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Famitsu Sales: Week 14, 2023 (Apr 01 - Apr 07)


www-famitsu-com.translate.goog

[Software & Hardware Weekly Sales] "Princess Peach" ranks first for 3 consecutive weeks! Bakumatsu open world action RPG “Rise of Ronin” is also doing well [4/1-4/7]​

Sales ranking announced by Famitsu. This time we bring you a summary of estimated weekly game software and hardware sales from April 1st to April 7th, 2024.

"Princess Peach Showtime! " is an action game starring Princess Peach from the " Super Mario" series." series, sales remained strong selling 19,612 units. Cumulative sales have reached 124,432 units, ranking first for three consecutive weeks.

“Rise of the Ronin” ranked third and is a completely new open-world action RPG set in Japan at the end of the Edo period. The strategic combat action is gaining popularity, previous works Nioh and Ninja Gaiden have been well-received for its crunchy action and diverse play elements and sold 12,080 units this week. We can expect continued sales in the future.

There are many other works that are regulars in the top 10 but I would like to focus on the five works that ranked from 6th to 10th. Splatoon3, Nintendo Switch Sports, Animal Crossing: New Horizons, Momotaro Dentetsu World and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate all of which are fun to play against and interact with.

Famitsu Sales: Week 14, 2024 (Apr 01 - Apr 07)​

Software​

1st Switch Princess Peach Showtime!
19,612 (total 124,432) -28% / Nintendo / March 22, 2024

2nd Switch Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
13,055 (total 5,781,663 units) +25% / Nintendo / April 28, 2017

3rd PS5 Rise of the Ronin
12,080 (total of 96,865) -40% / Sony Interactive Entertainment / March 22, 2024

4th Switch Super Mario Bros. Wonder
9,898 (total 1,813,645) +21% / Nintendo / October 20, 2023

5th Switch Minecraft
7,464 (3,491,021 total) +13% / Microsoft Japan / June 21, 2018

6th Switch Splatoon 3
6,569 (total 4,270,899) +6% / Nintendo / September 9, 2022

7th Switch Nintendo Switch Sports
6,497 (total 1,306,180) +35% / Nintendo / April 29, 2022

8th Switch Momotaro Dentetsu World: Electric Railway ~The earth revolves around hope! ~
6,189 (total 1,029,313) +17% / KONAMI / November 16, 2023

9th Switch Animal Crossing: New Horizons
6,110 (total 7,735,293) -5% / Nintendo / March 20, 2020

10th Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
5,507 (total 5,481,777) +19% / Nintendo / December 7, 2018

Hardware​

  • Switch -7,368 (total 19,763,280)
  • Switch Lite - 9,188 (total 5,802,893)
  • Switch Oled - 55,386 (total 7,014,166)
  • PS5 - 20,269 (total 4,733,271)
  • PS5 DE - 4,707 (total 751,268)
  • Xbox Series X - 1,443 (total 264,117)
  • Xbox Series S - 670 (total 307,116)
  • PS4 - 107 (total 7,925,446)

wDT0NgM.png
 
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Alexios

Cores, shaders and BIOS oh my!
Switch murdering everything, still :lollipop_anxious_sweat:

Big bump over last week/last year's week 14 too, for no reason, even though it's overall tracking lower than last ytd.

Edit: yes my guy Mibu, Nintendo sells digitally too and at pretty good ratios, as much as 57% during FY 23 Q4, but when/if Sony is able to give out sales talk including physical and digital copies that completely reverse the trends shown by Famitsu we'll definitely all hear about it, don't worry, lol 🤦‍♂️
 
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Woopah

Member
Those are some pretty good holds for Ronin and Peach. Very solid sales for Switch evergreens too.

Only disappointment is that Unicorn Overlord didn't come back into the top 10.
 

Hardensoul

Member
Woah! Why the Switch bump to 71k! Japan maybe carry Switch to 160m by itself! 😂

Edit: Peach doing work? Nice 🦵 😂
 
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IAmRei

Member
Switch is brutal in japan, although software sales is not much btw. seems kind of lower than other months. Is it natural in these months?
 

John Wick

Member
Clearly shows handheld is a big thing in Japan. I bet a lot of those sales are people switching to the Oled model. I know we did. PS5 is simply too expensive and hasn't really captured the audience with their games. Playability over graphics in Japan.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
Ps5 down like 30% vs yoy. What's going on there?

Is it slipping vs ps4?

Switch just randomly beasting.
 
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Woopah

Member
Not sure where you got 70% from, but my point is we don't know what the split was then or is now. We do know that there is a digital only PS5 when there was no digital only PS5 and that that digital only ps5 represents 13.6% of the PS5 userbase in Japan.

70% comes from looking at the physical software sales for each platform from Media Create:

PS4 physical software after 23 months - 7,556,474 games sold
PS5 physical software after 26 months - 2,409,381 games sold

The above numbers give you a difference of less than 70%, but then we have to add another 3 months' worth of physical software sales to PS4 to match up the timelines. Adding those numbers makes PS5 physical software a 70%+ decline (I checked the weekly charts).

I agree that PS5's digital split is higher than PS4's. But PS5 would need a 70%+ digital split for its total software sales to match PS4's physical-only software sales.

We also don't know what percentage of sales have now shifted to other retailers. Famitsu doesn't cover Lawson, Amazon, or other online retailers.

I understand your position, my point is that there is too little data coming out of famitsu to make hardline conclusions like you've made.

If we made the same assumptions from NPD and if they didn't cover digital, then you'd make the same conclusion, and it'd be inaccurate. The details of these charting services is really important to parse. NPD used to not cover Walmart.

I would make the same conclusion if NPD told us that PS5 physical game unit sales were 70%+ lower than PS4 for the first two years. But they aren't telling us that and we wouldn't know if it was inaccurate. NPD now covering Walmart does improve its accuracy, but that could make historical hardware/software numbers go up or down.

Ultimately, my point is you have to put a massive asterisk on famitsu sales and really any sales coming out of japan.

You do have to put an asterisk. Absolutely. But as an example, lets say we only had physical software information in Japan for Wii and Wii U:

Wii physical software after 26 months -26,323,513
Wii U physical software after 26 months -7,033,685

To me it makes more sense to say:

"The 70%+ decline in physical sales from Wii to Wii U strongly suggests that the latter's total software sales are notably lower than the former's. The extent to which they are lower cannot be determined, due to lack of digital data."

Rather than:

"Media Create does not include digital and does not track every store, therefore we can never comment on how Wii U software is performing in Japan."

It would be fantastic to know the digital split for PS5 in Japan. But unfortunately we can only look at the PS5's global digital sales split (roughly) and the digital split of Sony's first party games in Asia.
 
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70% comes from looking at the physical software sales for each platform from Media Create:

PS4 physical software after 23 months - 7,556,474 games sold
PS5 physical software after 26 months - 2,409,381 games sold

The above numbers give you a difference of less than 70%, but then we have to add another 3 months' worth of physical software sales to PS4 to match up the timelines. Adding those numbers makes PS5 physical software a 70%+ decline (I checked the weekly charts).

That's super misleading as it doesn't take into account volume of titles and isn't simply a like for like comparison to begin with.


I agree that PS5's digital split is higher than PS4's. But PS5 would need a 70%+ digital split for its total software sales to match PS4's physical-only software sales.

But your general premise is faulty to begin with. For example media creates chart for 2015 shows 99 titles released. Did the same number of games come out in 2022? Did the same franchises come out? It's a completely apples-and-oranges comparison. That number can be entirely thrown off by even a small number of games. For example Metal Gear Solid V contributed significantly to those sales on PS4. Where is MGS6 on PS5?

I would make the same conclusion if NPD told us that PS5 physical game unit sales were 70%+ lower than PS4 for the first two years. But they aren't telling us that and we wouldn't know if it was inaccurate. NPD now covering Walmart does improve its accuracy, but that could make historical hardware/software numbers go up or down.

See above

You do have to put an asterisk. Absolutely. But as an example, lets say we only had physical software information in Japan for Wii and Wii U:

Wii physical software after 26 months -26,323,513
Wii U physical software after 26 months -7,033,685

To me it makes more sense to say:

"The 70%+ decline in physical sales from Wii to Wii U strongly suggests that the latter's total software sales are notably lower than the former's. The extent to which they are lower cannot be determined, due to lack of digital data."

Rather than:

"Media Create does not include digital and does not track every store, therefore we can never comment on how Wii U software is performing in Japan."

It would be fantastic to know the digital split for PS5 in Japan. But unfortunately we can only look at the PS5's global digital sales split (roughly) and the digital split of Sony's first party games in Asia.

Again, your entire premise of a 70 percent decline is faulty.

You don't take into account
  • Volume of software
  • Specific franchises
  • Digital to Physical ratio

What we know is that the PS5 has outsold the PS4 aligned for the same period, but there were also reports of a lot of scalping to China. Famitsu isn't covering Chinese software sales.

It would be like making the argument that Naughty Dog hasn't been as productive on the PS5 so far as they were on the PS4, while ignoring that their last game came in 2020 the same year the PS5 launched and that development times are longer now than they were there. Also ignoring the pandemic.
 
This game seems to have resonated with the japanese audience.

I mean it's sales aren't amazing or anything, but holding alot better then i think most people would have thought.

Yeah it's kind of wild that PS5 seems to have a persistent seller software-wise in Japan and it's technically from Koei-Tecmo (well, they made the game, but SIE are publishing it).

PS5 hardware sales seem to be dropping there a bit though; it was mostly 2:1 in Switch's favor prior to the new PS5 Digital model & price increase, now it's closer to 3:1 in Japan between them. Though at this point, I don't think anyone would be fussed with a hardware gap increase if it means PS5 had more consistent performers in Top 10 for Software like Ronin (or the year prior, Hogwarts Legacy).

Mibu no ookami Mibu no ookami IIRC Japan had one of the lowest digital attach ratios for Sony consoles, something like 30% or even less (maybe closer to 25% or 20%). So on average, digital PS5 software sales are not making up for drops in physical sales vs. PS4 in Japan. Woopah Woopah is right about that part.
 
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Woopah

Member
That's super misleading as it doesn't take into account volume of titles and isn't simply a like for like comparison to begin with.




But your general premise is faulty to begin with. For example media creates chart for 2015 shows 99 titles released. Did the same number of games come out in 2022? Did the same franchises come out? It's a completely apples-and-oranges comparison. That number can be entirely thrown off by even a small number of games. For example Metal Gear Solid V contributed significantly to those sales on PS4. Where is MGS6 on PS5?



See above



Again, your entire premise of a 70 percent decline is faulty.

You don't take into account
  • Volume of software
  • Specific franchises
  • Digital to Physical ratio

What we know is that the PS5 has outsold the PS4 aligned for the same period, but there were also reports of a lot of scalping to China. Famitsu isn't covering Chinese software sales.

It would be like making the argument that Naughty Dog hasn't been as productive on the PS5 so far as they were on the PS4, while ignoring that their last game came in 2020 the same year the PS5 launched and that development times are longer now than they were there. Also ignoring the pandemic.

Volume of games released and the popularity of different franchises are the causes for the difference in software sales between platforms.

The PS2 got many popular franchises that the GameCube and Xbox didn't get, and more games released for it. Is it "super misleading" for me to say that the PS2 had higher software sales in Japan than the other two consoles?

MGS4 contributed to the PS3's software sales, but there was no new, mainline MGS game on the Wii U. Do you think it is a "faulty premise" if I said that the PS3 sold more games in Japan than the Wii U did?

What consoles can you compare, if you only accept comparisons between platforms with the same lineup?

What we know is that the PS5 has outsold the PS4 aligned for the same period, but there were also reports of a lot of scalping to China. Famitsu isn't covering Chinese software sales.

I completely agree that scalping is a contributing factor.
 
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Yes, Imports/Exports is a thing despite a lot of people saying otherwise, but from week 18 to week 31, the gap will increase compared to 2023.
 

Closer

Member
Yeah but the problem with with Nintendo is that It's just taking a long time for them to see that their future exists off of their own hardware. The sooner they realize that, the sooner they can be saved. Would be a career moment for someone.

nintendo-doomed.gif
 
Volume of games released and the popularity of different franchises are the causes for the difference in software sales between platforms.

The PS2 got many popular franchises that the GameCube and Xbox didn't get, and more games released for it. Is it "super misleading" for me to say that the PS2 had higher software sales in Japan than the other two consoles?

The difference here being that the PS5 isn't pegged to not get any major franchises that the PS4 got. You're just looking at a very small sample size within a 2 year time span and assuming they'll be the same. That's why it is misleading.

Let me paint you a picture. Imagine I showed you software sales for February for every year for 5 years and suggested that 2024 is in decline because 2023 was significantly higher, but failed to mention that Hogwarts Legacy a game primed to come out for the holidays got delayed to February 2023.

MGS4 contributed to the PS3's software sales, but there was no new, mainline MGS game on the Wii U. Do you think it is a "faulty premise" if I said that the PS3 sold more games in Japan than the Wii U did?

What consoles can you compare, if you only accept comparisons between platforms with the same lineup?

When making comparisons you try to make the things you're comparing as similar as possible if you're trying to actually come out with a conclusion as to why they aren't having the same results that aren't related to the factors of how they're foundationally different...
 
Famitsu Sales: 4/1/24 - 4/7/24 has been updated with software sales rankings 11 to 30.

Software Sales (followed by lifetime sales):
  1. [NSW] Princess Peach: Showtime! (Nintendo, 03/22/24) – 19,612 (124,432)
  2. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 13,055 (5,781,663)
  3. [PS5] Rise of the Ronin (SIE, 03/22/24) – 12,080 (96,865)
  4. [NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (Nintendo, 10/20/23) – 9,898 (1,813,645)
  5. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 7,464 (3,491,021)
  6. [NSW] Splatoon 3 (Nintendo, 09/09/22) – 6,569 (4,270,899)
  7. [NSW] Nintendo Switch Sports (Nintendo, 04/29/22) – 6,497 (1,306,180)
  8. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World: Chikyuu wa Kibou de Mawatteru! (Konami, 11/16/23) – 6,189 (1,029,313)
  9. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 6,110 (7,735,293)
  10. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 5,507 (5,481,777)
  11. [NSW] Mario vs. Donkey Kong (Nintendo, 02/16/24) – 5,409 (142,778)
  12. [NSW] Unicorn Overlord (ATLUS, 03/08/24) – 5,336 (67,290)
  13. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet / Pokemon Violet (The Pokemon Company, 11/18/22) – 4,235 (5,325,234)
  14. [PS5] Dragon’s Dogma II (Capcom, 03/22/24) – 4,171 (81,935)
  15. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (Square Enix, 02/29/24) – 3,819 (314,415)
  16. [NSW] Mario Party Superstars (Nintendo, 10/29/21) – 3,774 (1,423,482)
  17. [NSW] Winning Post 10 2024 (Koei Tecmo, 03/28/24) – 3,637 (16,482)
  18. [NSW] Pikmin 4 (Nintendo, 07/21/23) – 2,547 (1,197,429)
  19. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 3,109 (1,268,304)
  20. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 2,507 (3,540,836)
  21. [NSW] It Takes Two (Electronic Arts, 12/08/22) – 2,436 (33,547)
  22. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 Special Price (SEGA, 11/17/22) – 2,325 (151,268)
  23. [NSW] The Game of Life for Nintendo Switch (Takara Tomy, 10/06/23) – 2,158 (200,153)
  24. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival (Bandai Namco, 09/22/22) – 2,150 (311,713)
  25. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! (Konami, 11/19/20) – 2,064 (2,988,926)
  26. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 1,973 (2,272,810)
  27. [PS5] Winning Post 10 2024 (Koei Tecmo, 03/28/24) – 1,909 (8,642)
  28. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (Nintendo, 05/12/23) – 1,836 (1,972,217)
  29. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 3 (Nintendo, 10/31/19) – 1,719 (969,574)
  30. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 1,665 (2,285,010)
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Famitsu Sales: 4/1/24 - 4/7/24 has been updated with software sales rankings 11 to 30.

Software Sales (followed by lifetime sales):
  1. [NSW] Princess Peach: Showtime! (Nintendo, 03/22/24) – 19,612 (124,432)
  2. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 13,055 (5,781,663)
  3. [PS5] Rise of the Ronin (SIE, 03/22/24) – 12,080 (96,865)
  4. [NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (Nintendo, 10/20/23) – 9,898 (1,813,645)
  5. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 7,464 (3,491,021)
  6. [NSW] Splatoon 3 (Nintendo, 09/09/22) – 6,569 (4,270,899)
  7. [NSW] Nintendo Switch Sports (Nintendo, 04/29/22) – 6,497 (1,306,180)
  8. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World: Chikyuu wa Kibou de Mawatteru! (Konami, 11/16/23) – 6,189 (1,029,313)
  9. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 6,110 (7,735,293)
  10. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 5,507 (5,481,777)
  11. [NSW] Mario vs. Donkey Kong (Nintendo, 02/16/24) – 5,409 (142,778)
  12. [NSW] Unicorn Overlord (ATLUS, 03/08/24) – 5,336 (67,290)
  13. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet / Pokemon Violet (The Pokemon Company, 11/18/22) – 4,235 (5,325,234)
  14. [PS5] Dragon’s Dogma II (Capcom, 03/22/24) – 4,171 (81,935)
  15. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (Square Enix, 02/29/24) – 3,819 (314,415)
  16. [NSW] Mario Party Superstars (Nintendo, 10/29/21) – 3,774 (1,423,482)
  17. [NSW] Winning Post 10 2024 (Koei Tecmo, 03/28/24) – 3,637 (16,482)
  18. [NSW] Pikmin 4 (Nintendo, 07/21/23) – 2,547 (1,197,429)
  19. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 3,109 (1,268,304)
  20. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 2,507 (3,540,836)
  21. [NSW] It Takes Two (Electronic Arts, 12/08/22) – 2,436 (33,547)
  22. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 Special Price (SEGA, 11/17/22) – 2,325 (151,268)
  23. [NSW] The Game of Life for Nintendo Switch (Takara Tomy, 10/06/23) – 2,158 (200,153)
  24. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival (Bandai Namco, 09/22/22) – 2,150 (311,713)
  25. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! (Konami, 11/19/20) – 2,064 (2,988,926)
  26. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 1,973 (2,272,810)
  27. [PS5] Winning Post 10 2024 (Koei Tecmo, 03/28/24) – 1,909 (8,642)
  28. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (Nintendo, 05/12/23) – 1,836 (1,972,217)
  29. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 3 (Nintendo, 10/31/19) – 1,719 (969,574)
  30. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 1,665 (2,285,010)

Thanks!
 

Woopah

Member
The difference here being that the PS5 isn't pegged to not get any major franchises that the PS4 got. You're just looking at a very small sample size within a 2 year time span and assuming they'll be the same. That's why it is misleading.

Let me paint you a picture. Imagine I showed you software sales for February for every year for 5 years and suggested that 2024 is in decline because 2023 was significantly higher, but failed to mention that Hogwarts Legacy a game primed to come out for the holidays got delayed to February 2023.



When making comparisons you try to make the things you're comparing as similar as possible if you're trying to actually come out with a conclusion as to why they aren't having the same results that aren't related to the factors of how they're foundationally different...

I'm talking about what has happened so far, not assumptions about the whole PS5 lifespan. If I was to say "PS5 physical software is 70%+ below PS4 physical software launch aligned in Japan after two years, and this will definitely be the case for the rest of its life" then yes that underlined part would be misleading. But I'm not saying that.

I am looking at the reported numbers from the past and saying what they mean. You asked me where I got the 70% from, so I showed you the maths that prove it.

Let me paint you a picture. Imagine I showed you software sales for February for every year for 5 years and suggested that 2024 is in decline because 2023 was significantly higher, but failed to mention that Hogwarts Legacy a game primed to come out for the holidays got delayed to February 2023.

There's the what, and then there's the why.

What: If you were to say "Reported software sales from GSD in the UK in February 2024 were 5.5% lower than in February 2023, and hardware sales were 33% lower" then you would not be misleading or making a faulty premise. You would be making an accurate statement about what has happened in the past.

Why: There are multiply factors that influence this, one of which is indeed that Hogwarts launched in Feb 2023. Another factor would be that PS5 became much more readily available in Feb 2023, leading to a sales spike.

So now let's apply that to what I have been saying.

What: "Launch aligned, and using the reported Japan figures from Media Create, PS5 would need a 70%+ digital split for its first 26 month for its total software sales to match PS4's physical-only software sales". Can we at least agree that this is a fact?

Why: I believe there are several factors that have led to this outcome so far, including:
  • Rising digital rates, and the PS5 having a digital-only SKU
  • The growing popularity of free to play games
  • The lack of more appealing packaged games on PS5
  • The high price of PS5 hardware, which led to some scalping
Again, I appreciate you making the effort to contribute to the discussion :)
 

Woopah

Member
Switch is brutal in japan, although software sales is not much btw. seems kind of lower than other months. Is it natural in these months?
I think its mostly because the Q1 lineup for Switch is weaker this year than in some recent Q1s
Clearly shows handheld is a big thing in Japan. I bet a lot of those sales are people switching to the Oled model. I know we did. PS5 is simply too expensive and hasn't really captured the audience with their games. Playability over graphics in Japan.
Handheld is definitely big, but the appeal of the home console experience in Japan should also not be underestimated.

Non-handheld Switch games can sell fairly well in Japan, and local, same screen multiplayer is an important feature too.
).

Mibu no ookami Mibu no ookami IIRC Japan had one of the lowest digital attach ratios for Sony consoles, something like 30% or even less (maybe closer to 25% or 20%). So on average, digital PS5 software sales are not making up for drops in physical sales vs. PS4 in Japan. Woopah Woopah is right about that part.
To be fair I don't believe we have the actual digital splits for PlayStation in Japan. We have the global PlayStation split, and the split for several Sony first party games in Asia.
Famitsu Sales: 4/1/24 - 4/7/24 has been updated with software sales rankings 11 to 30.

Software Sales (followed by lifetime sales):
  1. [NSW] Princess Peach: Showtime! (Nintendo, 03/22/24) – 19,612 (124,432)
  2. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 13,055 (5,781,663)
  3. [PS5] Rise of the Ronin (SIE, 03/22/24) – 12,080 (96,865)
  4. [NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (Nintendo, 10/20/23) – 9,898 (1,813,645)
  5. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 7,464 (3,491,021)
  6. [NSW] Splatoon 3 (Nintendo, 09/09/22) – 6,569 (4,270,899)
  7. [NSW] Nintendo Switch Sports (Nintendo, 04/29/22) – 6,497 (1,306,180)
  8. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World: Chikyuu wa Kibou de Mawatteru! (Konami, 11/16/23) – 6,189 (1,029,313)
  9. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 6,110 (7,735,293)
  10. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 5,507 (5,481,777)
  11. [NSW] Mario vs. Donkey Kong (Nintendo, 02/16/24) – 5,409 (142,778)
  12. [NSW] Unicorn Overlord (ATLUS, 03/08/24) – 5,336 (67,290)
  13. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet / Pokemon Violet (The Pokemon Company, 11/18/22) – 4,235 (5,325,234)
  14. [PS5] Dragon’s Dogma II (Capcom, 03/22/24) – 4,171 (81,935)
  15. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Rebirth (Square Enix, 02/29/24) – 3,819 (314,415)
  16. [NSW] Mario Party Superstars (Nintendo, 10/29/21) – 3,774 (1,423,482)
  17. [NSW] Winning Post 10 2024 (Koei Tecmo, 03/28/24) – 3,637 (16,482)
  18. [NSW] Pikmin 4 (Nintendo, 07/21/23) – 2,547 (1,197,429)
  19. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 3,109 (1,268,304)
  20. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 2,507 (3,540,836)
  21. [NSW] It Takes Two (Electronic Arts, 12/08/22) – 2,436 (33,547)
  22. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 Special Price (SEGA, 11/17/22) – 2,325 (151,268)
  23. [NSW] The Game of Life for Nintendo Switch (Takara Tomy, 10/06/23) – 2,158 (200,153)
  24. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival (Bandai Namco, 09/22/22) – 2,150 (311,713)
  25. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! (Konami, 11/19/20) – 2,064 (2,988,926)
  26. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 1,973 (2,272,810)
  27. [PS5] Winning Post 10 2024 (Koei Tecmo, 03/28/24) – 1,909 (8,642)
  28. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (Nintendo, 05/12/23) – 1,836 (1,972,217)
  29. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 3 (Nintendo, 10/31/19) – 1,719 (969,574)
  30. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 1,665 (2,285,010)
Replenished stock means Unicorn Overlord jumps 1650% this week.
 
What: "Launch aligned, and using the reported Japan figures from Media Create, PS5 would need a 70%+ digital split for its first 26 month for its total software sales to match PS4's physical-only software sales". Can we at least agree that this is a fact?

Why: I believe there are several factors that have led to this outcome so far, including:
  • Rising digital rates, and the PS5 having a digital-only SKU
  • The growing popularity of free to play games
  • The lack of more appealing packaged games on PS5
  • The high price of PS5 hardware, which led to some scalping

Do you have any evidence to suggest that F2P games make up a larger percentage of games played in Japan as they are in the West?
Do you have any evidence to suggest that the games released on PS5 are less appealing than the games released on PS4?

I don't think it's a fact. I think you're missing A LOT of elements that you're not looking at. As I mentioned earlier, it's not just digital, but the advent of online retail, which is also growing in Japan, probably even more so due to the pandemic. Anyone buying games on Amazon.co.jp isn't getting tracked on media create or famitsu.

My point isn't that software sales aren't necessarily down, it's just that we have no idea what the reality of the situation is because the data is no longer reflective of what is necessarily going on.
 

Woopah

Member
Do you have any evidence to suggest that F2P games make up a larger percentage of games played in Japan as they are in the West?
Indeed we do. There's a 2022 talk from Sony where they showed this graph, demonstrating that Japan has more relative playtime on F2P than other places.

exqR7Az.png


Do you have any evidence to suggest that the games released on PS5 are less appealing than the games released on PS4?
I was more saying that if PS5 had received more appealing games, its software sales would be higher. Like you said, PS4's software sales were helped a lot by a new MGS game, and that has not yet come to PS5. Likewise PS4 benefitted from having some popular Dragon Quest spin offs in its early years. Whereas since the PS5 came out, the two big DQ spin offs have not been released on the platform.

I don't think it's a fact. I think you're missing A LOT of elements that you're not looking at. As I mentioned earlier, it's not just digital, but the advent of online retail, which is also growing in Japan, probably even more so due to the pandemic. Anyone buying games on Amazon.co.jp isn't getting tracked on media create or famitsu.
Anyone buying games on Amazon will not be in addition to the Media Create figures. They will be factored in. Like how NPD use to factor in the Walmart sales before they got direct access to the data.

Media Create will have upweighted the figures they collect to cover the whole market. They are the most trusted tracker for the Japanese market, which is why pretty much all the major publishers are their customers.

Edit: They'll be a margin of era just like any other tracker, but I don't think that should mean we don't use them for analysis. If someone asked me how many PS5s were sold in Japan in 2022 I would say "1,189,927", rather than "Media Create doesn't track every single retailer, therefore we have no idea."

My point isn't that software sales aren't necessarily down, it's just that we have no idea what the reality of the situation is because the data is no longer reflective of what is necessarily going on.

I'd say we have enough information to know it is highly likely that software sales are notably down on PS5 vs. PS4. But its also true to say that we don't have much idea about the % of the decline.
 
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Do you have any evidence to suggest that F2P games make up a larger percentage of games played in Japan as they are in the West?
Do you have any evidence to suggest that the games released on PS5 are less appealing than the games released on PS4?

I don't think it's a fact. I think you're missing A LOT of elements that you're not looking at. As I mentioned earlier, it's not just digital, but the advent of online retail, which is also growing in Japan, probably even more so due to the pandemic. Anyone buying games on Amazon.co.jp isn't getting tracked on media create or famitsu.

My point isn't that software sales aren't necessarily down, it's just that we have no idea what the reality of the situation is because the data is no longer reflective of what is necessarily going on.

I'd personally love to believe this for the Japanese market, but there's too much "smoke" WRT drop in physical sales for PS5 games vs. PS4 ones (even when launch-aligned). That's combined with digital accounting for a lower share of software sales in Japan. Woopah Woopah yeah the data I was referring to was either from the previous fiscal report or leaked from the Insomniac hack, can't recall which one. But it did say digital for Japan was closer to between 20% - 30%. Even if just Sony games that can prob be extrapolated for 3P in the region too on PS.

So those things in tandem and at least given what we see, IMO software sales are down overall for PS in Japan. There's not much use in denying it, what we should be asking is "why". And I think that's a multi-faceted issue. Home console gaming in Japan as whole has been trending down gen-over-gen because people have less time to spend at home. Portable and handheld are the dominant modes of play in places like Japan, but Sony's only offering for that is the PS Portal, an accessory that still requires a PS5 anyway, and seems to still be under-supplied. Or maybe it's not undersupplied, but could have less demand due to combination of being non-native gaming solution, overall more expensive (since PS5 price increased in Japan), and could be suffering from perceived market underperformance of PSVR2 (another, more expensive accessory released earlier the same year).

Another factor likely is, quite simply, there aren't enough games appealing to Japanese gaming tastes on the PS5. What I mean by that is games which have strong long-term sales in the physical charts in the Top 20, because that would seem to indicate strong long-term digital sales as well. Games like Rise of the Ronin seem like they'll be those types of games, like how Hogwarts Legacy and Ghosts of Tsushima did, but Sony simply need more of games with that type of sales retention in Japan. They don't have to be all "mature" or story-driven, samurai-themed games, either. If you look at the offerings on Switch, many of its best-sellers are none of that, but they are certainly more "all ages" types of stuff, more whimsical & "cartoony" as some put it.

This is where I think expanding their 1P output (internal 1P, in co-development with 3P, etc.) to AA games leveraging some of their legacy IP & modern smaller IP like Astrobot would be a big benefit overall to their software pipeline, but also particularly beneficial in markets like Japan if they can also go for more aggressive pricing for PS5s in that region (maybe with bundles including a PS Portal) or facilitate the PS Portal as a dedicated cloud gaming device that doesn't need a PS5 (could be various reasons why that would be complicated to do though). Getting more of that type of software out for PlayStation in markets like Japan, as long as they're smart about building long-term retention with the IP chosen, could have a benefit to broadening PlayStation device uptake (PS5, PS Portal etc.) and would be very beneficial longer-term for a native PS handheld a few years later (like the rumored one to come in the PS6 gen).

I think it's fine to acknowledge that the software sales situation for PlayStation in Japan isn't as great as it should be when compared to previous gens, but I would agree with the idea that a lot of people use it to lazily dump on the system or try suggesting solutions that involve multiplat-porting to platforms that aren't PlayStation. When in reality, what they are suggesting is Sony to run away from addressing root problems with their own product offering in the market to better themselves and their product ecosystem in the market longer-term, in favor of a band-aid solution of porting to other platforms. I do also agree with the idea that a lot of people who make that suggestion either don't know or ignore the fact certain other companies can "get away" with devaluing their console platform with an aggressive porting strategy to systems like PC, because those companies have major vested interests IN some of those other platforms. Sony has no vested interest in PC, they don't own the dominant OS or game development SDK/API package in the PC space nor do they have lucrative licensing agreements with virtually all the PC OEMs for an OS & services.

So the suggestions they not only continue with their current porting strategy to platforms like PC but actually get even more aggressive with it, would just lead to complete destabilization of the console platform and accelerate declines there. We already have a console brand on the market with signs of that (and other things) having led to the exact same pattern of decline, why are some so demanding that PlayStation follow that same track?

Anyway that's maybe getting a bit off-track; I just wanted to say that it doesn't help to deny the software situation in Japan is "perfectly fine" when a lot of evidence suggests it isn't, but also wanted to say that whatever issues exist can 100% be addressed by Sony/SIE going forward and many of those solutions would also produce benefits for the console and brand well beyond just the Japanese market, too.
 

Woopah

Member
I'd personally love to believe this for the Japanese market, but there's too much "smoke" WRT drop in physical sales for PS5 games vs. PS4 ones (even when launch-aligned). That's combined with digital accounting for a lower share of software sales in Japan. Woopah Woopah yeah the data I was referring to was either from the previous fiscal report or leaked from the Insomniac hack, can't recall which one. But it did say digital for Japan was closer to between 20% - 30%. Even if just Sony games that can prob be extrapolated for 3P in the region too on PS.

So those things in tandem and at least given what we see, IMO software sales are down overall for PS in Japan. There's not much use in denying it, what we should be asking is "why". And I think that's a multi-faceted issue. Home console gaming in Japan as whole has been trending down gen-over-gen because people have less time to spend at home. Portable and handheld are the dominant modes of play in places like Japan, but Sony's only offering for that is the PS Portal, an accessory that still requires a PS5 anyway, and seems to still be under-supplied. Or maybe it's not undersupplied, but could have less demand due to combination of being non-native gaming solution, overall more expensive (since PS5 price increased in Japan), and could be suffering from perceived market underperformance of PSVR2 (another, more expensive accessory released earlier the same year).

Another factor likely is, quite simply, there aren't enough games appealing to Japanese gaming tastes on the PS5. What I mean by that is games which have strong long-term sales in the physical charts in the Top 20, because that would seem to indicate strong long-term digital sales as well. Games like Rise of the Ronin seem like they'll be those types of games, like how Hogwarts Legacy and Ghosts of Tsushima did, but Sony simply need more of games with that type of sales retention in Japan. They don't have to be all "mature" or story-driven, samurai-themed games, either. If you look at the offerings on Switch, many of its best-sellers are none of that, but they are certainly more "all ages" types of stuff, more whimsical & "cartoony" as some put it.

This is where I think expanding their 1P output (internal 1P, in co-development with 3P, etc.) to AA games leveraging some of their legacy IP & modern smaller IP like Astrobot would be a big benefit overall to their software pipeline, but also particularly beneficial in markets like Japan if they can also go for more aggressive pricing for PS5s in that region (maybe with bundles including a PS Portal) or facilitate the PS Portal as a dedicated cloud gaming device that doesn't need a PS5 (could be various reasons why that would be complicated to do though). Getting more of that type of software out for PlayStation in markets like Japan, as long as they're smart about building long-term retention with the IP chosen, could have a benefit to broadening PlayStation device uptake (PS5, PS Portal etc.) and would be very beneficial longer-term for a native PS handheld a few years later (like the rumored one to come in the PS6 gen).

I think it's fine to acknowledge that the software sales situation for PlayStation in Japan isn't as great as it should be when compared to previous gens, but I would agree with the idea that a lot of people use it to lazily dump on the system or try suggesting solutions that involve multiplat-porting to platforms that aren't PlayStation. When in reality, what they are suggesting is Sony to run away from addressing root problems with their own product offering in the market to better themselves and their product ecosystem in the market longer-term, in favor of a band-aid solution of porting to other platforms. I do also agree with the idea that a lot of people who make that suggestion either don't know or ignore the fact certain other companies can "get away" with devaluing their console platform with an aggressive porting strategy to systems like PC, because those companies have major vested interests IN some of those other platforms. Sony has no vested interest in PC, they don't own the dominant OS or game development SDK/API package in the PC space nor do they have lucrative licensing agreements with virtually all the PC OEMs for an OS & services.

So the suggestions they not only continue with their current porting strategy to platforms like PC but actually get even more aggressive with it, would just lead to complete destabilization of the console platform and accelerate declines there. We already have a console brand on the market with signs of that (and other things) having led to the exact same pattern of decline, why are some so demanding that PlayStation follow that same track?

Anyway that's maybe getting a bit off-track; I just wanted to say that it doesn't help to deny the software situation in Japan is "perfectly fine" when a lot of evidence suggests it isn't, but also wanted to say that whatever issues exist can 100% be addressed by Sony/SIE going forward and many of those solutions would also produce benefits for the console and brand well beyond just the Japanese market, too.
I do think Sony has made some good first party moves for PS5 (like Rise of Ronin and GT7), and I think a Ghost of Tsushima 2 could be a big success too. I do agree with you that it would benefit Sony if they could find a way to again achieve popular games with wide demographic appeal like Hot Shots Golf, PaRappa the Rapper or Crash Bandicoot.

Having said that, Sony was in fact the biggest publisher of physical games on PS5 from 2020 to 2022 (we don't have the 2023 data yet), so third parties have to do their part too. In the West, PlayStation gets a lot of mega franchises every year (COD, FIFA, Madden, NBA Assassins Creed etc.) and third party publishers are able to put out games that are as big if not bigger than what Nintendo publishes.

Japan doesn't really have the same annual mega franchises, and the balance of power is much more towards Nintendo in that country.
 
Indeed we do. There's a 2022 talk from Sony where they showed this graph, demonstrating that Japan has more relative playtime on F2P than other places.

exqR7Az.png

This chart actually shows that the percentages you're suggesting would be going to F2P don't explain the gap in software sales.

I was more saying that if PS5 had received more appealing games, its software sales would be higher. Like you said, PS4's software sales were helped a lot by a new MGS game, and that has not yet come to PS5. Likewise PS4 benefitted from having some popular Dragon Quest spin offs in its early years. Whereas since the PS5 came out, the two big DQ spin offs have not been released on the platform.

Except we have proof that there is a disconnect here in that FF7 Rebirth is tracking significantly below FF7 Remake, despite essentially selling to the exact same people who bought the first game. What was your explanation for this again?

Anyone buying games on Amazon will not be in addition to the Media Create figures. They will be factored in. Like how NPD use to factor in the Walmart sales before they got direct access to the data.

Media Create will have upweighted the figures they collect to cover the whole market. They are the most trusted tracker for the Japanese market, which is why pretty much all the major publishers are their customers.

Please show me where either Media Create or Famitsu calculates for online purchases and has any understanding of an uptick in online purchases post pandemic?

Edit: They'll be a margin of era just like any other tracker, but I don't think that should mean we don't use them for analysis. If someone asked me how many PS5s were sold in Japan in 2022 I would say "1,189,927", rather than "Media Create doesn't track every single retailer, therefore we have no idea."



I'd say we have enough information to know it is highly likely that software sales are notably down on PS5 vs. PS4. But its also true to say that we don't have much idea about the % of the decline.

Any tracker that doesn't track digital and online sales in an era of digital and online sales, isn't a particularly strong tracker.
 

Orbital2060

Member
Indeed we do. There's a 2022 talk from Sony where they showed this graph, demonstrating that Japan has more relative playtime on F2P than other places.

exqR7Az.png
Thats not proportional to the split that you are suggesting, which would amount to a seismic shift in player habits - millions of players only on F2P - and that there are two different audiences in Japan: one that primarily plays F2P games but who dont buy 3p games at retail, while there clearly is an audience that buys Switch hw + sw at retail, but that these are separate from people that own a PS5. I dont think that is the case.

The real problem here, though, isnt how well the PS5 is doing in Japan, I feel like some people are very touchy when discussing numbers, while the real issue is whats going to happen with third party games developed in Japan when 3p doesnt sell on PlayStation anymore. Thats the crux of the matter, as Im sure you know. Third parties dont get royalties on F2P games. And the question remains: whats going to happen to game development in Japan if the PS hw fail to bring third parties business?
 

Woopah

Member
This chart actually shows that the percentages you're suggesting would be going to F2P don't explain the gap in software sales.



Except we have proof that there is a disconnect here in that FF7 Rebirth is tracking significantly below FF7 Remake, despite essentially selling to the exact same people who bought the first game. What was your explanation for this again?



Please show me where either Media Create or Famitsu calculates for online purchases and has any understanding of an uptick in online purchases post pandemic?



Any tracker that doesn't track digital and online sales in an era of digital and online sales, isn't a particularly strong tracker.

To do that we'd have to compare to F2P playtime on PS4 no? You asked for "evidence to suggest that F2P games make up a larger percentage of games played in Japan as they are in the West". I gave you exactly what you asked for.

Except we have proof that there is a disconnect here in that FF7 Rebirth is tracking significantly below FF7 Remake, despite essentially selling to the exact same people who bought the first game. What was your explanation for this again?
That the Final Fantasy brand is in decline. Its selling less on PS5 than PS4, just like it sold less on PS4 than PS3. The PS5 is still benefitting from getting these exclusive FF games, even though the FF brand is in decline. I think overall software sales would be lower if FF16 and FF Rebirth hadn't released on the platform.

Please show me where either Media Create or Famitsu calculates for online purchases and has any understanding of an uptick in online purchases post pandemic?

That's their job. As a professional tracking company, Media Create needs to take into account the sales from retailers they don't track. Just like how NPD did for Walmart, even when they didn't have direct access to Walmart's numbers.

They'll definitely be a margin of error just like any other tracker. But if Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft, SE, Konami, Sega, Bandai Namco etc. are all happy using Media Create's numbers, then I am too.

Any tracker that doesn't track digital and online sales in an era of digital and online sales, isn't a particularly strong tracker
I agree that it would be better with digital sales. But we don't need digital sales to see the 70% difference in physical sales between the PS4 and PS5.
 

Woopah

Member
Thats not proportional to the split that you are suggesting, which would amount to a seismic shift in player habits - millions of players only on F2P - and that there are two different audiences in Japan: one that primarily plays F2P games but who dont buy 3p games at retail, while there clearly is an audience that buys Switch hw + sw at retail, but that these are separate from people that own a PS5. I dont think that is the case.
It shows about 40% of PS5 playtime is on F2P. If the % of F2P on PS4 was a lot lower than 40 in 2014/2015, then this increase could be a contributing factor. I never said millions of players are only on F2P.

The real problem here, though, isnt how well the PS5 is doing in Japan, I feel like some people are very touchy when discussing numbers, while the real issue is whats going to happen with third party games developed in Japan when 3p doesnt sell on PlayStation anymore. Thats the crux of the matter, as Im sure you know. Third parties dont get royalties on F2P games. And the question remains: whats going to happen to game development in Japan if the PS hw fail to bring third parties business?

In terms of raw numbers, third parties can still get a lot of sales on PS5 from Europe, North America and emerging markets. To maintain their level of sales in Japan, investing in building an audience on PC and Switch/Switch 2 will help a lot. Its a challenge that can be overcome I'd say.
 

Orbital2060

Member
It shows about 40% of PS5 playtime is on F2P. If the % of F2P on PS4 was a lot lower than 40 in 2014/2015, then this increase could be a contributing factor. I never said millions of players are only on F2P.
You would have to assume that millions of Japanese players are only spending time on F2P if you also accept the official numbers on how many consoles are sold in Japan, > 5 million units. Without an explanation of whats going on with software, and 3p software esp,

40 % is still nowhere enough to explain the situation, and what does it even mean in the graph when it says «on F2P»? That doesnt mean they are only playing F2P titles, which is the assumption here.
 

Woopah

Member
You would have to assume that millions of Japanese players are only spending time on F2P if you also accept the official numbers on how many consoles are sold in Japan, > 5 million units. Without an explanation of whats going on with software, and 3p software esp,

40 % is still nowhere enough to explain the situation, and what does it even mean in the graph when it says «on F2P»? That doesnt mean they are only playing F2P titles, which is the assumption here.
Why would I have to assume that?

There's 5 million PS5s sold in Japan, with 40% of the playtime spent on F2P games. That doesn't mean they are only playing F2P games, they can also be buying games as well.

But if the average PS5 owner is spending a greater proportion of their time on F2P than the average PS4 owner was, then that could lead to the PS5 owners buying fewer retail games. Hence F2P would be one of (but not the only) contributing factors to lower software sales.
 

Orbital2060

Member
Why would I have to assume that?

There's 5 million PS5s sold in Japan, with 40% of the playtime spent on F2P games. That doesn't mean they are only playing F2P games, they can also be buying games as well.

But if the average PS5 owner is spending a greater proportion of their time on F2P than the average PS4 owner was, then that could lead to the PS5 owners buying fewer retail games. Hence F2P would be one of (but not the only) contributing factors to lower software sales.
But they arent buying games, thats the problem. If you accept that there are more than 5 million units in Japan, not only sold, then you are going to have to explain how almost all of those 5 million are not buying any games. After the Insomniac breach, it was also clear that an unusually high digital ratio was not the reason. And F2P does not explain it either.

At least you admit that there are more than one contributing factora, contrary to previous posts where you blamed the almost non-existent sw sales solely on F2P.
 
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