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[kswiston]

Star Trek Beyond has been tracking in the $55-65M range for months, so at the very least this can't be much of a shock for Paramount. They are likely hoping that the good reviews/WOM will lead to a leggy run like Rogue Nation last year ($55M OW/$195M total).


Ice Age is this week's disaster.

 

[Ridley327]

It looks like early weekend predictions for Star Trek Beyond are in the $60M range.

This summer has been so shitty for live action movies, that anything over $65.8M would be the second biggest live action opening of the season after Civil War twelve weeks ago.


The Conjuring 2 is now over $300M worldwide. Deadline pointed out that the series (consisting of two films and the spin-off Anabelle) is now the third largest horror franchise of all time at $882M worldwide. The only series ahead of it are Resident Evil (lol) at $915M and Paranormal Activity at $890M. The Conjuring will be the biggest horror series of all time when Anabelle 2 releases next year.

The Conjuring 1 (at $318M) and The Conjuring 2 are also the second and third highest grossing individual horror films of all time after The original Exorcist.

I think that demonstrates horror films are generally low budget affairs. Spending $100M on one would be pretty stupid.

The very, very hard lesson Dreamworks found out about with their remake of The Haunting that was also responsible for landing Jan De Bont in perpetual director jail.

 

[The Hobo]

Moviegoers are being harsh this year. Guess they're tired of constant sequels and reboots.

 

[Sean C]

Moviegoers are being harsh this year. Guess they're tired of constant sequels and reboots.

When you consider that all of the most successful movies fit that description (except Zootopia, but children's animated films have always been the exception to the prevailing trend against wholly original properties, because they have, in effect, a studio brand instead), though, that logic doesn't hold up.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

What's the OW and LTD expectation for Suicide Squad, Dr. Strange, and Rogue One?

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

Moviegoers are being harsh this year. Guess they're tired of constant sequels and reboots.

I think they're getting tired of bad sequels and reboots.

 

[kswiston]

What's the OW and LTD expectation for Suicide Squad, Dr. Strange, and Rogue One?

Suicide Squad is tracking to open in the $125M range, which would likely mean over $300M domestic.

The other two are too far away for that sort of thing to be meaningful.

I think they're getting tired of bad sequels and reboots.

Ya, we are seeing a pretty thorough rejection of shitty/unnecessary films that were expected to do well based on their brands alone.

 

[Alrus]

The very, very hard lesson Dreamworks found out about with their remake of The Haunting that was also responsible for landing Jan De Bont in perpetual director jail.

Another example would be the 2010 Wolfman remake, would made decent money for a horror film but costs an absolutely insane amount of money (something like 150M iirc)

 

[Ridley327]

Another example would be the 2010 Wolfman remake, would made decent money for a horror film but costs an absolutely insane amount of money (something like 150M iirc)

Yeah, the production hell it went through ballooned that budget to summer blockbuster levels. And yet, it got taken back behind the February dump shed and shot.

At least it's an Academy Award-winning film!

 

[The Hobo]

I think they're getting tired of bad sequels and reboots.

Yeah, that's fair to say.

 

[Obliterator]

What's the OW and LTD expectation for Suicide Squad, Dr. Strange, and Rogue One?

Suicide Squad is probably the $250 - $300 million range

Rogue One I would have to think they want around the 1B range given the size of the property Edit - World wide estimate here. Not sure what they would expect for domestic

Strange since it's a new launch for Marvel it can't be super high. I'm thinking they are expecting $175 - $200 million. Thats in line with a lot of their properties including Ant-Man, the original Captain America, Thor, etc. Though I'm sure they are hoping for a breakout like Guardians but they will be comfortable with that prior range

 

[MHWilliams]

So how is a 55-60 million opening for Star Trek? Is that solid or an underperformamce? I'm not super clear what the expectations for this film are. I'm going to see it today and have heard it's great so I want to see it do well

Much like Ghostbusters, it's right in line with expectations. I'm sure Paramount wanted more, but this isn't a loss.

 

[BronsonLee]

Beyond was goooood

 

[CadetMahoney]

I always thought that the Chinese ban was on skeletons, not ghosts. And there was a source that said China wasn't allowing the film because they didn't think it'd be profitable.

What would happen if a film was released in China, but had a secret shammy twist at the end that it was really a ghost. . . but it was really obscure that no one questioned it.

Then shammy says years later it's was a ghost. Kinda like Blade Runner Director saying something about Deckard being a replicant.

 

[kswiston]

Superhero films are currently at $1.255B domestic and $3.34B worldwide for the year to date. Conservative numbers will put that at $1.7B domestic and $4.25B WW by the end of the year based on Suicide Squad tracking and typical low end MCU numbers.

That easily surpasses both 2012 and 2014, which were the two peak years for Superhero films prior to 2016. We might not see Avengers (2012) numbers for a single film again any time soon, but people are still laying down their cinema money.

That, along with everything else in the non-talking animal genres disappointing this year, probably won't do much to hold back the glut of superhero films going forward.

 

[MHWilliams]

This year is shaping up well for Horror too. The magic of tiny budgets and solid box office helps. Conjuring 2 did great, Lights Out cleared its budget is one day, and the handling of Blair Witch seems to have given the film some heat.

Super heroes, talking animals, and horror.

 

[vinnygambini]

Blair Witch will do well I think too, continuing the winning streak of horror.

 

[jett]

lul at ice age.

That won't be the end of the franchise though. You can look forward to endless direct-to-video sequels.

 

[CartridgeBlower]

Conjuring 2 did well, but it was still off almost 40% from the first one domestically. Wasn't the first one's take 140, and the second just about 100? Still profitable but that's a sizeable decline. It's just all the other sequels this summer did so much worse that C2's box office drop doesn't stick out as much.

 

[kswiston]

This year is shaping up well for Horror too. The magic of tiny budgets and solid box office helps. Conjuring 2 did great, Lights Out cleared its budget is one day, and the handling of Blair Witch seems to have given the film some heat.

Super heroes, talking animals, and horror.

I guess it was more of a thriller than a horror film, but 10 Cloverfield Lane also did really well. The Shallows did decently for itself as well.

Conjuring 2 did well, but it was still off almost 40% from the first one domestically. Wasn't the first one's take 140, and the second just about 100? Still profitable but that's a sizeable decline. It's just all the other sequels this summer did so much worse that C2's box office drop doesn't stick out as much.

Worldwide made up the difference.

 

[Calm waterfall]

This year is shaping up well for Horror too. The magic of tiny budgets and solid box office helps. Conjuring 2 did great, Lights Out cleared its budget is one day, and the handling of Blair Witch seems to have given the film some heat.

Super heroes, talking animals, and horror.

Horror movies that have a budget between 2-10 million are a goldmine for distributors, which makes me wonder why there are not more of them.

 

[jett]

The very, very hard lesson Dreamworks found out about with their remake of The Haunting that was also responsible for landing Jan De Bont in perpetual director jail.

Well he also made Speed 2 before that one, and his next movie was Tomb Raider 2. The Haunting actually made more money than either of those haha.

 

[Gentleman Jack]

Solid. It's also co-produced by Alibaba films, and I would suspect is headed to good returns in China.

Are they going to change the music to local Chinese pop hits for the climactic scenes?

Also I'm a little surprised that there have only been 4 ice age movies considering how old the franchise is.

 

[Calm waterfall]

lul at ice age.

That won't be the end of the franchise though. You can look forward to endless direct-to-video sequels.

Worldwide: $142,723,348


Budget is only $105 million. This movie will be profitable, and you will see a sequel theatrical release. The total for this week is not updated yet.

 

[3N16MA]

GAF needs to raise a few million and make our own horror film.

Arguing over everything will delay the film by 12 years.

 

[John Dunbar]

GAF needs to raise a few million and make our own horror film.

Arguing over everything will delay the film by 12 years.

it's going to be the boyhood of horror movies.

 

[jett]

Worldwide: $142,723,348


Budget is only $105 million. This movie will be profitable, and you will see a sequel theatrical release. The total for this week is not updated yet.

Probably. But eventually, the endless DTV sequels will happen either way.

 

[vinnygambini]

GAF needs to raise a few million and make our own horror film.

Arguing over everything will delay the film by 12 years.

First order of business: It needs Alexander Skasgard abs on screen.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

Maybe.

Domestically, the first 4 Ice Age films were all in the $160M and $195M range (rounded). Ice Age 5 is likely going to finish closer to $75M.

2016 really seems to be the year that audiences turn their noses up at (shitty) unnecessary sequels. I am curious to see how Transformers 5 does next summer.

I feel audiences are just getting stingier with what movies to go to now that there is other, more cheaper entertainment choices.

I mean, have you seen movie ticket prices lately? And don't even get me started on food at the concession stand.

(Cue laughtrack)

 

[kswiston]

Profitability isn't the only requirement for a film getting a sequel, especially in the case of Ice Age where Blue Sky's nearly $900M series is shrinking to something closer to $500M in the course of one film. The voice cast isn't going to get cheaper, and the animation is already budget quality. Do they risk the next one doing $300M with next to nothing from the domestic market (which still accounts for most ancillary revenue)?

I feel audiences are just getting stingier with what movies to go to now that there is other, more cheaper entertainment choices.

I mean, have you seen movie ticket prices lately? And don't even get me started on food at the concession stand.

(Cue laughtrack)

Movie ticket prices aren't that much higher than they were 5 years ago, and audience drop off has been minimal in that time. What we have been seeing this year (and last year) is the same sort of thing we saw happen to the console game market. Instead of supporting a wide variety of mid-budget products, everyone is seeing the same 10 or so mega-blockbusters.

 

[MHWilliams]

Conjuring 2 did well, but it was still off almost 40% from the first one domestically. Wasn't the first one's take 140, and the second just about 100? Still profitable but that's a sizeable decline. It's just all the other sequels this summer did so much worse that C2's box office drop doesn't stick out as much.

It's around $30 million off domestically, but only $17 million worldwide. Regardless, the budget doubled from $20 to $40 million, but it'll still pure profit. Spending $40 million to make $150 million in revenue is good business.

See also: Paranormal Activity, which had a strong downward trend, but kept going because of the profitability of horror.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Did Finding Dory underperform overseas or what? Finding Nemo did 560M overseas, and Dory is at 276M.

 

[Gandie]

Did Finding Dory underperform overseas or what? Finding Nemo did 560M overseas, and Dory is at 276M.

Still not out in a lot of territories. September in Germany for example.

 

[Alrus]

This year is shaping up well for Horror too. The magic of tiny budgets and solid box office helps. Conjuring 2 did great, Lights Out cleared its budget is one day, and the handling of Blair Witch seems to have given the film some heat.

Purge 3 also did very well despite opening lower than the previous 2 movies.

Yeah, the production hell it went through ballooned that budget to summer blockbuster levels. And yet, it got taken back behind the February dump shed and shot.

I don't think it could have made much more than it did no matter when it released tbh, with a budget like that there was no way they were going to make anything off it.

 

[WordAssassin]

That's nothing.

Imagine working on the Ice Age movies for 15 years.

Yeah how terrible it must be for all those people in the fickle animation industry to have steady jobs for that long

 

[Sibersk Esto]

So how harsh is that Ghostbusters drop?

 

[Saucycarpdog]

Movie ticket prices aren't that much higher than they were 5 years ago, and audience drop off has been minimal in that time. What we have been seeing this year (and last year) is the same sort of thing we saw happen to the console game market. Instead of supporting a wide variety of mid-budget products, everyone is seeing the same 10 or so mega-blockbusters.

And I'm sure like the console market, people are going to eventually start wanting and supporting new projects. It just requires the right idea with the right amount of hype.

 

[Smokey_Run]

What are the predictions for Bourne next weekend?

 

[kswiston]

So how harsh is that Ghostbusters drop?

Somewhere in the 55-60% range depending on Saturday's bump.



Rth is hinting at an increase on Saturday for Star Trek. Anything over 21.5M (a slight decrease over Friday+previews) would give the film at least $60M this weekend.

 

[The Hobo]

Yeah how terrible it must be for all those people in the fickle animation industry to have steady jobs for that long

True dat. The Ice Age films may not be the most creatively engaging movies to work on, but I'm sure those working on them are grateful for steady work.

I wonder how many jobs would be lost if the series goes direct-to-DVD though.

 

[Obliterator]

Man Star Trek Beyond was excellent. Saw it today and had a great time. Super glad they already confirmed we are getting a 4th film.

I won't be surprised if Saturday is really good for it. My showing at 4pm was packed

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Somewhere in the 55-60% range depending on Saturday's bump.

Is it enough to be the biggest bomba of the year? That's what I predicted in another thread and I would hate to be wrong.

 

[MrPink93485]

Is it enough to be the biggest bomba of the year? That's what I predicted in another thread and I would hate to be wrong.

Thinking that title will belong to Alice Through the Looking Glass unless I'm forgetting something else.

 

[RedRum]

Saw Trek and ID4 this weekend. Trek was better than I thought it would be. Some cheesy moments, but overall good.

As for ID4... what the fuck...

 

[Edwins]

Ghostbusters isn't the biggest flop of the year, no. It isn't looking to make any profit at the box office, though. Movies like Alice and Gods of Egypt had it worse.

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

Ghostbusters isn't the biggest flop of the year, no. It isn't looking to make any profit at the box office, though. Movies like Alice and Gods of Egypt had it worse.

I called Gods of Egypt and Tarzan as being bombs, glad to be half right.

 

[The Hobo]

I didn't expect Ghostbusters to do this badly, to be honest. I figured it would struggle somewhat but not like this.

 

[kurahador]

Star Trek is so much fun. Go watch it guys. I didn't really like the last 2, so Beyond is the best entry for me.

 

[BassForever]

I didn't expect Ghostbusters to do this badly, to be honest. I figured it would struggle somewhat but not like this.

The film had everything going against it, even if the "eww women ghostbusters" people hadn't started the second the announcement happened Sony never seemed to have the pulse of the passionate gb fanbase and seemed to try and isolate them with almost every decision during the films development and promotional stuff. You had general movie going audiences with the "fuck another remake that looks bad basd upon the trailer" the fanbase going "this is not my ghostbusters rip harold ramis at least we got ecto cooler and new classic gb toys" And of course the war between "your mysognistic" "your a feminist" which made discussion so toxic it put off a lot of people from wanting to discuss or see the film for fear of being labeled. Combo that with the widespread plot leaks that matched the trailer (and confirmed the finale of destroying the ghostbusters logo ghost) and not being a continuation with the old cast like star wars 7 and you had a film that at best could break even but considering sony wanted gbcu to happen they made almost every decidion wrong.

 

[womfalcs3]

Ice Age failed domestically. They will probably still break even, looking at the international numbers. The movie hasn't opened in China, and has grossed 134 million already. If it can reach 300 million worldwide, it won't be as bad.