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[Aquamarine]

bumped up my xbox one prediction from 1258k to 1358k

and my ps4 prediction from 1046k to 1146k

i had a feeling that i was lowballing just a little too much


also, only 2 hours left to predict, guys

It's baffling they raised the price back up at all. Once you've effectively conditioned customers to expect a lower price point over that long of a period of time you can't bump it back up. It just doesn't work. Basic psychology of sales/marketing 101. Sales slowdowns in this circumstance are a bit like seeing massive stormclouds and predicting rain.

and we're talking about the usa retail hardware market, where consumers are *especially* sensitive to price fluctuations

price elasticity of demand is enormous for video game consoles

 

[vpance]

It's baffling they raised the price back up at all. Once you've effectively conditioned customers to expect a lower price point over that long of a period of time you can't bump it back up. It just doesn't work. Basic psychology of sales/marketing 101. Sales slowdowns in this circumstance are a bit like seeing massive stormclouds and predicting rain.

I imagine they want to see what the net effect of the holiday discounts would be, to see if there was any significant momentum change. If not that, then for legal reasons of promoting a limited time offer.

 

[PhatSaqs]

I see the X1 Amazon reign is over. Now back to our regularly scheduled PS4 beatdowns.

 

[RBK]

I mean...

15th and 16th is literally neck and neck.

 

[donny2112]

bumped up my xbox one prediction from 1258k to 1358k

and my ps4 prediction from 1046k to 1146k

i had a feeling that i was lowballing just a little too much

I dropped mine a little to more match GameStop's ~30% increase in Next-Gen hardware compared to last December.

Demand for next generation hardware continues to be strong demonstrated by the 31.3% increase in units sold in December 2014 compared to December 2013

http://investor.gamestop.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=130125&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2007374

Edit:
And dropped a little on 3DS. Figure maybe an overly underwhelming December is pushing up the release of n3DS in the U.S.

 

[cakely]

I mean...

15th and 16th is literally neck and neck.

Yesterday January showed Xbox One at #9 and the Playstation 4 at #17.

AFAIK, this is the first time since November that the Playstation 4 has been ahead in a monthly ranking.

 

[Aquamarine]

I mean...

15th and 16th is literally neck and neck.

and it's only january 13th

plenty of time for the ps4 to pull further ahead

 

[Welfare]

Out of curiosity, what kind of bundle at $399 would help them you think?

I don't really see anything that would be cost effective (after the $$ bleed of Nov-Dec) aside from FH2 or MCC.

FH2 looks to be an excellent game, but racers don't have that much pull outside of Europe these days.

So ... MCC bundle? Not sure that anyone that loves Halo that much would not already have a XB1 though, but it would be a pretty good value for sure.

Forza Horizon 2 or Sunset Overdrive. Maybe if Ori is released soon MS could have that as a pack in as well.

 

[RBK]

and it's only january 13th

plenty of time for the ps4 to pull further ahead

Pretty much.

The hourly charts aren't looking too good for MS. #5 for PS4, #20 for XB1.

 

[Ty4on]

[360] 300k
[3DS] 700k
[PS3] 140k
[PS4] 1050k
[WIU] 440k
[XB1] 1300k

I don't want to believe it myself, but PS4 and XB1 numbers are so obviously stolen from Aqua
Traditionally December has been way bigger than November, but it seems to have turned a bit so I wanted to go 100k lower on both PS4 and XB1. Then I looked at the 07 numbers and those felt too low.

Edit:

I dropped mine a little to more match GameStop's ~30% increase in Next-Gen hardware compared to last December.

I've not followed stuff very closely this time, so thanks!

 

[theprodigy]

I dropped mine a little to more match GameStop's ~30% increase in Next-Gen hardware compared to last December.


http://investor.gamestop.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=130125&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2007374

Edit:
And dropped a little on 3DS. Figure maybe an overly underwhelming December is pushing up the release of n3DS in the U.S.

hmmm....wonder if Gamestop might just have a lower share this time compared to last year due to all the crazy deals elsewhere

 

[ZhugeEX]

bumped up my xbox one prediction from 1258k to 1358k

and my ps4 prediction from 1046k to 1146k

PS4 up by 100k, Xbox up by 100k, Wii U..... um.....

In all seriousness I think this December is going to be very close to last month for the Xbox One and the gap between PS4 and X1 will be much smaller than before.

Only a short time remaining now!

 

[Bruno MB]

How many 3DS systems were sold during last December? I have around a million units but that was a round figure. It would be nice to have something more concrete.

 

[allan-bh]

How many 3DS systems were sold during last December? I have around a million units but that was a round figure. It would be nice to have something more concrete.

Round figure is 1.1 million.

Don't know how close is to the actual number.

 

[3rdamention]

I see the X1 Amazon reign is over. Now back to our regularly scheduled PS4 beatdowns.

I have noticed it has been doing pretty well in the Hourly Best Sellers in VideoGames the last week or so. And today, I see it passed the Xbox One for Best Sellers of 2015. That is the first time I have seen the PS4 ahead of the Xbox One in the 2015 Best Sellers (which is basically the January Best Sellers Chart). It has been significantly behind the Xbox One most of this month.


I am sure this new promo Sony is running, with The Last of Us now included in the Standard PS4 Bundles is also going to help.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Has anything leaked yet?

 

[samar11]

I stay away from them type of threads after I got banned for asking a question.

Link to thread ? lol

 

[Thunder Monkey]

[360] 395k
[3DS] 785k
[PS3] 200k
[PS4] 1200k
[WIU] 455k
[XB1] 1575k

I never do this anymore so why not.

 

[allan-bh]

Has anything leaked yet?

NPD data is not out yet.

 

[Aquamarine]

Has anything leaked yet?

the npd release is on thursday

Round figure is 1.1 million.

Don't know how close is to the actual number.

well, you know the real number isn't going to be significantly more, otherwise somebody would have said something

 

[JohnnyFootball]

NPD data is not out yet.

Yes, but someone surely could have hinted which way it will go.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Wow, everyone's Wii U predictions are all over the place. Interesting.

 

[Conduit]

[PS4] 750k
[XB1] 600k
[PS3] 70k
[360] 200k
[WIU] 150k
[3DS] 300k
[PSV] 80k

I will edit my previous prediction :


[PS4] 1150k
[XB1] 1050k
[PS3] 70k
[360] 200k
[WIU] 150k
[3DS] 300k
[PSV] 80k

 

[Aquamarine]

Yes, but someone surely could have hinted which way it will go.

we're talking about access to early npd data before release.

yeah...that kind of leak isn't going to happen here on gaf.

 

[samar11]

Some very good advice for staying safe on NeoGAF. I've been using this forum for something like over a decade now; lurking for most of that time but still I learned a lot. If you see a thread where you have an opinion that's likely to enrage people and generate fire; it's always best to just evade the thread and not participate.

Getting back on-topic: Microsoft will almost certainly win the month but it'll be PS4 domination for the foreseeable future until Microsoft becomes competitive again. IMO they really should have made that price cut permanent. The price increase is just going to kill their momentum until E3. Hopefully they'll see their numbers plummet and actually do something to react.

Definitely going to be an interesting year. MS seem determined to take the NA market.

IF they were so determined they wouldn't of put the price back up lol

 

[Bruno MB]

Round figure is 1.1 million.

Don't know how close is to the actual number.

I didn't follow the entire thread and I missed that new estimate. I think the preliminary figure was 1 million. The drop was softer than I thought.

December 2011 - 1.60 million
December 2012 - 1.25 million
December 2013 - 1.10 million
December 2014 - ?

For this December I have predicted 745,000 units.

 

[Welfare]

we're talking about access to early npd data before release.

yeah...that kind of leak isn't going to happen here on gaf.

But about about people on GAFGold?

 

[doicare]

[360] 340k
[3DS] 775k
[PS3] 110k
[PS4] 1100k
[WIU] 500k
[XB1] 1250k

 

[allan-bh]

Probably mid February.

They should introduce a new bundle for $399 and sell the console alone for $349.

But probably they will only set a new bundle.

 

[samar11]

I mean...

15th and 16th is literally neck and neck.

There is still 3 weeks left for ps4 to keep climbing up

 

[donny2112]

IF they were so determined they wouldn't of put the price back up lol

It's all psychological. That way when they announce a $299 SKU at E3, it's a $100 drop instead of a $50 one. They won't lose more ground at $399 for Jan-May than they gained from Nov+Dec wins (I think).

 

[samar11]

Guys, is the new TLOU bundle replacing the standard SKU or is this for a limited time? I am confused :/

 

[Chobel]

Wii U vs 360? Who do you think is gonna win guys?

That's the only thing I'm struggling with now, I really don't want to lose that 10 point.

 

[GamerJM]

Wii U vs 360? Who do you think is gonna win guys?

That's the only thing I'm struggling with now, I really don't want to lose that 10 point.

I went with 360 but that was a tough choice to make imo

I feel like they're gonna be close either way

 

[allan-bh]

It's all psychological. That way when they announce a $299 SKU at E3, it's a $100 drop instead of a $50 one. They won't lose more ground at $399 for Jan-May than they gained from Nov+Dec wins (I think).

5 months is a relatively long period for $399, unless the mindshare about Xbox One changed after winning in holidays.

 

[allan-bh]

Wii U vs 360? Who do you think is gonna win guys?

That's the only thing I'm struggling with now, I really don't want to lose that 10 point.

Wii U.

360 won november because of black friday.

 

[Mrbob]

It's all psychological. That way when they announce a $299 SKU at E3, it's a $100 drop instead of a $50 one. They won't lose more ground at $399 for Jan-May than they gained from Nov+Dec wins (I think).

I'm thinking this way too. However with all the Black Friday specials I don't believe MS gets as big of a bump at $299 because of last holidays blowout pricing. On the contrary, Sony should receive a really nice bump at $299 since they didn't discount as heavily.

I don't see any price cuts until at least September though. No point in price cutting in June, too slow of a month.

 

[Bruno MB]

Less than 30 minutes left.

That means that it's time to adjust

Spoiler

(mess up)

our predictions.

For once I'm 100% satisfied with my numbers, let's see how things will play out.

 

[Chobel]

Wii U.

360 won november because of black friday.

OK then, I'm gonna stick with my Wii U prediction.

 

[A_Gorilla]

5 months is a relatively long period for $399, unless the mindshare about Xbox One changed after winning in holidays.

Current Amazon ranking suggests whatever momentum the XB1 had is being killed off...

 

[miDnIghtEr20C]

My prediction.....


Let's make it 2 months in a row for the X1.

 

[donny2112]

360 won november because of black friday.

Think it had a $99 sale, too. Had one last year, too (I think), and 360 dropped Nov -> Dec.

 

[Aquamarine]

time's up to predict or change predictions

it's now 8:01 pm.


predictions closed at 8:00 pm.



npd numbers are almost here guys

 

[Bruno MB]

What's done is done.

Good luck to everybody on the last prediction of 2014 edition.

 

[PoweredByHentai]

I will edit my previous prediction :


[PS4] 1150
[XB1] 1050k
[PS3] 70k
[360] 200k
[WIU] 150k
[3DS] 300k
[PSV] 80k

I think you are missing a K in there.

 

[Cornbread78]

PS4: 1151k
XB1: 1450k
WiU: 550k
3DS: 500
PS3: 200k
360: 300k

 

[Chobel]

I think you are missing a K in there.

Not only that, he also has two predictions in this thread, one in the first page and one in this page. How do you handle situations like this donny?

PS4: 1151k
XB1: 1450k
WiU: 550k
3DS: 500
PS3: 200k
360: 300k

You're too late, plus the format is wrong.

 

[PoweredByHentai]

Not only that, he also has two predictions in this thread, one in the first page and one in this page. How do you handle situations like this donny?



You're too late, plus the format is wrong.

He says that it's an edit/revision though.

 

[Welfare]

I just want to be in top 10 units this month. Maybe even get to the top 40 in overall points.

 

[Elandyll]

There is still 3 weeks left for ps4 to keep climbing up

Amazon actually just updated their monthly with what was happening over the last week or so. With the current hourly trend (PS4 #5, XB1 #20) the ranking will continue to increase for PS4 and decrease for XB1. The new PS4 bundle will probably help it as well, and the XB1 hasn't even hit its current retail price yet on Amazon (current $379-$389), so unless theres a big change, and talking specifically about Amazon rankings, we're definitely seeing a return to pre November.