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[JoshuaJSlone]

You people :lol

I wonder what the PSP drop-off next week will be. I say at least 40%

Only 40%? Unless supply constrained, dropoffs are always pretty big the week after launches.
DS: -57.6%
GBM: -72.7%
Wii: -75.6%

Dipping back into older Famitsu numbers, though, there is some precedent for a smaller drop
GBC: -56.8%
GBA: -47.1%
GBASP: -28.7%

 

[volmer]

So basically, existing PSP owners are now upgrading to the PSP Slim?

 

[davepoobond]

PSP>360>PS3>>Wii would be the most funny

 

[donny2112]

PS3>>Wii

That has no chance of happening this week, though. If the numbers came out that way, we would all just assume they were wrong (because they would be) and wait for Media-Create to fix them. Waiting for Media-Create to fix their numbers would not be funny.

 

[Miniboss1232]

So basically, existing PSP owners are now upgrading to the PSP Slim?

Are those worms coming out of that can you opened?

 

[icecream]

Way better than halo 2. Oblivion ps3 is weak. 360 sold 45k.

First day sales.

How come there is no Blue Dragon First day ? Blue dragon First week : 82,286

Those figures are for 2007 only.

 

[apujanata]

Only 40%? Unless supply constrained, dropoffs are always pretty big the week after launches.
DS: -57.6%
GBM: -72.7%
Wii: -75.6%

Dipping back into older Famitsu numbers, though, there is some precedent for a smaller drop
GBC: -56.8%
GBA: -47.1%
GBASP: -28.7%

Added the launch date and GCN :

DS: -57.6% (launch in Dec 2, 2004)
GBM: -72.7% (launch in Sep 13, 2005)
Wii: -75.6% (launch in Dec 2, 2006)
GCN : ?? % (launch in Sep 14, 2001)

Dipping back into older Famitsu numbers, though, there is some precedent for a smaller drop
GBC: -56.8% (launch in ??)
GBA: -47.1% (launch in March 21, 2001)
GBASP: -28.7% (launch in Feb 14, 2003)

Since Sep is usually a slower month compared to March & Feb, the only precedent that should be used (IMO) to predict PSP slim second week sales is GBM and GCN. Anyone have GCN data (I don't have the weekly data for 2001) and can provide the second week drop off ? Maybe Joshua or donny ?

 

[donny2112]

Maybe Joshua or donny ?

Not Joshua or donny. Joshua through donny. Haha. Haha. Ha... Hmm.

http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/FamitsuGeimin2.txt

2001-09-10 - 133,719
2001-09-17 - 29,209

-78.2%

 

[Juwanna Peezadis]

By the way, why aren't PSP and PSP Slim numbers separated like DS/DSL and GBA/GBASP/GBAMicro?

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

So basically, existing PSP owners are now upgrading to the PSP Slim?

A good part: yes. But there are surely new buyers too.

 

[Brofist]

So basically, existing PSP owners are now upgrading to the PSP Slim?

I would imagine there are quite a few new owners as well. Anecdotal, but I noticed people seem to be buying up PSP games and UMD movies at the game shops lately, and we all know long time PSP owners would never buy UMD movies

 

[Brofist]

By the way, why aren't PSP and PSP Slim numbers separated like DS/DSL and GBA/GBASP/GBAMicro?

They are all part of the PSP family.

 

[BishopLamont]

They are all part of the PSP family.

So DS/DSL was separated at birth?

 

[Lightning]

Who here predicts the 360 to outsell the PS3 in next weeks MC? :lol

 

[justjohn]

Who here predicts the 360 to outsell the PS3 in next weeks MC? :lol

i sense fear in this post.

 

[Lightning]

Not that much. I already know the PS3 will suck in Japan all October. I do expect PES08, GT5P, Ratchet and co to boost sales considerably over the holiday period though.

The trash talk that will occur as a result will probably be annoying but that will be about all.

 

[Defuser]

So DS/DSL was separated at birth?

DSL & DS = Beauty and the Beast.

PSP & PSP Slim = Beautiful fraternal twins with one gaining abit weight.

 

[SouthernDragon]

And bad Wii sales are bad. Bad! Wii sales. Bad! Get back in your Wiihouse!

: (

Give it time, they take time to be house trained.

*hugs Wii numbers*

 

[Moor-Angol]

Who here predicts the 360 to outsell the PS3 in next weeks MC? :lol

it's very hard a single game which sold 45k on first day sales will boost 7x the system sales...

 

[Stumpokapow]

Not that much. I already know the PS3 will suck in Japan all October. I do expect PES08, GT5P, Ratchet and co to boost sales considerably over the holiday period though.

Ratchet is not going to boost sales one bit. Ratchet 1 sold 500k, Ratchet 2 sold 270 k, Ratchet 3 sold <200k. As we've seen so far, PS3 installments of existing PS2 franchises generally sell less (regardless of quality). Ratchet might hit 200k, but I'd be surprised.

 

[test_account]

Ratchet is not going to boost sales one bit. Ratchet 1 sold 500k, Ratchet 2 sold 270 k, Ratchet 3 sold <200k. As we've seen so far, PS3 installments of existing PS2 franchises generally sell less (regardless of quality). Ratchet might hit 200k, but I'd be surprised.

It can happend. Just look at Mario Party for example. On Gamecube every Mario Party sequel from Mario Party 4 went downhill, but MP8 for Wii is selling pretty good. I dont belive Ratchet & Clank Future will boost PS3 hardware sales alot, but i do belive it will have some impact.

 

[sankao]

It can happend. Just look at Mario Party for example. On Gamecube every Mario Party sequel from Mario Party 4 went downhill, but MP8 for Wii is selling pretty good. I dont belive Ratchet & Clank Future will boost PS3 hardware sales alot, but i do belive it will have some impact.

I agree that Ratchet would sell better than its previous installments if it was published on Wii.

 

[Jammy]

It can happend. Just look at Mario Party for example. On Gamecube every Mario Party sequel from Mario Party 4 went downhill, but MP8 for Wii is selling pretty good. I dont belive Ratchet & Clank Future will boost PS3 hardware sales alot, but i do belive it will have some impact.

Wii makes games sell well. PS3 makes games sell like piss.

 

[donny2112]

I agree that Ratchet would sell better than its previous installments if it was published on Wii.

Zing!

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I agree that Ratchet would sell better than its previous installments if it was published on Wii.

Doubt it big time.

 

[Lobster]

Doubt it big time.

How come?

 

[Jammy]

How come?

Nothing else to buy on the system LOLZ.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

How come?

Do you see a Ratchet Wii selling more than the PS2 games? Unless you get Nintendo to slap Mario as Ratchet and such, I doubt it big time.

 

[Version 3.0]

Just popped in to see how low the Wii numbers are...and holy crap! I didn't realize the PSP slim came out this week, for some reason I thought last week's 95k/Crisis Core was also the slim launch. Wow.

Competition! Maybe sales threads will be interesting again.

 

[ccbfan]

Wii makes mini game collections sell well. PS3 makes games sell like piss.

fixed

Ratchet would go the way of Katana and Striker

 

[Jokeropia]

fixed

DQ: Swords, Super Paper Mario.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

fixed

Ratchet would go the way of Katana and Striker

Ratchet would probably sell better on Wii than PS3, but that's not really setting the bar terribly high. Nowhere near the sales it enjoyed on PS2 on either new system, obviously.

 

[test_account]

Wii makes games sell well. PS3 makes games sell like piss.

There are a few Wii games that have sold damn poor. Dewey's Adventure (or something) comes to mind. It sold like 1k the first week. So all Wii games doesnt automaticly sell well.

 

[donny2112]

I didn't realize the PSP slim came out this week, for some reason I thought last week's 95k/Crisis Core was also the slim launch.

It was. It was only for the Crisis Core special edition, though. This past week was the full Slim launch with all the different colors.

Any other comments or suggestions on this PSP gif from page 7? Preferably constructive comments.

Edit:

So all Wii games doesnt automaticly sell well.

Nor do all PS2, NES, 360, etc. games. The situation you previously put forth with Ratchet, however, was like if a SNES game had started out good and sold progressively worse through its iterations, expecting its N64 incarnation to show no dropoff or increase.

 

[test_account]

Nor do all PS2, NES, 360, etc. games.

I know, i never said anything like that either. Jammy said that Wii makes games sell well, i just pointed out that Wii games doesnt automaticly sell well just because its on the Wii.

The situation you previously put forth with Ratchet, however, was like if a SNES game had started out good and sold progressively worse through its iterations, expecting its N64 incarnation to show no dropoff or increase.

No, then you missunderstood my point because this wasnt what i was saying. Stumpokapow showed that the Ratchet games for PS2 just had went downhill and because of this the PS3 version would not sell better. I then pointed out that the Mario Party games for Gamecube also went downhill, but when Mario Party for Wii was released it sold much more than the last Mario Party game for Gamecube, so why cant it happend with Ratchet & Clank also?

Since the PS3 userbase is relatively small it might be a stretch to say that Ratchet for PS3 will sell more than 200k (which Stumpokapow said the last Ratchet PS2 game sold), atleast in the begining, but i wouldnt say its impossible. The PS3 is selling rather lousy now so one rather popular game like Ratchet could easily boost the PS3 hardware sale, something Stumpokapow said wouldnt happend. It might be that he ment boosting the PS3 to new hights, but even if its just a small boost for some weeks, its still a boost

 

[Jokeropia]

but when Mario Party for Wii was released it sold much more than the last Mario Party game for Gamecube, so why cant it happend with Ratchet & Clank also?

Because the Wii is much more popular than the Gamecube while the PS3 is much less popular than the PS2? Lots of big franchises have been released on the PS3 so far and all of them have bombed.

 

[test_account]

Because the Wii is much more popular than the Gamecube while the PS3 is much less popular than the PS2? Lots of big franchises have been released on the PS3 so far and all of them have bombed.

True about Wii, but my point was that you cannot just look at the salenumbers of previous games in a serie and say 100% sure from this that the next game will sell worse and not boost hardware sales one bit, especially when its a new console. And from what i've seen, alot of people were suprised that Mario Party 8 sold that well (still selling good) even if it was for Wii. All big PS3 games have bombed? I think we have a different opinion about what bombed is then

 

[Jokeropia]

True about Wii, but my point was that you cannot just look at the salenumbers of previous games in a serie and say 100% sure from this that the next game will sell worse, especially when its a new console. All PS3 games have bombed? I think we have a different opinion about what bombed is then

All those big games (Gundam Musou, Virtua Fighter, Minna no Golf…) severly underperformed compared to previous installments, yes, which is what we're discussing here.

And he didn't just look at the declining sales numbers to proclaim that Ratchet PS3 would sell worse, he also looked at the fact that the PS3 is lightyears from the PS2 in terms of popularity and software sales. Such a prediction makes much more sense than your example with how Wii managed to boost Mario Party from Gamecube. (In fact, that example only works in his favor since it supports the notion of games generally selling better on popular consoles than on unpopular consoles.)

 

[test_account]

All those big games (Gundam Musou, Virtua Fighter, Minna no Golf…) severly underperformed compared to previous installments, yes, which is what we're discussing here.

Of course, but you must also take userbase into consideration. When a game sells to like 30% of the userbase, thats not what i would consider bombed. When i think of bombed i think more of stuff like Dewey's Adventure, games that were predicted to sell much more than what they actually did.

And he didn't just look at the declining sales numbers to proclaim that Ratchet PS3 would sell worse, he also looked at the fact that the PS3 is lightyears from the PS2 in terms of popularity and software sales. Such a prediction makes much more sense than your example with how Wii managed to boost Mario Party from Gamecube. (In fact, that example only works in his favor since it supports the notion of games generally selling better on popular consoles than on unpopular consoles.)

Maybe i dont explain to good and are getting my point out, but check Mario Party:

MP4: 900k | MP5: 698k |MP6: 527k | MP7: 454k | MP8: 800k and still growing. Big chance to go over 1 million.

The interest declined, people mostly likely got tired of Mario Party, but then suddently the interest rised again. Why is this? It didnt sell 800k just because of the Wii itself, it sold because people was interested in Mario Party again, must likely due to the motion controllers. Then Ratchet:

R1: 562k | R2: 274k | R3: 233k | R4: 223k

I'm not sure if all are sequels or so, but this is the numbers from Moor-Angol's site. Anyway, same thing here, interest declined, just like Mario Party. Then i wonder, is it possible that the interest for Ratchet can rise again?

As said, its a strech to say the PS3 version will sell over 223k due to the relatively low userbase, but is it impossible? Can it boost hardware sales (i.e from 10k to 20k for some weeks) due to new interest? Thats why i said you cannot just look at the previous sale numbers and say automaticly if the next installment will be lower. What if interest have risen again? Its hard to say. I hope my point was clearer now

 

[Jokeropia]

Of course, but you must also take userbase into consideration.

Games tend to sell less on unpopular systems, yes. That's the point! For this reason it's only sensible to predict that PS3 will not be able to boost an already declining franchise.

It is theoretically possible (almost everything is), but the success of Mario Party 8 does not make it more probable.

When a game sells to like 30% of the userbase, thats not what i would consider bombed. When i think of bombed i think more of stuff like Dewey's Adventure, games that were predicted to sell much more than what they actually did.

How much was Dewey's Adventure predicted to sell? I know for a fact that Koei wanted to sell 2 million copies of Gundam Musou, and I think Namco Bandai had a target of 1 million.

 

[donny2112]

No, then you missunderstood my point because this wasnt what i was saying.

You reaffirmed that I had understood you perfectly.

Stumpokapow showed that the Ratchet games for PS2 just had went downhill and because of this the PS3 version would not sell better. I then pointed out that the Mario Party games for Gamecube also went downhill, but when Mario Party for Wii was released it sold much more than the last Mario Party game for Gamecube, so why cant it happend with Ratchet & Clank also?

Because that would be ...

like if a SNES game had started out good and sold progressively worse through its iterations, expecting its N64 incarnation to show no dropoff or increase.

That doesn't mean that the N64 incarnation can't show an increase, but to expect it to increase is quite ludicrous.

 

[test_account]

Games tend to sell less on unpopular systems, yes. That's the point! For this reason it's only sensible to predict that PS3 will not be able to boost an already declining franchise.

Of course, its because less people own the system if its unpopular

It is theoretically possible (almost everything is), but the success of Mario Party 8 does not make it more probable.How much was Dewey's Adventure predicted to sell? I know for a fact that Koei wanted to sell 2 million copies of Gundam Musou, and I think Namco Bandai had a target of 1 million.

True, i'm not saying that it will happend, i'm just putting a question mark behind it. No idea how much Dewey's Adventure was predicted to sell, but i can almost guarantee you that it was more than ~1k the first week atleast. I assume those predictions from Koei and Namco were done before the launch of the PS3? I dont think hardly any would think the PS3 would get this slow start. I guess they thought it would be on pair, or atleast close to what the PS2 preformed. So higher predictions would be made based on this.

 

[Sharp]

That doesn't mean that the N64 incarnation can't show an increase, but to expect it to increase is quite ludicrous.

Zeruda!

 

[donny2112]

Zeruda!

The SNES had four Zeldas that sold progressively worse, and the N64 Zelda was the same style game?

Spoiler

Zeruda!

 

[test_account]

That doesn't mean that the N64 incarnation can't show an increase, but to expect it to increase is quite ludicrous.

Why? It happend to Mario Party from GC to Wii. Why couldnt the same situation happend on SNES to N64 too? Its all about how much the interest have increased or not, and userbase of course. And just to underline, i never expected anything, i just put a question mark behind it, if it can happend or not.

 

[Christine]

Why? It happend to Mario Party from GC to Wii. Why couldnt the same situation happend on SNES to N64 too? Its all about how much the interest have increased or not, and userbase of course. And just to underline, i never expected anything, i just put a question mark behind it, if it can happend or not.

GameCube and SNES should NEVER be on the same end of a comparative analogy.

Spoiler

GameCube is to PS2 as SNES is to ???????

 

[test_account]

GameCube and SNES should NEVER be on the same end of a comparative analogy.

The analogy is the jump from one console to another. It doesnt really matter which consoles it is. And i'm not the one who brought up the SNES and N64

Spoiler

GameCube is to PS2 as SNES is to ???????

Megadrive/Genesis.

 

[Sharp]

Megadrive/Genesis.

The Genesis sold just a little worse in the US, outsold the SNES in Europe, but Japan, where it sold a lot worse. Not really a particularly apt comparison to the PS2.

 

[test_account]

The Genesis sold just a little worse in the US, outsold the SNES in Europe, but Japan, where it sold a lot worse. Not really a particularly apt comparison to the PS2.

The way i understood him he asked which console that was competing against SNES at the same time, just like GC was competing against PS2.

I doubt Mega Drive outsold the SNES in Europe btw. Maybe in the UK, but the rest was pretty much SNES dominated after my knowledge.

 

[Christine]

Im not the one who brought up SNES and N64 I'm just answering to what donny said.

.

Why? It happend to Mario Party from GC to Wii. Why couldnt the same situation happend on SNES to N64 too?

Megadrive/Genesis.

No. For starters, Genesis/Megadrive wasn't at least twice as popular as the SNES in every significant market.