I don't think so, I think Horizon and GOW: R will be exclusive at launch but then will release on XBox and Gamepass a little later. It only makes sense, just too much money to leave on the table.
This is so illogical. Why would Sony want to expand out onto Xbox when the more content MS controls the more they need exclusive IP to use as USPs? Its not like they need MS to access the PC market when Epic and Steam are just as good partners to go with.
Most of all though the whole "money on the table" argument is based on exploiting
existing markets and demand, not expanding out onto new markets where demand is purely hypothetical.
Its why from the start I considered it likely that Starfield would be exclusive. Yes, Bethesda have a pedigree but the property itself is untried and its actual value will only become manifest after it hits the market. Under those circumstances the risk/benefit calculation is very different compared to when an IP has an established audience and revenue stream that will be cut off by removing it from a competitor's platform.
The rationale is pretty simple; If Starfield comes out and becomes a smash hit critically and commercially, by not distributing the risk they are lining themselves up to reap all the benefits - not just in terms of income but of association with a new "hot" IP. This is potentially a big win not just in the short term, but in the mid and long term due to network effects. What's more should it not live up to expectations they are free to try and claw back some revenue by pushing it out onto PlayStation a year or more later should they deem it worthwhile.
On the other hand with something like say CoD, you have a very large existing audience only a portion of which will you be able to migrate onto Xbox/PC every year. You might pull a couple of million converts immediately, but many will play a waiting game, and some will be lost forever. Its impossible to argue that it won't cost sales, income, and brand value. Not to mention the optics are terrible; there will be a backlash to manage because a lot of people will not be happy about having to shell out money for new hardware for really no benefit other than to continue playing what they've been playing with their friends for years.