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[Astral Dog]

You have to wonder where Switch would be today if it had launched at the same time as XB1 and PS4.
What a beastly console.

I mean sales would still be great, but it was impossible to launch a portable like the Switch at that time. Tech wasn't there yet it wasn't even made and it would have been much more expensive, Switch is cheap and powerful for what it is.

 

[Bodomism]

Nintendo Switch is such a beast!

Edit:i thought it was supposed to be first 48 months of the PS4 life

Those numbers were from the first 4 years of NSW, PS4, and XB1.

 

[Woopah]

If you compare them without aligning FYs then you'll have to remember always that these quarters will cause a big movement to one side or another because their Holiday season quarter (were a huge chunk of the yearly sales are made) aren't aligned.

The reason of 3DS and WiiU not selling at launch went beyond the launch titles.

Same goes with Switch great success, it has more to do with combining both Nintendo markets being a hybrid, better branding/marketing to differientiate it from the previous product, better perceived launch pricing, now getting the handheld monopoly and so on. There are several examples of Switch games being crossgen/WiiU to Switch ports/WiiU sequels that are basically the same game that had great sales on Switch while tanked on WiiU.

Regarding the launch timing yes, they decided to avoid being aligned with the other ones. They have their own cycle and seems it benefited Switch to have their peak while the others are in an intergenerational transition with a generation dying and the other one starting and supply constrained, so are in their lower sales portion of their life cycle.

Yes the different launch timings will always affect these sort of comparisons, but we can take that context into account when analysing the numbers.

There is a lot more to it than launch titles, but I do think Switch benefitted a lot from having BOTW at launch and the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey within the first seven months.

With the Switch sakes curve as it is I just don't think they need to launch a successor in early 2023. If the rumours are right and this year's revision has DLSS then that can easily extend the Switch's life for another 2 years minimum. I can see them bringing out a successor in March 2024, and then dropping the price of the previous models and selling them for another couple of years.

 

[yurinka]

There is a lot more to it than launch titles, but I do think Switch benefitted a lot from having BOTW at launch and the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey within the first seven months.

Yes, these games were key and sold a lot. But think BOTW was crossgen, Mario Kart was pretty much the WiiU one at launch with a few extras and Splatoon 2 was let's say it was very similar to Splatoon 1. They had insane sales in Switch while way smaller sales on WiiU. Something repeated later on many other WiiU to Switch enhaced ports.

Mostly same exclusive games but a way bigger performance, so Switch offered something else that made it work. I think the main was to merge both Nintendo markets on a single machine which at the same time would get the handheld monopoly being the new portable indie machine after the Vita, but now with TV-out.

With the Switch sakes curve as it is I just don't think they need to launch a successor in early 2023. If the rumours are right and this year's revision has DLSS then that can easily extend the Switch's life for another 2 years minimum. I can see them bringing out a successor in March 2024, and then dropping the price of the previous models and selling them for another couple of years.

I think to use DLSS would require a way more powerful GPU and game specific programming/patches to use it. I think Nintendo will use kind of cheaper option like a 4K rescaling chip controlled from the OS to scale all new and past games to 4K with no game specific programming/patches. Much cheaper for Nintendo and no headaches for devs. I think it will only have this and a bigger, OLED screen. Other than that, a normal Switch.

 

[Woopah]

Yes, these games were key and sold a lot. But think BOTW was crossgen, Mario Kart was pretty much the WiiU one at launch with a few extras and Splatoon 2 was let's say it was very similar to Splatoon 1. They had insane sales in Switch while way smaller sales on WiiU. Something repeated later on many other WiiU to Switch enhaced ports.

Mostly same exclusive games but a way bigger performance, so Switch offered something else that made it work. I think the main was to merge both Nintendo markets on a single machine which at the same time would get the handheld monopoly being the new portable indie machine after the Vita, but now with TV-out.

Switch definitely gave life to a lot of games held back by the Wii U. But I don't think any game is being held back by Switch, so Nintendo can't pull the same trick.

There's no need for them to rush new hardware so they can take their time with launching Switch's successor. It could be that at one point they planned to release their next generation in holiday 2023, but COVID could have very well pushed those plans back. Given their insistence that Switch is currently in the middle of its life, I'd be shocked if a successor came out earlier than H2 2023, and I think 2024 is likelier.

I think to use DLSS would require a way more powerful GPU and game specific programming/patches to use it. I think Nintendo will use kind of cheaper option like a 4K rescaling chip controlled from the OS to scale all new and past games to 4K with no game specific programming/patches. Much cheaper for Nintendo and no headaches for devs. I think it will only have this and a bigger, OLED screen. Other than that, a normal Switch.

Apparently there are dev kits out there for the new model, and the only reason a new dev kit would be required is if the internals of the Switch have been upgraded. I guess we will have to see who is right!

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Switch definitely gave life to a lot of games held back by the Wii U. But I don't think any game is being held back by Switch, so Nintendo can't pull the same trick.

There's no need for them to rush new hardware so they can take their time with launching Switch's successor. It could be that at one point they planned to release their next generation in holiday 2023, but COVID could have very well pushed those plans back. Given their insistence that Switch is currently in the middle of its life, I'd be shocked if a successor came out earlier than H2 2023, and I think 2024 is likelier.

Lifespan of Nintendo home consoles (from launch date to launch of successor):

NES: 7 years 4 months
SNES: 5 years 7 months
N64: 5 years 3 months
Gamecube: 5 years 2 months
Wii: 6 years
Wii U: 4 years 4 months

March 2017 to fall 2023 is 6 and a half years, which would make the Switch Nintendo's longest-lived modern console. Given that it's almost certain to be Nintendo's most successful modern console, however, I agree that a 2023-24 launch date is most likely.

 

[Woopah]

Lifespan of Nintendo home consoles (from launch date to launch of successor):

NES: 7 years 4 months
SNES: 5 years 7 months
N64: 5 years 3 months
Gamecube: 5 years 2 months
Wii: 6 years
Wii U: 4 years 4 months

March 2017 to fall 2023 is 6 and a half years, which would make the Switch Nintendo's longest-lived modern console. Given that it's almost certain to be Nintendo's most successful modern console, however, I agree that a 2023-24 launch date is most likely.

Yes it makes sense to me too. If Switch was following a normal Nintendo console sales curve then I'd agree that March 2023 would be likely. But with Switch peaking later I think that pushes back the launch of the succesor.

 

[yurinka]

Lifespan of Nintendo home consoles (from launch date to launch of successor):

NES: 7 years 4 months
SNES: 5 years 7 months
N64: 5 years 3 months
Gamecube: 5 years 2 months
Wii: 6 years
Wii U: 4 years 4 months

March 2017 to fall 2023 is 6 and a half years, which would make the Switch Nintendo's longest-lived modern console. Given that it's almost certain to be Nintendo's most successful modern console, however, I agree that a 2023-24 launch date is most likely.

You should do the same with Nintendo's portables. Switch seems to be acting more like portables (specially DS) and Wii than to the other home consoles. But yes, I agree a 2023 release would make sense.

 

[The Gorby Congressmanz]

Nw if you replaced SWI with the Wii U that everyone likes to pretend doesn't ecist, than this thread would make a lot more sense for a "first 48 month" time frame. As it is, uh what?