'm betting Killzone 2 doesn't come anywhere near MGS4 numbers.
 
Htown said:
Really? I disagree.

I'm betting Killzone 2 doesn't come anywhere near MGS4 numbers.

To me, KZ2 seems like a more mainstream game. I know that MGS is obviously a much bigger franchise, but Killzone just seems much more Gears of War like in its potential to appeal to the 'not casual/not hardcore' demographic that also buys game like COD:WaW etc. Admittedly, it's a guess though. Could be totally wrong.
 

Blame!

Member
are people really being cautious about killzone 2 predictions?

i think it iwll blow most anything out of the water in Feb, outside of SF4. then we will really see it start to do well in march, even against RE5.

this game has that FPS appeal similar to games like COD and halo. no reason why it can't perform.
 
Blame! said:
are people really being cautious about killzone 2 predictions?

i think it iwll blow most anything out of the water in Feb, outside of SF4. then we will really see it start to do well in march, even against RE5.

this game has that FPS appeal similar to games like COD and halo. no reason why it can't perform.

So as I keep asking where is your prediction for the first two months of sales along with hardware?
 

Meier

Member
I honestly think Killzone 2 has zero hype outside of video game forums -- have they even started to run any ads yet? How many days of its sales are in the February NPD period?

2 days of sales? 250k tops... but I wouldn't doubt if it was a good bit below that.
 
somuchwater said:
Well when would all the pre-orders count? I'd guess there are more pre-orders for KZ2 than SFIV. My guess for KZ2 is around the same for MGS4 the first month, 750K-800K.

I hope it sells more then that. Rainbow Six Vegas 2 sold this much in an off month like March and that's only counting the 360 sku.
 

Gotchaye

Member
Opiate, that's an interesting point, and it may well be true, but I'm not convinced.

I don't know to what extent developers making casual games are constrained by their publishers, but my feeling is that it's a significant effect. First, the vast majority of successful casual games have huge advertising pushes. Nintendo's software is no exception here, especially if you consider Wii console commercials as commercials for the whole Wii line of games (which they obviously are). There are also going to be budgetary concerns. But, most of all, isn't it publishers that play the role of network executives? They're the ones doing market research and asking "is it casual enough for those retard gamers?"

I'm inclined to say that it's mostly good publishing practices that make Nintendo and, to a lesser extent, a few others so successful. Nintendo's been very good about not dumbing down games, and the guitar games, for example, got their start before everyone was so concerned about lowest common denominator gaming on the Wii.
 
Leondexter said:
:lol Indeed! It is a weird feeling, isn't it, to be discussing whether Sony is just hurting, or keeling over? And this from a guy who's been through all the ups and downs. During the PS2 era, it really did seem like the industry had matured and cemented with Sony on top. Turns out it's just as volatile as ever.


"$599 US dollars" will echo through-out history, almost as long as "peace in our time".

I fear for killzone.
 

Gotchaye

Member
To clarify, the big thing that Nintendo's doing right is that they're letting their developers make good games that casuals will like instead of telling their developers to just make games to appeal to a target demographic.

It's a lot like what you see every so often with games targeting females. They're uniformly awful, and they never sell that well. I'd wager that a whole bunch of Nintendo franchises tend to do much better with female gamers than these targeted games ever do. I think the reason for this is pretty well agreed-upon at this point - girls and women don't flock to games that imply that they need a game to have lots of pink and horsies in order to have fun. And they're not idiots - they recognize that most of the female-targeted games are going to be bad games.

Likewise with casuals. Wii Sports is, before all else, a very polished game that works very well with the Wii remote. Sold for $30, as in Japan, I'd imagine that most self-identifying hardcore Wii owners would still own the game. Stuff on the DS like Nintendogs and Brain Training has the same level of polish. They're all well-considered games with lots of content. And most of the rest of Nintendo's multi-million sellers aren't even obviously casual, and are among the most critically acclaimed games on their respective systems (critical acclaim being a good marker for core appeal).

It's not that Wii Sports took a prodigious level of skill to develop; it's that it was developed by people who understand that casual gamers aren't retarded.
 

Cheech

Member
Narcosis said:
Street Fighter 4 is gonna sell a bajillion copies across all the platforms. Nothing else will come close. It will outsell the rest of the top 10 combined. gifs of dragon punches and flame kicks will overtake every GAF thread. All avatars will wear Ryu bandanas.

It would be refreshing to see that kind of enthusiasm for a multiplatform game.

KZ2's main problem is WaW. It steamrolled R2, and with the legs it is showing, how many people are going to actively play two shooters?
 

WarLox

Member
[Nintex] said:
It's set in stone and since I'm bored anyway let me explain:

Nintendo was building the Titanic and thought, fuck it we'll build a train instead. They made that train and it's still rolling better than the Titanic ever will.

Microsoft build the Titanic, the building quality was dodgy and the tickets were quite expensive it got quite far. Just when they were about to hit an iceberg they dropped the price of the tickets, set back for their port and set sail for another year.

Sony build a Titanic, made the tickets too expensive and sunk their lifeboats while they're heading full steam ahead towards a huge iceberg with blinders on.


dwfVLA1232423313.gif



please... me next, I cant keep reading this garbage
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
creamsugar said:
Consoles LTD:

PS2 - 43,736,000
Wii - 18,227,000
XBOX - 14,477,000
XBOX 360 - 14,206,000
GC - 11,832,000
PS3 - 7,006,000
If the 360 doesn't pass the Xbox in February it will for sure in March. Nice.
 

FrankT

Member
creamsugar said:
Consoles LTD:

PS2 - 43,736,000
Wii - 18,227,000
XBOX - 14,477,000
XBOX 360 - 14,206,000
GC - 11,832,000
PS3 - 7,006,000

LTD

DS 28.052 mil
PSP 14.513 mil
360 14.169 mil
PS3 6.997 mil
Wii 18.219 mil

6.997 to be exact from early in the thread, but thx for the original Xbox numbers.
 

ultim8p00

Banned
Jtyettis said:
2z5p4jo.gif
ev6eu1.gif
2e0lbox.gif


Does this seem obvious? I mean really.


Hint, 7.1 million lead and growing, yea.

Dude, chill out. It was a joke. It's obviously a pretty dumb thing to say.

NPD threads :lol
I don't even have a PS3 :lol
 

RSTEIN

Comics, serious business!
Meier said:
I honestly think Killzone 2 has zero hype outside of video game forums -- have they even started to run any ads yet? How many days of its sales are in the February NPD period?

Yeah, they need to get their shit together. I've seen 3 FEAR 2 television ads this week!
 
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