What makes you say this? That's wrong for at least the DS and the 3DS, and arguably so for the PS3. They all sold better later in their lives.Why shouldn't it? Consoles don't reallymomentum long after launch, and if this thing don't sell enough units sooner than later the games are going to dry up.
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Lupin3
Targeting terrorists with a D-Pad
I don't.
geordiemp
Member
In Japan yes, outside Japan it is not IMO.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Nah, it's pretty clear in NA as well. Europe? I would agree it could go either way.
switch is doing incredibly well to retain interest at this level (selling out monthly) considering the many drawbacks to the platform. it's just a much more attractive product than anyone anticipated, including nintendo. and considering a level of success it's achieving in most regions, i think it could easily clear 3ds numbers and approach ps3 or 360 numbers if not wii outright.
i also saw some for the first time in stores. there were six left when i walked in the store in the afternoon, and the three people in front of me got one. according to the dad who i spoke with, the tustin best buy store was the only one in orange county with stock, and they had come from westminister to get their system.
also, good on the likes of disgaea 5 and cave story charting. there aren't a lot of switch games, but there are enough where games like that would be off the charts instead. it tells me that there's a want out there for japanese games and an audience for sprite-based games at retail - full-priced or not. it's going to really differentiate the platform from its competitors.
i also saw some for the first time in stores. there were six left when i walked in the store in the afternoon, and the three people in front of me got one. according to the dad who i spoke with, the tustin best buy store was the only one in orange county with stock, and they had come from westminister to get their system.
also, good on the likes of disgaea 5 and cave story charting. there aren't a lot of switch games, but there are enough where games like that would be off the charts instead. it tells me that there's a want out there for japanese games and an audience for sprite-based games at retail - full-priced or not. it's going to really differentiate the platform from its competitors.
Well you should. There's a reason GTAV sells so well.
wrestleman
Member
All of you doubting Spyro are probably advance preordering a hefty plate of crow (should Activision decide to do that, that is)
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yep. It's like Crash all over again.
Ports are going to differentiate it from other consoles?
the audience being drawn towards japanese third-party games and sprite/retro titles is going to give it a different makeup versus other platforms. i imagine it will be like the 3ds in that regard. no one would say the 3ds is an unsuccessful platform - aside from comparing it to its predecessor, but it has a pretty unique library among all the 8th gen platforms.
Get we get an AMA?
Yeah that's why I asked. Before launch there was a lot of hype going around (Note, I don't live in the US) but it felt like it's dropped off and they haven't really hit it big with any other titles like Zelda.
Will be interesting then to see how sales go once it can get enough in the stores....assuming people still care.
dude the system is outperforming expectations to an insane degree. mario kart is doing well, and first-party and third-party games are doing well in general.
what you think might happen is literally unprecedented.
I used to think on a GAF thread, and after PS4 had a successful 4-6 months ( I think ), that it would be roughly 70M LTD when the runs end. Now, it's likely going to reach 90-100M LTD territories with future exclusive pipeline ( Spidey, GoW, TLoU 2 ) drawing huge numbers on social media.
The thing is I don't know what's going to be the catalyst for Switch. Would the likes of refreshing traditional IPs and new ones like Splatoon pulled Switch to reach 3ds 22M+ numbers in Japan? How would the rest of the world fare? Then there's this pricey accessories and higher msrp to take account to. I omitted online fees because well gamers seem not to mind them as much and it's only $20 on Switch.
The thing is I don't know what's going to be the catalyst for Switch. Would the likes of refreshing traditional IPs and new ones like Splatoon pulled Switch to reach 3ds 22M+ numbers in Japan? How would the rest of the world fare? Then there's this pricey accessories and higher msrp to take account to. I omitted online fees because well gamers seem not to mind them as much and it's only $20 on Switch.
It is having a better launch than 3DS in the US despite being supply constrained. In fact I think it should be ahead even after the 3DS price drop. Switch also have a large room to price drops and redesigns like portable only device, home console only etc. I think it is the right path to outsell the 3DS in the west and not be far behind it in Japan.
LordRaptor
Member
What he actually thought would happen is in his post history if you mistook his "concern" as legitimate
Toni
Member
Detective Gaf strikes again!
LordRaptor
Member
Remembering posters names who have mini meltdowns is hardly detective gaf.
DeuceGamer
Member
Are those Switch numbers right for the US? I thought I remembered seeing it had sold significantly more than that, though still trailing the Wii.
thestopsign
Member
They are right. March and June are both 5 week months in NPD, so even if absolute numbers seem higher than they are it is due to an extra week of sales.
MatPiscatella
Member
Wanted to touch on Switch.
So, in a supply constrained environment, comparing point in time sales to benchmarks doesn't do a whole lot of good for forecasting the future. Comparing Switch and Wii is interesting to look at a point in time, but because both were supply constrained, launched at different times of the year, etc it's not useful for the outlook.
All a LTD comparison from Switch to Wii will tell you is something about the supply chain and maybe something about regional allocation.
What to do, then?
Well, you gotta get a little creative.
Nintendo is on the record saying they want to get to 10m shipped WW in the first calendar year (2017).
From there, you can do some regional allocation guesses. I'm assuming somewhere in the neighborhood of 40-44% of that will go to the US.
If Nintendo does ship 10m WW, and the US gets that percentage of allocation, then you can estimate that US will get 4-4.4m or so.
So that gets you to your sales cap for the year. Then, you have to estimate what % of that you think will sell.
Finally, you can take that number, and compare to the first 10 months of other platforms to get to a better comparable.
Now the thing to watch is Nintendo's earnings and to see if they have an updated planned ship number for the year, and then you can start the exercise over.
Sorry for the long post. It's difficult to use normalized demand sales analytics (like benchmark comps) when demand isn't normalized for the product being analyzed or the benchmarks.
I can't really get into specific title performance, but yes, popular JRPGs tend to have similar drops (on a monthly basis) from month 1 to month 2. The JRPG fanbase is passionate, and must have the latest and greatest day 1.
So, in a supply constrained environment, comparing point in time sales to benchmarks doesn't do a whole lot of good for forecasting the future. Comparing Switch and Wii is interesting to look at a point in time, but because both were supply constrained, launched at different times of the year, etc it's not useful for the outlook.
All a LTD comparison from Switch to Wii will tell you is something about the supply chain and maybe something about regional allocation.
What to do, then?
Well, you gotta get a little creative.
Nintendo is on the record saying they want to get to 10m shipped WW in the first calendar year (2017).
From there, you can do some regional allocation guesses. I'm assuming somewhere in the neighborhood of 40-44% of that will go to the US.
If Nintendo does ship 10m WW, and the US gets that percentage of allocation, then you can estimate that US will get 4-4.4m or so.
So that gets you to your sales cap for the year. Then, you have to estimate what % of that you think will sell.
Finally, you can take that number, and compare to the first 10 months of other platforms to get to a better comparable.
Now the thing to watch is Nintendo's earnings and to see if they have an updated planned ship number for the year, and then you can start the exercise over.
Sorry for the long post. It's difficult to use normalized demand sales analytics (like benchmark comps) when demand isn't normalized for the product being analyzed or the benchmarks.
I can't really get into specific title performance, but yes, popular JRPGs tend to have similar drops (on a monthly basis) from month 1 to month 2. The JRPG fanbase is passionate, and must have the latest and greatest day 1.
DeuceGamer
Member
So after 4 months the Switch install base was only at ~350,000? That can't be right. Are those weekly numbers rather than monthly?
theprodigy
Member
thestopsign
Member
Right. This is a good way to look at it. I am going to assume Nintendo has originally allocated 4000k Switches to the US for FY 2018. With roughly ~660k sales in Q1 that leaves 3340k left for Q2-Q4 or 9 months. That comes out to ~371k per month for the rest of the FY.
We have to include an assumed surge in units for the Q3 holidays though. Lets assume half of those units ship in Q3 or ~1670k, and the other half ship in Q2/Q4. That leaves ~278k in non-Q3 months. I think that would be a pretty reasonable amount for them to ship per month to the US out of the holidays. The problem will definitely be in Q3 with Mario Odyssey and a backlog of strong first year titles like Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, and Mario + Rabbids. They will need more units than they can ship.
Preach.
MatPiscatella
Member
My conclusion as well.
And when you compare the first 10 months looking at it this way, It is very possible, if not quite likely, that Switch sales will exceed Wii by that time.
I still haven't baked this into NPD's forecast, because the Wii is such an outlier looking at historical comps, but I'm beginning to be much more comfortable with the idea of doing so.
LordRaptor
Member
If rumours are true and Nintendos stock issues are a result of competition sourcing components with Apple and Apple are planning on releasing 4 new devices at that time, this is going to be even more compounded.
i'm familiar with azak. he was a diehard nintendo fan who i guess felt betrayed during some generation and now everything is viewed with an extremely negative outlook.
Gotdatmoney
Member
You're right; it's better than both.
Are people really nostalgic for Spyro the Dragon? I haven't heard much of that. I don't remember it being all that big a deal back then, either -- although I was just getting into gaming at the time, so maybe I missed the Spyro hype. I remember playing it a little with my then-stepdaughter and thinking it was a nice, colorful, cute little platformer, but that was about it.
People are pretty nostalgic for Spyro. But the difference is that property is still being developed where as Crash had been pretty dormant for a while.
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In regards to the Switch I'm much more optimistic about it just due to it getting good effort sports titles. Those are solid consistent support that helps pad out a library.
DeuceGamer
Member
The way it's written is a bit confusing because it also says monthly and then the table says month. I'm guessing that's the average weekly sales per month?
DeuceGamer
Member
Not sure if this is something you can even answer, but I'll ask anyway.
How many do you expect them to forecast for next fiscal year? Also, how many do you think they could/would have sold if not for being so supply constrained?
thestopsign
Member
I fully expect Nintendo to increase their shipment forecast for this year by a million or two if they can get the parts they need. That would leave them at ~14 million shipped in 13 months.
It is kind of foolish to predict two years out when we don't know what they have planned software or potentially hardware wise (Revision?), but I think a safe, low end guess would be in the 12-15 million range with potential for more if Pokémon, Animal Crossing, and Smash come out during the next fiscal year.
It is kind of foolish to predict two years out when we don't know what they have planned software or potentially hardware wise (Revision?), but I think a safe, low end guess would be in the 12-15 million range with potential for more if Pokémon, Animal Crossing, and Smash come out during the next fiscal year.
I'm a little surprised the Switch is supply constrained when it's only selling a little over 200K in the USA for the month. Feels like Nintendo is still being conservative and worried about over shipping. You would think they would be ramping up production hard for the holiday season and they could probably clear 10 million worldwide by the end of the calendar year 2017, instead of waiting on fiscal year shipments.
the problem is that they're competing for parts with apple supposedly. i think they're doing whatever they can at this point, which also means aligning shipments with bigger games, which is why mario kart, arms, and splatoon 2 all had more than a trickle into retail.
ronaldthump
Member
Horizon Zero Dawn being in the top 10 and being top 5 for a single platform = so much yes.
I'm a big Sony fan, and I thought those who predicted 100 million a few years ago were crazy.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Not that crazy since Sony worst selling consoles is PS3 with 85million plus .
A good PS4 launch always meant good numbers since they did not fuck up .
Of course some were thinking consoles dead thanks to Wii U and other factors .
The short-term issues aren't just a lack of components. They clearly underestimated initial demand. Now they cannot go from one day to another and increase production and then expecting twice the amount of systems in store the next week. Things like that take time.
At the same time, it doesn't make much sense to set up a new production line to double production in order to meet short-term demand, only to be left with excess supply after that initial demand is met. Such investments need to be carefully examined to avoid failure.
With the start it had in Japan I thought the same, but it looks like it will sell a bit better there now, not enough to be called good but it should sell around the same as PS3.
I think it will end between 100 million and 120 million. It will depend when PS5 is released and how much it will cost.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Why? Japan wasn't going to determine 100M.
But I thought it would determine Japan support. With weaker support from Japan I don't think it would be selling so well, but it still getting the big games from Japan and it actually have a better support than PS3.
It's generally keeping pace with PS3 in Japan but unless it has just as long a lifecycle it won't match it in the end.
mejin
Member
PS360 lived long enough to achieve those numbers. Wonder if nintendo will let Switch to live more than 4, 5 years till go for a new product.
Anyway, Switch is really in a good position.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Still that did not matter for a lot Japanese IP since last gen there target was the west .
A lot of the big consoles Japanese IP sell more in the west any way and even smaller ones now .
switch is having a better start than either one of those platforms (at least ps3), so that shouldn't be an issue. thanks to its hybrid nature, it'll also be easier to sell more than one to one household, and revisions could target the more traditional handheld base as well, especially with lower price point. i think we'll see a switch mini earlier than a switch pro.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Fair enough.
It is interesting how some of those Japan games have helped more west/worldwide rather than domestically.
I think Asia is the biggest factor here. Iirc there are a lot of games that sell better in the res of Asia than Japan lately.