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NPD Sales Results for June 2013 [Up2: 360/3DS Hardware, AC/LM/DK Digital + Retail]

It's trending down for sure, but that's a pretty normal cyclical expectation. The price is a huge factor that can't be ignored. The 3DS still costs more than the DS ever did. Ever. When Nintendo hits the $129 price point, there will most definitely be upward movement on that graph.

This is just some minutia, but OG DS launched at $150 back in 2004.

$150 in 2004 has the equivalent buying power of $185 today.

Currently you can purchase the 3DS for $170 MSRP, so your "the 3DS still costs more than the DS ever did" point can technically be argued if you look at it through a relative (rather than literal) lens.
 

Vanillalite

Ask me about the GAF Notebook
The PS3 is too expensive, but everything is too expensive. We never got to the mass market prices this gen and that's really dumb because it's the only way the dedicated gaming hardware market will expand. People will find a way to buy a smartphone and/or tablet, they won't spend that kind of money on a console.

To a large extent I'd agree. I feel like everything currently out hardware wise could use a price drop. Somethings are more over priced than others though. I just feel like companies are trying to wait the longest amount of time possible to make the $$$ on the current margins vs. growing to a larger install base.

I personally don't think it's the right move at this stage in the game, but that's how it's going. I would think at this stage you'd be pushing for a wide install base to make all of that late adopter $$$ back in game sales.
 

Slayven

Member
The PS3 is too expensive, but everything is too expensive. We never got to the mass market prices this gen and that's really dumb because it's the only way the dedicated gaming hardware market will expand. People will find a way to buy a smartphone and/or tablet, they won't spend that kind of money on a console.

helps that you can get a quality tablet for peanuts nowadays.
 

jcm

Member
They should drop the XL down to $169 and the OG 3DS to $139 this holiday. That plus Pokemon could really boost sales, and having a $139 option would price it under all but the cheapest no name tablets.

They haven't recorded an operating profit since the last 3DS price cut. A half billion dollar price cut isn't going to help them hit their aggressive profit forecast this year.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
Hopefully while summoning a dragon that was left in a ibernation-status for thousands of years.

Seriously, what was that?
First, that was non serious, and I owe you an explanation, alright. Nintendo is a centennial japanese company, that no matter its issues just don't want to die (350K systems sold this June), and is about - just like an old dragon (japan inspired me a dragon, don't ask me why!) - to wake up after a long hibernation (no Wii U release for months) and finally deliver the goods in H2.

So basically, my point was: June was not that bad for Nintendo, and it can only get better in H2.

I just preferred the old dragon analogy XD
 
The 3DS is mostly constrained by its price. For $30 more you can get a Nexus 7 tablet.

If they lower it to $130 it will explode.

I think software prices are the bigger proble. 34.99 should be the absolute max with 29.99 being normal.

And I can't believe people have faith in a vita turnaround in the west. Even in japan where it is doing much better the hardware numbers are not good. Even if you drop vita to 149.99 the market for vita doesn't exist anymore. The power of nintendo ips is saving the 3ds and sony doesn't have oine franchise that can do the same. Ok Vita is not dead but the promise of the systemoriginally is dead
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
If you're looking ahead then you're not concerned about a game or two that will create jumps of positivity in a four year long trend of decline. Short term solutions to long term problems.
A phenomenon game like Pokemon (I'm not even talking about its quality but the impact it has as a long term system seller, just like Monster Hunter in Japan) is not something I consider short term at all. And again, I believe in what I call the virtuous circle. Humans act as sheeps sometimes: we want to be like our friends, share the same things. That's human, a mean to socialize. So the more kids see friends with a 3DS, the more they will want a 3DS. At a certain critical mass level, the virtuous circle starts to act. 3DS is about to reach this point.
 

kswiston

Member
They haven't recorded an operating profit since the last 3DS price cut. A half billion dollar price cut isn't going to help them hit their aggressive profit forecast this year.

Where do you get $500M from? Also, while I don't think we will actually see a price cut, according to your argument, no company would ever bother with them. Increased hardware sales (and more importantly software sales) ideally make up for losses on units that would have sold regardless.
 

jcm

Member
Where do you get $500M from? Also, while I don't think we will actually see a price cut, according to your argument, no company would ever bother with them. Increased hardware sales (and more importantly software sales) ideally make up for losses on units that would have sold regardless.

$30 * 18M units forecast. My argument isn't that no one should ever cut prices. My argument that a company who has declared that current year profit is their #1 priority will not cut prices. The benefits of the price cut show up in the bottom line over the next couple of years, not the next couple of quarters.
 

CrisKre

Member
This is just some minutia, but OG DS launched at $150 back in 2004.

$150 in 2004 has the equivalent buying power of $185 today.

Currently you can purchase the 3DS for $170 MSRP, so your "the 3DS still costs more than the DS ever did" point can technically be argued if you look at it through a relative (rather than literal) lens.

The ds didn't sell as much as the 3ds up until it was lower in price. That's when it blew up. That's his point.
 
This is just some minutia, but OG DS launched at $150 back in 2004.

$150 in 2004 has the equivalent buying power of $185 today.

Currently you can purchase the 3DS for $170 MSRP, so your "the 3DS still costs more than the DS ever did" point can technically be argued if you look at it through a relative (rather than literal) lens.

Always take those figures with a large amount of salt. Prices have gone up since 2004, but have wages? I expect the answer to that question to be all over the place.

Or to put it another way - ask the average consumer in 2004 how much thought they'd put into a $150 purchase. The #1 answer would probably be: not that much.

Ask a consumer today how much thought they'd put into a $170 purchase. The answer would be quite different.
 

neptunes

Member
The HDD requirement is going to bite Sony's ass in the long run.

SCEA still hasn't offered a PS3 SKU with flash storage(as useless as it would be) they would have been able to drop the price even more.

It hasn't quite reached impulse buy yet
 
The ds didn't sell as much as the 3ds up until it was lower in price. That's when it blew up. That's his point.

I wasn't arguing his point. In fact, I agree with it.

I was arguing his "the 3DS still costs more than the DS ever did" claim.


Always take those figures with a large amount of salt. Prices have gone up since 2004, but have wages? I expect the answer to that question to be all over the place.

Or to put it another way - ask the average consumer in 2004 how much thought they'd put into a $150 purchase. The #1 answer would probably be: not that much.

Ask a consumer today how much thought they'd put into a $170 purchase. The answer would be quite different.

Consumer perception is indeed a tricky subject, but wages have gone up overall.

For example, the median household wage in the USA has risen from $44,684 in 2004 to $50,502 in 2011.

Also, the average wage index in the USA rose from 35,648.55 in 2004 to 42,979.61 in 2011.

Does that sufficiently compensate with the relative reduction in buying power for the USA dollar? I'm not sure.

The point I was trying to make is that IT CAN BE ARGUED that 3DS prices are currently "lower" than OG DS launch prices, relatively speaking.
 

kswiston

Member
Consumer perception is indeed a tricky subject, but wages have gone up overall.

I think consumer perception is slow to change for some products. Look at all of the people still complaining about $60 games. Going strictly by inflation totals, full priced games today are about as cheap as they have ever been. However, it doesn't feel that way when you see the sticker.
 

BuzzJive

Member
I'm not sure what you mean exactly by normal cyclical expectation? A generational fatigue would be evident in a decline that was subsequently reversed by new hardware.

The launch of the 3DS managed to arrest decline for about a year, but since then there's been a negative trend. It's not making up for the decline in NDS sales.

I think the software they have coming and the eventual price drops are only going to help them hold at an annualised sales rate of 5M, perhaps lift that rate to ~6M again. But I wouldn't anticipate any miracles getting Nintendo handhelds back to a 10M sales rate. Smart devices and 99c games have really taken the gloss off of dedicated handheld hardware.

The price is still keeping that reversal from happening. There is a huge perception difference between $169 for a dedicated game handheld and $129 - regardless of inflation as somebody else mentioned. 10M may not be achievable again, but 5M is a very unlikely baseline when we still haven't gotten close to an apples to apples comparison.
 

Kosma

Banned
Of course it doesnt feel that way when you see the same games go on sale on steam within months, or can download 1 euro games on mobiles.
 

Biker19

Banned
So many numbers in this thread...

1. 3DS - 225K
2. 360 - 140K
3. PS3 - 108K
4. DS - 54K
4. Wii - 53K
5. Wii U - 42K
6. Vita - 27K
7. Ouya - 13-19K (probably closer to 13K)
8. PSP - 8K
9. PSP Go - 34

The only console missing this month is PS2.

Everyone did a wonderful job this month on number leaks. This has been a fantastic NPD thread. :-D

Only downside was AZ Greg giving us false information. :-(

Wow. Wii U has even gotten beaten by it's own predecessor. The freaking Wii!

Also glad that The Last of Us has done well. :)
 
Wow. Wii U has even gotten beaten by it's own predecessor. The freaking Wii!

Also glad that The Last of Us has done well. :)

Unfortunately, the news gets even worse.

For every month of 2013, the Wii---which hasn't officially received any new 1st-party titles from Nintendo since September 16th, 2012---has outsold the Wii U.

WII U / WII YTD CUMULATIVE DISCREPANCY: ~119,000

0JWtZPn.png


Recently, the Wii U was closing the gap, but unfortunately, it jumped back up to 11K.

The sudden jump is surprising, considering I haven't noticed any specific price drops for Wii, and everything at E3 from Nintendo was Wii U / 3DS focused.
 

Leonsito

Member
I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking than PS3, 360, WiiU and 3DS are overpriced right now, all of them should get a price drop this fall.
 
Unfortunately, the news gets even worse.

For every month of 2013, the Wii---which hasn't officially received any new 1st-party titles from Nintendo since September 16th, 2012---has outsold the Wii U.

Yeah, that's pretty bad. Normally, it wouldn't be - it's perfectly fine for a last-gen market leader to outsell its successor for some time - but the Wii was all but dead before the Wii U launched, so in this case, it's just one more metric of how badly the Wii U is performing.
 

Curufinwe

Member
The HDD requirement is going to bite Sony's ass in the long run.

SCEA still hasn't offered a PS3 SKU with flash storage(as useless as it would be) they would have been able to drop the price even more.

It hasn't quite reached impulse buy yet

It's already the long run. The PS3 is almost seven years old now.
 
Unfortunately, the news gets even worse.

For every month of 2013, the Wii---which hasn't officially received any new 1st-party titles from Nintendo since September 16th, 2012---has outsold the Wii U.

WII U / WII YTD CUMULATIVE DISCREPANCY: ~119,000

0JWtZPn.png


Recently, the Wii U was closing the gap, but unfortunately, it jumped back up to 11K.

Again, this is surprising, considering I haven't noticed any specific price drops for Wii, and everything at E3 from Nintendo was Wii U / 3DS focused.
It's not really surprising considering that the Wii is a lot cheaper and the lack of first-party releases for the Wii U. If anything, it is surprising that the Wii can hold up as well as it has despite it coasting to its end for this long.
 
It's not really surprising considering that the Wii is a lot cheaper and the lack of first-party releases for the Wii U. If anything, it is surprising that the Wii can hold up as well as it has despite it coasting to its end for this long.

I'm not surprised that the Wii is doing well...I'm surprised that the discrepancy between the two consoles suddenly jumped back up to 11K this month.

If anything, the announcements at E3 and New Super Luigi U should have meant that the discrepancy would stay at ~3K a month.
 

guek

Banned
PS2 outsold the PS3 for quite awhile. Not quite sure about PS1 and PS2, though iirc PS2 was severely supply restrained.

Not trying to make excuses, just pointing out that it's not THAT unheard of. Though Wii sales aren't anything special either, Wii U sales are just that low.
 
Why the gap would grow between the two is weird. The wii didn't grow more appealing so did wiiu e3 make it less appealing? Or did the presence of games outside of Flop and Bomba in previous months close the gap. I just pray that pikmin 3 causes wiiu to outsell wii. The wii is getting to that ds point though where its presence is more of a nuisance. They should just end wii production, but knowing nintendo they have a new model lined up...
 

Myshkin

Member
First, that was non serious, and I owe you an explanation, alright. Nintendo is a centennial japanese company, that no matter its issues just don't want to die (350K systems sold this June), and is about - just like an old dragon (japan inspired me a dragon, don't ask me why!) - to wake up after a long hibernation (no Wii U release for months) and finally deliver the goods in H2.

You have the wrong idea about dragons. Dragons are evil. They are not like the apocryphal Puff the Magic Dragon. The Japanese know all about this. (I don't know how much you know about Japanese culture....)
 

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Why the gap would grow between the two is weird. The wii didn't grow more appealing so did wiiu e3 make it less appealing? Or did the presence of games outside of Flop and Bomba in previous months close the gap. I just pray that pikmin 3 causes wiiu to outsell wii. The wii is getting to that ds point though where its presence is more of a nuisance. They should just end wii production, but knowing nintendo they have a new model lined up...

Its simply price. People who want a Wii now buy it as a cheap Netflix box and for the back library of old used Wii games that one can find in various places. Wii U doesn't have either of those things going for it.
 

Myshkin

Member
How is 3DS doing so far compared to last year?

It's in this chart, if you think the numbers are accurate:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=71538051&postcount=1356
(and you have great eyes)
[Looks like just over a mil last year and just under a mil this year???]

Yet their big games for launch were Nintendo Land and New SMB 2. They complain about HD development, but to me it screams of embarrassing planning by them. Under staffed? Had all the time to prepare for it. HD development? These guys had 6 more years than the competition to plan for it.

They should have expanded their workforce years ago. And while WiiU was first in development had a bunch of people working on HD ports. That way they groom people to be on HD teams, and have lots of stuff to sell, especially to anyone new to Nintendo.
 
Nintendo simply didn't use its time wisely. A series of bad planning really. They had a whole lot of cushion to learn about HD development in R&D, but decided to be stuck in the past during the Wii generation. Cut the generation short in 2011, with some of its big games like Super Mario Galaxy 2 having been released in 2010. They decide to pull a fast one on Sony and MS and release the Wii U a full year before the other next gen consoles.

Yet their big games for launch were Nintendo Land and New SMB 2. They complain about HD development, but to me it screams of embarrassing planning by them. Under staffed? Had all the time to prepare for it. HD development? These guys had 6 more years than the competition to plan for it.

And it's not like Nintendo just released the most complex and hardest console to develop for in the world either.
 
When I first heard Sony was going to release a new IP at the end of the gen I wondered why not wait but it's really smart: take a mature engine who's development has been paid for and test the game out in the market. If it flops you're not out too much, if it succeeds your investment was low and you get the moolah and the momentum going into the next gen.
 
Didn't see that, thanks. Looks pretty much flat from what I can see, the latter half of this year should blow past last year.

vdnt00P.png


3DS (2013) is currently lagging behind 3DS (2012) by a small amount...not a good sign for a maturing console.

But you're right...Pokemon X/Y should blow the console into staggering heights for the second half of the calendar year.
 

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
Nintendo simply didn't use its time wisely. A series of bad planning really. They had a whole lot of cushion to learn about HD development in R&D, but decided to be stuck in the past during the Wii generation. Cut the generation short in 2011, with some of its big games like Super Mario Galaxy 2 having been released in 2010. They decide to pull a fast one on Sony and MS and release the Wii U a full year before the other next gen consoles.

Yet their big games for launch were Nintendo Land and New SMB 2. They complain about HD development, but to me it screams of embarrassing planning by them. Under staffed? Had all the time to prepare for it. HD development? These guys had 6 more years than the competition to plan for it.

And it's not like Nintendo just released the most complex and hardest console to develop for in the world either.

Completely agreed. Its really pathetic to see various people in Nintendo try to use that as an excuse for the delays.

It's like they were completely oblivious as to what was going on in the industry for the last 7 years outside of their own little bubble. They didn't have to look very far to see other companies struggle with HD development.
 
Big N really did waste a ton of time.

The Wii's success at selling units was straight up fools gold IMO. It blinded them. They stayed with an aging architecture for 11 years. To think they would be able to just wing it at software development is very foolish of them. They had no knowledge of developing on an HD platform that had multiple cpu cores and fully programmable shader cores.

They have no excuse, tbh. They should have been learning all of this stuff at the end of last decade, but they didnt and now it's biting them in the ass with damn near all their key games being delayed until 2014 which is when xbone/ps4 will be riding high on a fresh launch
 

StevieP

Banned
Big N really did waste a ton of time.

The Wii's success at selling units was straight up fools gold IMO. It blinded them. They stayed with an aging architecture for 11 years. To think they would be able to just wing it at software development is very foolish of them. They had no knowledge of developing on an HD platform that had multiple cpu cores and fully programmable shader cores.

They have no excuse, tbh. They should have been learning all of this stuff at the end of last decade, but they didnt and now it's biting them in the ass with damn near all their key games being delayed until 2014 which is when xbone/ps4 will be riding high on a fresh launch

Wait, are you saying that Nintendo (as a whole) has no knowledge of programming shaders and have no idea what multicore CPUs were during the last decade?
 
Completely agreed. Its really pathetic to see various people in Nintendo try to use that as an excuse for the delays.

It's like they were completely oblivious as to what was going on in the industry for the last 7 years outside of their own little bubble. They didn't have to look very far to see other companies struggle with HD development.

I agree as well, but as to the bold they've said as much, they don't pay attention to other companies. I really can't believe that by 2008 they didn't have a team they would rotate people into for say 6 months that only worked on make HD assets for a hypothetical game. Stuff like make a beautiful bowsers castle in HD, make a massive head spinning F-Zero track with 30 racers that ran at 60 fps in 4 player split screen, make a crazy Pikmin scenario with thousands of pikmin and enemies most under AI control, etc. Bring in some tired old Japanese big names who already killed themselves on HD 4 years prior. It wouldn't be cheap but it'd have been a hell of a lot cheaper than what hit them in the last few and next few (at least) years. Instead it seems like they were like "no probs, we got this" until 2010/11 when no, no they did not have it.

Wait, are you saying that Nintendo (as a whole) has no knowledge of programming shaders and have no idea what multicore CPUs were during the last decade?

Well they did know about dual core from the DS but that hardly counts. I wouldn't say they had "no knowledge" but they definitely had very little. This is plain as day from their 3DS and Wii U games, small time western devs and some devs rushing games are blowing them away in those regards. Not to repeat myself, but they've pretty much said as much, if only by the quote about dev teams needing to be twice as big. If they were aware of shaders, multicore CPU's, and other HD related things then this would not have been a problem (or at least not a nigh Dreamcastian one)
 
I agree as well, but as to the bold they've said as much, they don't pay attention to other companies. I really can't believe that by 2008 they didn't have a team they would rotate people into for say 6 months that only worked on make HD assets for a hypothetical game. Stuff like make a beautiful bowsers castle in HD, make a massive head spinning F-Zero track with 30 racers that ran at 60 fps in 4 player split screen, make a crazy Pikmin scenario with thousands of pikmin and enemies most under AI control, etc. Bring in some tired old Japanese big names who already killed themselves on HD 4 years prior. It wouldn't be cheap but it'd have been a hell of a lot cheaper than what hit them in the last few and next few (at least) years. Instead it seems like they were like "no probs, we got this" until 2010/11 when no, no they did not have it.



Well they did know about dual core from the DS but that hardly counts. I wouldn't say they had "no knowledge" but they definitely had very little. This is plain as day from their 3DS and Wii U games, small time western devs and some devs rushing games are blowing them away in those regards. Not to repeat myself, but they've pretty much said as much, if only by the quote about dev teams needing to be twice as big. If they were aware of shaders, multicore CPU's, and other HD related things then this would not have been a problem (or at least not a nigh Dreamcastian one)
Technically they've been using pixel shaders since 1998, or whenever their devs had working hardware to develop on. Might have been closer to 2000 in the closer to final design regard.

But around 2005 there was a significant push to a much different shader paradigm. Instead of just having shaders dedicated to specific pixel oriented tasks we were using more general purpose shaders that could handle either pixel or vertex oriented work.

The issue isn't that Nintendo hasn't used shaders. It's that they've used really arcane versions of the concept for so long that they aren't using the modern design very effectively or efficiently.

Still think their games are ending up beautiful, but I'm not oblivious to this reality.

edit: And it was something I never really expected.

I expected their devs even if in their spare time would acclimate themselves to the quirks of modern pixel shader usage.

edit again: Or at least toy around in zBrush before deciding that it didn't really fit the Nintendo style.
 

Biker19

Banned
Nintendo simply didn't use its time wisely. A series of bad planning really. They had a whole lot of cushion to learn about HD development in R&D, but decided to be stuck in the past during the Wii generation. Cut the generation short in 2011, with some of its big games like Super Mario Galaxy 2 having been released in 2010. They decide to pull a fast one on Sony and MS and release the Wii U a full year before the other next gen consoles.

Yet their big games for launch were Nintendo Land and New SMB 2. They complain about HD development, but to me it screams of embarrassing planning by them. Under staffed? Had all the time to prepare for it. HD development? These guys had 6 more years than the competition to plan for it.

And it's not like Nintendo just released the most complex and hardest console to develop for in the world either.

Completely agreed. Its really pathetic to see various people in Nintendo try to use that as an excuse for the delays.

It's like they were completely oblivious as to what was going on in the industry for the last 7 years outside of their own little bubble. They didn't have to look very far to see other companies struggle with HD development.

Big N really did waste a ton of time.

The Wii's success at selling units was straight up fools gold IMO. It blinded them. They stayed with an aging architecture for 11 years. To think they would be able to just wing it at software development is very foolish of them. They had no knowledge of developing on an HD platform that had multiple cpu cores and fully programmable shader cores.

They have no excuse, tbh. They should have been learning all of this stuff at the end of last decade, but they didnt and now it's biting them in the ass with damn near all their key games being delayed until 2014 which is when xbone/ps4 will be riding high on a fresh launch.

I agree with all of you. It's Nintendo's own fault. They were too busy thinking about all the money that they were making throughout both DS & Wii, that they didn't even think about the future of HD development & what they'll have to go through with it.

Heck, they even had to have Namco-Bandai, a 3rd party publisher/developer, help them develop the upcoming Super Smash Bros. game for Wii U.
 

BowieZ

Banned
The blowup also coincided with the DL Lite redesign and NSMB's release.
Hmm, I just had this flash of inspiration. What if Nintendo came out with 3DS Lite (like a mini XL) and Super Duper Mario Bros. (lol) next year?

Cheaper price floor, encourage millions of OG users to upgrade or double dip, brand new 2D Mario game with new artstyle, advertised like crazy worldwide, maybe throw in a new Brain Age game for the oldies.

Could this exact same strategy work again?
 
Technically they've been using pixel shaders since 1998, or whenever their devs had working hardware to develop on. Might have been closer to 2000 in the closer to final design regard.

But around 2005 there was a significant push to a much different shader paradigm. Instead of just having shaders dedicated to specific pixel oriented tasks we were using more general purpose shaders that could handle either pixel or vertex oriented work.

The issue isn't that Nintendo hasn't used shaders. It's that they've used really arcane versions of the concept for so long that they aren't using the modern design very effectively or efficiently.

Still think their games are ending up beautiful, but I'm not oblivious to this reality.

edit: And it was something I never really expected.

I expected their devs even if in their spare time would acclimate themselves to the quirks of modern pixel shader usage.

edit again: Or at least toy around in zBrush before deciding that it didn't really fit the Nintendo style.

Yeah, I meant the newer shaders (it's been at least 5 years since I've really following tech so I'm not up on the lingo anymore). It just surprises me how unprepared they were for a (semi?)modern console. I forget if it was Capcom who surprised Nintendo with that they could do on the 3DS years back. I was thinking more in terms of an organized program of modern, though at the time useless, development but even encouraging workers to play around would have been better. There's a reason there's the term "late-comer's advantage" in economics and it simply shocks me Nintendo decided they didn't want it.
 
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