Like I was so scared that Switch be like wiiU 2.0 before launch. I don't think I'm mentally ready, the failure of sega has always traumatized me.
Theoretically there is almost no chance that it will not work:
Game Pass and other great services
Really good consoles
15 First party studios
Pro consumer
big US / UK supports
I think if they fail to make a big dent this coming gen, MS drop the console hardware business. They’ll figure 360 was the high water mark. I can see a branded line of Xbox-ready PCs with a living room form factor - but no more custom hardware.
On the one hand, as consumers we need competition, on the other hand MS aren’t really up to it on the evidence of the last 15 years.
So if they can’t commit properly it’s better they leave a space for a consumer electronics company to occupy.
The studios MS has aren’t in a position offer AAA games yet - they might start appearing in 2023 - the gen is near half over by then and Sony will have an unassailable lead.
Gamepass doesn’t lock people into the platform. In fact it makes it easier to just dip in and out.
So that leaves MS track record for sales performance. And their track record isn’t good.
There’s no magic bullet in my opinion. The Xsex launch can be ignored - the “big” news is that MS is finally gonna release Halo this Christmas.
It’s just a coincidence Xsex is launching the same time given it’s not required to play that game.
Halo is playable on 4 platforms - 3 of which most Halo fans already have - maybe 5 if Lockhart comes out.
Their strategy won’t lead to the big dent I started by saying they’d need. That means this is MS last hardware gen in my opinion.
In fact that’s probably the best sales pitch MS have - “please buy our console, we’re not making another one and when they’re all sold we’re not manufacturing any more.”
MS jump out after that first round of 1st party games don’t make an impact, and xsex gets a stream of too late games from the first party’s that are decent to good, and people have fond memories.
The future is a company like LG or Samsung. They’re the ones who know how to compete for the “living room” and would derive real value from having a gaming console alongside their product lineup. I want to see what they could produce with MS not blocking entry.