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Nintendo shares plunge 6% by Monday close after trading as low as -18%

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spekkeh

Banned
I totally expect a new generation of consoles from Sony & Microsoft before the end of this decade. Either fall 2018 (five years after PS4/XBone launch) or fall 2019 (six years after PS4/XBone launch).

8 years was too long, from the start of last gen (Xbox 360 in fall 2005) until just this past November.

No it wasn't, the large install base was a boon to the AAA industry, only if the AAA publishers can't differentiate themselves from the AA rabble anymore will you get a new gen.
 

NeonZ

Member
If Nintendo were to produce a device that appealed to the 3rd parties(or give them some kind of incentive to develop for it) and properly market the device at the core audience and older gamers those type of games would sell better than before.

Not if they release this machine mid gen when the other consoles will be in their strongest phase. It'd be basically the same as the Wii U. They'd get some ports at launch, but they wouldn't sell well due to lack of userbase and just being ports that won't add much, and afterwards they'd be left with nothing again. Releasing a console mid gen is suicide.
 

MYE

Member
I see franchises have already been devided by the remaining factions.
I wonder if Miyamoto, Koizumi, etc will be directed to a prision camp, the gas chambers or secretly working as slaves in a MS or Sony base, in this amazing console wars scenario fueled by the purest form of wishfull thinking.

Sony should send their spies to figure out how to build a platformer, before the regime falls. MS should blackmale the lead engineers to figure out how to make a machine that lasts 2 years.
Leaving Iwata alive will fool the army into thinking they are not deadalready, so its imperative to secretly pluck away at the good stuff before the final blows inevitably drop.
 

Mr Swine

Banned
Not if they release this machine mid gen when the other consoles will be in their strongest phase. It'd be basically the same as the Wii U. They'd get some ports at launch, but they wouldn't sell well due to lack of userbase and them just being ports that won't add much, and afterwards they'd be left with nothing again. Releasing a console mid gen is suicide.

This is sadly true. The only thing Nintendo can do is keep releasing games and wait 5 years for the next gen consoles to come out.
 

wildfire

Banned
The Rueters paper gets it. The stock had to fall because Nintendo decided to cut the dividend by 62% and Nintendo hadn't explained at all how they'll reinvest that money they aren't going to pay out in dividends.

Getting less money upfront and offering zero explanation on the specifics of how they'll adapt to the market gives an investor who brought their stock in the last 2 months no reason to stick with it.
 

AmyS

Member
No it wasn't, the large install base was a boon to the AAA industry, only if the AAA publishers can't differentiate themselves from the AA rabble anymore will you get a new gen.

Last gen was such a long cycle because a.) devs were not used to programming for totally new, highly complex hardware with multi-core CPUs b.) the transition from standard definition to HD and c.) Microsoft & Sony had to recover from the MASSIVE multi billion dollar expenditures sunk into the R&D of complex new chips / hardware. manufacturing those consoles (especially for Sony), not to mention they too had to transition from SD to HD.

This time around, it's not going to be the same. HD development is very mature to the entire industry (except for Nintendo) and the new consoles (PS4, Xbox One) are fairly simple to code for, unlike at the start of the last gen.

The transition from PS4/X1 to the following generation shouldn't be too difficult in late 2018 or late 2019.
 

Melchiah

Member
I see franchises have already been devided by the remaining factions.
I wonder if Miyamoto, Koizumi, etc will be directed to a prision camp, the gas chambers or secretly working as slaves in a MS or Sony base, in this amazing console wars scenario fueled by the purest form of wishfull thinking.

Sony should send their spies to figure out how to build a platformer, before the regime falls. MS should blackmale the lead engineers to figure out how to make a machine that lasts 2 years.
Leaving Iwata alive will fool the army into thinking they are not deadalready, so its imperative to secretly pluck away at the good stuff before the final blows inevitably drop.

So, the competitors are nazis according to this scenario?
 

liger05

Member
This is sadly true. The only thing Nintendo can do is keep releasing games and wait 5 years for the next gen consoles to come out.

5 years? The trajectory it's on at the moment suggests the console wouldnt last that long. Are not retailers the key here? If they decide to ditch it then what choice do Nintendo have?
 

strikeselect

You like me, you really really like me!
What hardcore gamer didn't see this coming? The Wii U looked uninspired and mediocre right from the reveal.

It's sad to think that Nintendo could possibly be reduced to a mobile iPhone/Android developer. Makes me a little sick thinking about it.
 
5 years? The trajectory it's on at the moment suggests the console wouldnt last that long. Are not retailers the key here? If they decide to ditch it then what choice do Nintendo have?

My guess is that he is saying that they can rely on the 3DS until then.

Also, on the matter of waiting for the next cycle, let it be lesson to console manufacturers - don't realise consoles mid-gen.
 
Sony gets Metroid, Mario, Kid Icarus, Pikmin exclusives.

Microsoft gets Zelda and Pokemon exclusives.

If Steambox ever gets off the ground, they can have Sin and Punishment exclusives and the occasional Nintendo-published Silicon Knights title.

It will be great to play back-catalogue titles with trophies and achievements.
hell naw

Pokemon to Sony who gives it to SOE who finally makes the mmo we've all been waiting for. Zelda would be better in the hands of Naughty Dog, there is no Nintendo IP I'd give to an MS exclusive dev to be honest, split them between Sony and PC development
 
3 years in a row..come on. I've said forever that they need to license games out to Sony and Microsoft and they'd not only see profits, but would benefit...everything. I've always wanted to see a mario game on Playstation!
 
Assuming they can't save the wii u and have to look at their options beyond that, there's a mixture of things they could try to have a better chance in the near future. Simply releasing a nintendo console in 2015/2016 isn't going to cut it I'm afraid, even if it's on par with the ps4.
It won't make third parties invest in the platform, it won't solve their problems with development times nor their current negative image that will be hard to turn around after a failed console and 3/4 years of negative news in the (gaming) media. They need something that creates buzz and excitement.

- I like the idea of the next nintendo console to be compatible with steambox. It would give strategical advantages for both Valve (larger user base for Steambox as a platform), Nintendo (a vast stream of new software to avoid droughts) AND developers (only need to target one platform). Nintendo could add a "store premium" of a few dollars/euro to compensate for lost revenue on licensing fees as the platformholder.
They wouldn't need to release through steam themselves, although using a variation of steams network and account system that was compatible would be a big plus. They would need to go X86 just like playstation 4 for this to work.

It's one of the few things i've seen in discussions that would solve nintendo's biggest problems: 3rd party software, network infrastructure and software droughts.

- Another option is to make their next gen portable and home console on a compatible platform. Meaning (most) games can be played on both systems but with lowered resolution/less effects on the mobile one. In this case, go ARM.

- For mobile gaming, they could open a separate studio for this, (co) owned by nintendo whereby nintendo licenses it's IP/games exclusively to bring them to mobile platforms. I'm not thinking mario/zelda/pokemon games etc as is suggested most of the time, but rather smaller titles, that would also be released on the eshop. It's a gamble for sure, but I don't think i'd do as much damage as "mario goes mobile". A mobile NES/SNES virtual console might also be something to consider.

- Trying to make a partnership with a big company that might be interested in the living room. Amazon and maybe Samsung come to mind. Amazon for example has their huge S2 cloud network, an online media store, ebooks etc..
These are some great points. If they want to stay in the hardware business, partnerships could be incredibly helpful.
 

wsippel

Banned
3 years in a row..come on. I've said forever that they need to license games out to Sony and Microsoft and they'd not only see profits, but would benefit...everything. I've always wanted to see a mario game on Playstation!
Sony and Microsoft would benefit - and nobody else. Neither Nintendo nor gamers.
 
I guess I will stop coming into these WiiU doom threads, the insanity and stupidity of some of the comments is just too much for me. Rebranding? Release a new system? Stop all Wiiu games in development? Team up with Epic? Release nintendo games on iOS?

Are you fucking nuts?

Well, what do you suggest? It's become readily apparent that the current course isn't working, so what do you think Nintendo are going to do?

I've said forever that they need to license games out to Sony and Microsoft and they'd not only see profits, but would benefit...everything.

Not Nintendo hardware sales, presumably.
 

JoeM86

Member
Well, what do you suggest? It's become readily apparent that the current course isn't working, so what do you think Nintendo are going to do?

Certainly they're not going to do things that'll make their situation worse, such as many of the suggestions put forward on GAF this past weekend would do.
 

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
I'm really hoping for some 'OMG-NO-WAY' moment from Nintendo soon. Not necessarily in the sense of 'let's publish on other platforms' or whatever - just something surprising, some great acrobatic leap out of the corner they find themselves in.

I'd love, for example, for Nintendo to third pillar there way into VR. Not for Wii U. A new VR system that's just for VR. Paired with a Wiimote 3.0 for VR interaction. VR is potentially a whole new field that could sit along traditional home games and portables rather than replacing either, so it could give them something exciting to work on while Wii U croaks along for the next few years. And perhaps rekindle a relationship with the enthusiast market. It would be risky though, of course - it would be another fairly substantial R&D cost. If they want, though, they could share that cost by perhaps letting their platform straddle out onto PC (with software sold through a Nintendo store, of course).

Nintendo's boxes are not extraordinary, but VR hardware is ripe for 'specialness' and differentiation. So maybe sell a VR system (HMD+controller) for PC + maybe your own off-the-shelf box, and apply that great Nintendo software expertise to VR games.

/dream
 

Ninja Dom

Member
3 years in a row..come on. I've said forever that they need to license games out to Sony and Microsoft and they'd not only see profits, but would benefit...everything. I've always wanted to see a mario game on Playstation!

Said forever?

Sega did exactly this. How did it work for them?

If Hiroshi Yamauchi was still alive he'd return to the company and take the bull by the horns.
 
Where does that come from? How many 3rd party games are actual competitors to Nintendo games? This is nonsense.
its the Nintendo fan rational for why their platforms don't get 3rd party support, because Nintendo games are just too good bro, its silly but what can you do.
 

spekkeh

Banned
Last gen was such a long cycle because a.) devs were not used to programming for totally new, highly complex hardware with multi-core CPUs b.) the transition from standard definition to HD and c.) Microsoft & Sony had to recover from the MASSIVE multi billion dollar expenditures sunk into the R&D of complex new chips / hardware. manufacturing those consoles (especially for Sony), not to mention they too had to transition from SD to HD.

This time around, it's not going to be the same. HD development is very mature to the entire industry (except for Nintendo) and the new consoles (PS4, Xbox One) are fairly simple to code for, unlike at the start of the last gen.

Going from PS4/Xbox One to the folling generation won't be too difficult.

Those are good points. But you're still going to get a major shrinkage of the market (and subsequently AAA games) happening when the next consoles have an install base of 15-30 million users and the previous gen dies off. There's going to be quite some turmoil in the publisher market I can imagine. Only when the PS4 goes beyond 50M (I'm not even sure the Xbone will), you'll see the market stabilizing again to reach the same heights it is now. By that time, 4 years from now at least, the publishers will not want to immediately go to a new cycle. Who knows, by that time Gaikai and similar services may be mature enough that there doesn't need to be any.
 

JoeM86

Member
I'm really hoping for some 'OMG-NO-WAY' moment from Nintendo soon. Not necessarily in the sense of 'let's publish on other platforms' or whatever - just something surprising, some great acrobatic leap out of the corner they find themselves in.

January 30th is when Iwata will reveal a lot of this.

I don't get why they revealed this earlier, when the Q3 report isn't due until the 29th and Nintendo's "Strategic Meeting" as they call it isn't until the 30th. Them releasing these details that early has just made the situation worse, especially the situation on forums.

3 years in a row..come on. I've said forever that they need to license games out to Sony and Microsoft and they'd not only see profits, but would benefit...everything. I've always wanted to see a mario game on Playstation!

Both Sony and Microsoft's gaming division suffered losses for more than 3 years in a row (to the point that they are still in the red, cumulatively speaking), much bigger losses than Nintendo's projections too. Did you say the same things about them?
 

KingJ2002

Member
The Wii U is a bust... plain and simple... but it's too soon to throw the baby out with the bath water.

and although the 3DS just hit it's stride... it wont last long with new iPhone and android devices announced yearly

what should nintendo do?

Reboot The Wii U

Like i said before it's too soon to throw away the Wii U like it's the virutal boy. There are still many things nintendo can do to to at least salvage their console business. If they were to just release a console on the power level of the ps4 or xbox one it would still bomb. So Nintendo needs to re-assess the business, the management and come back with a gameplan... and i think this could help them in the console sector.

  • re-release the Wii U in 2015 with a new design and a new name. Make it smaller, tweak the guts if needed.
  • Put it out there for a disruptive price... say around 149.99 dollars.
  • In the box, just pack in the console, a wii mote, power cable, and hdmi cord. Leave everything else as an accessory (including the Wii Tablet)
  • Market it as family device and go back into the blue ocean you discovered with the original Wii. Position this to take on the Vita TV, Apple TV, and any other upcoming offering from Microsoft
  • Release it in multiple colors

Release a New Handheld

The Nintendo 3DS and 2DS are in a wierd space. The titles are helping the system move but this wont last very long as smartphones are becoming better gaming machines. Nintendo needs to release a next generation handheld device to redefine portable gaming on the go

  • Build this system with cutting edge handheld graphics... visual fidelity between Wii U and this handheld should be slim.
  • Look to major third party support for this console.
  • Stream video from handheld to Wii U or use TV as a second screen (ala Apple TV)
  • Heavily integrate Nintendo network for online streaming / download of games
  • Ditch 3D

Fix Nintendo Network

Nintendo needs to do this to ensure that they not only offer services on par with the competition but to future proof their business as the console business begins to sunset and the world on online streaming begins to rise.

  • Offer core features such as a Unified "Nintendo ID", Achievement Points, and many unifiying services that Xbox Live, PSN, Steam & Game Center Provides
  • Offer multiple applications to allow for third party services to make up for the services you don't provide (Spotify, Beats Music, rdio, etc)
  • Cater to indie developers... grow the base of indie developer who could deliver cult classics to go along an already impressive nintendo library.
  • Reach out to third party companies for exclusives... you may not get the popular multiplatform titles but at least go for exclusives that will keep your partners happy
  • Market this Nintendo network as a place where people can grab all things nintendo and download or stream nintendo video games from any device




All in all... i think this strategy would allow them to return to being a household favorite.

- Wii U turned into a affordable micro console
- New handheld
- Revamped Nintendo Network


This strategy should last them around 5 years until nintendo is ready to release their next console.
 

Ninja Dom

Member
January 30th is when Iwata will reveal a lot of this.

I don't get why they revealed this earlier, when the Q3 report isn't due until the 29th and Nintendo's "Strategic Meeting" as they call it isn't until the 30th. Them releasing these details that early has just made the situation worse, especially the situation on forums.



Both Sony and Microsoft's gaming division suffered losses for more than 3 years in a row, much bigger losses than Nintendo's projections too. Did you say the same things about them?

If you read the OP again, Nintendo issued a warning on Friday against their earnings for the financial year ending 31 March 2014.
 

Mithos

Member
Sony gets Metroid, Mario, Kid Icarus, Pikmin exclusives.

Microsoft gets Zelda and Pokemon exclusives.

If Steambox ever gets off the ground, they can have Sin and Punishment exclusives and the occasional Nintendo-published Silicon Knights title.

It will be great to play back-catalogue titles with trophies and achievements.

It's annoying enough to have to buy 2 consoles to be able to play Nintendo games and 3rd party games, now I have to buy 2 consoles just to play Nintendo games.

NO THANKS!
 

Sandfox

Member
Indeed.

Much like how Nintendo relied on GBA when GameCube wasn't bringing in much money.

Although, Wii U is selling worse than GameCube.

If they really wanted to they could probably get away with just selling the Wii U for an extremely low price or something like what was mentioned earlier in the thread.
 

Taker666

Member
January 30th is when Iwata will reveal a lot of this.

I don't get why they revealed this earlier, when the Q3 report isn't due until the 29th and Nintendo's "Strategic Meeting" as they call it isn't until the 30th. Them releasing these details that early has just made the situation worse, especially the situation on forums.



Both Sony and Microsoft's gaming division suffered losses for more than 3 years in a row, much bigger losses than Nintendo's projections too. Did you say the same things about them?

Probably to get most of "the sky is falling" negativity out of the way so by the 30th people will actually be interested to see what they have to say about them going forward. If they announced this stuff at the same time... everything else would have be drowned out.
 

JoeM86

Member
If you read the OP again, Nintendo issued a warning on Friday against their earnings for the financial year ending 31 March 2014.

Yeah I know, but it would have made more logical sense for them to have done that with their Q3 release next Thursday.
 

Ninja Dom

Member
The Wii U is a bust... plain and simple... but it's too soon to throw the baby out with the bath water.

and although the 3DS just hit it's stride... it wont last long with new iPhone and android devices announced yearly

what should nintendo do?

Reboot The Wii U

Like i said before it's too soon to throw away the Wii U like it's the virutal boy. There are still many things nintendo can do to to at least salvage their console business. If they were to just release a console on the power level of the ps4 or xbox one it would still bomb. So Nintendo needs to re-assess the business, the management and come back with a gameplan... and i think this could help them in the console sector.

  • re-release the Wii U in 2015 with a new design and a new name. Make it smaller, tweak the guts if needed.
  • Put it out there for a disruptive price... say around 149.99 dollars.
  • In the box, just pack in the console, a wii mote, power cable, and hdmi cord. Leave everything else as an accessory (including the Wii Tablet)
  • Market it as family device and go back into the blue ocean you discovered with the original Wii. Position this to take on the Vita TV, Apple TV, and any other upcoming offering from Microsoft
  • Release it in multiple colors


  • Leaving out the Wii U Gamepad would need Nintendo to seriously redesign the OS and UI. Seeing as many features of the core UI are built around the pad. Navigating familiar menus with the Wii Remote is painful.
 

Riky

$MSFT
If I was Nintendo now I would give up on trying to chase the mass market and go for your hardcore and lapsed fans.

So Starfox, Metroid, Metroid Prime, Waverace and F-Zero for starters, try and get this console to Gamecube levels by bringing those people back in.

Then go for the next iterations of those franchises early on the next consoles life in say 2016 to give yourself a platform with core gamers.
 

spekkeh

Banned
what should nintendo do?

Reboot The Wii U

Like i said before it's too soon to throw away the Wii U like it's the virutal boy. There are still many things nintendo can do to to at least salvage their console business. If they were to just release a console on the power level of the ps4 or xbox one it would still bomb. So Nintendo needs to re-assess the business, the management and come back with a gameplan... and i think this could help them in the console sector.

I love the Gamepad, for all the hate it gets it actually feels more 'premium' to me than the rival controllers. But it's true that in a world of tablets, it doesn't set anyone's imagination alight. I think it's probably a good idea to reboot it, the problem is they ostensibly have a few million of the things packed in warehouses and retail. Maybe they should offer two tiers. Keep the premium but also offer a value pack like you say.
 

JoeM86

Member
Probably to get most of "the sky is falling" negativity out of the way so by the 30th people will actually be interested to see what they have to say about them going forward. If they announced this stuff at the same time... everything else would have be drowned out.

That does actually make sense.

I am really excited to see what they have planned. Contrary to what people believe, what they reveal won't be a 2 week rush, but will have been in plans for months.

I mean hell, they funnelled ¥15bn more than budgeted into R&D this fiscal year. They wouldn't be doing that if they were going to go third party or on smartphones.

Nintendo have been expanding this year and has been changing, and expansion always has a hit on financials before it offers the boost.

We have something exciting coming, I can feel it.
 

BGBW

Maturity, bitches.
Nintendo should just pawn off their old and/or 5fth-tier IPs.

If they sell Ice Climbers, StarTropics, Star Fox, F-Zero, FlingSmash, Duck Hunt, Clu Clu Land, Animal Crossing, Metroid, Mother, Ice Hockey, Hogan's Alley, Odama, Batallion Wars, and Famicon Detective Club then i'm pretty sure they'd have more than enough to last another 15-20 years.
Ah, another fine example of someone not knowing what they are talking about.

So you can vote of course. Once you have a share they'll be forced to listen to you!
 

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
So yeah, thinking more on my last post, this is what I want Nintendo to do:

A $399 box. Inside the box is an awesome HMD and an advanced VR-Wii-Mote.

A new software platform for this VR system whose software runs on Wii U and PC/Windows.

Sell this system to PC owners and Wii U owners. Wii U being the cheap entry point.

Open the platform way up to indies - a freely available dev kit for PC.

Continue to dev non-VR games for Wii U, but focus most 'big budget' efforts on VR software.

In this scenario they still have all the advantages of a platform holder right now, but it gives them access to a new growth opportunity (PC gamers) and gives new relevance to Wii U, and a new connection to enthusiasts.

They may not capture a HUGE wii-like market this way, but I think they'd capture more than they will continuing on as is today, and will reconnect with bigger spending enthusiasts.

/wish-wish-wish
 
Both Sony and Microsoft's gaming division suffered losses for more than 3 years in a row (to the point that they are still in the red, cumulatively speaking), much bigger losses than Nintendo's projections too. Did you say the same things about them?

No because Microsoft and Sony have other business ventures. I know SOny has been struggling a bit but things are on the up and up. Nintendo's ONLY thing they have to do is video games. And to be that much in the hole...for that long without doing anything (waiting god knows how long on the new zelda) they need to do something game changing or just give up and sell to sony/microsoft. Be good for business and make us happy.
 
Leaving out the Wii U Gamepad would need Nintendo to seriously redesign the OS and UI. Seeing as many features of the core UI are built around the pad. Navigating familiar menus with the Wii Remote is painful.

Pretty much everything works fine now with a Wii Remote.

Entering text is easier with the Gamepad. Other than that, the Wii Remote is fine to me. I generally use a Remote or the Pro Controller unless I am forced to use the Gamepad.
 
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