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[metalslimer]

Despite it likely declining from Wii, Wii U will still have huge basically exclusives from Nintendo like Mario Kart, Smash, Wii Fit, NSMB, etc which means there is no way it sells that bad.

Oh.

Well i won't disagree with that argument. I don't think the Wiiu will be sliding towards 5k the rest of its life. Still the quantity of games far exceeds what Nintendo puts out so unless FF starts selling sub 1 million for main installments its hard seeing ps4 having a huge declune from ps3.

 

[pieatorium]

Despite it likely declining from Wii, Wii U will still have huge basically exclusives from Nintendo like Mario Kart, Smash, Wii Fit, NSMB, etc which means there is no way it sells that bad.

Oh.

except we've see what those franchises can do for a system that doesn't have Wii sports, it's called the Gamecube.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Well i won't disagree with that argument.

Well, I'm just saying, those franchises aren't a guarantee of success, just as the Nintendo franchises aren't a guarantee of Wii U's.

FFXV and KH3 are both a ways off and it remains to be seen how they'll be received upon release. FF is in a much worse place that it was at the start of the generation. RE we know nothing of at this point; it could end up terrible or unappealing.

except we've see what those franchises can do for a system that doesn't have Wii sports, it's called the Gamecube.

Well, 50% of the games I listed never appeared on Gamecube, but factual errors aside, the PS3 is down about 50% on its predecessor while most of the franchises metalslimer listed were present on both (minus KH, but there was that HD collection, but still no, not going to count it).

 

[pieatorium]

RE 6 was terrible but the best selling RE in japan, quality isn't generally correlating to success.

 

[Kid Ying]

Also not only will it be priced more affordably but it's main competitor is at a higher price than it's predecessor so the difference between them this time is minimal.

Well, we don't know the PS4 price in Japan to judge and Wiiu is on a higher price than the Wii, but it's not as big as in the west. The basic in Japan is 26000 yen, where the Wii was only 1000 yen cheaper. The deluxe is 31,000. Of course you can find both cheaper than this. The basic package on amazon is the same as the Wii price back then.

So, if Sony releases the PS4 for 40000 yen, which is a reasonable price, would be the double of the difference in the west between him and the Wiiu deluxe.

This actually bodes well for Nintendo overseas, since when they released the Wiiu, the yen was much stronger, so i think a pricecut is doable now on the west, but not in Japan. The pricecut some people want here is already a reality there.

 

[SmokyDave]

In case Level 5 spending 45 minutes presenting a smartphone game as the centerpiece of their game line-up followed by the unveiling of Layton 7 wasn't enough mobile news for you today, Namco Bandai has announced Tales of Link for smartphones: http://gematsu.com/2013/08/tales-of-link-announced-for-smartphones

I'm wondering how this smartphone support is going to affect the Vita. It seems like it's be easy to do quick and dirty ports of many of these titles to the Vita, but not the 3DS. I doubt that it will negatively affect the 3DS too much, but it might help buoy up the Vita a little.

Of course, that's assuming that pubs bother with quick and dirty ports, and that people actually want to play them on a Vita.

 

[michaelius]

Despite it likely declining from ps3, ps4 will still have huge basically exclusives from japan like resident evil, ff15, kh3, etc which means there is no way it sells that bad. At the very least it should do better than vita which has 0 big exclusives whatsoever.

There likely won't be decline from PS3 numbers.

- console is much cheaper at launch
- big name franchises are lining up to hit much earlier than on PS3
- competitors are virtualy non existing this time compared to wii fitness madness and microsoft buying x360 exclusives left and right
- customers are ready for next gen since almost anyone has HD tv this time around

So the market shrinkage will be coming from Microsoft and Nintendo part.

 

[MrCookiepants]

Yeah, I can't see PS4 selling less than 10 million lifetime in Japan. That's still terrible for a market leader, mind you.

 

[Busaiku]

PS3 hasn't sold 10 million, you honestly expect PS4 to do more?

 

[duckroll]

http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/000/701/701794/

Puzzle & Dragons Z will be released on the 3DS in Japan on Dec 12 for 4400yen. There will be a digital version on the eShop for 4000yen. Now that it's out of the F2P moneyzone and into the retail priced zone, will it still find enormous success? Time will tell!

 

[michaelius]

PS3 hasn't sold 10 million, you honestly expect PS4 to do more?

It's getting there somewhere in 2014 probably. Plus it lost 2-3 years when generation started thanks to HD transition and programming nightmare.

 

[Aostia]

PS3 hasn't sold 10 million, you honestly expect PS4 to do more?

PS3 will hit 10 millions imho, and I think that PS4 will do similar LTD numbers.
The market is smaller today, and imho the 3DS will do PS2-like numbers, while Vita will probably do GC-like LTD sales. In the home segment, I think that the Xbone will really do absymal numbers (less than 1 million, worst than Xbox1), and the Wii U will match GC-like LTD sales. PS4 is in the position to suffer the smaller market, but increase its market share (due to MS and N issues in the home market) and increase the home console market share over the handheld one. That means repeat PS3-like numbers

so, roughly:

DS 35
PSP 20
Wii 13
PS3 10
X360 1.5

total almost 80 millions

VS

3DS 23
PS4 10
Vita 5
Wii U 4.5
Xbone 1

total almost 44

 

[BriBri]

Siliconera have just tweeted that Puzzle & Dragons Z is dated for 12 December. So it will definitely make the holiday season after all.

 

[duckroll]

If only someone didn't post that news with more details in this very thread just 3 posts earlier... hmmmm.

 

[BriBri]

If only someone didn't post that news with more details in this very thread just 3 posts earlier... hmmmm.

Forgive me for preparing for an exam, making porridge and tea, bathing and doing my washing in the same few minute period

 

[Glass Rebel]

http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/000/701/701794/

Puzzle & Dragons Z will be released on the 3DS in Japan on Dec 12 for 4400yen. There will be a digital version on the eShop for 4000yen. Now that it's out of the F2P moneyzone and into the retail priced zone, will it still find enormous success? Time will tell!

Well, they are expecting at least 1 million!

I don't think they will reach that but who knows.

 

[duckroll]

Forgive me for preparing for an exam, making porridge and tea, bathing and doing my washing in the same few minute period

Exam + GAF is a deadly mix. Good luck!

 

[Aostia]

I don't think that Puzzle & Dragons Z will be such a big hit on 3DS. especially in its retail version (so in "our" charts)

 

[Nibel]

http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/000/701/701794/

Puzzle & Dragons Z will be released on the 3DS in Japan on Dec 12 for 4400yen. There will be a digital version on the eShop for 4000yen. Now that it's out of the F2P moneyzone and into the retail priced zone, will it still find enormous success? Time will tell!

I think this will do good, but it will no way in hell replicate its F2P success like it did on smartphones - additional content won't change this

I can see kids with no smartphones buying this though

 

[BriBri]

Exam + GAF is a deadly mix. Good luck!

Thanks, I'm just glad it's not on a Wednesday!

I'm guessing with Daigasso scheduled for December too that Mario Party won't make the holiday period.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Thanks, I'm just glad it's not on a Wednesday!

I'm guessing with Daigasso scheduled for December too that Mario Party won't make the holiday period.

We'll have to wait for the next direct to be absolutely certain but I can't decide if Mario Party skipping 2013 is a good idea or not. On one hand, the 3DS has Monster Hunter, Pokémon and to a lesser extent Zelda and Puzzle & Dragons pushing sales for the rest of the year. On the other hand, they already have Smash Bros. and Mario Golf lined up for next year. It might eat into their sales which will be especially problematic for Mario Golf.

Good luck, btw

 

[duckroll]

We'll have to wait for the next direct to be absolutely certain but I can't decide if Mario Party skipping 2013 is a good idea or not. On one hand, the 3DS has Monster Hunter, Pokémon and to a lesser extent Zelda and Puzzle & Dragons pushing sales for the rest of the year. On the other hand, they already have Smash Bros. and Mario Golf lined up for next year. It might eat into their sales which will be especially problematic for Mario Golf.

Good luck, btw

Zelda is next year for Japan.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

But for how long...?

Considering Tales of Xillia's success quite long.

Let the next gen begins



They are

That audience is not there with the WiiU. You will see just how much the Wii series will shrink.

ignoring them like Sony is ignoring the Japanese audience?

Except Sony have a Japanese specific conference on the 9th and are attending TGS. They are hardly ignoring Japan just catering to them in a different event. Heck even in the reveal event we still had SE and Capcom come out and at E3 KH3 and FFXV announced.

I still think the console scene in Japan will shink 60%+. If the PS4 launches in Japan this year I think it's completely screwed: it has nothing unless we see some super secret TGS stuff. It should honestly wait until it has at least more than Hot Shot's golf to launch with.

Considering they have their own press conference I am sure they have something other than Hot Shots. Yakuza Ishin is possible. Also its worthy to note that if it does launch this year it will have titles like BF, COD, AC(?) which do decent numbers in Japan.

The PS3 may have launched at a higher price but it launched off the back of the PS2 WITH backward compatitability and a Blu Ray player. The Playstation brand in general was stronger back then with two successful consoles on the market. Now it has one semi-successful console that is selling similar numbers the Wii was doing last year and one niche handheld.

The price outweighed all these factors and the lack of games too. Price is no longer a
issue and we can decide if the lineup is after the conferences.

The overlap between handhelds and consoles is now far greater too than it was at PS3 launch. Bar openworld experiences, most types of game can now be done on both handhelds (obviously not to the same extent) so the PS4 has more near-competitors. On top of that, if inital sales are weak this time, game devs may not have the faith the keep the JP-centric releases going. Sure you'll get FF and RE but I'd be surprised if they weren't western focused and the smaller studios will probably go iOS.
I'm gonna put my head on the line but I think Wii U will still win Japan with 6-7 million sales LTD. PS4 sub 6 million.

I think the PS4 will do at least as good as the PS3. It has a lower price point for one and I am sure the lineup for its first year will be better than the PS3's. I don't see the WiiU outselling the PS4. The lack of third party support guarantees this unless they do get third party support but thats not looking realistic.

Ha ha. Everything about the ps4 build up so far suggest Sony doesn't give a damn about the japanese home console market. I think they see which way the wind is blowing over there (mobile/3ds paradise)

Well its only sensible for them concentrate on their biggest markets. They are no way ignoring Japan though. I don't see what basis you can say that without noticing their two Japan specific conferences haven't even happened yet.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Zelda is next year for Japan.

Ah, I totally forgot, my bad. Judging by that release list Mario Golf and Mario Party are still this year but they just announced them in some direct and quickly forgot about them... what is Nintendo doing.

 

[saichi]

RE 6 was terrible but the best selling RE in japan, quality isn't generally correlating to success.

RE2 sold over 2 million in Japan... RE6 is not even top 3 selling RE in Japan with all releases combined

 

[duckroll]

Ah, I totally forgot, my bad. Judging by that release list Mario Golf and Mario Party are still this year but they just announced them in some direct and quickly forgot about them... what is Nintendo doing.

There should be an interesting Nintendo Direct in Sept or Oct detailing year end games as well as new stuff for 2014. If not, then Nintendo has really lost the plot completely. I expect some interesting stuff, but probably more for 3DS than WiiU.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Ah, I totally forgot, my bad. Judging by that release list Mario Golf and Mario Party are still this year but they just announced them in some direct and quickly forgot about them... what is Nintendo doing.

Golf is next year now, MP is Winter 2013, so Dec probably. Dunno when Band Bros. is coming.

There should be an interesting Nintendo Direct in Sept or Oct detailing year end games as well as new stuff for 2014. If not, then Nintendo has really lost the plot completely. I expect some interesting stuff, but probably more for 3DS than WiiU.

Wii U has something like 12 games that aren't this year, while 3DS has ... 3 (Yoshi, Zelda, Golf?) so that makes sense.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

RE2 sold over 2 million in Japan... RE6 is not even top 3 selling RE in Japan with all releases combined

At least it outsold all RE's on the PS2 even RE4.

Its worth noting that PS1 was a monster for third parties. Parasite Eve did over 1 million iirc. Parasite Eve.... -__-

 

[duckroll]

Wii U has something like 12 games that aren't this year, while 3DS has ... 3 (Yoshi, Zelda, Golf?) so that makes sense.

I hope they'll be comfortable enough to give a full reveal for X soon though. An actual title and a full trailer would be good for building momentum for the game.

 

[1st Course]

RE2 sold over 2 million in Japan... RE6 is not even top 3 selling RE in Japan with all releases combined

The PS1 was a beast when it come to Japanese sw sales, I believe it's actually Japan no.1 console when it come to total sw sold iirc.

 

[LiberaTeExInferis]

I live in Greece, a country with such a low percent of videogame advertising.

So, I was wondering.
What do you think would be an ideal promotional campaign for a game like W101 in Japan?

What worries me is that even such low numbers wont give an alarm call to Nintendo, regarding their promoting policies and their almost ocd decision to not advertise a game, until very close to its release date.

When did such a policy bear any fruits to be deemed as succesful?Baffling!

 

[Deleted member 125677]

I wish they would show something from the SMTxFE thingy soon too..

 

[duckroll]

I wish they would show something from the SMTxFE thingy soon too..

I don't think it was anything other than a concept at the time it was announced. I'll probably give it a year or more from the announcement before they show anything off. So maybe early 2014.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

I don't think it was anything other than a concept at the time it was announced. I'll probably give it a year or more from the announcement before they show anything off. So maybe early 2014.

You are probably right. hmpf.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

PS3 hasn't sold 10 million, you honestly expect PS4 to do more?

Considering that the PS3 hasn't been priced as low as the PS1/PS2 during a similar point, i don't blame it on selling <10 million.

The success of PS4 all depends on what kind of Japanese support it will be getting at launch. We will know about it in the 9th Sep conference and TGS.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I hope they'll be comfortable enough to give a full reveal for X soon though. An actual title and a full trailer would be good for building momentum for the game.

Trailer in September is less likely than one in December/January, in my opinion, but either way I hope we see more soon.

 

[Glass Rebel]

There should be an interesting Nintendo Direct in Sept or Oct detailing year end games as well as new stuff for 2014. If not, then Nintendo has really lost the plot completely. I expect some interesting stuff, but probably more for 3DS than WiiU.

It's probably futile to try to predict Nintendo but last year's general Direct was in late October (and another in early December) and since the last one was early August I think October makes sense.

I still feel that the chunk would be stuff from this year's TGS, smaller/downloadable titles and maybe a small surprise.

Golf is next year now, MP is Winter 2013, so Dec probably. Dunno when Band Bros. is coming.

So Golf was delayed. I found the slide from their analyst briefing which confirmed a 2014 release for NA and EU but couldn't find anything for Japan. I thought it was a bit too soon for Camelot to release another game roughly 1.5 years after Mario Tennis Open.

As for Band Bros., I don't know any Japanese but this is from the Direct (August 7) it was shown:

 

[Aostia]

Nintendo already setup the vast majority of things they can do on their own for 3DS and Wii U. Details about dates and so on will follow as usual in the NDirects, imho.
Of course, Wii U will probably still have struggles despite N games that will come out, but that is another topic, imho.
The only fact that buffles me is the DKCTF '14 decision for Japan, up to now.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I'm wondering how this smartphone support is going to affect the Vita. It seems like it's be easy to do quick and dirty ports of many of these titles to the Vita, but not the 3DS. I doubt that it will negatively affect the 3DS too much, but it might help buoy up the Vita a little.

Of course, that's assuming that pubs bother with quick and dirty ports, and that people actually want to play them on a Vita.

You are confusing mobile games with free to play games.

 

[StreetsAhead]

As for Band Bros., I don't know any Japanese but this is from the Direct (August 7) it was shown:

Aye, the official site says so too: http://www.nintendo.co.jp/3ds/anej/index.html

The only fact that buffles me is the DKCTF '14 decision for Japan, up to now.

Don't quote me, but I remember being told that games from Western studios (esp. Monster & Retro) have a habit of launching later in Japan than the West. Maybe localisation?

 

[michaelius]

You are confusing mobile games with free to play games.

There's a diffrence?

 

[Exterminieren]

There should be an interesting Nintendo Direct in Sept or Oct detailing year end games as well as new stuff for 2014. If not, then Nintendo has really lost the plot completely. I expect some interesting stuff, but probably more for 3DS than WiiU.

Nintendo have held a conference in September the last few years. They used it for the Wii U launch reveal/ Bayonetta betrayalton last year and the Mon Hun bombs the year before. I'd expect such a thing to be announced soon.

 

[test_account]

You are confusing mobile games with free to play games.

How so? Mobile and free to play games can both be made available on Vita.

 

[SmokyDave]

You are confusing mobile games with free to play games.

Huh? I was talking about both. F2P games are a subset of mobile games.

 

[Aostia]

Don't quote me, but I remember being told that games from Western studios (esp. Monster & Retro) have a habit of launching later in Japan than the West. Maybe localisation?

and I quote you!
Could be, but I find it...wired, considering the Wii U struggles also in Japan.

Nintendo have held a conference in September the last few years. They used it for the Wii U launch reveal/ Bayonetta betrayalton last year and the Mon Hun bombs the year before. I'd expect such a thing to be announced soon.

I think will see one Direct per month, honestly, but just with updates about release dates/bundles/demo and so on. they showed a lot of games (first/second party) that still have to hit the market (unlike the last couple of years)

 

[squall23]

http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/000/701/701794/

Puzzle & Dragons Z will be released on the 3DS in Japan on Dec 12 for 4400yen. There will be a digital version on the eShop for 4000yen. Now that it's out of the F2P moneyzone and into the retail priced zone, will it still find enormous success? Time will tell!

The thing about normal PAD is that Gungho is really generous with free magic stones/cash-paid currency. All of my cash-only monsters have all been free thanks to that and those monsters carry me through the game very well. I got Odin on my first roll.

I really wonder what would entice people to the 3DS version though when they've spent so much time and/or money on the normal game. The 2 main points are really the lack of a stamina bar (damn that thing) and game-exclusive monsters. I don't imagine people would be playing it for a story or attack animations.

 

[metalslimer]

I don't expect a single new Wiiu announcement until December at the earliest. Some fucking new trailers for games that launch in a few months will be nice and the countdown to Bayonetta's 2 sub half PS3 debut begins

 

[ZhugeEX]

If there was, the holding companies of those trackers (ASCII Media Works, Enterbrain, Media Create) would have them shut down immediately.

The whole purpose behind giving out sales data for free is to advertise their paid services. If they gave out every game's sales figures every week, there would be no reason to purchase their research.

However, Famitsu does occasionally give out lists of more comprehensive data, like a Top 100 report every half year.

Ah ok.

That makes perfect sense. Thanks for the explanation

 

[Sammy Samusu]

From the MH4 event:

 

[Hero of Legend]

There should be an interesting Nintendo Direct in Sept or Oct detailing year end games as well as new stuff for 2014. If not, then Nintendo has really lost the plot completely. I expect some interesting stuff, but probably more for 3DS than WiiU.

There's a bit of a good set-up leading to a Fall Conference/Direct:

- We still have little info about the Summer AHEM Fall Update.
- Shin'en confirmed to be announcing their new Wii U game(s) in the Fall, last year in fact Nano Assault NEO was announced in the Fall Conference.

I'm banking on it, it's only a question of when, not if. Hopefully mid-Sept as it has generally been since 2010. They skipped 2009 and in 2007 and 2008 it was early October.