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[Chû Totoro]

You could have saved a lot of time saying:

You guys presented well supported data and projected figures that match that data I'm going to just contest it by disagreeing and making some stuff up.

Actually you're 100% right. My point was clearly to prove that even if you have a lot of things on which you can rely your point that doesn't prevent it to being a supposition. Of course it has more chance to occurs when you assume things with a constructive and well made reflection but it's still not guarantee to happen.

Wii U could surpass GC sales or it couldn't. Of course when I read Amirox's posts I'm going to say that it seems like it's not possible. But like I also said when you have a different vision of gaming the way you see things differ (some will say bias but I think Marc^o^ don't say things like "they're going to sell more because it's Nintendo" but rather "the momentum they manage to create with Mario Kart 8 is going to be even stronger in the next months / years").

Chu, are you arguing that because we cannot "prove" projections (in that the truth only becomes known with absolute certainty later), that therefore all projections are equally rational?

A Meteorologist uses the most advanced scientific instruments we have available to make a projection that today it will be 85 degrees, while another person does an interpretive dance and decides it will be 25 degrees, and you treat these projections equally?

The preponderance of historical data suggests that the Wii U will not recover meaningfully in terms of units sold. It might make a profit for Nintendo -- that's entirely possible, given Nintendo's frugality -- but it's extremely unlikely to go on to sell 30M+ units because history tells us that consoles which start the way the Wii U has sell closer to 5-15 million, not 20 or 30 or 40 million.

Could it possibly break out of this projection? Could the Wii U buck historical trends? Sure, of course, it's possible. It's a very low probability chance, but it's possible. Based on the evidence we have available to us right now, the likely outcome for the Wii U is 10-15M lifetime units sold.

You now have in one post Amirox's and Marc^o^'s opinions

That's what I was trying to say. It's good to discuss and to try to make a point but sometimes just to acknowledge that both opinions can co-exist without making the world explode.

Of course in a forum the main thing is to discuss but I learned (the hard ban way) that sometimes it's just useless to try again and again to convince someone. Just be happy that he's at least understood and respect your point of view.

I posted this because Amirox and Marc^o^are both posters I like. When I see people who are always making console warz posts I just let them and laugh a little while before thread closure.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

You now have in one post Amirox's and Marc^o^'s opinions

That's what I was trying to say. It's good to discuss and to try to make a point but sometimes just to acknowledge that both opinions can co-exist without making the world explode.

Of course in a forum the main thing is to discuss but I learned (the hard ban way) that sometimes it's just useless to try again and again to convince someone. Just be happy that he's at least understood and respect your point of view.

I posted this because Amirox and Marc^o^are both posters I like. When I see people who are always making console warz posts I just let them and laugh a little while before thread closure.

Sorry, but I can't put on the same level, Ami opinions which is based on past and actual data and other case of this industry during more than 30 years and Marc, which are made of fluffy clouds of ilusion and wild theories.

 

[Wickerbasket]

Sorry, but I can't put on the same level, Ami opinions which is based on past and actual data and other case of this industry during more than 30 years and Marc, which are made of fluffy clouds of ilusion and wild theories.

Yeah, I enjoy reading Amir0x's posts because he usually backs up his sales predictions with data.

Marc, on the other hand, just seems super optimistic about everything Nintendo, and seems to pull his sales predictions out of thin air.

I've no idea why anyone would claims a sales recovery based off of one month of sales; poor console sales, might I add, in a month where it's biggest game released. It's went from selling complete shit to shit, and will probably go back down to selling complete shit next month.

 

[Chû Totoro]

Sorry, but I can't put on the same level, Ami opinions which is based on past and actual data and other case of this industry during more than 30 years and Marc, which are made of fluffy clouds of ilusion and wild theories.

Yeah but if it's "made of fluffy clouds of illusion and wild theories" why trying that hard to dismiss his posts? Maybe he's part of the ones who want "to believe"

I personally think it's really optimistic (and since it's based on the success of games not even released it's clearly just suppositions) but it wouldn't surprise me that much to see a major boost from sept to jan for Wii U.
We don't even know what Amiibo could do.

I'm not here to have a discussion around sales. I'm always reading NPD or MC sales threads but I almost never post because I don't know anything concrete to make a post people could read and say "yeah, this guy really know what is going to happen during the next 2 years".

Like I said, the way the discussion was heading just seemed stupid to me and not constructive at all. Maybe I shouldn't have answered Amirox but Marc^o^'s post.

 

[theprodigy]

Yeah but if it's "made of fluffy clouds of illusion and wild theories" why trying that hard to dismiss his posts? Maybe he's part of the ones who want "to believe"

I personally think it's really optimistic (and since it's based on the success of games not even released it's clearly just suppositions) but it wouldn't surprise me that much to see a major boost from sept to jan for Wii U.
We don't even know what Amiibo could do.

I'm not here to have a discussion around sales. I'm always reading NPD or MC sales threads but I almost never post because I don't know anything concrete to make a post people could read and say "yeah, this guy really know what is going to happen during the next 2 years".

Like I said, the way the discussion was heading just seemed stupid to me and not constructive at all. Maybe I shouldn't have answered Amirox but Marc^o^'s post.

If you don't want to discuss sales in a sales topic, you are more than welcome to leave.

 

[Chû Totoro]

If you don't want to discuss sales in a sales topic, you are more than welcome to leave.

Then I go back to my "sales thread reader only" status.

 

[Tripon]

Have creamsugar arrived yet? Have we gotten updates to LTD numbers for some games, such as Bravely Default, Kirby Triple Deluxe, Titanfall, etc?

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Have creamsugar arrived yet? Have we gotten updates to LTD numbers for some games, such as Bravely Default, Kirby Triple Deluxe, Titanfall, etc?

Yes he posted it. Check his post history.

 

[Tripon]

Yes he posted it. Check his post history.

Okay, thanks.

 

[Narpas Sword0]

The lead the GCN has built up launch aligned is roughly 1.75M, including the slight reduction in that lead this last NPD month.

The only way for it to outsell the GCN going forward, assuming something like a 60 month cycle, is for it to consistently outsell the GCN in launch aligned months by about 45K for the remainder.

I.e. the rest of this year's sales would need to look something like:
July - 170K
August - 145K
September - 210K
October - 300K
November - 800K
December 1.2M

I.e. in the next six months it would need to more than double its current lifetime sales.

mark^o^ respond to this plz thx

 

[BananaSprinkles]

Have creamsugar arrived yet? Have we gotten updates to LTD numbers for some games, such as Bravely Default, Kirby Triple Deluxe, Titanfall, etc?

If, while on the front page of this forum, you click on the number of replies for a thread (in this image, 3,968), it will show you everybody who posted.

You can then control + f to find their name. If you then click on the number to the right of their name (in this image, 6), it will show you all of their posts in that thread.

 

[Tripon]

If, while on the front page of this forum, you click on the number of replies for a thread (in this image, 3,968), it will show you everybody who posted.



You can then control + f to find their name. If you then click on the number to the right of their name (in this image, 6), it will show you all of their posts in that thread.

Ah! I never knew that. Thank you for showing me that.

 

[V_Arnold]

Chu, are you arguing that because we cannot "prove" projections (in that the truth only becomes known with absolute certainty later), that therefore all projections are equally rational?

A Meteorologist uses the most advanced scientific instruments we have available to make a projection that today it will be 85 degrees, while another person does an interpretive dance and decides it will be 25 degrees, and you treat these projections equally?

The preponderance of historical data suggests that the Wii U will not recover meaningfully in terms of units sold. It might make a profit for Nintendo -- that's entirely possible, given Nintendo's frugality -- but it's extremely unlikely to go on to sell 30M+ units because history tells us that consoles which start the way the Wii U has sell closer to 5-15 million, not 20 or 30 or 40 million.

Could it possibly break out of this projection? Could the Wii U buck historical trends? Sure, of course, it's possible. It's a very low probability chance, but it's possible. Based on the evidence we have available to us right now, the likely outcome for the Wii U is 10-15M lifetime units sold.

I feel like I am arguing with giants here because I am insignificant as far as statistics come, but this particular case (the Wii U's) is not exactly something that *can* be predicted reasonably. If there is anything history told us about console performances, it is that you do not always have all the variables you need to judge a console. 360's sales were wildly misprojected during its early years, and it surpassed most predictions, however reasonable those predictions seemed back then. Same goes for PS3. Dreamcast actually has higher sales with aligned launch dates, but it seems reasonable to assume that Wii U wont have a plug pulled situation hittign it in a few months.

Predictions are awesome in many cases, and it can predict stable situations easily, but you cant predict turnarounds in a stable manner, and you cant predict sudden dooms that come from unexpected situations either. With Wii U's case, most casual observers (no harm intended with casual) just want to be done with the system and mark it as failure, and anything that goes against that observation will be a too complex argument to sit through.

I would argue that Wii U will see an upwards momentum next year IF everything goes as planned for Nintendo (Kart keeps on rolling west, Japan gets better after the Hyrule->Bayonetta 2->Smash combo, etc), then the final 2~ years of Wii U will be better than GC's final years were, both in terms of support and in terms of sales. Might be a wild prediction.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Did we ever get a breakdown of how many Wii u units were bundles? Or how many bundles were shipped this month?

I wonder if there's enough out there to keep the July NPD over 100K

 

[Isleofsancroy]

So MS report is Tuesday right? What are the predictions? Think they sold 6 millions yet or more.

 

[BananaSprinkles]

So MS report is Tuesday right? What are the predictions? Think they sold 6 millions yet or more.

They may have shipped 6 million, but I find it nearly impossible that 6 million have been sold to consumers.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So ehm, let's do the math.

You say, it needs constant monthly sales in the range of 150k, right?

It would need consistent non-holiday months of greater than 150K to sell as much or more than the GCN in the US. I think this is pointed out in the brackets in Amirox's post.

The GCN wasn't selling 100K during holiday months either. In its third Nov-Dec period it sold around 1.9M. In its fourth ~1.2M. These are numbers to match to simply stop falling further behind the GCN not to catch up to it, because launch aligned the GCN has outperformed the Wii U every NPD tracking period bar this one and thus the Wii U would first need to claw back at a 1.7M lead.

 

[theprodigy]

ok, hold up, can someone provide me with NPD's LTD for the Nintendo 64 and Xbox (I assume Gamecube and 360 are 11.7m and 41.5m respectively, correct me if I'm wrong)

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Looking at that old NPD data is fascinating. I actually don't see it as possible for the WiiU to catch the gamecube in the short term. I think right now price is the WiiUs biggest issue. When you look at the actual price of the gamecube during its first 3 years it's literally impulse buy territory. If the WiiU stands any chance of catching the cube it is going to be in the back end years and has to really hope that in its 3rd year it's in the $200 range. However Nintendo will have already played all its major cards by then. I dunno what they can actually do. Gamecube had some pretty decent Nov-Dec seasons. The WiiU launch aligned has zero chance matching them just due to price. 2003 nov-dec was around 1.9 million as the cube was $100 due to the price cut. Does anyone see WiiU doing that with it's current trajectory and price? I see them adding 1.3 million at best (they'll have a better holiday this year and last year they added like 850-900k). Just looking at this old data I feel like the price of Nintendo's system is the biggest issue right now. I don't think they can launch hardware for over $250.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

I feel like I am arguing with giants here because I am insignificant as far as statistics come, but this particular case (the Wii U's) is not exactly something that *can* be predicted reasonably. If there is anything history told us about console performances, it is that you do not always have all the variables you need to judge a console. 360's sales were wildly misprojected during its early years, and it surpassed most predictions, however reasonable those predictions seemed back then. Same goes for PS3. Dreamcast actually has higher sales with aligned launch dates, but it seems reasonable to assume that Wii U wont have a plug pulled situation hittign it in a few months.

Predictions are awesome in many cases, and it can predict stable situations easily, but you cant predict turnarounds in a stable manner, and you cant predict sudden dooms that come from unexpected situations either. With Wii U's case, most casual observers (no harm intended with casual) just want to be done with the system and mark it as failure, and anything that goes against that observation will be a too complex argument to sit through.

I would argue that Wii U will see an upwards momentum next year IF everything goes as planned for Nintendo (Kart keeps on rolling west, Japan gets better after the Hyrule->Bayonetta 2->Smash combo, etc), then the final 2~ years of Wii U will be better than GC's final years were, both in terms of support and in terms of sales. Might be a wild prediction.

Opiate already said unexpected things can happen. But usually predictions made with real data are usually way more accurate.

You talk about PS3 and Xbox 360, but both these consoles were in a much better position than Wii U and both had a more healthier launch than Wii U.

The Wii U has the trajectory of a complete "failure" in terms of sales. You can say that's gonna change, but given the trajectory of other consoles in similar cimcumstances, you can't say a turnaround is gonna happen. Or ypu can say it, but sure is not based in actual data, rather that just faith.

People said that MK8 will keep the baseline much higher, but that didn't happened in Japan, so little reason to think is gonna happen in US is a several more orders of magnitude. Same with the examples you used in the Japanese case, the warriors and bayonetta IP aren't big enough to put the console in the success path or to significantly raise the sales, is almost delusional, we talking about games than sell like 200K at much....

See, you can make wild theories, but at least they should make a bit of sense....

 

[ZSaberLink]

Wait, but I though we didn't get any numbers from cream about those titles o.o? Except maybe Yoshi.

Abdiel, what have you been seeing for Wii U in Best Buys in July btw? Still MK8 bundle shortages or something? Or has that changed for example?

 

[kingkaiser]

It would need consistent non-holiday months of greater than 150K to sell as much or more than the GCN in the US. I think this is pointed out in the brackets in Amirox's post.

The GCN wasn't selling 100K during holiday months either. In its third Nov-Dec period it sold around 1.9M. In its fourth ~1.2M. These are numbers to match to simply stop falling further behind the GCN not to catch up to it, because launch aligned the GCN has outperformed the Wii U every NPD tracking period bar this one and thus the Wii U would first need to claw back at a 1.7M lead.

Yeah, I forgot the WiiU is already on the market for a year and a half, it only has three and one half years left to catch up the GameCube. In that case 150k a month are spot on...it is not going to make it.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

So ehm, let's do the math.

You say, it needs constant monthly sales in the range of 150k, right?

That would be like 1.8 million sold units a year, over the period of the next (let's say five years) that would be 9 million sold units.

Considering that the Cube sold 12 million units in the US, your estimate seems spot on, but...when you consider that nintendo products typically sell exponentially well during Christmas, I would not exclude the possibility that Nintendo could manage to sell like 1 million units during every upcoming November and December, in the next five years.

To meet your set goal of 1.8 million sold units a year, that would left 800k units to be sold during the remaining 10 months, every year, which would be constant 80k units every month.

Well, considering the upcoming line-up of games, I would say that these numbers (80k a month) are quite reachable.

Yes lets do the math. Your maths is missing a massive factor: the decline of sales through a systems life cycle.

GC sold 11.578 million in the USA:

2001.|....1.236.000|
2002.|....2.345.000|
2003.|....3.281.000|
2004.|....2.305.000|
2005.|....1.695.000|
2006.|.......542.000|
2007.|.......104.000|

WiiU has sold 2.5 million so far:

2012.|......885.000|
2013.|....1.164.500|
2014.|......450.500| (so far)

So far the WiiU sales are very much like GC's in terms of their gradient except notably lower on the graph.
Furthermore, 2014 will most likely be WiiU's peak year due to the release of MK and Smash. Looking at those sales trends I think its clear that the WiiU has no chance in passing the GCN in America.

For WiiU to reach GCN's peak year (this year) of 3.28 million it would need to sell 457.5k a month till November and December where it would then need to put up 1 million across both months.

I think we can all see how ridiculous that is. But what about one of GCN's lesser years? Can WiiU reach 2.3 million like GC did twice?

Well assuming WiiU has an exceptional holiday of 1 million across Nov+Dec it would then have to sell 212.5k a month for the rest of this year.

I hope its clear now why WiiU catching up to GC is pretty much impossible.

 

[veritassin]

So in light of all of this discussion should nintendo go third party? I know I'll probably get crucified for posing this question but it is just a hypothetical not saying that they will. Personally I think they could be extremely successul as just a software developer.

 

[rpmurphy]

My Wal-Mart had like one tiny little bottom shelf left for like three rows of Vita games, and one was like Uncharted and another was, um, some Collection of games and the other was, like, a PS Vita Memory Card lol

I think it varies based on location. Not all stores are carrying it; I've seen some that do and some that have removed the Vita section entirely.

I see, thanks. Guess my store just didn't want to start off with the inventory, which is kinda sad but not surprising anymore.

 

[GamerJM]

I honestly kind of feel bad for marc^o^ seeing him get ganged up on here but his predictions are still completely outrageous.

 

[Jinfash]

The lead the GCN has built up launch aligned is roughly 1.75M, including the slight reduction in that lead this last NPD month.

The only way for it to outsell the GCN going forward, assuming something like a 60 month cycle, is for it to consistently outsell the GCN in launch aligned months by about 45K for the remainder.

I.e. the rest of this year's sales would need to look something like:
July - 170K
August - 145K
September - 210K
October - 300K
November - 800K
December 1.2M

I.e. in the next six months it would need to more than double its current lifetime sales.

Thank you for this. This easily outlines the roadmap the Wii U must follow to avoid being Nintendo's lowest selling console, VB notwithstanding.

 

[Petrae]

I see, thanks. Guess my store just didn't want to start off with the inventory, which is kinda sad but not surprising anymore.

It's understandable. A retailer buys its inventory with the expectation that it will sell and make the money spent back (plus markup in many cases). If an item doesn't sell-- such as our unwanted friend Vita, for example-- it's a case of wasted money and shelf space. It doesn't make sense to (re)order these items.

In the case of specialty retail, like GameStop or Best Buy, there's a better chance (though still not great) that Vita will move because of the more focused customer demographic (gaming/electronic focus). Meanwhile, at more general retail like Walmart and Target, there's less interest and less of a chance that Vita sells.

 

[V_Arnold]

Opiate already said unexpected things can happen. But usually predictions made with real data are usually way more accurate.

You talk about PS3 and Xbox 360, but both these consoles were in a much better position than Wii U and both had a more healthier launch than Wii U.

I do not talk about PS3 and 360 in the context of Wii U. I talk about the fact that they did have unexpectedly healthy 3rd,4th,5th, etc years, that put them much, much higher than any "normal" prediction would have guess at year 1/2.

The Wii U has the trajectory of a complete "failure" in terms of sales. You can say that's gonna change, but given the trajectory of other consoles in similar cimcumstances, you can't say a turnaround is gonna happen. Or ypu can say it, but sure is not based in actual data, rather that just faith.

People said that MK8 will keep the baseline much higher, but that didn't happened in Japan, so little reason to think is gonna happen in US is a several more orders of magnitude. Same with the examples you used in the Japanese case, the warriors and bayonetta IP aren't big enough to put the console in the success path or to significantly raise the sales, is almost delusional, we talking about games than sell like 200K at much....

See, you can make wild theories, but at least they should make a bit of sense....

Nintendo not treating Wii U as a failure is what changes this picture. If you go to Media Create, people argue whether we can talk about a new baseline yet or no, and it is usually "not yet". If the narrative fits, its amazing to think of it as "did not change" as opposed to "we do not know yet".

Which is my basic point in this. With Nintendo clearly not treating Wii U as a failure, and shows signs of full support going in 2015, I think that variable is not yet calculated into the Wii U's potential in its next years. See? I am not making random shit up, I am not wishing that Smash will sell 1 mill consoles per region. I am just saying that it is not entirely unreasonable to assume that Wii U will have a different trajectory in its next 1-2 years than most pessimistic predictions would have it go. It might still not catch GC's 25~ mill, but I would wager that it will end up closer to GC's numbers when it is all said and done as opposed to DC's numbers.

 

[theprodigy]

Except we can: Wii U has failed to establish a new (notably improved) baseline in Japan.

(more importantly, Gamecube was never a point of comparison there)

 

[StevieP]

So in light of all of this discussion should nintendo go third party? I know I'll probably get crucified for posing this question but it is just a hypothetical not saying that they will. Personally I think they could be extremely successul as just a software developer.

If you want to have that discussion - all the current console manufacturers would be more successful if they released their software on open platforms such as PC rather than stick o the outdated model they currently use. Yes that includes sony.

 

[kingkaiser]

So in light of all of this discussion should nintendo go third party? I know I'll probably get crucified for posing this question but it is just a hypothetical not saying that they will. Personally I think they could be extremely successul as just a software developer.

Well, this
analysis of Nintendos financials from a fellow Gaffer, shows pretty well why the hardware busines is still an integral part of Nintendos revenue.

In my opinion, going third party would only be lucrative for Nintendo if they did not have to pay royalties to anyone and some of their costs (marketing for example) were taken over, which is very unlikely to happen.

 

[veritassin]

If you want to have that discussion - all the current console manufacturers would be more successful if they released their software on open platforms such as PC rather than stick o the outdated model they currently use. Yes that includes sony.

I'm sure they would, but it seems to me that Nintendo is really between a rock and a hard place here.

Well, this
analysis of Nintendos financials from a fellow Gaffer, shows pretty well why the hardware busines is still an integral part of Nintendos revenue.

In my opinion, going third party would only be lucrative for Nintendo if they did not have to pay royalties to anyone and some of their costs (marketing for example) were taken over, which is very unlikely to happen.

How much are those royalties in comparison to hardware R+D and manufacturing etc.? Wouldn't selling potentially much more software outweigh the royalties they would pay plus the fact they no longer have to sink a ton of money into that manufacturing and R+D?

 

[Tripon]

Except we can: Wii U has failed to establish a new (notably improved) baseline in Japan.

(more importantly, Gamecube was never a point of comparison there)

Good thing we're in a NPD thread and not a Media Create thread.

 

[theprodigy]

Good thing we're in a NPD thread and not a Media Create thread.

In response to the guy above me talking about Media Create, because screw partial quoting on mobile.

 

[ProfessorMoran]

I do not talk about PS3 and 360 in the context of Wii U. I talk about the fact that they did have unexpectedly healthy 3rd,4th,5th, etc years, that put them much, much higher than any "normal" prediction would have guess at year 1/2.



Nintendo not treating Wii U as a failure is what changes this picture. If you go to Media Create, people argue whether we can talk about a new baseline yet or no, and it is usually "not yet". If the narrative fits, its amazing to think of it as "did not change" as opposed to "we do not know yet".

Which is my basic point in this. With Nintendo clearly not treating Wii U as a failure, and shows signs of full support going in 2015, I think that variable is not yet calculated into the Wii U's potential in its next years. See? I am not making random shit up, I am not wishing that Smash will sell 1 mill consoles per region. I am just saying that it is not entirely unreasonable to assume that Wii U will have a different trajectory in its next 1-2 years than most pessimistic predictions would have it go. It might still not catch GC's 25~ mill, but I would wager that it will end up closer to GC's numbers when it is all said and done as opposed to DC's numbers.

What would Nintendo do with Smash and Zelda in development for the wiiU if they do deem it as a failure? Not release them? Scrap YEARS of development and wait for the next platform? These decisions were made a long time ago and the software WILL sell regardless of whether they can sustain wiiU hardware sales.

The bottom line is third party support is dismal and that ain't changing anytime soon, and without the motion control phenomenon like the Wii did it's hard to imagine the long term viability of the platform when there isn't any substantial change to Nintendo's strategy to the platform, basically it seems they're basically hunkering down and are content with riding out this gen, they will never announce the wiiU as a failure obviously, IF they're serious about turning the wiiU's fortunes around, there needs to be a clear and comprehensive strategy.

 

[metalslimer]

The Wii will be essentially dead by 2016 so I dont really see where the delusion of it outselling the gc is coming from. It also strikes me as crazy that a result like that could be celebrated. All these predictions also fail to realize that the big software for ps4/one has yet to be released while nintendo has pretty much blown their load in terms of huge releases. The only one left is smash.

 

[Doc Evils]

So MS report is Tuesday right? What are the predictions? Think they sold 6 millions yet or more.

Sony could release their data just before MS to tick them off.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

The Wii will be essentially dead by 2016 so I dont really see where the delusion of it outselling the gc is coming from. It also strikes me as crazy that a result like that could be celebrated. All these predictions also fail to realize that the big software for ps4/one has yet to be released while nintendo has pretty much blown their load in terms of huge releases. The only one left is smash.

When your the WiiU even the smallest of tasks is a massive mountain to climb.

Nintendo recognise this with their forecasts. They should ( I think they are) try and achieve some kind of profits from the machine and maintain some good will with their current user base.

 

[kingkaiser]

How much are those royalties in comparison to hardware R+D and manufacturing etc.?

You can not compare those costs because hardware and software business are two different things.

Wouldn't selling potentially much more software outweigh the royalties they would pay plus the fact they no longer have to sink a ton of money into that manufacturing and R+D?

How about reading the initial Thread I linked? There is a very good estimation there about how many more software Nintendo would have to sell to outweigh the lost income in hardware sales...

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

What would Nintendo do with Smash and Zelda in development for the wiiU if they do deem it as a failure? Not release them? Scrap YEARS of development and wait for the next platform?

Make them cross platform with 3DS, apparently...

 

[metalslimer]

Make them cross platform with 3DS, apparently...

You know if Zelda gets pushed to 2016 it would be interesting if it was cross platform as a launch title for the next handheld. It would probably do more good that way anyway.

 

[Tookay]

Nintendo not treating Wii U as a failure is what changes this picture. If you go to Media Create, people argue whether we can talk about a new baseline yet or no, and it is usually "not yet". If the narrative fits, its amazing to think of it as "did not change" as opposed to "we do not know yet".

Which is my basic point in this. With Nintendo clearly not treating Wii U as a failure, and shows signs of full support going in 2015, I think that variable is not yet calculated into the Wii U's potential in its next years. See? I am not making random shit up, I am not wishing that Smash will sell 1 mill consoles per region. I am just saying that it is not entirely unreasonable to assume that Wii U will have a different trajectory in its next 1-2 years than most pessimistic predictions would have it go. It might still not catch GC's 25~ mill, but I would wager that it will end up closer to GC's numbers when it is all said and done as opposed to DC's numbers.

What do you expect from Nintendo? A white flag? A PR statement?

They know that the Wii U is a failure.

But they also know that they have to ride it out or risk burning their faithful.

And, more importantly, they know that prepping a successor system takes a while, so they'll take the hits for the next year or two, while they build that up and find other sources of revenue from existing fans (Amiibo).

 

[veritassin]

You can not compare those costs because hardware and software business are two different things.

They aren't selling anywhere close to wii/ds levels and probably won't with future hardware either.

Is this what you're referring to?

"Just another thing, Nintendo needs to sell 759.319.667 games per year at 5 $ in the App Store to account for the same hardware revenue. And 30 % goes to Apple. (Comparing last fiscal year)"

That's 5 bucks on the app store not 60 bucks on a console or PC. At 60 bucks it would be more like 64 million. Using a 5 dollar app store price point is pretty misleading so is talking about revenue and not actual profit. 64 million per year would still be quite difficult to achieve. Also, that thread says that they operate at a 40% profit ratio on basically all of their hardware so that 64 million number would be even further reduced to 25 million or rounding up to 26 million.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

Thank you for this. This easily outlines the roadmap the Wii U must follow to avoid being Nintendo's lowest selling console, VB notwithstanding.

VB is a "handheld" anyway.

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

VB is a "handheld" anyway.

No it isn't, have you ever used one?

 

[Isleofsancroy]

No it isn't, have you ever used one?

Doesn't matter what you think that was what it was marketed as. Technically, it is mobile and can be moved easier than a console.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Except we can: Wii U has failed to establish a new (notably improved) baseline in Japan.

Well if we expect Japanese sales trends to be identical to NPDs, you presumably expect PS4 sales to continue falling off a cliff and to start selling less than the WiiU does month by month.

 

[Disaster Nebraska]

Usually game console brands peak and then die out. Consider SEGA, who crushed it with the Genesis/MD for a while but every subsequent console was a failure. Atari's biggest hit was the 2600 but everything flopped after that. Nintendo peaked with NES, gradually declined from SNES to GC, and then peaked again with Wii. Sony crushed it with the PS1 and PS2, but stumbled hard with the PS3.

I guess the question is: if you've been top-dog before, does it put you in a position to defy the trends set during the first year or two of your console's life? Only a few consoles did that, but they were also follow-ups to highly successful brands. SNES eventually beat the Genesis/MD but not without some serious effort. PS3 eventually beat 360 but still was way behind PS1/PS2. Speaking of PS3, the first two years were the lowest in sales. Yearly sales kept going up and up after that, and I don't recall any supply constraints. 360 was the Genesis of our time: enjoyed success for quite a while but eventually got beat close to the finish line.

I often hear the (frankly, idiotic) comparison that "PS3 recovered! Why can't Xbox One?" Well, I think a far more reasonable comparison would be "PS3 recovered and yearly sales continued to increase. Why can't Wii U?" Nintendo has obviously had success before. They're also done just fine with consoles that sold terribly. And they've also brought consoles back from the brink of defeat (SNES, 3DS). They have several hard years ahead and they need to open up the floodgates now to keep momentum moving, but surpassing the GC could be done.

 

[Isleofsancroy]

Your theory is incorrect. Not only that, ps3 beat the 360?

Usually game console brands peak and then die out. Consider SEGA, who crushed it with the Genesis/MD for a while but every subsequent console was a failure. Atari's biggest hit was the 2600 but everything flopped after that. Nintendo peaked with NES, gradually declined from SNES to GC, and then peaked again with Wii. Sony crushed it with the PS1 and PS2, but stumbled hard with the PS3.

I guess the question is: if you've been top-dog before, does it put you in a position to defy the trends set during the first year or two of your console's life? Only a few consoles did that, but they were also follow-ups to highly successful brands. SNES eventually beat the Genesis/MD but not without some serious effort. PS3 eventually beat 360 but still was way behind PS1/PS2. Speaking of PS3, the first two years were the lowest in sales. Yearly sales kept going up and up after that, and I don't recall any supply constraints. 360 was the Genesis of our time: enjoyed success for quite a while but eventually got beat close to the finish line.

I often hear the (frankly, idiotic) comparison that "PS3 recovered! Why can't Xbox One?" Well, I think a far more reasonable comparison would be "PS3 recovered and yearly sales continued to increase. Why can't Wii U?" Nintendo has obviously had success before. They're also done just fine with consoles that sold terribly. And they've also brought consoles back from the brink of defeat (SNES, 3DS). They have several hard years ahead and they need to open up the floodgates now to keep momentum moving, but surpassing the GC could be done.