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[shinra-bansho]

That's the question alright, but there are no other options.

Consumers are speaking loudly right now. The big games are not only selling more than in prior years, but people are also paying much more for Deluxe Editions with season passes and CEs.

So total spend at launch for the biggest titles is well above $60 now.

And the mid-tier titles with no season pass or DLC packages are doing very poorly. They sell fewer units with lower average pricing.

And don't forget, with Digital becoming higher and higher share of Day 1 (25-30%) and over the life of a product, that helps with profitability.

So is it sustainable? Maybe. Fewer titles, higher average pricing due to inclusion of add on content and digital distribution rather than play and trade.

On the other hand, consumers could reject all this, or streaming could take off, or subscription models could replace purchase models... All I know is that whatever we think the market will look like in 10 years will be nothing like what the market actually ends up being.

Long post, yikes.

I think that everyone will agree to the bolded. It is always fun to muse on it though.

I can actually see quite easily how the "mainstream consumer," that which buys a few titles a year would be perfectly satisfied 1) sticking to their trusted brands and 2) spending a bit more on those trusted brands.

It's also interesting that while on here sometimes DLC and season passes are viewed relatively poorly, as overpriced or as content held back, from a broader market perspective they could be seen positively as guaranteed post-launch support.

I could actually see both the current model and subscription models working alongside each other quite well, particularly for the biggest players like Activision Blizzard and EA (with EA already exploring), as simply different ways to access the same content.

 

[Aquamarine]

That's the question alright, but there are no other options.

Consumers are speaking loudly right now. The big games are not only selling more than in prior years, but people are also paying much more for Deluxe Editions with season passes and CEs.

So total spend at launch for the biggest titles is well above $60 now.

And the mid-tier titles with no season pass or DLC packages are doing very poorly. They sell fewer units with lower average pricing.

And don't forget, with Digital becoming higher and higher share of Day 1 (25-30%) and over the life of a product, that helps with profitability.

So is it sustainable? Maybe. Fewer titles, higher average pricing due to inclusion of add on content and digital distribution rather than play and trade.

On the other hand, consumers could reject all this, or streaming could take off, or subscription models could replace purchase models... All I know is that whatever we think the market will look like in 10 years will be nothing like what the market actually ends up being.

Long post, yikes.

speaking about digital, i heard some interesting anecdotal information about large digital percentages for the season's blockbusters

it definitely should be part of the conversation nowadays

just wish there wasn't a blackout on anything number-wise for digital

 

[On Demand]

You never know. I think MS will lower the price again faster than you can say "Spencer-Effect".

And even if so. It's pre-season again.

Unless it's bundled with games i don't think it will matter. Actually it won't since PS4 is bundled with TLoU now.

Pre-season is dumb. Consoles still sell in the 1st to 3rd quarter. With the lineup PS4 has MS shouldn't treat it as so.

 

[Y2Kev]

bumped up my xbox one prediction from 1258k to 1358k

and my ps4 prediction from 1046k to 1146k

i had a feeling that i was lowballing just a little too much


also, only 2 hours left to predict, guys





and we're talking about the usa retail hardware market, where consumers are *especially* sensitive to price fluctuations

price elasticity of demand is enormous for video game consoles

Why so little increase over November?

 

[spatenfloot]

I will edit my previous prediction :


[PS4] 1150
[XB1] 1050k
[PS3] 70k
[360] 200k
[WIU] 150k
[3DS] 300k
[PSV] 80k

I don't think there were even that many vitas on the shelves in December.

 

[Welfare]

I will edit my previous prediction :


PS4 1150
XB1 1050k

Well then, no wonder MS decided to go with hiking the price back up.

 

[samar11]

Unless it's bundled with games i don't think it will matter. Actually it won't since PS4 is bundled with TLoU now.

Pre-season is dumb. Consoles still sell in the 1st to 3rd quarter. With the lineup PS4 has MS shouldn't treat it as so.

Is the bundle for a limited time only or is it replacing the standard SKU?

 

[truth411]

Is the bundle for a limited time only or is it replacing the standard SKU?

Sounds like it's the standard SKU now.

 

[samar11]

Sounds like it's the standard SKU now.

Well they should at least give you the option of choosing between 2 games, one for adults(TLOU) and one for kids(LBP)

 

[TomShoe]

Well they should at least give you the option of choosing between 2 games, one for adults(TLOU) and one for kids(LBP)

You say that like parents actually look at what games they buy their kids :^)

 

[Welfare]

You say that like parents actually look at what games they buy their kids :^)

They do.

"Call of Duty? Meh they'll play it."

 

[samar11]

You say that like parents actually look at what games they buy their kids :^)

LOL true

 

[Final Verdict]

I bet that this bundle is their plan to maintain sales momentum until the holiday without doing a pricedrop.
....but is is US only??

IDK, I don't think they would even have to do anything even to maintain sales momentum in places like Europe and Australia....

 

[Final Verdict]

Is the bundle for a limited time only or is it replacing the standard SKU?

Looks like it....we can only speculate on their reasoning.....I honestly wasn't expecting them to do a bundle. Some might think it is proaction, others a reaction. I think it is likely somewhere inbetween.

I think that they want to gain back some ground that they lost in the holidays with their competitor, and that they also just want to ensure that the PS4 continues it's sales momentum throughout 2015 without them having to do a price drop until maybe the holidays.

5 months is a relatively long period for $399, unless the mindshare about Xbox One changed after winning in holidays.

That is true, but still, if X1 (hypothetically) gained about 700k back from Nov-Dec, that means that PS4 would have to outsell it by 140k each month, which will not be easy....

I think PS4 will gain back around 500k units in the five months. It will be interesting to see what MS does though.... I personally am betting on an evolve X1 bundle.

 

[vpance]

I think PS4 will gain back around 500k units in the five months. It will be interesting to see what MS does though.... I personally am betting on an evolve X1 bundle.

500k seems high. FWIW, that would be around 100k more than the difference of last year Jan - May, when X1 was still $499. It should be closer than last year, despite going back to $399. At least Amazon has it that way so far.

 

[PoweredByHentai]

So the PS4 console is now sitting at #15 on Amazon's Bestsellers for 2015 (basically January 2015). The Assassin's Creed X1 bundle is sitting at #16 on that list.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015/videogames/

 

[Conduit]

I think you are missing a K in there.

Thanks!

So the PS4 console is now sitting at #15 on Amazon's Bestsellers for 2015 (basically January 2015). The Assassin's Creed X1 bundle is sitting at #16 on that list.

Well, on hourly chart PS4 is pretty above. What is more important, hourly chart or monthly chart on Amazon? ( just asking )

 

[PoweredByHentai]

Thanks!



Well, on hourly chart PS4 is pretty above. What is more important, hourly chart or monthly chart on Amazon? ( just asking )

I believe the monthly chart would be more important. Hourly only tracks within the last hour or so whereas monthly tracks total sales for the month.

 

[samar11]

500k seems high. FWIW, that would be around 100k more than the difference of last year Jan - May, when X1 was still $499. It should be closer than last year, despite going back to $399. At least Amazon has it that way so far.

Wasn't there a 140k - 150k gap difference between the two even after xbox one price cut? Also remember that they have a permanent bundle which comes with TLOU for 399.

 

[slavesnyder]

But about about people on GAFGold?

GAFGold members get all NPD-numbers in advance of course, but they are not allowed to post anything about it in the threads of the common people. Mods are very harsh on that.

 

[slavesnyder]

Unless it's bundled with games i don't think it will matter. Actually it won't since PS4 is bundled with TLoU now.

Pre-season is dumb. Consoles still sell in the 1st to 3rd quarter. With the lineup PS4 has MS shouldn't treat it as so.

If the 500k or so they earned back on nov/dec melt in the coming months like phil spencer's heart when seeing a new rare game they will think of something to pimp it up. maybe they will add kinect. they should still have a few of them lying around anyway.

 

[dolemite]

Unless it's bundled with games i don't think it will matter. Actually it won't since PS4 is bundled with TLoU now.

Pre-season is dumb. Consoles still sell in the 1st to 3rd quarter. With the lineup PS4 has MS shouldn't treat it as so.

If by this year's lineup you mean The Order 1886 and Bloodborne, then neither title will be able to come close to the effect that WatchDogs or Destiny had on PS4 sales from last year. Batman Arkham Knight will provide a much bigger boost to PS4 sales.

 

[Mpl90]

Wait a second, why did Feyhd get banned?

 

[Chobel]

Wait a second, why did Feyhd get banned?

Gamergate stuff I think.

 

[Tommy DJ]

Wait a second, why did Feyhd get banned?

Likely to do with his opinions in that new Zoe Quinn thread. Like a few posters in that thread, he seemed to take a "what they're doing is bad but you know that cheating is a pretty bad thing to do" stance.

 

[Moneal]

I dropped mine a little to more match GameStop's ~30% increase in Next-Gen hardware compared to last December.


http://investor.gamestop.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=130125&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2007374

Edit:
And dropped a little on 3DS. Figure maybe an overly underwhelming December is pushing up the release of n3DS in the U.S.

those figures were in dollar amounts right? a decent portion of that could definitely be attributed to the price drop for xbox one. I mean it went from $499 to $349. thats a big drop and not counting the black friday deal or $50 off ps4.

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

Well they should at least give you the option of choosing between 2 games, one for adults(TLOU) and one for kids(LBP)

It'll be fine, there's a kid in the Last of Us and a

Spoiler

a bit in a toy shop

.

 

[radeonxt]

Ot is strange that they returned to the standard price in us, here in spain insted of price hike, now we have xone + sunset at 330€, it was at 379€ in christmas. And Assasins + one full price game pack at 379€.

When will we have the first NPD results? Today?

 

[Aquamarine]

Ot is strange that they returned to the standard price in us, here in spain insted of price hike, now we have xone + sunset at 330€, it was at 379€ in christmas. And Assasins + one full price game pack at 379€.

When will we have the first NPD results? Today?

see this:

 

[radeonxt]

see this:

Thanks!!

 

[TomShoe]

Likely to do with his opinions in that new Zoe Quinn thread. Like a few posters in that thread, he seemed to take a "what they're doing is bad but you know that cheating is a pretty bad thing to do" stance.

Gamergate stuff I think.

Another reason I avoid that thread (and GG in general) like the plague. If you come in there with a divisive opinion, don't expect to last very long.

 

[vpance]

Wasn't there a 140k - 150k gap difference between the two even after xbox one price cut? Also remember that they have a permanent bundle which comes with TLOU for 399.

In May, the month before the price cut, the difference was 120k. Then it was 72k the month of the drop to $399. If PS4 really can have a 100k lead for the next few months then X1 would be losing steam fast.

 

[Welfare]

In May, the month before the price cut, the difference was 120k. Then it was 72k the month of the drop to $399. If PS4 really can have a 100k lead for the next few months then X1 would be losing steam fast.

Or the PS4 is gaining steam.

 

[CosmicQueso]

It's also interesting that while on here sometimes DLC and season passes are viewed relatively poorly, as overpriced or as content held back, from a broader market perspective they could be seen positively as guaranteed post-launch support.

Not just post-launch anymore. You see the Guardian edition of Destiny, or the Deluxe versions of many other games being sold digitally? The ones that come with the Season Passes bundled? That's bringing up Day 1 average selling price up a LOT. The share of the Deluxe versions of these games as a % of total pre-sell through Day 1 digital sales would blow your mind. You're going to see this bundling happening for just about every game that can manage it from here on out, primarily with some kind of nominal discount (10%) for pre-ordering these premium priced bundles digitally. The market is accepting these things at a rate that is a bit hard to believe.

EDIT: Oh, you may be speaking from the consumer standpoint? That the existence of future DLC will guarantee that any issues with a game are more likely to be fixed if additional content is coming to that game? I think that could be inferred, yes.

speaking about digital, i heard some interesting anecdotal information about large digital percentages for the season's blockbusters

It was surprisingly high. And the growth in the digital share over the past 2 years? Mind boggling.

If digital is really consuming that much more sales that it makes the game sales data for NPD even more meaningless. Things are going to be heavily skewed towards cross-gen games as I imagine the % digital sales on next gen far surpass the % of digital sales on last gen. In addition to that there are certain games that are far more likely to be purchased digitally. It really clouds the entire picture IMO.

All of what you're saying is true. Platform rankings, comparisons of software sales to that of prior gens, all of it, now can't be done effectively or accurately by using the NPD feed.

 

[DarthWalden]

If digital is really consuming that much more sales that it makes the game sales data for NPD even more meaningless. Things are going to be heavily skewed towards cross-gen games as I imagine the % digital sales on next gen far surpass the % of digital sales on last gen. In addition to that there are certain games that are far more likely to be purchased digitally. It really clouds the entire picture IMO.

 

[Cornbread78]

Another reason I avoid that thread (and GG in general) like the plague. If you come in there with a divisive opinion, don't expect to last very long.

Yeah, I avoid those types of threads like the pleague. Nothing good wll come from posting in there. That whole "GamerGate" thing is like, well, umm, I, I, I just can't even....

Not just post-launch anymore. You see the Guardian edition of Destiny, or the Deluxe versions of many other games being sold digitally? The ones that come with the Season Passes bundled? That's bringing up Day 1 average selling price up a LOT. The share of the Deluxe versions of these games as a % of total pre-sell through Day 1 digital sales would blow your mind. You're going to see this bundling happening for just about every game that can manage it from here on out, primarily with some kind of nominal discount (10%) for pre-ordering these premium priced bundles digitally. a)The market is accepting these things at a rate that is a bit hard to believe.



It was surprisingly high. b)And the growth in the digital share over the past 2 years? Mind boggling.

Well, for all the "wrongs" MS was trying to do with the XB1 at launch, they are aware of the way the market is moving. We all have Apple to blame for this since digital downloads are widely accepted on the bazillion iPods out on the market used by both young and old people/gamers. It is just becoming a part of the world's digital infrastructure and is becoming more and more accepted by the average consumer and here is the word; casuals that find it much easier than running to the store to buy the disk.

I'm guilty of it too. If a game is out of stock, I tell customers to buy GCs and download the games directly to their systems.


If the market is truly moving in that direction (VITA numbers say "hell yeah"!) then Sony and MS need to repond accordingly with bigger storage drives at an affordable price. (don't bring up the VITA, those jerks...) 1TB drives for the PS4 are routinely under $100 on sale.

 

[Percy]

That is true, but still, if X1 (hypothetically) gained about 700k back from Nov-Dec, that means that PS4 would have to outsell it by 140k each month, which will not be easy....

I think PS4 will gain back around 500k units in the five months. It will be interesting to see what MS does though.... I personally am betting on an evolve X1 bundle.

If an Evolve bundle is the best they come out with then I can see the gap between the two consoles being wider than ever by summer time. X1 sales are going to nosedive now the price has gone up and there won't be many people that give a shit about Evolve (A new IP with very bad wom and practically no pre-release buzz at this point), lets face it.

My bet is on them lowering the price again by March, but it having significantly less impact than it did last year.

 

[On Demand]

If the 500k or so they earned back on nov/dec melt in the coming months like phil spencer's heart when seeing a new rare game they will think of something to pimp it up. maybe they will add kinect. they should still have a few of them lying around anyway.

Don't see what else they can do besides bundle Evolve at $350.

If by this year's lineup you mean The Order 1886 and Bloodborne, then neither title will be able to come close to the effect that WatchDogs or Destiny had on PS4 sales from last year. Batman Arkham Knight will provide a much bigger boost to PS4 sales.

It's the accumilation of software. The Order, Bloodborne, MLB 16, Until Dawn etc. and whatever indie games are released between those times. Then you still got 3rd party games. Point is the first half of the year PS4 looks more appealing.

Bloodborne is being underestimated. The Demon and Dark Souls series have a large following on PS3, 360 and PC. How many fans from each are going to want to pick up a PS4 to play the succesor to Demon's Souls?

 

[Chezzymann]

Any reason why this thread has only a few hundred posts when the last prediction thread had a few thousand?

 

[FunkyPajamas]

Any reason why this thread has only a few hundred posts when the last prediction thread had a few thousand?

Sony WW 18.5 thread. Everybody's posting there instead

 

[Aquamarine]

this is it guys

 

[A_Gorilla]

Sony WW 18.5 thread. Everybody's posting there instead

That and everyone expects XB1 to win. The question is only by how much.

 

[Ricky_R]

That and everyone expects XB1 to win. The question is only by how much.

183,000. Take it to the bank.

 

[spatenfloot]

this is it guys

Great! Now how long until NPD is out?

 

[Xenus]

this is it guys

Lol you almost make it sound like you are more excited then for Nov NPD day

 

[Welfare]

Great! Now how long until NPD is out?

22 hours.

 

[Aquamarine]

Lol you almost make it sound like you are more excited then for Nov NPD day

i'm always excited for sales data

there's some interesting stuff in those reports


also, i really want to know how low sales of the crew are

 

[Carl]

Lol you almost make it sound like you are more excited then for Nov NPD day

Sales data is always fun/interesting

 

[baxter2231]

Why is there number predicitions when there no longer giving numbers but position and maybe one systems number?

 

[Welfare]

Why is there number predicitions when there no longer giving numbers but position and maybe one systems number?