leatherhat
Member
The world's economy is going to change drastically by 2065. Do you think the way the economy works now (constant growth in consumption and population) can continue? It's going to crash one way or another.
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Japan's population to shrink by a third by 2065
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The world's economy is going to change drastically by 2065. Do you think the way the economy works now (constant growth in consumption and population) can continue? It's going to crash one way or another.
Or maybe they can incentivize higher birthrates as well. Immigration isn't the end all be all of low birthrates. Promote a culture where motherhood isn't a hindrance to a career. The same issues persist in the west. How many women can affors to go to school, have a career with a child? Imagine if things like universal daycare, corporations having nurseries and pre-schools for people with children, transit was cost effective and safe, rent was controlled and not subject to speculation. The fact just is, the average young man or woman, children are a burden, and it is tough to have one child let alone 2 or more.
Yeah, an economy of conspicuous consumption isn't sustainable. Especially with billions of people on an Earth with very limited resources.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
It's literally a biological imperative. More people in the population makes the species resilient to adverse conditions, as long as the issues of large populations (food scarcity and illness/disease spread, which we can basically ignore in developed countries) are controlled. More people also means more chances at improvement (in that discoveries are made by people and so more people can only improve our chances).
There's a direct relationship between the massive gains in quality of life and population increases in the last few hundred years. Better lives -> more people -> new discoveries in engineering, medicine, etc... -> better lives -> and so on and so on...
Yeah. This is a natural side effect, when a county opts not to support working families (and particularly, working mothers). If you make it impossible to do both (career and family), women will stop having babies. (Although, I guess you could go the Republican route - deny access to abortions and limit access to birth control, to force women into having more babies).
John Kowalski
Banned
It's about time we leave
Give the other species a chance at mutual destruction and chronic lack of self esteem
Give the other species a chance at mutual destruction and chronic lack of self esteem
Economic stability, workforce strength, population morale and diversity of the gene pool.
Capitalism assumes constant growth. Can't have a nation built on capital if your workforce (the creators of capital) is declining.
thehypocrite
Member
That isn't the topic.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
There's still large amounts of theory to control and systems engineering that is not fully understand. You be astonished by the amount of money they pay control engineers to essentially work by trial and error to achieve ideal response when your working with extremely complex control systems. Lots of work still needs to be done academically. Advancements in AI help with efficiency but someone has to come up with the mathematical model for the specific scenario. All of that takes time and money. This is ignoring the costs legal repercussions and everything else that comes with this. In certain industries automatisation will not simply replace in the majority of jobs in a decade or two there's still ways to go.
Dark Ninja
Member
Japan to have cyborgs by 2065
thehypocrite
Member
Let's assume that you are right, how does automation and a smaller population are a solution and a benefit for this post scarcity economy (of which you give no details btw) that you consider inevitable?
I agree, but I think we have different expectations for when those advances come about.
leatherhat
Member
A joke no doubt, but cyborgs will certainly exist in 2065. Assuming the world doesn't destroy itself. They already exist now in a very limited sense. The real revolution, however, will be AI capable of human like thought.
CodeTalker
Neo Member
Do they need any men to help repopulate by making lots of babies ? I would be happy to contribute 
leatherhat
Member
Post scarcity is an economic concept. Feel free to google it.
The bigger issue is that you need a certain ratio of workers to retired people or supporting them becomes unsustainable.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...on-payments-system-set-overhaul/#.WO0Z-6Lavcs
I don't think it's even necessary to have an AI capable of human thought. Just enough thought to create outputs outside initial inputs.
It mostly just accelerates the problem, but yeah, agreed.
Erotic fanfics and rule 34's shall never be the same again.
FairFriend
Member
actually it does make sense from a biological point of view. If homosexuality is coded through genes, as it's been suggested by some studies (I've just read that in Susan Blackmore's The Meme Machine), then the only means through which it can be passed to the next generation is reproduction. So, if the assumption is valid, homosexuality would not exist if gay and lesbians had not been coerced in heterosexual relationships.
I just wanted to write this because I had never given much thought about this eventuality, and I was surprised when I read the aforementioned book; obviously it goes without saying that the argument falls apart if genes do not play any role whatsoever in establishing one's sexual orientation.
TheRealTalker
Banned
Immigration also leads to economic diversity and growth:
While Japan hasn't seen as many new companies and ideas:
Plus factor in the reality that people ignore that it is actually more costly to raise up a Japanese born citizen compared to taking in a skilled immigrant who has already been raised and spent on by another country.
The integration costs are actually far lower then the costs used to raise someone since birth.
Then there the whole role of Japan's terrible internship laws which are literally akin to something you would see in Gulf Arab states:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt__lHCuH5g
To many factors need to be changed for Japan if it wants to maintain the costs of taking care of all the future seniors the country will soon have.
While Japan hasn't seen as many new companies and ideas:
Plus factor in the reality that people ignore that it is actually more costly to raise up a Japanese born citizen compared to taking in a skilled immigrant who has already been raised and spent on by another country.
The integration costs are actually far lower then the costs used to raise someone since birth.
Then there the whole role of Japan's terrible internship laws which are literally akin to something you would see in Gulf Arab states:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt__lHCuH5g
To many factors need to be changed for Japan if it wants to maintain the costs of taking care of all the future seniors the country will soon have.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
In a post scarcity world, the population level (high or low) wouldn't matter. It's implicit in the name.
It's fantasy though, it's not happening in our lifetime.
Steeped in a Sea of Games
Member
Did anyone bring up that dead village filled with mannequins yet?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-dolls-widerimage-idUSKBN0MC0ME20150316
Creeps me out, honestly.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-dolls-widerimage-idUSKBN0MC0ME20150316
Creeps me out, honestly.
I agree.
To be honest, I wouldn't stay in Japan for longer than 5 years unless a company hires me for a high level job. The salary is much lower than in my country and the work condition isn't very good either. My Japanese friend frequently complained about the rude male working climate, she is sick of all the yellings, lol.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
I think it's nice.
Even if a person is half-Japanese, it seems they're not full accepted. The outrage surrounding those Miss Japan winners demonstrates that.
What is your friend's ethnic background?
What is your friend's ethnic background?
perfectchaos007
Member
40% of adults 18-35 in Japan are virgins. I remember reading that on GAF
Would also help if they didn't try to kill women's careers. Spit out a kid? Stop working. Stop working and spit out a kid.
This is a problem in all western cultures as well. Couples don't want kids due to the cost but the government feels at ease slashing whatever help there exists and then when lower income houses don't stop fucking we don't feel like helping them become achievers.
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Keigo Japanese is maddening.
Ftfy
This is a problem in all western cultures as well. Couples don't want kids due to the cost but the government feels at ease slashing whatever help there exists and then when lower income houses don't stop fucking we don't feel like helping them become achievers.
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Keigo Japanese is maddening.
Ftfy
He's Malaysian with Chinese and Malay parents. Funnily enough, unless you knew that you wouldn't be able to tell him apart from a regular Japanese man.
Not that it matters, his superiors and coworkers know he's not from Japan. He's worked for that company for half a decade and they still treat him as an outsider.
poppedcollar69
Member
Other people in the thread have brought up automation, but we desperately need to challenge this particular assumption.
Automation produces massive wealth without requiring people to be employed. That is the entire point. Currently, that created wealth flows directly to the wealthy people in society who own firms. If that wealth is redistributed, then we could easily sustain a population where retirees greatly outnumber the number of people in the labor force.
Vinsanity.
Member
perfectchaos007
Member
Crazy. How can anyone get off to that censored genitalia bullshit
By allowing almost everything, just as long it's censored.
That or fucking a doll while having a cutie making the dolls sexy noises? I know what I would have preferred.
People have been saying this since Thomas Malthus came around in 1798. So no, I don't think it should be taken as an absolute given that we will have hit some upper limit in 50 years.
You may very well be right that we will hit some upper limit on population and consumption, but still be wildly off about the timing.
The problem with shrinking your population is that you need to do it sustainably. You can't have most of your population geriatric and unproductive unless you really do have Jetson robots because otherwise the young have to work harder (and exacerbate the problem) or you have a major humanitarian crisis.
Immigrants is a fine, easy fix and best of all you can actually control who it is, so you can get a net influx of smarter and more talented people. It's always appreciated when you allow refugees but that's not the only kind of immigration and right now Japan is way too strict.
Also, fix your goddam work priorities. It's great if you feel good from working, but not everybody can deal with it. Metrics over perception.
Immigrants is a fine, easy fix and best of all you can actually control who it is, so you can get a net influx of smarter and more talented people. It's always appreciated when you allow refugees but that's not the only kind of immigration and right now Japan is way too strict.
Also, fix your goddam work priorities. It's great if you feel good from working, but not everybody can deal with it. Metrics over perception.
Zoe
Member
But do they really need the "smarter and more talented people"? Most of the issues brought up in the thread point towards needing more caregivers and filling the menial jobs that the locals don't want to do.
Of course that introduces the problem of a clear sub-class.
Last Prime
Member
Did anyone bring up that dead village
Granny Chiyo!
Whatever happens in Japan will be an important lesson for the rest of the world's countries. Can automation make up for a shrinking population? Will it change their work culture for the better? Can their neo-isolationist policies be made viable?
50 years is a long ass time. We're all going to have to figure our shit out by 2065 and I don't think "continue exponentially increasing the population" will be the answer.
50 years is a long ass time. We're all going to have to figure our shit out by 2065 and I don't think "continue exponentially increasing the population" will be the answer.
thehypocrite
Member
I'm sure it is. What's the definition of it that you are using, and you avoided answering the question.
MikeHattsu
Member
You know, there's a reason why Daily Mail is a banned source here...
huge elderly base that is dependent on small young population. Economy in general will likely be less efficient. Amongst many other things
This is actually a trend occurring in many nations, but generally most countries try to curb it with immigration. Immigration alone won't fix this however
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