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December 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
CosmicQueso
Member
Alright... Which had the worst December? FH2, the crew, or driveclub? I'm having a hard time picking just one as being worst.
Oh yeah, that could be bad. Did we get sales of Watch Dogs WiiU?
Chobel
Member
Definitely Driveclub, it's no competition really. Which had the second worst December? Now that's hard.
SwiftDeath
Member
The Crew was available on 3 platforms versus FH2 which is solely on 1. Even with what I imagine to be terrible numbers it should easily surpass 3rd month sales of FH2 considering it's first month sales weren't particularly stellar
With the XB1 back to $399 and the PS4 offering a free copy of TLOU, I think the gap will be bigger than it was last January.
Forza Horizon 2 is on Xbox One and 360.
Last January, the XB1 entry price was at $500 and the PS4 was at $400. This January, the XB1 entry price is at $400 and the PS4 is at $400. Free games of ACU and TLOU mixed in there somewhere. Would seem to make some difference, unless the thought is that XB1 will crash harder than it did last January.
LOL, really? It was $499 this time last year? Shit, I'm forgetful as hell. In that case, I wouldn't be so sure about my statement above but I wouldn't be surprised if that was true. We do have evidence by fellow Gaffers that thousands of X1 are just sitting in stores and warehouses after all
SwiftDeath
Member
Ah I did forget about that. A bit of a more interesting comparison but it's still FH2's 3rd month versus The Crew's first month. We'll see I guess
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I'm of the opinion that One is going to crater to almost WiiUvian levels.
Last year the only price you knew you could get One at was $499. This year at $399 you know you just missed $349 and as good as $329 with games.
That's a newly minted psychological barrier MS is going to have to pierce through in the new year. I think it could potentially be a very hard fall for the first half of the year if they aren't forced to change their pricing again sooner than later.
It's totally possible I'm being alarmist. But I like to dabble in extremes. I've got one of the higher One predictions in the NPD Dec prediction thread, and subsequently expect the largest dropoff.
We'll see though!
It could be just as crazy as my pre-generation expectation of absolutely insane WiiU sales.
Yeah, I would be really surprised if January is close to a 2:1 like last year.
RealityPales
Member
These are always so much fun.
No way. While a site like Amazon usually reflects hardcore preferences, retailers frequented by casuals like Target do not react as quickly. I think Xbox One momentum in retail stores will stay strong for January.
In all honesty it's up in the air. I do however have no doubt that February is in Sony's bag and beyond that until E3 2015.
Yep
Last week
PS4 - 16th
XB1 AC bundle - 40th
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-01-05/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar#5
This week so far -
PS4 - 6th
XB1 AC bundle - 34th
XB1 - 95th
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-01-12/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bsar
Aquamarine
Member
14 hours remaining until npd numbers
we'll see how the situation unfolds
maybe there will be random pokemon anime videos posted for no particular reason
we'll see how the situation unfolds
maybe there will be random pokemon anime videos posted for no particular reason
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Aquamarine
Member
楽しみにしてください〜 (`･ω･´)
Chobel
Member
FH2 looks like it has good legs, it started with 120K in Sept NPD which we can agree it's kinda bad, however its LTD by November was 300K.
Driveclub. They're not giving it away in America like they are in the UK. It was dead on arrival here and nothing has changed since.
Aquamarine
Member
i'll take driveclub for $100, alex
Nightengale
Member
November amazon had xbox one a higher ranking then ps4 and the results in NPD showed that, same with DEC and basing on the ranking xbox one will take DEC too. I think amazon is a good indicator.
Edit: I am a full member, woo!
i believe amazon rankings have been correct for the winner each month. can't remember any month where it wasn't.
Dragonborn
Member
The X1 is going to crash so hard this month. Ms should know that they cannot hope to compete at the same price. Only reason they did so well the last two months was because they were upwards of 100 bucks cheaper (plus free AC). They need to be cheaper otherwise there's little reason for the average consumer to pick it over a PS4.
Ps4 had some stock issues though last january if i'm not mistaken. So hard to compare anyway
It was 19 bucks.
Napalm_Frank
Member
I hope we get insider info on KH2.5 performance. It bombed in JP and EU compared to the first collection and I expect NA to be the worst considering the PS3 exclusivity. Never change SE.
But as the topic is on hardware I expect PS4 and XBO to be very close with XBO on the lead.
But as the topic is on hardware I expect PS4 and XBO to be very close with XBO on the lead.
Orthogonal
Member
I don't think that is terribly surprising. The bundle/pricedrop time shifted a lot of sales. It was a very successful holiday season at the expense of early 2015. I think they come out on top even with this slowdown. It proved that it can move systems if they price it right.
Yeah MS is going to tank the first few months of 2015 until the price drop becomes 'old news' and forgotten. I doubt MS will even be competing in sales until like April, even then PS4 will likely still win, just not by as much.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Please excuse my ignorance, but what is happening in April? If it is just after Sony's first party releases in February and March, then won't the PS4 still continue to do better with 3rd party releases?
Chobel
Member
Good luck with that.
No, it was just a random month I predict the xbox sales start to stabilize from the price drop. I expect anyone who planned to buy it in the very early months of 2015 would have just bought it while it was on a discount, but April imo seems deep enough into the year for the price drop effect to start recovering and for people to forget/not care that it was cheaper a few month before.
No real meaning behind it, just seems like a good month for people to start picking up xbox at it's normal rate again. I mean, I don't think the sales will stay complete shit until the next price drop, sure some people will wait but I think if you wanted to pick it up then you would there and then, not wait 6+ months in hopes of a price cut
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Ok, that makes sense^^ I was afraid I missed something like a date for Fable Legends or something like that^^
Whatever momentum Microsoft built with the X1 during the holiday season was crushed when they raised the price back up to $399. To add insult to injury, the next time they cut the price to $349 again, there will be significantly less interest.
It's weird that in the UK it's the highest selling retail exclusive of 2014
In the US it looks like it may have struggled to sell 2014 units :/
The Last One
Member
There was no damage control by MS, so that's already a given.
Come out on top in what terms? In January? No chances at all. December? Of course.
Speaking of PR statements, I am still having a hard time believing that Sony used that "but PS4 was #1 during Black Friday on Amazon" statement.
Welfare
Member
Oh they are so going to use that again http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-12-22/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
CosmicQueso
Member
Sounds like a consensus... but I want to believe that The Crew can do it. Sad that this is the thing I'm most interested in seeing in today's data. That and wondering if PS3 can break 100k. Ugh.