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Hurricane Ike: People Not Evacuating Face "Certain Death"

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whytemyke

Honorary Canadian.
wtf? I've never seen a weather service advisory like that. Apparently they're reporting that anyone not evacuating buildings less than 3 stories tall face "certain death." CNN is reporting on TV that as of now they're predicting 20 foot waves hitting Galveston/ Houston area tomorrow night.

I guess I better fill up the gas tank.



(btw, I know there's a hurricane thread but after I saw the severity of this warning I figured it deserves it's own thread.)

edit: found the story on cnn.com
(CNN) -- Residents living in single-family homes in some parts of coastal Texas face "certain death" if they do not heed orders to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival, the National Weather Service said Thursday night.

The unusually strong wording came in a weather advisory regarding storm surge along the shoreline of Galveston Bay, which could see maximum water levels of 15 to 22 feet, the agency said.

"All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide," the advisory said. "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes will face certain death."

The maximum water level forecasts in nearby areas, including the shoreline of Matagorda Bay and the Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to High Island, ranged from 5 to 8 feet. But authorities warned that tide levels could begin rising Friday morning along the upper Texas coast and along the shorelines of the bays.

The advisory comes on the heels of similarly urgent messages earlier Thursday from federal authorities, who warned of a "massive storm" that could affect roughly 40 percent of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

"Do not take this storm lightly," Michael Chertoff, secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, said Thursday afternoon. "This is not a storm to gamble with. It is large; it is powerful; it carries a lot of water."

Chertoff and representatives from the Federal Emergency Management Agency said their efforts were focused on evacuations as Ike, a Category 2 storm about 700 miles across, headed toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with top sustained winds near 100 mph.

Chertoff also urged people not to succumb to "hurricane fatigue," referring to concerns that authorities were overestimating Ike's potential impact.

"Unless you're fatigued with living, I suggest you want to take seriously a storm of this size and scale," he said Thursday. "This is not a game of chicken with Mother Nature."

At 5 p.m. Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said a hurricane warning was in effect between Morgan City, Louisiana, and Baffin Bay, Texas. A warning means hurricane conditions are likely within 24 hours. Watch CNN meteorologists track Hurricane Ike »

A tropical storm warning also is in effect from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Roughly 3.5 million people live in the hurricane's potential impact zone, FEMA Administrator David Paulison said Thursday.

"This hurricane is Mother Nature's weapon of mass destruction," Paulison said after noting the anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

On Thursday, Ike was moving slowly through the central Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center said hurricane conditions may occur on the coast between Morgan City, Louisiana, and Baffin Bay, Texas, by late Friday, with possible landfall near Galveston Island as early as Saturday morning. Track the storm »

As of 5 p.m. ET Thursday, Ike's forecast track was through Galveston and the Houston metro area as a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.

The hurricane center said hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 115 miles from Ike's center, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles.

At 8 p.m. ET, the center of Hurricane Ike was about 475 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, and about 370 miles east-southeast of Galveston, Texas.

Forecasters predict coastal flooding of up to 20 feet above normal tide levels and battering waves near the center of where Ike makes landfall.

In Galveston, which sits on a coastal island, Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas told the island's 60,000 people that they should leave.

Mandatory evacuations were announced for low-lying coastal areas northeast and southwest of Galveston, in Chambers, Matagorda and Brazoria counties. Elsewhere in the state, voluntary evacuations were issued in San Patricio and Victoria counties and parts of Jackson County, according to the governor's office.

Some Brazoria County residents said they didn't want to leave but realized it was in their best interest to do so.

"You don't have a choice when you have kids," Deborah Davis of Freeport told CNN affiliate KPRC-TV in Houston.

Farther inland, about 100,000 residents in low-lying areas surrounding Houston began evacuating Thursday afternoon as Ike headed for the Texas coast, officials said. Watch Gov. Rick Perry warn residents of Ike's potential »

But the remaining 4 million residents were told they could stay home, even as government offices and schools prepared to close Friday in Houston in anticipation of the hurricane.

"We are only evacuating areas subject to a storm surge," said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, the county's chief executive officer. "Yes, we know you will lose electricity. But you're not in danger of losing your life, so stay put."

Ships in port were told to leave, said Port of Houston spokeswoman Linda Whitlock. The area's two major airports, George Bush Intercontinental and William P. Hobby, also halted all commercial flights.

Forecasters said the storm stood a 41 percent change of slamming into the Texas coast late Friday or early Saturday as a Category 3 storm, with winds between 111 mph and 130 mph.

There was a 25 percent possibility Ike could be a Category 2, with wind speeds between 96 mph and 110 mph, at landfall, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said.

More than 1,300 inmates from the Texas Correctional Institutions Division's Stevenson Unit in Cuero were being evacuated to facilities in Beeville and Kenedy, Perry's office said, and 597 were transferred from the substance abuse Glossbrenner Unit in San Diego, in south Texas, to Dilley.

Evacuations appeared to have saved lives in Cuba when Ike slammed into the island. Four deaths were reported from the storm, according to the Cuban government. The Cuban Civil Defense brought buses or trucks to take people to shelters. Watch Cubans wade through the streets »

The United States, which provided $100,000 in emergency aid to communist-run Cuba through private aid agencies after Hurricane Gustav hit the island August 30, said it was considering additional emergency aid for Cuba because of Ike.
 

DrFunk

not licensed in your state
Have you seen the advisory for hurricane Katrina? It pretty much said the same thing. I hope all those there will be fine, but man, I got a bad feeling about this.

Edit:

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!


damn, that shit is scary
 

Rindain

Banned
Gustav was the fake-out, Ike will be the real thing. It's *finally* getting the coverage it deserves, only about 24 hours before landfall.

Also, the kinetic energy of this thing is mind-boggling, the second-highest in 40 years, and higher than Katrina's.
 

whytemyke

Honorary Canadian.
everytime I think of Katrina I think of what could have been... I remember that 'cane was a Cat5 like a day before landfall and then the eye collapsed on itself. If that thing hit at a Cat5, well, we probably still wouldn't have anyone in New Orleans.

Rindain said:
Gustav was the fake-out, Ike will be the real thing. It's *finally* getting the coverage it deserves, only about 24 hours before landfall.

Also, the kinetic energy of this thing is mind-boggling, the second-highest in 40 years, and higher than Katrina's.

That's what's so incredible to me, is the sheer POWER of this thing. 700 miles wide is ridiculous. To put that into perspective, that's from New York City to Indianapolis.
 

greepoman

Member
Rindain said:
Gustav was the fake-out, Ike will be the real thing. It's *finally* getting the coverage it deserves, only about 24 hours before landfall.

Also, the kinetic energy of this thing is mind-boggling, the second-highest in 40 years, and higher than Katrina's.

How did you get that estimate? Just by the size?
 

dskillzhtown

keep your strippers out of my American football
What the hell is kinetic energy?

edit -

For a mature hurricane, the amount of kinetic energy generated is equal to that being dissipated due to friction. The dissipation rate per unit area is air density times the drag coefficient times the windspeed cubed (See Emanuel 1999 for details). One could either integrate a typical wind profile over a range of radii from the hurricane's center to the outer radius encompassing the storm, or assume an average windspeed for the inner core of the hurricane. Doing the latter and using 40 m/s (90 mph) winds on a scale of radius 60 km (40 n.mi.), one gets a wind dissipation rate (wind generation rate) of
 

Rindain

Banned
greepoman said:
How did you get that estimate? Just by the size?

I got it from this Weather Underground blog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Jeff Masters said:
The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 10% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's....This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge...The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 12:30pm EDT today, Ike earned a 5.2 on this scale, the second highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 had the highest.
 

captive

Joe Six-Pack: posting for the common man
Numbers and formulas are great, but to the general populace they mean very little. They should do all the formulas and numbers in the back ground then say its a cat 5 or whatever call it "get the fuck out of the way of this storm" level.

I'm 75 miles inland, so the storm surge will not affect us that much. Granted pretty much all of Houston is always susceptible to flash flooding. Its the wind thats going to be a problem. I'm always weary of people that say things like "my house is good for 200 mph winds," yea but what about everyone elses houses and or trees. Doesnt matter what your house is rated for when someone elses roof flies into your house.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Is there any satellite picture of this, or has there ever been any of Katrina? Like, Google-map-like quality?
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Fuck, I live in Austin and that storm looks dangerous enough to make me want to go out and clean out walmart/HEB.
 

whytemyke

Honorary Canadian.
teh_pwn said:
Fuck, I live in Austin and that storm looks dangerous enough to make me want to go out and clean out walmart/HEB.
it'll be a nasty storm but if you're in Austin you should be alright. The devastation from this storm is gonna be the water but everything past Houston should calm down rather quickly. I mean, you won't wanna play outside, haha, but I don't think you'll have to board up the windows either.



they just bumped it to a Cat3 as well.
 

Zoe

Member
teh_pwn said:
Fuck, I live in Austin and that storm looks dangerous enough to make me want to go out and clean out walmart/HEB.

Dammit, I knew I was forgetting something on the way home.

whytemyke said:
it'll be a nasty storm but if you're in Austin you should be alright. The devastation from this storm is gonna be the water but everything past Houston should calm down rather quickly. I mean, you won't wanna play outside, haha, but I don't think you'll have to board up the windows either.

Oh, there's no doubt we'll make it out safely, but all the evacuees and alarmists will make getting around this weekend feel like hell.
 

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
labyrinth_guards1.jpg


TRY ONE OF THESE DOORS.

ONE OF THEM LEADS TO THE CASTLE,

AND THE OTHER ONE LEADS TO--

BA BA BA BUM!

CERTAIN DEATH!

OOH! OOH!
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Well I don't want to drive. I've lived long enough in Austin to know that the roads have shit for traction when it rains. Flooding seems to only be a problem near lake Travis and I guess that river near downtown.

But I have realized that I don't have much in terms of non-perishable food. Chances are power will go out at some point...
 

Weapxn

Mikkelsexual
I am glad I live in Austin. I'm sure we'll get a storm and some evacuees, but we're so far inland that that should be about it.
 

Chumly

Member
whytemyke said:
wtf? I've never seen a weather service advisory like that. Apparently they're reporting that anyone not evacuating buildings less than 3 stories tall face "certain death." CNN is reporting on TV that as of now they're predicting 20 foot waves hitting Galveston/ Houston area tomorrow night.

I guess I better fill up the gas tank.



(btw, I know there's a hurricane thread but after I saw the severity of this warning I figured it deserves it's own thread.)

edit: found the story on cnn.com
This was pretty much aimed at people staying in Galveston/Very low lying areas. More specifically at Galveston because the mayor made some dumbass comment that people didnt have to evacuate and it was going to just be like Hurricane Rita (They had finally issued a mandatory evac for Galv though).

Does it have potential to be a bust like Gustav? Of course theres always the chance. But theres a much greater chance for an incredible storm surge that could be very deadly if you dont evac.
 
whytemyke said:
they just bumped it to a Cat3 as well.

where? the 10pm CDT update by nhc has it at 100mph, and 110+ is cat3, so link?

also, has anyone else noticed this thing is as large as the entire gulf of mexico?
 

Phoenix

Member
kkaabboomm said:
where? the 10pm CDT update by nhc has it at 100mph, and 110+ is cat3, so link?

also, has anyone else noticed this thing is as large as the entire gulf of mexico?


It is not officially a category 3. That's being predicted before landfall though.
 

whytemyke

Honorary Canadian.
kkaabboomm said:
where? the 10pm CDT update by nhc has it at 100mph, and 110+ is cat3, so link?

also, has anyone else noticed this thing is as large as the entire gulf of mexico?
heard it on cnn earlier... chad meyers is a douchebag though, so who knows :lol
 

Nicodimas

Banned
I was reading somewhere there is going to be a huge spike in Gas prices over the weekend. Over +1.50 to put it over five bucks! Preety crazy if true.

I topped off my gas today just incase for 3.50.
 

captive

Joe Six-Pack: posting for the common man
Nicodimas said:
I was reading somewhere there is going to be a huge spike in Gas prices over the weekend. Over +1.50 to put it over five bucks! Preety crazy if true.

I topped off my gas today just incase for 3.50.
Not crazy at all. All the off shore oil rigs have all long been evacuated. All the refinery's in the port of Houston have long since been evacuated, this isnt even taking into account what if any damage is done to them, and for how long they are offline.
 

whytemyke

Honorary Canadian.
yeah, i'm going out tomorrow morning to fill up the tank. i gotta drive from chi to detroit next week... could suck ass.
 
OK that's scary. I've got a good friend in Houston who said he's boarded up and wants to wait out the storm. I really hope this is just blown out of proportion.
 

Phoenix

Member
AmMortal said:
How big is this one going to be?

Katrina big? Or bigger?!


Overall size wise it is bigger. The storm reach is freaking incredible! The storm hasn't even made landfall and already the outer bands are dropping rain on New Orleans, much of the Gulf Coast including the Florida coastline, and that landmass to the south of the United States :)

at200809_sat.jpg




Whether or not it will have the same destructive impact as Katrina remains to be seen, but its definitely hitting an area where it can do some decent damage.
 

Miguel

Member
People are being ridiculous.

Sure, it's gonna be a big ass storm...


But...

1. We are NOT 50 feet below sea level.
2. We do not have the fucking biggest river in the goddamn United States next to us seperated by a faulty levee system.
3. Wind damage will suck. Flooding will occur, Unless Ike hover's over us for 4 days like Allison did, I think we'll be OK in the long run.

Although if you guys don't see me after this weekend...



Rors gets my PS3
bluemax gets my TV
Alex Anderson gets my David Carr posters
Matrix gets my Ausmus bobblehead
 
Pffft. It is just category 2 right now.

They just want to scare people into evacuating to minimize deaths. That is a dangerous game . . . it may work this time but next the people will not evacuate because they'll figure the government is just over-exaggerating the damage potential.

Just give the people the honest facts and let them decide for themselves. If they die, it is their fault.
 

AmMortal

Banned
Phoenix said:
Overall size wise it is bigger. The storm reach is freaking incredible! The storm hasn't even made landfall and already the outer bands are dropping rain on New Orleans, much of the Gulf Coast including the Florida coastline, and that landmass to the south of the United States :)

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_sat.jpg

Whether or not it will have the same destructive impact as Katrina remains to be seen, but its definitely hitting an area where it can do some decent damage.

:O

That's like 19% of the overall United States Landmass!
 

chubigans

y'all should be ashamed
Miguel said:
People are being ridiculous.

Sure, it's gonna be a big ass storm...


But...

1. We are NOT 50 feet below sea level.
2. We do not have the fucking biggest river in the goddamn United States next to us seperated by a faulty levee system.
3. Wind damage will suck. Flooding will occur, Unless Ike hover's over us for 4 days like Allison did, I think we'll be OK in the long run.
I sure hope so; my cousin's sister is in Houston (Pearland) and I'm a bit worried. :\
 

Weapxn

Mikkelsexual
Miguel said:
People are being ridiculous.

Sure, it's gonna be a big ass storm...


But...

1. We are NOT 50 feet below sea level.
This is true. No one is really thinking about how New Orleans is basically a giant bowl and was pretty much asking to be filled up like that. It's still cause enough to be alarmed, even just looking at its size.
 

Miguel

Member
chubigans said:
I sure hope so; my cousin's sister is in Houston (Pearland) and I'm a bit worried. :\
Pearland is not Houston. tell her to GTFO to at least the actual Houston area. Pearland is like, 25 mins from the coast.

Edit: I think that area is under mandatory Evac anyway.
 

Phoenix

Member
Weapxn said:
This is true. No one is really thinking about how New Orleans is basically a giant bowl and was pretty much asking to be filled up like that. It's still cause enough to be alarmed, even just looking at its size.


New Orleans is not a giant bowl - such sensational foolishness.
 

chubigans

y'all should be ashamed
Miguel said:
Pearland is not Houston. tell her to GTFO to at least the actual Houston area. Pearland is like, 25 mins from the coast.

Edit: I think that area is under mandatory Evac anyway.
I'm doing some digging and for some reason Pearland is the only one not under mandatory evac. Huh.
 
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