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BO 07•15-17•16 - Ghostbusters bows but Pets bow wow, Dory rekts Shrek for DOM record

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Ridley327

Member
Ice Age failed domestically. They will probably still break even, looking at the international numbers. The movie hasn't opened in China, and has grossed 134 million already. If it can reach 300 million worldwide, it won't be as bad.

If that's the best it can hope for, then the series is going to end without a second thought. You don't shed $600 million and expect to get it right next time. There is no next time.
 

groansey

Member
Ghostbusters deserved better, but the takeaway for Sony is that they had entirely the wrong creative team behind it.

There was an approach they could've taken which could've been huge and given them JW/TFA numbers... but a smaller budget and October opening would've made more sense. Creatively, they've burnt those bridges now. Pascal and Feig need to go. That the cartoon is some futuristic Ghostbusters doesn't inspire confidence either. The shared universe is essentially DOA.

Meanwhile, Secret Life of Pets doesn't deserve the money it's raking in, or the positive reaction, the trailer was the best bit and the rest of the movie is a charmless Toy Story retread.
 
Ghostbusters deserved better, but the takeaway for Sony is that they had entirely the wrong creative team behind it.

There was an approach they could've taken which could've been huge and given them JW/TFA numbers... but a smaller budget and October opening would've made more sense. Creatively, they've burnt those bridges now. Pascal and Feig need to go. That the cartoon is some futuristic Ghostbusters doesn't inspire confidence either. The shared universe is essentially DOA.

Meanwhile, Secret Life of Pets doesn't deserve the money it's raking in, or the positive reaction, the trailer was the best bit and the rest of the movie is a charmless Toy Story retread.

I couldn't disagree more, the Ghostbusters brand has never been anywhere close to being that big
 

Ridley327

Member
I don't think it could have made much more than it did no matter when it released tbh, with a budget like that there was no way they were going to make anything off it.

I will never understand why Universal thinks that you can take the approach of The Mummy and apply it to all of the Monsters and expect it to work just as well. With the kind of stories that you tell with vampires and werewolves and reanimated corpses, there is simply no economic justification for pumping that much money into those properties.

The Mummy had an easy time shedding its horror image because it really doesn't take a lot of effort to turn that into a pulpy action-adventure. That is not something you can do with Dracula, as they clearly demonstrated already with their shared universe non-starter, and it makes even less sense for the other ones in the roster. Pumping $100 million into something like Creature from the Black Lagoon should be grounds for the executives in charge of that decision making to be banned from any kind of financial responsibility for the rest of their lives.
 
Is it enough to be the biggest bomba of the year? That's what I predicted in another thread and I would hate to be wrong.

Financially, no. There's still Alice through the Looking Glass. But in terms of impact to the studio? Probably. This was meant to launch a huge franchise for Sony. They desperately needed this to do well. Now it's back to square one.
 

spookyfish

Member
Financially, no. There's still Alice through the Looking Glass. But in terms of impact to the studio? Probably. This was meant to launch a huge franchise for Sony. They desperately needed this to do well. Now it's back to square one.

Maybe Marvel can come in and save that one, too ...
 
Glad to hear Star Trek's doing solidly. Beyond was a high-quality popcorn movie, and a breath of fresh air in this summer season.

Get Pegg on the next movie, ASAP.
 
That the cartoon is some futuristic Ghostbusters doesn't inspire confidence either. The shared universe is essentially DOA.
Make the animated movie
640

Have them get sucked through the portal/rift from GB2016 and team up with the girls for a movie before returning to the animated dimension.
By the end of that movie they know they need to expand quickly so they start franchising.
Then they do whatever they want with spinoffs, sequels and animated for a bit before doing that team up Sony will want.

*that also allows Sony to reuse characters everyone likes without necessarily rebooting them or "recasting" them.
The animated version of those characters would also work much better with the reboot team stylistically.
 
Another big victory for horror this year!

I wonder how the big showdown in October, between the sequels to Ouija and The Ring, is going to play out.

It's really a shame studios look at these type movies and think the financial rewards just aren't worth their time. They'd rather make that Ghostbusters or BFG money than produce a small budget, low risk horror film.
 

groansey

Member
I couldn't disagree more, the Ghostbusters brand has never been anywhere close to being that big

I disagree. '87-'90 it was huge.

As much as I hate the war around the film, and sections of the fanbase behaved disgracefully, they kind of have a point about Sony not making this film for them. Pascal thought they could take the brand and sell it to Melissa McCarthy's audience. When the fans protested (some were misogynist assholes but not all of them), Sony turned on the fanbase. So I understand the animosity there. Compared to JW/TFA where I would argue the studio catered to the fans first and foremost, because if you can deliver to the core audience, then chances are you'll deliver a product close to replicating what made the original popular with a wider audience.

And as it turns out, even if Sony had made a soft reboot for the core Ghostbusters fans, if they'd won over the "comic book guy audience" with a faithful sequel, it's hard to imagine them being in a worse position than they are now.
 
It's really a shame studios look at these type movies and think the financial rewards just aren't worth their time. They'd rather make that Ghostbusters or BFG money than produce a small budget, low risk horror film.

Lets be glad for that, if everyone was in that low budget horror game it'd be milked dry in a year or two.
Im fine with maybe 4 good-incredible horror movies a year.
 

kswiston

Member
It's really a shame studios look at these type movies and think the financial rewards just aren't worth their time. They'd rather make that Ghostbusters or BFG money than produce a small budget, low risk horror film.

The returns are pretty low.

It's fun to talk about a film quadrupling its budget in that first weekend, but for these low budget films, marketing is the biggest expense. Lights Out had a modest campaign, but TV ad spending alone in the US was over $7M as of last week. Throw in radio, internet, and print marketing (plus distribution costs), and you're probably looking at $15-20M in additional sunk costs on a smaller film like Lights Out. Break even on that is going to be $40-50M domestic.

This particular film will recoup that from the Theatrical cut alone (with additional money to be made on streaming and home media), but it takes like 10-20 of these types of films to hit the profit levels of something like Zootopia, Civil War, or Secret Life of Pets. That's why everyone chases the blockbusters.
 

Ridley327

Member
Lets be glad for that, if everyone was in that low budget horror game it'd be milked dry in a year or two.
Im fine with maybe 4 incredible horror movies a year.

It's pretty saturated as it is. IFC Midnight puts out like a bajillion films a year on their own, and there are other companies like Gravitas Ventures that are just as prolific. Sure, it's a lot of crap of sift through on an average basis, but that's no different from how it was in the more hallowed years for the genre, where for every masterpiece, there were at least ten films that were scientifically unwatchable.
 
The returns are pretty low.

It's fun to talk about a film quadrupling its budget in that first weekend, but for these low budget films, marketing is the biggest expense. Lights Out had a modest campaign, but TV ad spending alone in the US was over $7M as of last week. Throw in radio, internet, and print marketing (plus distribution costs), and you're probably looking at $15-20M in additional sunk costs on a smaller film like Lights Out. Break even on that is going to be $40-50M domestic.

This particular film will recoup that from the Theatrical cut alone (with additional money to be made on streaming and home media), but it takes like 10-20 of these types of films to hit the profit levels of something like Zootopia, Civil War, or Secret Life of Pets. That's why everyone chases the blockbusters.

This is true. It would take a bunch of films to make-up the massive financial windfall those movies bring. But most studios simply aren't capable of creating that level of success for their IPs. Instead of chasing Civil War or Zootopia money, they should diversify their offerings. Maybe produce a couple of $5 million horror movies. Do a couple of Jack Reacher or Taken level action movies. Just build up a nice slate of reliable, low-risk releases, instead of channeling everything into a huge bomba that could sink the studio.
 

kswiston

Member
This is true. It would take a bunch of films to make-up the massive financial windfall those movies bring. But most studios simply aren't capable of creating that level of success for their IPs. Instead of chasing Civil War or Zootopia money, they should diversify their offerings. Maybe produce a couple of $5 million horror movies. Do a couple of Jack Reacher or Taken level action movies. Just build up a nice slate of reliable, low-risk releases, instead of channeling everything into a huge bomba that could sink the studio.

Sony, Paramount, and others have been learning that the hard way the past few years. Few major studios are in Disney's position where they can absorb a couple of Alice level flops a year thanks to their guaranteed hits. They are pretty much the only studio that could drop everything other than tentpole films and still make out well. At least until Marvel and Star Wars cool down.
 

kswiston

Member
Weekend Studio Estimates

1) Star Trek Beyond - $59.6M
2) The Secret Life of Pets - $29.3M - $260M total
3) Lights Out - $21.6M
4) Ghostbusters - $21.6M - $87M total
5) Ice Age: Collision Course - $21.0M
6) Finding Dory - $7.2M - $460M total (9th of all time)
7) The Legend of Tarzan - $6.4M - $116M total
8) Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates - $4.4M - $40M total
9) Hilary's America - $3.7M
10) The Infiltrator - $3.3M - $12M total

- Evening Saturday shows for Star Trek weren't as strong as earlier shows suggested. Still, I think that Paramount's Sunday is conservative. I could see the actuals peaking over $60M

- Finding Dory is now at $782M worldwide.
 

kswiston

Member
That's for the entire weekend?

No, I copied and pasted the format from my post on Friday's numbers. We're still waiting on Ghostbusters

EDIT: Ghostbusters did well on Saturday. It will end up in the same range as Lights Out and Ice Age. As such, it might be #3 or #4 depending on the Sunday estimate.
 

Sulik2

Member
So did the box office just recalibrate this summer to more reasonable opening weekend totals or were the movies just that bad this year? I think its a little of both personally.
 

kswiston

Member
So did the box office just recalibrate this summer to more reasonable opening weekend totals or were the movies just that bad this year? I think its a little of both personally.

Last year just messed with expectations. We have had three films open over $100M and Suicide Squad is widely believed to be heading there as well. In 2014, nothing hit that mark other than Transformers 4, which several independent trackers claimed Paramount fudged over $100M.
 

kswiston

Member
$21.6M for Ghostbusters this weekend, down a better than expected 53% (though Sony went with the best Sunday hold in the top 10 after Star Trek, so expect a drop in the actuals tomorrow)

Ice Age: Collision Course scored the 8th best weekend for an Ice Age film, behind the second weekends for the first three films, and narrowly ahead of the fourth film's second weekend and the second film's third weekend.
 

JABEE

Member
Why are film studios willing to take chances on low budget horror films, but won't do the same for Action/Thriller films?

You can't continue to make Ghostbusters, Star Wars, and Terminator forever.

At some point in time, those intellectual properties were new and someone took a chance on them. It seems fairly shortsighted. Maybe studios are funding those kinds of movies, but they aren't good enough to get distribution.
 
I liked Ghostbusters, but it had a lot of problems. I'm not sure it would have run away with the box office even if fanboys hadn't rejected it. Probably would have had a better first week though.
 

kmag

Member
Why are film studios willing to take chances on low budget horror films, but won't do the same for Action/Thriller films?

You can't continue to make Ghostbusters, Star Wars, and Terminator forever.

At some point in time, those intellectual properties were new and someone took a chance on them. It seems fairly shortsighted. Maybe studios are funding those kinds of movies, but they aren't good enough to get distribution.

Track record of success. Any competently made low to med budget horror with a half way attractive premise seems to be able to turn a profit. They tend to be pretty cheap to make. Low to med budget action films have been spotty for a while now. I mean there's a constant stream of DTV action movies which just sink.
 
3 Ghostbusters (2016) Sony $21,600,000
4 Lights Out WB (NL) $21,600,000
5 Ice Age: Collision Course Fox $21,000,000


Damn that is neck and neck lol
 

JABEE

Member
One of these three will in fact continue to be made for forever.

You're right. My point is that it's strange that there aren't attempts at making "Horror" budget films with the same distribution these small horror films have.

When you hit with something like Saw, you can make tons of money in the same way that you hit with other IP. Maybe I don't understand the differences in budget requited to make non-horror films.

You would think smaller non R-rated films would have more appeal.
 

3N16MA

Banned
Ice Age 5 got hammered. It's on the same level as Norm of the North in terms of the reception by critics.

The series will live on with straight to video sequels. They can dump the entire voice cast and get cheaper alternatives.
 

FTF

Member
Ice Age 5 got hammered. It's on the same level as Norm of the North in terms of the reception by critics.

The series will live on with straight to video sequels. They can dump the entire voice cast and get cheaper alternatives.

Holy shit I didn't even realize this was the 5th one. Was going to say 4th, maybe 3rd lol.
 
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