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ForkNetwork
Banned
A 90k lead with Gears of War 4 released and people waiting for the Pro doesnt really convince me that November will go to XB1 when the Pro is already out.
I would love to be proven wrong, especially because then the NPD thread would be a salt disaster.
Nightengale
Member
It is a big win but I expected XB1 to have done better, since I also thought BF1 would do gangbusters well and moved a ton of hardware on top of Gears bundle. Chalk this to me being overly optimistic for BF1 again despite UK numbers disappointment lol.
30% sales gap is interesting though since I expect Pro to be at potentially 25-30% add-on sales to Slim at launch. So either PS4 sales are slightly lower or on par with XB1S this month.
30% sales gap is interesting though since I expect Pro to be at potentially 25-30% add-on sales to Slim at launch. So either PS4 sales are slightly lower or on par with XB1S this month.
Primethius
Banned
How are those BF numbers? I don't know the numbers for the older series but didn't Hardline sell a million in March?
The BF1 numbers seem unimpressive with that context.
The BF1 numbers seem unimpressive with that context.
BleedOrange
Banned
I'm sure a ton of people went digital with this one for Play Anywhere and the Ultimate Edition coming with early access. I'd wager digital is above 30% for this one.
Nightengale
Member
Comparing against BF4 is a handicap for BF1.
BF1 needs to be compared to BF3. That's where it's at.
BF1 needs to be compared to BF3. That's where it's at.
10 mill is an amazing amount of games, damn! I am really enjoying the game so far, it deserves it.
Welfare
Member
Code:
Xbox One 329,000
MoM Drop = 1.1%
YoY Rise = 8.4%
Weekly average
Xbox One September: 274,800 / 5 = 66,560
Xbox One October: 329,000 / 4 = 82,250
Rise = 23.6%
Code:
PS4 235,100
MoM Drop = 17.6%
YoY Drop = 14.4%
Weekly average
PS4 September: 285,300 / 5 = 57,060
PS4 October: 235,100 / 4 = 58,775
Rise = 3%Really interesting numbers.
Gap is bigger than I expected but PS4 sales are basically flat (actually slightly up) in weekly average over september and down 14% yoy.
Xbox gained a lot from the Gears or War bundles (>50k that is a huge chunk of the monthly gap) while the Battlefield 1 bundle didn't do much....hironically that what was Amazon was predicting, Uncharted 4 bundle best selling SKU, GOW bundle selling well for the whole month for Xbox and BF1 bundle not selling well, although this is the first month that Amazon fails miserably at predicting the winner. That probably means that Xbox is gaining consumers among a target that is more casual and tipically only buys things in store.
About Sony their strategy needs November datas to be properly validated as we don't know how many Pros they're going to sell and how many people were waiting for the BF deals.
So yeah November will be really interesting lol.
Gap is bigger than I expected but PS4 sales are basically flat (actually slightly up) in weekly average over september and down 14% yoy.
Xbox gained a lot from the Gears or War bundles (>50k that is a huge chunk of the monthly gap) while the Battlefield 1 bundle didn't do much....hironically that what was Amazon was predicting, Uncharted 4 bundle best selling SKU, GOW bundle selling well for the whole month for Xbox and BF1 bundle not selling well, although this is the first month that Amazon fails miserably at predicting the winner. That probably means that Xbox is gaining consumers among a target that is more casual and tipically only buys things in store.
About Sony their strategy needs November datas to be properly validated as we don't know how many Pros they're going to sell and how many people were waiting for the BF deals.
So yeah November will be really interesting lol.
Obliterator
Member
So about 1.2 million for Battlefield 1 launch. Pretty damn good. And almost a 100k gap in October is a big lead for the month for Xbox. Sony should rebound and take November but December is anyone's game imo
Not really since these Battlefield 4 numbers are for 360/PS3 only. The game had a big improvement in november when current gen versions came out.
Surface of Me
I'm not an NPC. And neither are we.
Considering that Gears is a big Xbox franchise and Mafia didnt have much competition on the PS4, Mafia being lopsided on PS4 isnt too farfetched. NPD also doesnt have digital for Gears.
Primethius
Banned
Interesting stats on BF, thanks guys (and Claire).
Good to see it doing solid.
Good to see it doing solid.
Goddamn.
wesleyshark
Banned
People are thirsty for historical war games. DICE delivered.
SatoAilDarko
Member
Why is it saying I have 14 hours left on these deals?
SmartWaffles
Member
I still think PS4 will take November. Pro plus black friday is just too big a boon.
More than 2 million.
Nightengale
Member
September PS4:XB1 sales difference was a 15% difference in favour of XB1, with the variable introduced that month being the Minecraft bundle.
What that seems to imply is that quantitatively, Gears/BF1 launch + respective bundles added to the equation an additional 15% variance, driven by a combination of new hardware SKU launches, a big tentpole exclusive and a big marketing-associated 3rd-party game release driving.
This month the lustre of month-one spiked Gears/BF1's launches + bundle SKUs should had gone down. I imagine that if this wasn't a holiday season but instead a quieter sales window the 30% sales difference would had dropped to around 20-ish %.
Honestly I find the November numbers hard to predict.
My personal guess was that Pro will make up 30-35% of all PS4s sold this November, while PS4 would had maintained whatever it was going to sell approximately.
However, I also assumed going into this November that we would had seen a CoD/WD2 bundle released during the respective game's launch to broaden the PS4 SKU lineup, but nope. Instead we're going into the holiday season with Pro + UC4 Slim.
UC4 Slim continues to show that it can sell well despite not having a lot of the same value that the XB1S bundles have ( more games, newer games at same price), but it doesn't change the fact that it alone can't sell more than the aggregation of all XB1Ss.
I'd give PS4 a 50:50 chance for November. Even if PS4 beats XB1, I don't think it'll be by a whole lot due to the fact that PS4's SKU mix is not very broad.
Bitch Pudding
Member
While PS4 Pro numbers won't be anywhere near OG PS4 launch numbers, I predict that it alone will match XBOX One S in November.
Obliterator
Member
Gears 4 is not going to be anywhere near that, that's for sure. How was Judgement? Under 1 million wasn't it?
There is almost a 0% chance that happens
Yea I am thinking even if we are generous with digital numbers for gears and say 50% I believe it will be down by a lot
Is there a COD IW PS4 slim bunduru for this month? Haven't heard nary a peep about that.
If there is, my assumption is that bundle and PS4 Pro launch should help Sony as take Nov
Impressive numbers for BF1.
I would've thought the bundle number with XB1 S would be higher than 42k however.
Still a fantastic title for MS to market exclusively.
If there is, my assumption is that bundle and PS4 Pro launch should help Sony as take Nov
Impressive numbers for BF1.
I would've thought the bundle number with XB1 S would be higher than 42k however.
Still a fantastic title for MS to market exclusively.
Nightengale
Member
OG PS4 launch numbers < Xbox One peak November sales.
Nightengale
Member
OléGunner;225173427 said:
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare + Modern Warfare PS4 bundle is available in UK, Europe, Southeast Asia, and some countries that isn't US/Canada.
The theory proposed by some (like Welfare) is that Sony is holding off any third-party bundles till post-Black Friday (December), as Sony feel Pro + Slim UC4 are sufficient as the tip of the spear for the US market for November.
Whether or not that strategy is the right one. Well, we should find out next month or in the next week when I hear anecdotal numbers of BF movement.
So XB1 selling less than 1m in November? What?
I personally don't see the appeal of the Pro. Nor the Slim especially in comparison to the XB1S and its plethora of strong (BF1/MineCraft/Gears) bundle options. It's shelf space in our Best Buy has reached impressive levels. Even if PS4 does come out on top, I doubt it'll be by much.
Welfare
Member
Who said the slim was selling well? We know the slim sold 17% of all consoles, which is a pretty small amount since we know PS4+XB1 is 564k, and Wii U, PS3, and 360 would be selling very little (low 10,000's each). If 17% includes handhelds, we have an estimate for 3DS at 123k, and to be generous, we'll say Vita sold 10k.
So 564k + 123k + ~60k (assuming Wii U, PS3, and 360 sold ~20k each) +10k = 757k * 0.17 = 129k
That is only 55% of total PS4 sales. XB1S in August sold >150k, PS4 slim can't even hit that in month 2. Even being generous and assuming the Wii U, PS3, and 360 sold ~30k each:
564k + 123k + ~90k (assuming Wii U, PS3, and 360 sold ~30k each) +10k = 787k * 0.17 = 134k
Still a low amount.
Literally 0% chance of happening. XB1S is going to sell at least 1m this November. Pro would be lucky to hit even half of the XB1S.
Obliterator
Member
Yep indeed though with digital I think it could he over it. I think Gears is between 400 and 500k in NPD
Nightengale
Member
I'm proven wrong. It's a good reminder I shouldn't say things anecdotally without number-checking. Thanks for the numbers.
I don't know what's happen but Microsoft is having a hard time with first-party games.
Hmm curious strategy. Kind of bizarre that Sony would wait until the 25th of Nov to unleash their well known trump card.
Then again, it's been a hectic few months with PSVR and Pro launches.
I know the majority of November and Xmas shopping will be done this weekend but it's not a lot of time to promo a potential COD bundle especially as the game is already out.
Anyway at least they are doing that bundle beyond US borders otherwise I'd be truly puzzled.
Halo and gears are just getting old, some fans have grown up and moved on.
Grown up, as in adult life hit them hard not that games are for kids.
Nightengale
Member
By its 4th or 5th iteration for most games (exceptions apply, like sports, Lego, etc), I think fatigue or familiarity will settle in unless the sequel has a "hook" that can excite the fanbase and reinvigorate the IP.
But beyond that. "that hook" must also be marketed very well. Audience needs to feel the element of newness and exciting that will compel their interest.
Battlefield 1 has the WW1 factor which has made BF feel really fresh even if it's just a nice coat of paint on the BF formula.
Uncharted 4 has the whole "one last time"/"will Drake die?"/"final game in saga" hook on top of other sequel improvement factors that has a strong pull.
But beyond that. "that hook" must also be marketed very well. Audience needs to feel the element of newness and exciting that will compel their interest.
Battlefield 1 has the WW1 factor which has made BF feel really fresh even if it's just a nice coat of paint on the BF formula.
Uncharted 4 has the whole "one last time"/"will Drake die?"/"final game in saga" hook on top of other sequel improvement factors that has a strong pull.
Welfare
Member
You are welcome. Really, if they didn't give that 17% number I would have thought the slim was doing much better but in reality it isn't moving the needle. It is probably only selling as well as it is because it is the marketed bundle.
The consumers that would have bought Halo 5 and Gears 4 have either moved on to other game like Destiny and CoD or have a PS4. Both really benefited from the casual buyer.
Also you could argue Halo was already going down since Halo 3.
Halo 3: 3.3M / 12 days in NPD = 275,000 a day (September)
Reach: 3.3M / 19 days in NPD = 173,684 a day (September)
Halo 4: 3.2M / 19 days in NPD = 168,421 a day (November)
Obliterator
Member
I think this is part of it but also
Remember the last installment of Gears nearly killed the entire franchise. Judgement was so poorly received by the fan base that even Epic had no plans on working on the franchise after that released. I think its a combo of the franchise being older, and also people hesitant on if it would be any good or not.
Halo 5 had a somewhat similar situation where Halo 4 was pretty poorly received as well. Also a not small number of 360 owners don't own Xbox One's. A lot of them own PS4's now instead. That is certainly a factor
Series fatigue is a more likely cause. God of War Ascension and Gears of War Judgement were both in similar situations. Both were underselling prequels that weren't as good as their previous titles which were sales monsters. MS decided that Gears should remain Gears which resulted in a collective "okay..." whereas Sony has the next God of War be a completely different thing which garnered a lot of attention as evidenced by its E3 showing.
Welfare
Member
Gears 4 remaining "Gears" was the best decision as Judgement was poorly received as a multiplayer title and the first true Gears game since then needed to be familiar. We already know what happens when a new studio goes wild on a sequel that has very little in common with the previous games (Halo 4). God of War can get away with it since it is a single player experience.
With Halo 5 being true to form and more highly regarded as 343 "getting Halo right" while still adding in plenty of core mechanics changes, it should bode well for Gears 5 now that Coalition has proven they have the Gears formula mastered.
I don't really see why God of War can get away with being different just because it's an SP game. There have been many SP games that were criticized for switching up the formula too much with DmC and RE being notable ones. I don't blame MS for wanting to take the safe route but that could very well be why they aren't doing as well as they could.
Well God of war ascension was poorly received, yet I think the new God of war could be the best selling entry. Personally I believe uncharted 3 left a lot of fans disappointed even though it fared well critically but uncharted 4 doesn't seem to have been affected. I just feel once you go past a 3rd entry, you need to really amaze people or change things up to get fans rejuvenated for a new set of games. More of the same will only bring back your hardcore fans.
ALSO to be fair we don't know how the new God of war will perform. I don't really use YouTube views as a barometer for sales. We don't really know if it will also be down, but to be fair it didnr hot the highs of a halo or gears of war so maybe it won't be affected that much overall
Jarod McChicken
Member
If I'm not mistaken, Xbox One reduced the gap by 266,100 units since July, meaning the total difference is now something like 1,49 million.
You don't see the appeal of a much more powerful console for $100 more? It's pretty obvious what the appeal is.
I'm not convinced of this. During a normal sales month maybe. With Black Friday deals and awesome deals on the OG xbone I wouldn't be surprised to see a MS win. In fact I predict that MS will take Nov and Dec. They have the momentum. Who would have thought at the start of the year that MS would take NPD for 6+ months. Crazy great time to be a consumer.
I think that's why we're not seeing aggressive black friday deals for the ps4 - to keep the "just $100 more" perception for the pro during that shopping period. I imagine after those sales are done with, the base ps4 will get some more aggressive deals, either in december or early next year.