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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Three

Member
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Naughty_Dog_video_games

Extensive history?

Naughty Dog were platform agnostic developer until ~1994 where they began to "partner" aka accept money from Sony to develop games exclusively for their platform until they were outright purchased in 2001.

So you are saying what Microsoft SHOULD have done here is gone out and moneyhatted a bunch of Activision games for roughly 3-5 years before they were given a free pass to purchase them and then it would have been perfectly ok?
No, don't be daft. Unless you think Math Jam and Keef the thief were akin to Call of Duty, Diablo, Overwatch, or World of warcraft back in the day this isn't equivalent. If MS went on to buy 4J Studios and turned them into the Naughty Dog of today nobody would bat an eye but you know buying Activison and Zenimax are different. You just want to be oblivious to it.
 

xHunter

Member
but gamers benefit a lot more from competition
I mean we have to wait and see if it is really a benefit for gamers.

The last time i witnessed a rise in competition in an entertainment sector, i had to subscribe to 4 different providers just to be able to watch what i used to watch on one provider ( in this case football). Plus i am not paying less.
 

Three

Member
Amy Schumer No GIF by Saturday Night Live
I think I know what your theory is now and I'm not so sure it will happen.
 

Gravemind

Member
except when the 10 year deals run out and they go exclusive

Won't happen.

They only need marketing rights + gamepass day one release in order to boost gamepass sales and keep people subscribed. The most I see them doing is a pre order bonus or a gamepass early access incentive. It all depends on what's in the 10 year deal, assuming Sony even wants to sign it.

They're not taking COD away from playstation. This has all to do with making money to sustain their gamepass strategy, not taking COD away from playstation to sell more hardware.

Believe what you want though. I really dont think this is going to be the doom and gloom that people are predicting.
 

Yoboman

Member
Even when Battlefield was good, it never made a dent in CoD's dominance. I'm just saying.
When was the last really good Battlefield game though? Battlefield 4 in 2013? Essentially 10 years COD has gone unchecked since then

And you can argue that COD really retained the quality advantage through the PS360 era to early last gen. But then there was no real competition for most of last gen for it

Anyhow, my point isn't that something can come and outsell COD. Its that COD will never drop in sales unless there is an alternative for its userbase to flock to
 

Mr Moose

Member
Won't happen.

They only need marketing rights + gamepass day one release in order to boost gamepass sales and keep people subscribed. The most I see them doing is a pre order bonus or a gamepass early access incentive. It all depends on what's in the 10 year deal, assuming Sony even wants to sign it.

They're not taking COD away from playstation. This has all to do with making money to sustain their gamepass strategy, not taking COD away from playstation to sell more hardware.

Believe what you want though. I really dont think this is going to be the doom and gloom that people are predicting.
They literally made Elder Scrolls 6 "exclusive".
 

Gravemind

Member
They literally made Elder Scrolls 6 "exclusive".

Single player games are a different beast imo. Microtransactions and season passes are big money makers for both COD multiplayer and free to play warzone.

Much less to be made off playstation consumers with single player games like Starfield and Elder Scrolls, which are IPs not even close to the cash cow that COD is. Likely more worth it financially to make those games subscription sellers.

I could very well be wrong, but I really don't see them making COD exclusive. I don't think it would make much sense financially.
 

Iced Arcade

Member
I mean we have to wait and see if it is really a benefit for gamers.

The last time i witnessed a rise in competition in an entertainment sector, i had to subscribe to 4 different providers just to be able to watch what i used to watch on one provider ( in this case football). Plus i am not paying less.
- Sonys fumbling of the PS3 launch cause xbox go full stream and take a massive lead in north America which in turn Sony to turn into a beast... gamers benefited.

- xbox's arrogance was disastrous for the launch of the XBO, Sony took advantage of it and had massive gain with the PS4. xbox had to take it's lump, reinvent itself and got them to kill kinect, bulk up its abysmal 1st party studios, launch gamepass.

you could use those instead of reaching for a different industry for examples.
 

Three

Member
- Sonys fumbling of the PS3 launch cause xbox go full stream and take a massive lead in north America which in turn Sony to turn into a beast... gamers benefited.

- xbox's arrogance was disastrous for the launch of the XBO, Sony took advantage of it and had massive gain with the PS4. xbox had to take it's lump, reinvent itself and got them to kill kinect, bulk up its abysmal 1st party studios, launch gamepass.

you could use those instead of reaching for a different industry for examples.
The difference between that gen and now is that when they turned into "a beast" they did so with funding new games like Gears, Uncharted, etc. Today they are turning into "beasts" by market contraction and consolidation so you're not getting anything new, you're just being made to buy multiple things or get multiple subs to get what you were getting before because it's being sliced up. The football analogy he gave.
 
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Iced Arcade

Member
The difference between that gen and now is that when they turned into "a beast" they did so with funding new games like Gears, Uncharted, etc. Today they are turning into "beasts" by market contraction and consolidation so you're not getting anything new, you're just being made to buy multiple things or get multiple subs to get what you were getting before because it's being sliced up. The football analogy he gave.
you don't think Sony will create new if they start to feel tight competition?
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
Xbox was announced a year before Dreamcast was discontinued. It became too crowded for Sega to compete.
Weird retcon. Sega discontinued Dreamcast because they were going broke, not because of a pending threat from Xbox. Dreamcast was losing money from day 1 and the momentum behind PS2 was rapidly pulling players and third party developers over to the PlayStation platform. As good as the Sega arcade ports and first party games were, without solid third party support to bolster sales the platform was finished and Sega Japan pulled the plug. Once the plug was pulled Sega actively sought to partner with Microsoft to release games on Xbox and released several great exclusives on Xbox.
 

Three

Member
you don't think Sony will create new if they start to feel tight competition?
I think both would have created at least some new things regardless. I think overall they were relying on making their existing IPs bigger because of the market contraction.

When your competitor MS decides consolidation of massive IPs instead of creating new is the way to go though I don't think that's necessarily good for new. Once Zenimax was done Sony bought Bungie and the Destiny IP instead of spending that money creating new too. Consolidation isn't about creating new things, its slicing up what's already there.

MS decided this is a good route to take for their business but I'm not so sure it's the best for 'new' or competition. It would have been best if that investment wasn't about chopping up or restricting existing games/IP.
 
Sony can offer a 10-year deal to Microsoft for GTA. I'm sure Microsoft can come up with a GTA competitor in 10 years 😛

I like GTA way more than COD but from a financial standpoint if COD went Xbox exclusive and GTA went Playstation exclusive that would be a massively slanted trade towards Xbox. GTA is a generation defining game every 6-10 years where COD would be the best selling game basically every other year. Obviously would be a massive lose-lose for gamers though
 

Darsxx82

Member
Not a chance. I'll leave the sharing of wacky theories to @SenjutsuSage

I have shame, not everything that pops into my head needs to be said or written down.




Nothing to do with money exchanging hands at all.



barack obama GIF

"The CMA simply acted to give an image of impartiality and independence from Sony in its decision, but it had already decided to block using another reason (cloudgaming?)"

Is correct?😙
 
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Brucey

Member
Eh, I wouldn't count on that, to be honest.

They have used the same arguments as they did with Zenimax, i.e., making COD exclusive will not be financially viable. After a few years, they can decide that it's now financially viable (surprisingly!) so they are making it exclusive now.
They could decide that as soon as the deal gets final approval and everything is signed, just like Bethesda. "We looked at this carefully on a case-by-case basis and it just made sense for us to just embrace PC, Switch and Xbox console gamers..."
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
They could decide that as soon as the deal gets final approval and everything is signed, just like Bethesda. "We looked at this carefully on a case-by-case basis and it just made sense for us to just embrace PC, Switch and Xbox console gamers..."
Yes. Sony does have the COD marketing deal until 2024 or 2025 I think. So nothing will happen before that.

But after that, yes, absolutely possible.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
"The CMA simply acted to give an image of impartiality and independence from Sony in its decision, but it had already decided to block using another reason (cloudgaming?)"

Is correct?
That's how I've read the document too.

Microsoft have every incentive to foreclose with CoD despite a billion dollar loss for at least 5years because they've probably been losing 3 or 4 times that amount for the last 2 decades funding Xbox if they counted the entire balance of losses to gains, so another $5billion is nothing to achieve what they've tried to achieve for years, especially when they could afford an easy $2-3b loss from this deal if it gets blocked.

IMO, the CMA know that Microsoft can and will endure losses to take control of the high end gaming market, but they are forced to only use things they can substantiate by the facts present. Their updated provisional facts don't support a strong argument that the merger creates a SLC in the "console" market. But they state this doesn't resolve the SLC in the cloud space, like you say.
 
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RickMasters

Member
Sony can't allow MS to also acquire EA and Take 2, that would be the end of Sony. At some point Sony will need to take on the crushing debt necessary to at least get one of these publishers. They should really try for EA, since Madden and FIFA are also critically important annual release games for the American market. If they can hold Madden and FIFA for ransom when MS decides to take CoD away from PlayStation, they can at least guarantee mutually assured destruction and that's the best outcome Sony can hope for. As long as MS has Windows and Office, their financial position is invincible. All that Sony can do is threaten Xbox's destruction if MS do go forward with their plan to destroy Sony and monopolize gaming by taking CoD away in 2033.
Is it financially viable for them to do so, though? are they capable of spending upwads of 20Bn on a publisher? are they capable of outbidding MS, or any othe rpotentially interested party? We have so many armchair accountants who insist that they do, But elsewhere it says sony have given the PS division 5BN in spending from now till 2025. Then others are saying they have secretly bought square or already have secretly bought take 2 (both of which just sound bizzare because you cant aquire companies that are worth millions without a single person noticing or reporting on it).


"If they can hold Madden and FIFA for ransom when MS decides to take CoD away from PlayStation, they can at least guarantee mutually assured destruction and that's the best outcome Sony can hope for."


this is Outlandish and pretty far fetched. there is no "mutually assured destruction" when one company (MS) is so much larger than the other (sony) that they could basically aquire playsation if sony was for sale and japanese government permitted it. ...... Thats a bidding war that amounts to a one sided ass whoopin'. There is no world where sony can outbid or out spend MS for aquisitions.
 
Depends if Sony took the 10 year offer from MS. It was offered. Up to them to take it or leave it.
Sony would be fools to not at least take a 10 year offer in this changed situation, but I'm willing to bet that's off the table now. Sony might only have CoD until 2024 or 2025? That's literally next year.

MS are laughing. They got everything they could have possibly wanted from this. They will have the blessing of national governments to crush Sony and monopolize the gaming industry for the rest of time.

I'm still somewhat baffled that they stopped Nvidia from acquiring ARM, but this deal is allowed to sail through like nothing is wrong. Amazing. If I was Jensen Huang I would be fuming right now, Jensen almost had ARM in the palm of his hand and the regulators yanked it away.
 
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Lasha

Member
Sony would be fools to not at least take a 10 year offer in this changed situation, but I'm willing to bet that's off the table now. Sony might only have CoD until 2024 or 2025? That's literally next year.

MS are laughing. They got everything they could have possibly wanted from this. They will have the blessing of national governments to crush Sony and monopolize the gaming industry for the rest of time.

I'm still somewhat baffled that they stopped Nvidia from acquiring ARM, but this deal is allowed to sail through like nothing is wrong. Amazing. If I was Jensen Huang I would be fuming right now, Jensen almost had ARM in the palm of his hand and the regulators yanked it away.

You are baffled because you don't understand either deal well enough to have an informed opinion.
 
You are baffled because you don't understand either deal well enough to have an informed opinion.
Wrong. I understand it better than you do.

Nvidia offered to maintain ARM's independence and fair licensing to everyone in perpetuity as part of their deal. Not 2-3 years. Not 10 years. Perpetuity.

And they still got told to kick rocks by the same regulators who will allow MS to take CoD away from PlayStation anytime in the next 1-10 years.
 

RickMasters

Member
Dooooooooom....
Listen guys, some of you need to put this into perspective. Sony cannot and will not go on anything near as much of an acquisition spree. At best, you can imagine they make a bid for Square Enix or Sega. But I don't even want that, and I'm not sure why anyone would.

Frankly, the same goes for Microsoft (who are actually the desperate ones here). Why anyone thinks that they're going to be able to manage 30+ studios and 2 publishing arms when they're having trouble with their current number, and have had trouble with a number that could be counted on less than 2 hands is beyond me.
They can have square. they have practically been a second partyy sony studio isince the 90s....I wont miss them....but I would hate for snoy to aquire sega as a long time die hard sega fan. They are the last company I would ever want to see aquire sega. I would rather nintnendo aquired them as their games seem a good fit on their consoles...or MS aquite them because after the DC died, the xbox became my new 'dreamcast' (at first, what with panzer dragoon, jet set radio, gun valkerie and sega GT.... it seemed like sega was trying to migrate its fans to xbox at the time, and was one of the key factors in getting the OG xbox along with halo (because it was halo...the first time round!) and PGR...which was basically MSR 2. I still have a massive collection of sega games on xbox, so no....I never want to see sony aquiure sega...as a sega fan.
 

DrFigs

Member
They can have square. they have practically been a second partyy sony studio isince the 90s....I wont miss them....but I would hate for snoy to aquire sega as a long time die hard sega fan. They are the last company I would ever want to see aquire sega. I would rather nintnendo aquired them as their games seem a good fit on their consoles...or MS aquite them because after the DC died, the xbox became my new 'dreamcast' (at first, what with panzer dragoon, jet set radio, gun valkerie and sega GT.... it seemed like sega was trying to migrate its fans to xbox at the time, and was one of the key factors in getting the OG xbox along with halo (because it was halo...the first time round!) and PGR...which was basically MSR 2. I still have a massive collection of sega games on xbox, so no....I never want to see sony aquiure sega...as a sega fan.
🤔
 

Darsxx82

Member
That's how I've read the document too.

Microsoft have every incentive to foreclose with CoD despite a billion dollar loss for at least 5years because they've probably been losing 3 or 4 times that amount for the last 2 decades funding Xbox if they counted the entire balance of losses to gains, so another $5billion is nothing to achieve what they've tried to achieve for years, especially when they could afford an easy $2-3b loss from this deal if it gets blocked.

IMO, the CMA know that Microsoft can and will endure losses to take control of the high end gaming market, but they are forced to only use things they can substantiate by the facts present. Their updated provisional facts don't support a strong argument that the merger creates a SLC in the "console" market. But they state this doesn't resolve the SLC in the cloud space, like you say.

LOL, no, I have not affirmed anything, I was only indicating "" the possible theory of the conspiracy that GHG thinks but is ashamed to affirm in public🤔.

I don't go into theories. I believe that today's events present the situation very favorable to MS .... but that the final approval does not yet exist. We have to keep waiting to have a final answer and close this thread that has been a real roller coaster 🤣
 

Lasha

Member
Wrong. I understand it better than you do.

Nvidia offered to maintain ARM's independence and fair licensing to everyone in perpetuity as part of their deal. Not 2-3 years. Not 10 years. Perpetuity.

And they still got told to kick rocks by the same regulators who will allow MS to take CoD away from PlayStation anytime in the next 1-10 years.

That licensing is your comparison for the two deals says otherwise.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
I'm still somewhat baffled that they stopped Nvidia from acquiring ARM, but this deal is allowed to sail through like nothing is wrong. Amazing. If I was Jensen Huang I would be fuming right now, Jensen almost had ARM in the palm of his hand and the regulators yanked it away.
Questionable acquisitions happen all the time. And MS buying Activision is peanuts compared to other ones.

You got telcom companies combining. The latest one is Rogers buying up Shaw which will finalize any time now. It also took a few years of regulation reviews, but it'll go through.

In Canada, you also got crazy deals. Loblaws bought Shoppers Drug Mart. The biggest grocer bought the biggest drug chain. So what happened after that was Metro bought a French company called Jean Coutu. They are the #3 and #2 grocer and drug chain. And then a giant wholesaler (ya a wholesaler) called McKesson bought Rexall which is the #3 drug chain. Then in response to all of that Sobeys (the #2 grocery chain) bought out a regional grocery chain called Longos. So it all consolidated in 10 years of wheeling and dealing. And it all went through smoothly.
 

DrFigs

Member
Questionable acquisitions happen all the time. And MS buying Activision is peanuts compared to other ones.

You got telcom companies combining. The latest one is Rogers buying up Shaw which will finalize any time now. It also took a few years of regulation reviews, but it'll go through.

In Canada, you also got crazy deals. Loblaws bought Shoppers Drug Mart. The biggest grocer bought the biggest drug chain. So what happened after that was Metro bought a French company called Jean Coutu. They are the #3 and #2 grocer and drug chain. And then a giant wholesaler (ya a wholesaler) called McKesson bought Rexall which is the #3 drug chain. Then in response to all of that Sobeys (the #2 grocery chain) bought out a regional grocery chain called Longos. So it all consolidated in 10 years of wheeling and dealing. And it all went through smoothly.
It's just unfortunate. Even still I don't really think this acquisition was as bad as Facebook/Instagram or Disney/Fox. But it's up there.
 

sainraja

Member
I've always posted here that until the first Sony published Bungie game is announced for multiple platforms, I still believe it will be PS5/PC only. Their wording on the matter has not been any different than 'case by case basis'.
That's not really true, though. You can check what is written on their website. In one of the FAQ questions, Xbox is mentioned by name. If they were to do anything different, it would be a reversal of what they have actually said vs being "iffy" about it or saying it is a case-by-case thing.

The question isn't necessarily will they or won't they... if you are doubtful, the only question really is, what will influence them to do a 180 on what they have clearly stated.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
LOL, no, I have not affirmed anything, I was only indicating "" the possible theory of the conspiracy that GHG thinks but is ashamed to affirm in public🤔.

I don't go into theories. I believe that today's events present the situation very favorable to MS .... but that the final approval does not yet exist. We have to keep waiting to have a final answer and close this thread that has been a real roller coaster 🤣
1.7 On the basis of this evidence, together with the evidence set out in our Provisional Findings, we have now provisionally concluded that the Merger may not be expected to result in a substantial lessening of competition in the market for the supply of console gaming services in the UK. For the avoidance of doubt, nothing in this Addendum represents a change in our Provisional Findings insofar as they relate to cloud gaming services.
 
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