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[CoffeeJanitor]

I think one of the bigger problems people aren't talking enough about is exactly when would be the right time for Nintendo to release a new console?

I already have my personal idea for what their new direction should be for their next console, but when do they release it?

If they do a short life cycle for Wii U (4 years? They can't go earlier than that) that leaves them launching the successor in 2016. Which is probably the prime of the PS4 and Xbone. Does it make sense to launch a new console 2 or even 3 years before the competition?

If they do a standard life cycle for Wii U (5-6 years), that brings them closer to PS5/Xbtwo launch, for sure... but man, I can't imagine having to endure the Wii U for another 4 or 5 years at this point. I don't know what notable software they can possibly have in 2016, let alone 2017 or 2018.

what I'm trying to say is... Nintendo is kinda fucked in this regard. Grind it out, or mercy kill it in 2 years just when PS4/Xbone are hitting their stride?

Anyone have any ideas? lol

This is one of the toughest questions they have to answer, and is partially why I think they should consider going toward software only...think about it. Say they hold out and release near the PS4/XBO successors--wait, how do we even know what these will be? Personally I'm not sure if we'll see another traditional console cycle after this. I see streaming tech being integrated, digital dominance, tablet integration...Things are just so up in the air. So if they do decide to go for another home console, I think it needs to be at a standard level of performance in power, network, services etc. or go in the other direction and go extremely cheap. If they ditched out on the hardware side, I think they would find great success on expanded platforms, also allowing them to access where the consumers of tomorrow reside.

I don't know. I just don't know.

 

[BGBW]

Whether it's on Sony or Microsoft systems, I don't see what is the difference? When Nintendo goes third-party, they still will be developing those games internally. The games would just be money-hatted onto a specific console for exclusivity.

I.E. The Xbox One exclusive Zelda game is still developed by EAD and Aonuma. Nintendo-published, Nintendo-developed, but moneyhatted for exclusivity.

You don't understand why people would hate going from buying one system for Nintendo games to three?

 

[SporeCrawler]

Very few of us agree about what Nintendo can or should do to get themselves out of their situation.

What I think we CAN agree on is that the tenor of the discussion about Nintendo changed this week, and in a significant way. There can no longer be any denial about the situation they're in.

I've been looking forward to this news - not because I want Nintendo to fail, but because I knew they were failing and yet half the people you'd talk to would outright deny it. 'Wait for the games' for Wii U, and '3DS in beast mode'. Fantasy stuff. It's just a little sad that this had to happen after one of their best years of software in a long, long time.

It's going to be a very, very interesting year.

i think the reason for the decline is not so much the wiiu, the failure was visible to many in advance, but the 3ds. 19 million was a high goal but a 5 million forecast cut is considered as shocking and after all the good news about 3ds it is opening up doubts again.

 

[airmangataosenai]

I'd say Nintendo would be better off with the 2016 release. Having it be substantially more powerful than the current consoles but far enough away from PS5/Xbox4 would allow them to sell themselves to publishers as an easy and quick port box ("What do you have to lose?") which will also offer the best graphics on consoles. It's a good strategy, or at least the best option I can see for them.

 

[Mistouze]

The likelyhood of Virtual Console coming to iOS/Androïd just shot up. Cross buy to throw a bone to people who have their console maybe.

There's always money in the NES/SNES catalog

 

[Dark Octave]

I love Nintendo but I'm loving that their dumb decisions are biting them in the ass again. We all seen what the tail end of the Wii was like. Why in the hell would you want to continue that?

Hopefully Iwata gets to keep all his fingers after this.

I'd say Nintendo would be better off with the 2016 release. Having it be substantially more powerful than the current consoles but far enough away from PS5/Xbox4 would allow them to sell themselves to publishers as an easy and quick port box ("What do you have to lose?") which will also offer the best graphics on consoles. It's a good strategy, or at least the best option I can see for them.

This generation is going to last no less than 8 years, they may as well. That would be four years(?) for the WiiU and it would only be two years into this gen with at least six more to go.

 

[Hyunashi]

Sony gets Metroid, Mario, Kid Icarus, Pikmin exclusives.

Microsoft gets Zelda and Pokemon exclusives.

Microsoft and Pokemon dont make sense.

But anyways, Nintendo should consider some PS4/XBone ports of Mario.

 

[Taker666]

I Just hope Nintendo stick with Wii u for at least 2 more years.

It's not like there's any point in releasing another home console anytime soon.

3rd parties would just treat it the same as Wii U.....probably even worse.

Might as well just stick with the Wii U,...maybe try a rebrand...or repurpose the tech in another device and release the same games on both.

 

[GHG]

Bloomberg - Nintendo Slumps Amid Pressure to Exit Hardware

Thanks, will update the OP with that link as well with the graph.

 

[AmyS]

Nintendo will not fully go 3rd party, meaning they don't have their own console OR their own handheld, for a long, long time. It's not in the foreseeable future. Not this decade.


Nintendo will push forward with the successors to both 3DS and Wii U, which have been in development since 2012.

Nintendo's future 7th home video game console might end up being their last console, but I think Nintendo would continue to make a generation or two of handhelds even beyond the one they're developing now.

In the early 2020s I could see Nintendo making console games for PlayStation 5 and whatever other home systems exist then. Perhaps even games for mobiles, but I doubt Nintendo will have completely given up on hardware at the start of the next decade. They'll most likely still be making their own handhelds then.

Spoiler

NINTENDO IS *NOT* SEGA

 

[DeFiBkIlLeR]

I'd say Nintendo would be better off with the 2016 release.

Nintendo haven't got the internal resources on the software development side to launch another console so soon.

They would have to halt all WiiU games development and shift them over to the new hardware, starting tomorrow, in order for them to have Mario & Zelda games ready for launch, because they are what they'd need.

It would literally mean no more WiiU releases from them after 2014.

 

[Sandfox]

3rd parties would just treat it the same as Wii U.....probably even worse.

It would depend on the device because if the userbase is made up of more core gamers 3rd party games would sell better.

It would literally mean no more WiiU releases from them after 2014.

That's what most people are already expecting to happen.

 

[sant]

They still have no idea what to do with the Wii U and I don't think anyone else does either

 

[Dark Octave]

It's not like there's any point in releasing another home console anytime soon.

3rd parties would just treat it the same as Wii U.....probably even worse.

Might as well just stick with the Wii U,...maybe try a rebrand...or repurpose the tech in another device and release the same games on both.

The reason why third parties are not supporting the WiiU is because they know there is no long term benefit with it. If Nintendo made a console that was on par with PS4 and XB1 then Nintendo's system would get all the same games as the other two.

 

[wsippel]

I know I'm in a minority, but if they went third party, I'd see it as a step forward. Nintendo are struggling with a lot of things, HD development, internet infrastructure, hardware, etc. Releasing on another platform means they don't have to worry about some of those things (again hardware, internet, etc), because it's already in place and they can focus on making games.

IMO, Nintendo are in the business of making and selling games. There's a huge user base out there waiting, why not sell them some games?

They would sell them some games alright, but people need to realize that they didn't produce W101, save Bayonetta 2 and develop X because they expect those games to be huge sellers, they create and publish such games because nobody else does anything like them for their platform. A hypothetical 3rd party Nintendo would have no need for such games, you'd see a very different, much safer lineup.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Nintendo - BBC report stock dropped 18%, but fail to mention by day end it was down only 6.15%. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25805136

https://twitter.com/gibbogame/status/425211190109671424

 

[Taker666]

It would depend on the device because if the userbase is made up of more core gamers 3rd party games would sell better.

It won't depend on the device at all.

Core gamers won't buy it because they won't expect 3rd parties to support it with core games...3rd parties won't support it with core games because they won't expect core gamers to buy it. It really doesn't matter what machine Nintendo makes.

 

[spekkeh]

Bye bye miss Japanese pie, drove my honda to the levee but the levee was dry. And good ole boys were drinking nihonshu and rice saying this will be the day that I die. This will be the day that I die.

 

[airmangataosenai]

That's what most people are already expecting to happen.

Yep. The way I imagine it is delay a few 2014 titles into 2015 to pad the lineup, and make Zelda cross-gen.

 

[Mpl90]

Just a question: the stock title in the Japanese stock market (which lost 6% today) and the one for US (which lost 17% Friday)...are they different or the same? I wanted some clarification on the matter.

 

[LoveCake]

Is there a company that is currently rich enough to launch a takeover of nintendo that would continue the charm and legacy of what Ninendo has built over the years without destroying their franchises?

Hypotheical I know, but I don't think one even exists other than possibly Valve.

Google.

I think Apple is more likely though.

 

[Taker666]

The reason why third parties are not supporting the WiiU is because they know there is no long term benefit with it. If Nintendo made a console that was on par with PS4 and XB1 then Nintendo's system would get all the same games as the other two.

It was on a par with 360/PS3..didn't get a bunch of the big games released on them. The same will be true of whatever they make next. They won't see any long term benefit in making games for their next console.

 

[akilshohen]

Other third parties should be REALLY scared if Nintendo ever goes third party...

 

[Exterminieren]

Montresor making a good grab for Worst Performance In Any Given Thread 2014.

 

[Sandfox]

It won't depend on the device at all.

Core gamers won't buy it because they won't expect 3rd parties to support it with core games...3rd parties won't support it with core games because they won't expect core gamers to buy it. It really doesn't matter what machine Nintendo makes.

If Nintendo were to produce a device that appealed to the 3rd parties(or give them some kind of incentive to develop for it) and properly market the device at the core audience and older gamers those type of games would sell better than before.

 

[GHG]

Nintendo - BBC report stock dropped 18%, but fail to mention by day end it was down only 6.15%. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25805136

https://twitter.com/gibbogame/status/425211190109671424

At the time the article was written the stock was down 18% and the markets were still open in Japan. Reuters reported it as well as many other news outlets at the time.

BBC haven't done anything wrong, they just need to update their article or publish a new one with the updated figures.

 

[AmyS]

Nintendo haven't got the internal resources on the software development side to launch another console so soon.

They would have to halt all WiiU games development and shift them over to the new hardware, starting tomorrow, in order for them to have Mario & Zelda games ready for launch, because they are what they'd need.

It would literally mean no more WiiU releases from them after 2014.

I agree.

The next Nintendo console is not going to be out in fall 2016, more like fall 2017, five years after Wii U's launch.

I could see the next handheld hitting anywhere from late 2016 to spring 2017.
The 3DS launched in early / spring 2011.

 

[StayDead]

Didn't Nintendo's shares jump an insane amount 2 weeks ago meaning that an 18% drop isn't that huge?

 

[tkscz]

Nintendo's stock falls and raises all the time. How is this news?

 

[KingSnake]

That's true too. Though the 3DS is obviously in MUCH better shape than the Wii U at this point. Would it be that surprising if 3DS has a longer life than Wii U? While they are having issues in the handheld space (mobile games), it's nothing compared to what they're going through in the console space. Shouldn't fixing those problems be their first priority?

You've gotten yourself into quite a mess, Nintendo...

3ds is already passed its sales peak. It will for sure go for another 2 years at a decent rate, but I don't think Nintendo should wait for a Wii situation and launch the next handheld after the current one is already dead.

 

[Sky Chief]

Nintendo's stock falls and raises all the time. How is this news?

The main news is slashing the console forecasts.

 

[Taker666]

If Nintendo were to produce a device that appealed to the 3rd parties(or give them some kind of incentive to develop for it) and properly market the device at the core audience and older gamers those type of games would sell better than before.

The only device that Nintendo could make to appeal to 3rd parties is one which moneyhats them for every port...and if they have to do that they may as well shut up shop.

 

[Taker666]

Didn't Nintendo's shares jump an insane amount 2 weeks ago meaning that an 18% drop isn't that huge?

An 18% drop brings in to around the lowest level it was in December..it was lower than this in September/October.

 

[Chao]

I guess I will stop coming into these WiiU doom threads, the insanity and stupidity of some of the comments is just too much for me. Rebranding? Release a new system? Stop all Wiiu games in development? Team up with Epic? Release nintendo games on iOS?

Are you fucking nuts?

 

[Sadist]

Other third parties should be REALLY scared if Nintendo ever goes third party...

Then they really can't compete with Nintendo

Third parties get all mad, Nintendo eating their lunch

EA gets all prissy and decides to go Origin and Mobile exclusive

Other publishers follow

MS and Sony can't survive their console business and step out

GAF; goddamnit Nintendo why are you suck dicks, you can't do anything right, even being a third party is hard!!1!1!

 

[Dark Octave]

It was on a par with 360/PS3..didn't get a bunch of the big games released on them. The same will be true of whatever they make next.

There was eight years worth of PS3 and 360 consoles in the wild. Nobody owns a WiiU. It makes no sense to spend time and money on a system that's eight years outdated from day one. Some companies that could afford it tried. EA and Activision tried and I believe EA decided it wasn't worth it in the end.

If the world is moving on in a year or two, why bother? Once the PS3 and 360 are out of the picture, every game developed for the WiiU has to be exclusive, even if there is a version on the PS4 and XB1 it can't simply be a port. I wouldn't want to spend money and time on exclusives three years from now when porting is standard business nowadays. Nintendo is asking companies to treat them special when they are offering nothing special in return.

Other third parties should be REALLY scared if Nintendo ever goes third party...

That could only be the case if Nintendo made every genre in the world and made them all better than everyone else.

Which isn't the case.

 

[AmyS]

This generation is going to last no less than 8 years, they may as well.

Both EA and Sony think this generation will be a shorter cycle, lasting five to six years.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=724489

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=724642


That would mean NEXT-gen consoles (i.e. PS5) by no later than fall 2019.

It's not going to be another 7-8 year cycle before we get new consoles, but a more normal cycle lasting 5 ~ 6 years.

 

[plufim]

Other third parties should be REALLY scared if Nintendo ever goes third party...

As soon as Nintendo puts their stuff on other consoles, third parties will just have to exit the industry entirely.

I mean, competing with Nintendo is just so hard!

 

[Dark Octave]

Both EA and Sony think this generation will be a shorter cycle, lasting five to six years.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=724489

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=724642


That would mean NEXT-gen consoles (i.e. PS5) by no later than fall 2019.

It's not going to be another 7-8 year cycle before we get new consoles, but a more normal cycle lasting 5 ~ 6 years.

I hope this is true. Those last couple of years were becoming hell.

As soon as Nintendo puts their stuff on other consoles, third parties will just have to exit the industry entirely.

I mean, competing with Nintendo is just so hard!

Because nobody does Ratchet and Clank, CoD, Gears of War, Batman, Assassin's Creed and Final Fantasy quite like Nintendo.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Sonic isn't really a good example because the newest game reviewed really bad and couldn't even sell anything on the 3DS. A majority of the people who played on the Wii and DS weren't traditionally gamers so many of them probably either stopped gaming, stayed on their previous devices or went to the next trend which is mobile gaming.

At the time the article was written the stock was down 18% and the markets were still open in Japan. Reuters reported it as well as many other news outlets at the time.

BBC haven't done anything wrong, they just need to update their article or publish a new one with the updated figures.

The info should be included in the OP that's all.

 

[StayDead]

An 18% drop brings in to around the lowest level it was in December..it was lower than this in September/October.

Oh so once again there's another thread to bring in the doom of Nintendo with nothing but complete and utter hyperbole? I'm all for people thinking Nintendo is in trouble but this is getting ridiculous. There isn't a day without a new Nintendo is doomed article and it's been like that for ages :|

 

[Neon_Icarus]

So, at this rate (assuming Iwata can't turn things around) how many years until Nintendo runs out of money?

 

[GHG]

The info should be included in the OP that's all.

It is.

 

[MYE]

exactly, i'm no fan of that greasy fuck, but what do you expect him to say? "the wiiu has been a failure"?

Wow GAF has really been insuferable lately.

 

[Melchiah]

Not sure what the uproar over my post was. I tried to balance the distribution of franchises fairly. I get that I might have been too generous giving Microsoft the Zelda franchise, but Sony gets Mario + Pikmin + Metroid. Fair trade off.

The thing I would be most interested in for sure is Majora's Mask on XBLA.

The thing is, by dividing the franchises between platforms they'd be dividing their fanbase. If that ever was to happen, they should release them on one, or all platforms.

 

[E-phonk]

Assuming they can't save the wii u and have to look at their options beyond that, there's a mixture of things they could try to have a better chance in the near future. Simply releasing a nintendo console in 2015/2016 isn't going to cut it I'm afraid, even if it's on par with the ps4.
It won't make third parties invest in the platform, it won't solve their problems with development times nor their current negative image that will be hard to turn around after a failed console and 3/4 years of negative news in the (gaming) media. They need something that creates buzz and excitement.

- I like the idea of the next nintendo console to be compatible with steambox. It would give strategical advantages for both Valve (larger user base for Steambox as a platform), Nintendo (a vast stream of new software to avoid droughts) AND developers (only need to target one platform). Nintendo could add a "store premium" of a few dollars/euro to compensate for lost revenue on licensing fees as the platformholder.
They wouldn't need to release through steam themselves, although using a variation of steams network and account system that was compatible would be a big plus. They would need to go X86 just like playstation 4 for this to work.

It's one of the few things i've seen in discussions that would solve nintendo's biggest problems: 3rd party software, network infrastructure and software droughts.

- Another option is to make their next gen portable and home console on a compatible platform. Meaning (most) games can be played on both systems but with lowered resolution/less effects on the mobile one. In this case, go ARM.

- For mobile gaming, they could open a separate studio for this, (co) owned by nintendo whereby nintendo licenses it's IP/games exclusively to bring them to mobile platforms. I'm not thinking mario/zelda/pokemon games etc as is suggested most of the time, but rather smaller titles, that would also be released on the eshop. It's a gamble for sure, but I don't think i'd do as much damage as "mario goes mobile". A mobile NES/SNES virtual console might also be something to consider.

- Trying to make a partnership with a big company that might be interested in the living room. Amazon and maybe Samsung come to mind. Amazon for example has their huge S2 cloud network, an online media store, ebooks etc..

 

[IvorB]

Wow. People who are saying Nintendo can shrug off the WiiU bomb are forgetting that it is a publicly listed company. They slashed WiiU sales projections by 70%! That's crazy...

 

[yogloo]

I want a nintenphone.

 

[spekkeh]

Other third parties should be REALLY scared if Nintendo ever goes third party...

Don't think so, the demographic is different. The reason the other consoles are winning is because the people that want to have photorealistic graphics in gritty shooters is simply a lot bigger than the group that wants to play colorful platformers.

 

[AmyS]

I hope this is true. Those last couple of years were becoming hell.

I totally expect a new generation of consoles from Sony & Microsoft before the end of this decade. Either fall 2018 (five years after PS4/XBone launch) or fall 2019 (six years after PS4/XBone launch).

8 years was too long, from the start of last gen (Xbox 360 in fall 2005) until just this past November.