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Launch aligned sales numbers after 48 months in the US and Japan for PS4, NSW, and XB1

In the States, Parents will buy Nintendo for their kids without question. Never underestimate that kid (Parent) money.

After Christmas they all played Spiderman Remastered on PS5 (at my place) and now that's all they want. Never underestimate console exclusives.
 
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Bodomism

Banned
In the States, Parent will buy Nintendo for their kids without question. Never underestimate that kid (Parent) money.

After Christmas they all played Spiderman Remastered on PS5 and now that's all they want. Never underestimate console exclusives.
The same parents that refused to buy the WiiU? 🤔
 

sackings

Member
Switch numbers are super impressive until you realize theres no longer any 3DS hw/sw sales. Pretty sure 90% of peoples play time in Japan is on the go, not at home in docked mode. It's more of a handheld than a home console.
 

Bodomism

Banned
I took my time to show the actual situation with official data.
They next quarter the diff will probably frop to around 7m.

QuarterPS4PS4 CumulativeSwitchSwitch CumulativeDifference
14,54,52,742,74-1,76
237,51,974,71-2,79
32,710,22,927,63-2,57
43,313,57,2414,871,37
56,419,92,9217,79-2,11
62,422,32,1319,92-2,38
7325,32,9422,86-2,44
8429,39,4232,282,98
98,437,72,4634,74-2,96
102,3402,1336,87-3,13
113,543,54,841,67-1,83
123,947,410,8152,485,08
139,757,13,2955,77-1,33
142,9605,6861,451,45
153,363,36,8568,35
164,267,511,5779,8712,37
17976,5
182,579
193,282,2
203,986,1
218,194,2

Edit - Fixed. I missed a PS4 quarter.
Looking at this chart you can see Nintendo Switch was trading blows against PS4 until Animal Crossing kicked in and Switch doesn't need to look back anymore.

Switch Q4 is going to break another record with 5-6M units shipment.
 

Bodomism

Banned
Switch numbers are super impressive until you realize theres no longer any 3DS hw/sw sales. Pretty sure 90% of peoples play time in Japan is on the go, not at home in docked mode. It's more of a handheld than a home console.
Switch is tracking to outsell both WiiU and 3DS combined in Japan.
 

ChrisB

Member
The mental gymnastics are TASTY.
Isnt this whole thread just mental gymnastics?
OP left out EU data. Did the full life cycle of Switch knowing last year was a huge spike due to covid (switch was the only hardware available for some time).
Switch is doing well no doubt but don’t act like we’re swimming in new games (Yes we because I’m a switch owner).
 

yurinka

Member
Sold-through numbers for both countries

US(NPD)
PS4 ~20.2M
NSW ~27M
XB1 ~17.3M

Japan(Famitsu)
PS4 ~6.3M
NSW ~18.5M
XB1 ~98K

Total of US+Japan
PS4 ~26.5M
NSW ~45.5M
XB1 ~17.4M
Why don't you include worlwide numbers? It would include EMEA, the biggest PlayStation market.

I took my time to show the actual situation with official data.
They next quarter the diff will probably drop to around 7m.

QuarterPS4PS4 CumulativeSwitchSwitch CumulativeDifference
14,54,52,742,74-1,76
237,51,974,71-2,79
32,710,22,927,63-2,57
43,313,57,2414,871,37
56,419,92,9217,79-2,11
62,422,32,1319,92-2,38
7325,32,9422,86-2,44
8429,39,4232,282,98
98,437,72,4634,74-2,96
102,3402,1336,87-3,13
113,543,54,841,67-1,83
123,947,410,8152,485,08
139,757,13,2955,77-1,33
142,9605,6861,451,45
153,363,36,8568,35
164,267,511,5779,8712,37
17976,5
182,579
193,282,2
203,986,1
218,194,2

Edit - Fixed. I missed a PS4 quarter.
This comparision makes more sense.

Even more if you align the quarters by fiscal years (PS4 had an extra Q3 at the start) to see how each console evolved each quarter/fiscal year and to balance the Winter Holidays. You'll see that excluding that extra PS4 had its lead mainly because its extra months at the start, then both PS4 and Switch had a pretty similar performance until Covid happened and Switch catched up even compensating the lead PS4 had fom its extra months:

Quarter PS4 PS4 Cumulative Switch Switch Cumulative Difference
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 4,5 4,5 NA NA -4,5
2 3 7,5 2,74 2,74 -4,75
---------------------------------------
3 2,7 10,2 1,97 4,71 -5,49
4 3,3 13,5 2,92 7,63 -5.87
5 6,4 19,9 7,24 14,87 -5.03
6 2,4 22,3 2,92 17,79 -4.51
---------------------------------------
7 3 25,3 2,13 19,92 -5,38
8 4 29,3 2,94 22,86 -6,44
9 8,4 37,7 9,42 32,28 -5,42
10 2,3 40 2,46 34,74 -5,26
---------------------------------------
11 3,5 43,5 2,13 36,87 -6,63
12 3,9 47,4 4,8 41,67 -5,73
13 9,7 57,1 10,81 52,48 -4.62
14 2,9 60 3,29 55,77 -4,23
---------------------------------------
15 3,3 63,3 5,68 61,45 -1,85
16 4,2 67,5 6,85 68,3 0.8
17 9 76,5 11,57 79,87 3,37
18 2,5 79
---------------------------------------
19 3,2 82,2
20 3,9 86,1
21 8,1 94,2

By doing it in this way you understand why the pre-Covid Nintendo originally expected to sell 19M this current FY: it's what PS4 sold in the same fiscal year.

If you remove this extra quarter PS4 had at the start (so 4.5 from all the values of the difference column) you'll see they have been performing pretty much the same until covid.
 
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Woopah

Member
Why don't you include worlwide numbers? It would include EMEA, the biggest PlayStation market.
We unfortunately don't get EMEA data the same way we do for US and Japan. Luckily, for Nintendo and Sony platforms we get worldwide shipment from the companies themselves.

cjYv2qA.png
 

yurinka

Member
We unfortunately don't get EMEA data the same way we do for US and Japan. Luckily, for Nintendo and Sony platforms we get worldwide shipment from the companies themselves.
Yep, I was talking about this worldwide shipment numbers. They offer a more complete picture than instead looking at 2 countries and ignoring the biggest market of one of the consoles being compared.

Your comparision table is my favorite one. As bet I think for Switch it will be:
-Peak FY4 / The one ending now, before covid Nintendo expected to be FY3
-Succesor FY6 (Q4) / Switch 2 to be released March 2023
-Revision FY3 (Lite) & FY5 (XL) / Switch XL to be released November 2021

I suggest you to add which FY was discontinued each console. Because there's a difference between PS vs Nintendo handhelds+Wii vs Nintendo or MS home consoles.

I think Switch will have a launch aligned lead for a while when compared to PS4, but in the long term, once both get discontinued, PS4 will end selling more than Switch because it will be more years in the market selling consoles.
 
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Hardensoul

Gold Member
We unfortunately don't get EMEA data the same way we do for US and Japan. Luckily, for Nintendo and Sony platforms we get worldwide shipment from the companies themselves.

cjYv2qA.png
Comparing launch align by quarters is not a good comparison either, because Switch Launch in March and PS4 launch in November which is a holiday quarter. We all know, consoles do most of their sales during the Holiday shopping season. Which your chart clearly shows that 3rd quarter dwarfs the rest of the year. Currently PS4 already had 5 Holidays vs Switch 4 Holidays.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Comparing launch align by quarters is not a good comparison either, because Switch Launch in March and PS4 launch in November which is a holiday quarter. We all know, consoles do most of their sales during the Holiday shopping season. Which your chart clearly shows that 3rd quarter dwarfs the rest of the year. Currently PS4 already had 5 Holidays vs Switch 4 Holidays.
They is not the case.

Switch: Launch + 4 holidays
PS4: Launch + 3 holidays

Next quarter PS4 will have Launch + 4 holidays like Switch... the best comparison will be next-quarter.

You will say but Launch = Holiday for PS4... yes but it was heavy supply constrained... PS4 holidays are way over 4.5m that is why it is considered Launch and not Holiday sales.

We can argue Switch had 1 month in Launch quarter while PS4 had 2 months but that is impossible to separated... Switch could be very close to 4.5m with two months but we will never know.

What we know is that even with these little difference PS4 and Switch were tracking close each other until Covid-19 boosted Switch sales (actually it boosted overall videogame sales)... 2020 was where Switch started to track a part from PS4.
 
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Bodomism

Banned
Yep, I was talking about this worldwide shipment numbers. They offer a more complete picture than instead looking at 2 countries and ignoring the biggest market of one of the consoles being compared.

Your comparision table is my favorite one. As bet I think for Switch it will be:
-Peak FY4 / The one ending now, before covid Nintendo expected to be FY3
-Succesor FY6 (Q4) / Switch 2 to be released March 2023
-Revision FY3 (Lite) & FY5 (XL) / Switch XL to be released November 2021

I suggest you to add which FY was discontinued each console. Because there's a difference between PS vs Nintendo handhelds+Wii vs Nintendo or MS home consoles.

I think Switch will have a launch aligned lead for a while when compared to PS4, but in the long term, once both get discontinued, PS4 will end selling more than Switch because it will be more years in the market selling consoles.
PS4 barely shipped 1.4M last holiday quarter, at this speed Nintendo Switch is going to overtake PS4 total sales in 2022.

Switch is going to stay very long
+Official price cut
+New revision/pro model
+AAA titles like next Gen Pokemon, New Remake Pokemon, BOTW2, New 3D Mario, Splatoon 2, MP4, and etc.
+Aggressive holiday promotion
 

Woopah

Member
Yep, I was talking about this worldwide shipment numbers. They offer a more complete picture than instead looking at 2 countries and ignoring the biggest market of one of the consoles being compared.

Your comparision table is my favorite one. As bet I think for Switch it will be:
-Peak FY4 / The one ending now, before covid Nintendo expected to be FY3
-Succesor FY6 (Q4) / Switch 2 to be released March 2023
-Revision FY3 (Lite) & FY5 (XL) / Switch XL to be released November 2021

I suggest you to add which FY was discontinued each console. Because there's a difference between PS vs Nintendo handhelds+Wii vs Nintendo or MS home consoles.

I think Switch will have a launch aligned lead for a while when compared to PS4, but in the long term, once both get discontinued, PS4 will end selling more than Switch because it will be more years in the market selling consoles.
I think a FY4 peak is the most likely, but I'd also give it a 20% chance of FY5 being the peak if both the Switch Plus and BOTW make it out this holiday season.

I'm also not sure PS4 will be on the market longer, as Sony seems pretty intent on moving production to PS5 as quick as possible (not surprising given the chip shortage). I think March 2023 could have seen the Switch successor launch pre-COVID, but the pandemic has pushed all their plans back.

I can't see Nintendo putting out a Switch successor without a strong lineup of games to back it up, and right now most of their major teams are looking to launch games in last 2021 and 2020. Simply put, Nintendo won't have their next generation software ready until 2024.

Comparing launch align by quarters is not a good comparison either, because Switch Launch in March and PS4 launch in November which is a holiday quarter. We all know, consoles do most of their sales during the Holiday shopping season. Which your chart clearly shows that 3rd quarter dwarfs the rest of the year. Currently PS4 already had 5 Holidays vs Switch 4 Holidays.
Its not the perfect comparison, but I think its the best we can do given the nature available to us. At the moment we are comparing 16 quarters to 16 quarter so both have 4 holidays
 

Hardensoul

Gold Member
They is not the case.

Switch: Launch + 4 holidays
PS4: Launch + 3 holidays

Next quarter PS4 will have Launch + 4 holidays like Switch... the best comparison will be next-quarter.

You will say but Launch = Holiday for PS4... yes but it was heavy supply constrained... PS4 holidays are way over 4.5m that is why it is considered Launch and not Holiday sales.

We can argue Switch had 1 month in Launch quarter while PS4 had 2 months but that is impossible to separated... Switch could be very close to 4.5m with two months but we will never know.

What we know is that even with these little difference PS4 and Switch were tracking close each other until Covid-19 boosted Switch sales (actually it boosted overall videogame sales)... 2020 was where Switch started to track a part from PS4.
Look at the chart again, how can you say PS4 only had 3 Holidays. That is 5 Holiday quarters in yellow, how can PS4 have less Holidays? PS4 literally launch in November it's first Holiday.

Miy6yax.jpg
 
It'll be interesting to see how things look after the next bunch of major releases. The fact they have kept the momentum going despite not having a single price drop on the hardware or games is insane.
 
Look at the chart again, how can you say PS4 only had 3 Holidays. That is 5 Holiday quarters in yellow, how can PS4 have less Holidays? PS4 literally launch in November it's first Holiday.

Miy6yax.jpg

His point is launching your console in the holiday seasion wipes out any benefit from launching in the holidays

Whether the PS4 launched in March 2013 or November 2013 they will have sold the same amount of untis

Same applies to Switch. If they launched in November instead of March they will have sold the same amount of units
 
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MrA

Member
Nintendo, the only entertainment company in the world that hasn't grown in 12 years despite unprecedented stay-at-home demand due to the global pandemic.

bbabf699450f8b31a7b1fb6cecc429ffc7565ee0.jpg

cb93982db7641aab7e61c42c4807444ec3887ba3.jpg


Weak software sales dependent on ten Nintendo games, low digital sales, MAU and paid subscribers reflect an outdated business model masked by Covid lockdowns.

Microsoft's sales could overtake Nintendo's very soon, something unimaginable in 2008.
when you see the obscene amount of money made by FIFA's ultimate team and shark cards do you get excited? because that is where sony and Microsoft make their money
 

Hardensoul

Gold Member
His point is launching your console in the holiday seasion wipes out any benefit from launching in the holidays

Whether the PS4 launched in March 2013 or November 2013 they will have sold the same amount of untis

Same applies to Switch. If they launched in November instead of March they will have sold the same amount of units

Sure, but I disagree. Just look at the launch number month and next quarter. PS4 sold more is that due to Holiday? and No Holiday for Switch? We will never know. But he also made a mistake in saying PS4 had less holidays if you disregard the Launch month/Quarter for PS4 that's still 4 Holidays for Both consoles not less for PS4(3 Holidays}
 

yurinka

Member
I'm also not sure PS4 will be on the market longer, as Sony seems pretty intent on moving production to PS5 as quick as possible (not surprising given the chip shortage). I think March 2023 could have seen the Switch successor launch pre-COVID, but the pandemic has pushed all their plans back.

I can't see Nintendo putting out a Switch successor without a strong lineup of games to back it up, and right now most of their major teams are looking to launch games in last 2021 and 2020. Simply put, Nintendo won't have their next generation software ready until 2024.
Compare Switch sales curve with NDS and PS4, and compare PS4 to PS2.
Compare the % of Sony home consoles sold after their successor has been released vs the same for console Nintendo home consoles (not sure if Wii was an exception too) or Nintendo handhelds.
Check out how many years PS home consoles have been in the market, same for Nintendo consoles or handhelds, and compare it to Ryan's words some months ago saying they will support PS4 for several years more (as I remember he say at least 2 or 3 years or something like that) because they will need time to build the PS5 userbase and because PS4 had >100M active userbase.

I'm 100% sure PS4 will be in the market during several FY more than Switch. Nintendo fans will buy whatever Nintendo releases, they don't need a strong lineup. As an example, a gazillion of them will buy Switch XL even if it has 0 exclusive games and 0 performance improvement.
 
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Clarissa

Banned
Looking at this chart you can see Nintendo Switch was trading blows against PS4 until Animal Crossing kicked in and Switch doesn't need to look back anymore.

Switch Q4 is going to break another record with 5-6M units shipment.

My friend predicts that switch will sell 30 million this financial year. Especially if switch pro and BOTW 2 releases together like he predicts. What are your thoughts.
 
Sure, but I disagree. Just look at the launch number month and next quarter. PS4 sold more is that due to Holiday? and No Holiday for Switch? We will never know. But he also made a mistake in saying PS4 had less holidays if you disregard the Launch month/Quarter for PS4 that's still 4 Holidays for Both consoles not less for PS4(3 Holidays}

Same issue that's happening with the PS5 now. Sony stock piled supply for the holidays and sold all of them and now they're selling consoles as fast as they can make them. They had more time to product consoles for the holiday so naturally they're going to sell less in the following quarter

Are we still talking about 48 months here? If so no he's right, the PS4 had 3 holidays discounting the launch one
 
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Bodomism

Banned
My friend predicts that switch will sell 30 million this financial year. Especially if switch pro and BOTW 2 releases together like he predicts. What are your thoughts.
Pretty good prediction as Nintendo is upping their software forecast to be the biggest hinted by industry insiders.
 

Bodomism

Banned
Compare Switch sales curve with NDS and PS4, and compare PS4 to PS2.
Compare the % of Sony home consoles sold after their successor has been released vs the same for console Nintendo home consoles (not sure if Wii was an exception too) or Nintendo handhelds.
Check out how many years PS home consoles have been in the market, same for Nintendo consoles or handhelds, and compare it to Ryan's words some months ago saying they will support PS4 for several years more (as I remember he say at least 2 or 3 years or something like that) because they will need time to build the PS5 userbase and because PS4 had >100M active userbase.

I'm 100% sure PS4 will be in the market during several FY more than Switch. Nintendo fans will buy whatever Nintendo releases, they don't need a strong lineup. As an example, a gazillion of them will buy Switch XL even if it has 0 exclusive games and 0 performance improvement.
Nah, not gonna happen as the current sales trajectory already went down dramatically in comparison to NDS and PS2.

1.4M console shipped in the last holiday quarter is your answer.
 

MrA

Member
Compare Switch sales curve with NDS and PS4, and compare PS4 to PS2.
Compare the % of Sony home consoles sold after their successor has been released vs the same for console Nintendo home consoles (not sure if Wii was an exception too) or Nintendo handhelds.
Check out how many years PS home consoles have been in the market, same for Nintendo consoles or handhelds, and compare it to Ryan's words some months ago saying they will support PS4 for several years more (as I remember he say at least 2 or 3 years or something like that) because they will need time to build the PS5 userbase and because PS4 had >100M active userbase.

I'm 100% sure PS4 will be in the market during several FY more than Switch. Nintendo fans will buy whatever Nintendo releases, they don't need a strong lineup. As an example, a gazillion of them will buy Switch XL even if it has 0 exclusive games and 0 performance improvement.
I misread this as Ryan's World and found it much more confusing but pretty funny
 
Isnt this whole thread just mental gymnastics?
OP left out EU data. Did the full life cycle of Switch knowing last year was a huge spike due to covid (switch was the only hardware available for some time).
Switch is doing well no doubt but don’t act like we’re swimming in new games (Yes we because I’m a switch owner).

Do you have the EU data? Plus, the Switch was tapping the PS4 ass before the COVID, that huge spike argument doesn't fly. And I know that Switch fans don't have heavy hitters like Goodbye Volcano High to look forward to, but we're days away from Monster Hunter so yeah there's that.
 

Hardensoul

Gold Member
Same issue that's happening with the PS5 now. Sony stock piled supply for the holidays and sold all of them and now they're selling consoles as fast as they can make them. They had more time to product consoles for the holiday so naturally they're going to sell less in the following quarter

Are we still talking about 48 months here? If so no he's right, the PS4 had 3 holidays discounting the launch one
Ok, I see the 48 months thing. Pretty odd way to look at it.

Ok, lets look at ethomaz ethomaz 16 quarter chart. I can only go by what you guys post. But Even count Ps4 quarter #17(76.5m) it's still lower than Switch Quart 16(79.87).

I'm a simple person. I don't know how to look at it any other way. Start from zero and an end number pick that and use math. :messenger_grinning_smiling:

NgR90r4.jpg
 
Ok, I see the 48 months thing. Pretty odd way to look at it.

Ok, lets look at ethomaz ethomaz 16 quarter chart. I can only go by what you guys post. But Even count Ps4 quarter #17(76.5m) it's still lower than Switch Quart 16(79.87).

I'm a simple person. I don't know how to look at it any other way. Start from zero and an end number pick that and use math. :messenger_grinning_smiling:

NgR90r4.jpg

I mean that's the topic here. Switch vs PS4 sales 48 months on the market

The 48th month for the PS4 was October 2017, unless you're going to call half of an October a holiday then that's three
 

Woopah

Member
What? even if you dismiss PS4 launch as not being a holiday, the PS4 still has Launch + 4 holidays. Just read the table.

Sure, but I disagree. Just look at the launch number month and next quarter. PS4 sold more is that due to Holiday? and No Holiday for Switch? We will never know. But he also made a mistake in saying PS4 had less holidays if you disregard the Launch month/Quarter for PS4 that's still 4 Holidays for Both consoles not less for PS4(3 Holidays}
We're comparing 16 quarters vs. 16 quarters. The 9 million PS4 sold in holiday 2017 (its 17th quarter) hasn't been accounted for yet. Nintendo will reveal the Switch's 17th quarter sales in May.
Compare Switch sales curve with NDS and PS4, and compare PS4 to PS2.
Compare the % of Sony home consoles sold after their successor has been released vs the same for console Nintendo home consoles (not sure if Wii was an exception too) or Nintendo handhelds.
Check out how many years PS home consoles have been in the market, same for Nintendo consoles or handhelds, and compare it to Ryan's words some months ago saying they will support PS4 for several years more (as I remember he say at least 2 or 3 years or something like that) because they will need time to build the PS5 userbase and because PS4 had >100M active userbase.

I'm 100% sure PS4 will be in the market during several FY more than Switch. Nintendo fans will buy whatever Nintendo releases, they don't need a strong lineup. As an example, a gazillion of them will buy Switch XL even if it has 0 exclusive games and 0 performance improvement.
Did people buy the 3DS or Wii U with its weak launch lineup? No. So we know for sure that gamers don't just buy whatever Nintendo puts out, gamers buy Nintendo products that appeal to them.

Nintendo don't need to launch a new platform to react to a new competitor product any more. They are on their own cycle and can launch whenever they want. 3DS was discontinued after 9.5 years and I can see both PS4 and Switch ending after a similar amount of time.
 

Hezekiah

Banned
Nintendoomed 'o clock !


Crazy how Nintendo does this pretty much on their own, too.

Wake me up when Sony can do numbers like this with their games alone.
I feel it would be so much better if Playstation had shittier third-party support. Would almost be worth bragging on GAF about.
 

Hardensoul

Gold Member
I mean that's the topic here. Switch vs PS4 sales 48 months on the market

The 48th month for the PS4 was October 2017, unless you're going to call half of an October a holiday then that's three
I notice regarding the 3 Holiday on first of the 48 month thing, it's just odd to disregard PS4 first Holiday. Not referring to the end of the 48 month (October).
 

ethomaz

Banned
Look at the chart again, how can you say PS4 only had 3 Holidays. That is 5 Holiday quarters in yellow, how can PS4 have less Holidays? PS4 literally launch in November it's first Holiday.

Miy6yax.jpg
I explained it my post... the launch is not holiday... 4.5m is a launch scenario time and not Halliday stocks.

BTW only in the relative compared with Switch next quarter PS4 will have the 4th holiday stocks.

That 9m is related to Jan-March 2021 in Switch timeline that we didn’t have data yet... your table is not accurate.

What? even if you dismiss PS4 launch as not being a holiday, the PS4 still has Launch + 4 holidays. Just read the table.
His table is wrong... look at mine that is accurate.

PS4 holiday (Oct-Dev) = Switch Jan-March.

The 4th holiday data will be compared with Nintendo this quarter results.
 
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ethomaz

Banned
Sure, but I disagree. Just look at the launch number month and next quarter. PS4 sold more is that due to Holiday? and No Holiday for Switch? We will never know. But he also made a mistake in saying PS4 had less holidays if you disregard the Launch month/Quarter for PS4 that's still 4 Holidays for Both consoles not less for PS4(3 Holidays}
Your table is wrong bro.

PS4 Oct-Dec = Switch Jan-March.

Launch aligned PS4 had 4th holidays as one being the launch limited stock and not holiday stock... 9m PS4 didn’t happen in Switch timeline yet... it is this Jan-Mar results.
 
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ethomaz

Banned
Ok, I see the 48 months thing. Pretty odd way to look at it.

Ok, lets look at ethomaz ethomaz 16 quarter chart. I can only go by what you guys post. But Even count Ps4 quarter #17(76.5m) it's still lower than Switch Quart 16(79.87).

I'm a simple person. I don't know how to look at it any other way. Start from zero and an end number pick that and use math. :messenger_grinning_smiling:

NgR90r4.jpg
That table is accurate.

The gap will drop between 7-8m after this quarter that includes the 4th PS4 holiday just like Switch.
 
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ethomaz

Banned
I notice regarding the 3 Holiday on first of the 48 month thing, it's just odd to disregard PS4 first Holiday. Not referring to the end of the 48 month (October).
The first PS4 holiday is not holiday stocks is Launch stocks. A holiday has about the double os units available than launch.

PS4 and Switch launch were very similar... 4.5m in 1.5 months... 2.7m in 1 month.

They where limited to what they shipped. Holiday stocks only happens on PS4 second holiday and on Switch first holiday.

Launch can’t be counted as holiday period because the units available are very limited.

Switch had 4x full holiday stocks + launch stocks.
PS4 had 3x full holiday stocks + launch stocks.

If PS4 was launched outside holiday it may have sold the same 4.5m and have around 9m units available in the first holiday.
 
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The Alien

Banned
Thanks. I've been searching the internet to see how XBox was doing in Japan. I knew to come to Gaf, because for some reason, there is a fascination Japanese sales charts.
 

yurinka

Member
1.4M console shipped in the last holiday quarter is your answer.
Yes it was low quarter but I think here are many things that can explain that as an isolated period, specially if you consider it looking at the whole life cycle curves:

During that quarter starting in October they made room in shipments and stocks for PS5 shipping less PS4. And less than with PS5, but PS4 also got impacted by the semiconductors stuff, there has been shortages of PS4 and DS4 during that period at least in Europe.

And well, obviously the launch record of PS5 meant less PS4 being sold (plus Xbox also releasing console and Switch having its peak), and considering its life cycle point it's too expensive and Sony said they didn't reduced its price because want to milk these profits. Europe had its retail shops closed during these holidays seasons so people moved to buy online and maybe someone didn't want to buy expensive stuff online because they were used to do it in person on a retail store.

I think it may recover staring this quarter and specially if they solve the semiconductors stuff and if they apply a price cut. Sony said plans to support it during at least 2 or 3 years more and that it has >100M active users so will continue pumping it up. If sales were down due to low demand, they were supply constrained with PS5 only and were able to ship enough PS4s they would apply a price cut to PS4, but doesn't seem to be the case.

To get a proper picture we'll need to see the PS4 sales during the next few quarters to see if it was something isolated of that point and improves when outside these constrains or if it's permanent.

But NDS tanked harder than PS4 in its FY7/8th FY so who knows.
 
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yurinka

Member
We're comparing 16 quarters vs. 16 quarters. The 9 million PS4 sold in holiday 2017 (its 17th quarter) hasn't been accounted for yet. Nintendo will reveal the Switch's 17th quarter sales in May.

Did people buy the 3DS or Wii U with its weak launch lineup? No. So we know for sure that gamers don't just buy whatever Nintendo puts out, gamers buy Nintendo products that appeal to them.

Nintendo don't need to launch a new platform to react to a new competitor product any more. They are on their own cycle and can launch whenever they want. 3DS was discontinued after 9.5 years and I can see both PS4 and Switch ending after a similar amount of time.
If you compare them without aligning FYs then you'll have to remember always that these quarters will cause a big movement to one side or another because their Holiday season quarter (were a huge chunk of the yearly sales are made) aren't aligned.

The reason of 3DS and WiiU not selling at launch went beyond the launch titles.

Same goes with Switch great success, it has more to do with combining both Nintendo markets being a hybrid, better branding/marketing to differientiate it from the previous product, better perceived launch pricing, now getting the handheld monopoly and so on. There are several examples of Switch games being crossgen/WiiU to Switch ports/WiiU sequels that are basically the same game that had great sales on Switch while tanked on WiiU.

Regarding the launch timing yes, they decided to avoid being aligned with the other ones. They have their own cycle and seems it benefited Switch to have their peak while the others are in an intergenerational transition with a generation dying and the other one starting and supply constrained, so are in their lower sales portion of their life cycle.
 

m051293

Member
Your table is wrong bro.

PS4 Oct-Dec = Switch Jan-March.

Launch aligned PS4 had 4th holidays as one being the launch limited stock and not holiday stock... 9m PS4 didn’t happen in Switch timeline yet... it is this Jan-Mar results.

The table is mine, I see it made its way here. It is accurate, it is meant to launch=align how Nintendo & Sony report Fiscal Years, not compare launch aligned quarters. Year 0 for PS4 is Apr 2013 - Mar 2014, in which PS4 was available to the market for 2 quarters (Fiscal Quarters 3 and 4). Year 0 for NSW is Apr 2016 - Mar 2017, in which NSW was available to the market for 1 quarter (Jan - Mar 2017).

FWIW the table was not made for this thread/discussion. It was updated in February when Sony & Nintendo released their most recent PS4/NSW numbers for informational purposes only. It's not tailored to the discussion going on here.
 
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Astral Dog

Member
Nintendo Switch is such a beast!

Edit:i thought it was supposed to be first 48 months of the PS4 life 🤷‍♂️
 
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