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Heh...yeah the libary keeps on growing and essential stuff like VC or even non-gaming Apps ala Netflix etc. are missing. So the notion that it just suddenly stops selling when they have Prime 4, Pokemon and Animal Crossing already lined up for next year...and more publishers/indies embracing the platform seems....weird.
Not saying that its impossible...but the market would have change quite fast for the Switch being not a viable product anymore. Nintendo teams will go out on Switch after they have seen what for software sales are possible with them targeting gamers....there are still a bunch of Nintendo IPs that havent made the jump to HD yet. Luigis Mansion 3 for example is an obvious choice...
LordRaptor
Member
Well, part of their traditional failure to transition with droughts at the beginning and end of lifespans is at least partly due to lack of third party support not filling that gap.
DeuceGamer
Member
Yea, Nintendo aren't going to magically run out of IP's, that's one thing we know for sure. We still have huge system sellers like Smash, Pokémon, Animal Crossing, 2D Mario, and a new Mario Kart that may still release on Switch on top of plenty of older IP's that can be revived.
I don't think I said anything might happen. Also what were the initial expectations; better than Wii U? I realise it sold out over launch, that's not surprising, especially with the low stock (NAND related I imagine). What I would love to see would be sales figures of the console compared to other consoles. I've been a bit out of the loop on all that.
Also, I don't really consider game sales to be particularly interesting at present on the system. There's not a lot to play on the machine so of course people will pick up what's there; especially if it's a proven franchise like MK, Zelda etc.
But that's cool, if I'm imagining the deflation of interest that's good news in general.
Overall, I just want more games (The current selection is really sad) and I hope that comes if the sales keep up. I also want those games to not be little indie rubbish like a lot of them currently are on the system. I realise it wouldn't get the next Assassins Creed, but games like Fortnite etc would be great to see on it.
There will be some degree of overlap, but 7-10m units sold is still sizable when we're talking ltd userbases of approx 50-60m. That's not a "swift death", and there no real consistent pattern here. The reality is the successful Nintendo platforms tend to still move millions amd get games and revisions late and post-active cycle, the unsuccessful ones don't. And even then there are still exceptions.
3DS has already sold more than NES anyway. If it did only 10m more like NES it's past 75m for example. If it does the 25m+ GBA did then we're past 90m.
side note, we don't know that Prime and Pokemon are next year. I know the NOA guy said 2018 but I doubt even internal Nintendo is sure at this point.
And AC hasn't even been announced yet.
I think there's a decent chance 2/3 or even 3/3 make 2018, but "already lined up for next year" is bad wording.
that being said, i think 2018 will have plenty of big games that haven't been announced yet.
Talking about hardware sold is silly. Hardware sold has been less important as total software sales for a long time now.
Hardware is just a delivery mechanism for a higher number of software purchases, which is where hardware makers make most of their money, through 1st-party sales and licensing fees, and to say otherwise invalidates the loss leader strategy held by PS2, PS3, Xbox and Xbox 360. Even Nintendo, who appreciates having a sales margin on hardware, never goes too high with those margins, since a lower sale price on hardware will always be of a greater value in that it increases an install base to sell more software.
I mean, if you have a 100 million install base but your attach rate is only 2:1, then you're still going to be seen as less of a success than a piece of hardware with a 50 million install base with an 6:1 ratio. (this is why tie ratio isn't a completely valid metric either, since that 50 million with a 3:1 tie ratio is better than a 2:1 ratio, but ultimately still underperforms in software sales)
Ultimately, the hardware that sells more software comes out ahead of the pack. This is why the 360 was still the king over PS3, even when the gap was closed on hardware, because the 360 tie ratio was significantly higher, and Wii bested both of them.
So, TL;DR version? Switch's total hardware sales will likely mean a whole lot less than total software units sold, and as of right now in that regard, it's probably Nintendo's biggest success since Wii.
Hardware is just a delivery mechanism for a higher number of software purchases, which is where hardware makers make most of their money, through 1st-party sales and licensing fees, and to say otherwise invalidates the loss leader strategy held by PS2, PS3, Xbox and Xbox 360. Even Nintendo, who appreciates having a sales margin on hardware, never goes too high with those margins, since a lower sale price on hardware will always be of a greater value in that it increases an install base to sell more software.
I mean, if you have a 100 million install base but your attach rate is only 2:1, then you're still going to be seen as less of a success than a piece of hardware with a 50 million install base with an 6:1 ratio. (this is why tie ratio isn't a completely valid metric either, since that 50 million with a 3:1 tie ratio is better than a 2:1 ratio, but ultimately still underperforms in software sales)
Ultimately, the hardware that sells more software comes out ahead of the pack. This is why the 360 was still the king over PS3, even when the gap was closed on hardware, because the 360 tie ratio was significantly higher, and Wii bested both of them.
So, TL;DR version? Switch's total hardware sales will likely mean a whole lot less than total software units sold, and as of right now in that regard, it's probably Nintendo's biggest success since Wii.
I get the point you're trying to make but there's other factors now with Switch. Nintendo have a tonne of accessories they sell for the system. Extra joy cons, docks, charging grips etc. Things that the 3DS/WiiU (Apart from pro controller really) didn't have and it *looks* like Nintendo are making good profit on those as they are charging a shitload for them. They would be factoring in accessory sales in there forecasts for sure.
Whether they feel that can make up for dual system profits I'm not sure, so maybe at some point they release a Switch mini which is just the handheld and they can play all games. Some people then might get two.
ghostwritingduck
Member
Counter argument. Mario Kart Wii has sold more than any COD, Destiny or Red Dead game.
Yeah, you can clearly see that they learned from their 3DS/WiiU lineup woes and are planning on having a solid release per month.
True, but....
We know that these games are coming thats the point - same for Yoshi, Kirby, Smash Bros. etc.Its not like in the past were you had to wonder if a game might come to WiiU or they would just release it on a handheld. Obv. nothing is official until its announced but we are speculating here and the release schedule pretty much implies that 2018 is the year this games might hit. Same could be said for Pikmin 4 after Shiggys comments about it.
Its been over 4 years since new Leaf - we know that there will be a mobile release this year and they want mobile users to upgrade to console/main AC series - that will be on Switch.
Also between VC and ports they have alot of content they can bring over to Switch from previous gens to fill the release list. We know for example that Platinum is working on a new interesting Switch title, but at the same time will likely port Bayo 1+2 to Switch as well for fans to play in the meantime.
The fact that 2018 is already looking solid in July 2017 says it all - this is before their fall conference, early 2018 conference or whatever they will have at next e3. If they just unveil and give us what people already expect +1-2 Captain Toad/Wave Race like surprises most fans would probably be very happy with it. Assuming the games have the quality of the first year releases.
OrbitalBeard
Member
New Leaf launched in November 2012 in Japan. It'll be six years old next year, so I think the time is right. And I think it'll be a global launch this time.
ghostwritingduck
Member
I think the idea of Nintendo's next system not being a fully backward compatible Super Switch is mistaken. The only major video game change in the horizon, VR, could be realized one more powerful Switch iteration.
that's not a counter argument.
not that the other poster made much sense either.
I guess I'm not understanding how these games will make it unique when most of these games will also be on PC/PS4 and sometimes X1. There may be a sizable audience for those games on switch but that mean the library is unique. Just don't see switch having as many 3rd party exclusives as 3DS.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
You're mistaken. It's not even selling at the same pace as the PS4. Even without the supply issues, I don't think it would be setting any sales records either, but it's definitely selling well which is all that matters. Nintendo just need to sort this issue out and capitalise on the hype before it dies down though.
even with stock issues it already set a record as the fastest selling Nintendo console opening in NA and EU
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=231635009&postcount=1
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1360413
I personally don't know how it'd be doing with no stock issues, but I'm wondering what evidence you have for your statement
John Dunbar
correct about everything
"3ds and vita" software list only having 3ds games will never stop being funny.
It's not as fun as PS3 vs. GBA hardware numbers, though.
ghostwritingduck
Member
I probably should have explained myself better. The other poster was arguining that Switch was going to hit a ceiling of users due to not having big third party games. Nintendo's first party games have sold better than most third party games when they're on top of their game. Check out a list of the best selling games of all time. Nintendo's published over half of the top 50 best selling games of all time.
Is what I said really hard to comprehend? Simply put If you buy a switch you're pretty much relegated to Nintendo games only. You'll miss all big 3rd party games That's fine for die hard Nintendo fans.
That's a tough sell for the average consumer. Which is why I said Switch will be a secondary Console for many. I'm not sure why people downplay the importance of 3rd party games.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Ehh it probably would, its only a couple hundred thousand below PS4 and that start to subsidize itself around the 5 months in due to Splatoon 2 hopefully.
No one wants to downplay the importance of 3rd party games. They are extremely important as evidence by the Wii U having some of the worse droughts for a console. Also sales for Bomberman, Disgea 5, and Snake Pass say otherwise. People aren't just buying Nintendo games for the thing(when FIFA, Skyrim, and NBA2K come out that will show).
phantasmic_glaive
Member
I wouldn't hold my breath. And I have yet to see them ever discount anything to reasonable prices, fast.
This is Nintendo we're talking about here.i expect the Switch to stay $300 for a couple years, with them stacking value of some sort.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Yeah I meant this year since honestly the PS4 is still of course selling really well but if the Switch had stock it would not be far off.
And by that I mean Switch my bad
LordRaptor
Member
The problem is you are defining "existing console owners" as "The average consumer".
~100 million PS360 owners haven't bought a PS4 or X1 for COD or Destiny. Great news for T2 if thy're all just waiting for RDR, but that seems highly unlikely.
Are they all "Diehard Nintendo fans"? Also seems unlikely.
NintendosBooger
Member
Give him a few minutes. It takes a while for a hand to reach around and pull it out.
GameCube says hi. And that's just the one example that immediately came to mind.
ghostwritingduck
Member
Nintendo has reduced the cost of systems regularly, sometimes even aggressively. The Wii U was a major exception because they didn't want to take a loss on the overstock of systems they had already manufactured.
DeuceGamer
Member
I agree they should iterate on the Switch hardware and it's likely, but with Nintendo you just never know lol.
How close is it? If it's close one thing that we should remember is that Switch hasn't had a holiday season yet and is supply constrained. I don't expect it will outsell PS4, but I think that's an important piece of the difference as well.
LordRaptor
Member
Japan actually just had new hardware revision bump
DeuceGamer
Member
Another obvious example was the 3DS price cut.
Edit
Was it this year Reggie said the 3DS sales were up year over year, or was he referring to last year?
Edit 2: I think it was this Fiscal year but last calendar year, but may be off.
Nintendo products start cheap in the US and if they aren't selling get a price drop quickly. Even the Wii U got knocked down 50 bucks when they got rid of the basic unit.
Boombloxer
Member
System seller for the past gen leader has no relevance here.
Do you think this is likely to happen again?
The poster wasn't wrong in saying big third party games matter, but he was missing the third party games that are there. And as you alluded to, he was downplaying the importance of 1st party games coupled with a good console concept. They are big sellers and drive console sales.
MKwii did as one game, but bringing up Cod was weird since it sells up to 20m every year.
you said "The hardcore Nintendo fans will support it no doubt. Problem is once that support dries up where's the support come from? No Cod or Destiny or Red dead Redemption etc I think it's gonna be a tough uphill battle."
No doubt it's going to miss the big third party games. But you're acting like it's getting no 3rd party games. And you're ignoring Japan. 2018 will be telling Japan wise. Red Dead, GTA, etc weren't going to happen even if the console was traditional imo. It was always going to miss the big 3rd western third parties as you said.
SW sales have shown third parties have been doing well so far despite no big names yet. Switch owners aren't just buying 1st party games
Fifa and NBA 2k will be interesing to see. If those do well that'll turn into 2 yearly big western sellers. So we'll wait and see.
overall it was always going to be big 1st party games, some west 3rd parties, a lot of JP third parties, and the new into the equation in indies. That's the support you said isn't there.
MatPiscatella
Member
Just thought I'd throw out there that no video game franchise is bigger than Mario, and no video game character has more global recognition than Mario.
And not every potential video game consumer wants to shoot things. A lot of them in fact are put off by all the shooters and violent action games on PS4 and Xbox One.
What % down is "humming along quietly" and what % down would be "plummeted"?
We label that table "Portable". I think Nirolak labels it "3DS and Vita" for clarity.
True. My take on this is that Pokemon will release when Nintendo is ready to push for multi-console ownership per household. Meaning, when supply can keep up with demand, and when they want to get a second push in each adopting home.
This is what makes the sales potential of Switch quite different than any home console before it. It could follow a home console adoption curve and volume, but then when households start buying multiple Switch? That's when things get really interesting.
If things keep humming along, and demand stays strong, thinking more '19 for Pokemon, but I don't know anything for certain.
And not every potential video game consumer wants to shoot things. A lot of them in fact are put off by all the shooters and violent action games on PS4 and Xbox One.
What % down is "humming along quietly" and what % down would be "plummeted"?
We label that table "Portable". I think Nirolak labels it "3DS and Vita" for clarity.
True. My take on this is that Pokemon will release when Nintendo is ready to push for multi-console ownership per household. Meaning, when supply can keep up with demand, and when they want to get a second push in each adopting home.
This is what makes the sales potential of Switch quite different than any home console before it. It could follow a home console adoption curve and volume, but then when households start buying multiple Switch? That's when things get really interesting.
If things keep humming along, and demand stays strong, thinking more '19 for Pokemon, but I don't know anything for certain.
DeuceGamer
Member
I think this is a very important argument that a lot of people tend to forget.
Not even Pikachu? Or are you not counting that as a character?
I would guess Pikachu has more global recognition but that's the only one that probably comes close
What about League of Legends, Minecraft and GTA? Brand wise I would say there not far behind.
John Dunbar
correct about everything
pls don't ruin this.
MatPiscatella
Member
michaelius
Banned
Uh, more than 30% decline YOY is plummeting? I don't really know. I'm mostly just curious as to how the Switch affected the 3DS, if at all. I expect it to be down either way since it's old and doesn't have a lot of major software coming out, but it's holding steady in Japan, so maybe it's doing better than I expect.
Jawbreaker
Member
They should all be buying The Last Guardian then. That game would be sitting at 20 million sold if people had hearts. Soulless, the lot of ya'! I guess Crash Bandicoot is a decent alternative.
NintendosBooger
Member
None of those franchises are as popular as Mario unless you're exluding its market and commercial worth outside of video game consoles. Last I checked, Rockstar can't really license out their brands to amusement parks, toy manufacturers, movie studios or any place else.