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[donny2112]

Even if the preorder information is 100% accurate, doicare gave a source, and we knew the exact numbers, it wouldn't make a difference. Square2005 used to use the comgnet.com sales to predict for the week, and he was never particularly accurate. There's also the very good point that WSR's target audience does not preorder. "In U.K. they do!" 1) I don't think it's the target audience that's preordering, 2) people actually buy Wii games in the U.K., so they freqent the stores a lot more often. I expect WSR to re-interest consumers in the Wii. If they were already interested, I don't think we'd be seeing as severe software problems for the Wii in Japan, as we are. :lol

Also, Deca Sports 2 showed extremely good legs in its second week, and it should go up in week 3.

 

[Spiegel]

Didn't powerful pro baseball actually do more in this years Wii edition then previous releases?

If so thats two games on your list that were bad choices, if you are going to throw a tantrum and throw around how right you are then pick some really valid choices for underperforming games.

Deca Sports 2 for example was a good one, though I still maintain the casual fanbase from the 1st one got burned by it and proves that just because they are casual does not mean they buy any thing put out for sale.

Jikkyou Power Pro Major League 3 was a bomba compared to the ps2 version last year.
Jikkyou Powerful Major League 2009 is a bomba compared to the ps2 version this year.

It's a good example

Also, Deca Sports 2 showed extremely good legs in its second week, and it should go up in week 3.

Some retailers dropped the price and the game has sold 20% of its shipment. It's a massive bomba

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Some retailers dropped the price and the game has sold 20% of its shipment. It's a massive bomba

I think donny's joking with you...

EDIT:

...or maybe not

 

[donny2112]

Some retailers dropped the price and the game has sold 20% of its shipment. It's a massive bomba

So was Sonic & Mario at the Olympics after its first day. So was Wii Music.

Initial shipment - ~83K
1st week - 8600 (10% of initial)
2nd week - 7900 (20% of initial)
3rd week - start of Golden Week

If its LTD gets above 85K, that means it got a second shipment. I'm not holding up Deca Sports 2 as a success. I'm simply saying it is way too early to call it a "bomba."

P.S. The "start" of Golden Week is April 29, but can anyone in Japan tell us if that's when the week off starts? Does the week off start the following week?

I think donny's joking with you...

It gets tiring to see people call casual sellers bomba after one or two data points, and then to find out six months later that it sold well enough to get subsequent shipments.

 

[cw_sasuke]

With Motion+ and WSR upcoming Hudson should have release Deca Sports a bit later with M+ Support.

 

[poppabk]

Deca Sports 2 for example was a good one, though I still maintain the casual fanbase from the 1st one got burned by it and proves that just because they are casual does not mean they buy any thing put out for sale.

I think the mistake is thinking that casual games like Deca sports have the kind of fanbase that is waiting to lap up a sequel in equal or greater numbers. Instead of being burned by poor quality product I would say most people got what they wanted from the first game and have no need for a second, you don't burn through a party game like you do a story driven game. This is the major hurdle Wii Resort faces in my opinion, convincing people they need to own it as well as Wii Sports.

 

[doicare]

Didn't powerful pro baseball actually do more in this years Wii edition then previous releases?

If so thats two games on your list that were bad choices, if you are going to throw a tantrum and throw around how right you are then pick some really valid choices for underperforming games.

Deca Sports 2 for example was a good one, though I still maintain the casual fanbase from the 1st one got burned by it and proves that just because they are casual does not mean they buy any thing put out for sale.

The last powerful pro baseball game did 80,000~, so far the current one has done 50,000~ given that the wii userbase is significantly bigger now then a year ago the sales should be up not down. Sonic and the black knight has sold much less than sonic and the secret rings, the latest Yu-Gi-Oh game on the wii bombed when the last few Yu-Gi-Oh games usually did 100,000 to 200,000. Pro evolution is also about to come out for the wii in japan in the next few months and you'll see that signifcantly down compared to last years wii addition.

 

[Spiegel]

So was Sonic & Mario at the Olympics after its first day. So was Wii Music.

Initial shipment - ~83K
1st week - 8600 (10% of initial)
2nd week - 7900 (20% of initial)
3rd week - start of Golden Week

If it's LTD gets above 85K, that means it got a second shipment. I'm not holding up Deca Sports 2 as a success. I'm simply saying it is way too early to call it a "bomba."

When a cheap game (5000Y for a console game is cheap) with heavy promotion and retail discounts (if the ameblo/get6-2 blog information is reliable) only sells 20% of shipment after two weeks, is a massive bomba.

 

[donny2112]

When a cheap game (5000Y for a console game is cheap) with heavy promotion and retail discounts (if the ameblo/get6-2 blog information is reliable) only sells 20% of shipment after two weeks, is a massive bomba.

And if it sells 30% of its initial shipment after three weeks? 40% after four weeks? 80% after eight weeks and gets another shipment?

I'm not saying it's a success. I am saying it is way too early to call it a bomba.

 

[Spiegel]

And if it sells 30% of its initial shipment after three weeks? 40% after four weeks? 80% after eight weeks and gets another shipment?

I'm not saying it's a success. I am saying it is way too early to call it a bomba.

It's early, yes. I give you that. But retailers dropping the price is never a good sign.

 

[donny2112]

But retailers dropping the price is never a good sign.

Granted. It's now even cheaper than Deca Sports 1 on Amazon.co.jp. :lol

Edit:
On closer inspection, it appears that the cheaper price is from a reseller. Maybe Amazon hasn't gotten stock of it, yet?

 

[markatisu]

Granted. It's now even cheaper than Deca Sports 1 on Amazon.co.jp. :lol

Too bad since by all accounts the sequel was actually a "better" game

 

[d+pad]

I think the mistake is thinking that casual games like Deca sports have the kind of fanbase that is waiting to lap up a sequel in equal or greater numbers. Instead of being burned by poor quality product I would say most people got what they wanted from the first game and have no need for a second, you don't burn through a party game like you do a story driven game. This is the major hurdle Wii Resort faces in my opinion, convincing people they need to own it as well as Wii Sports.

I can't say anything about your Deca Sports argument, but it appears WSR will be quite different from Wii Sports - different setting, different 'sports', etc. I could see some people deciding against WSR if it just included the same five sports from Wii Sports with updated M+ controls, but this isn't the case.

That said, who knows how WSR will sell or whether it will increase HW sales? We'll find out soon enough. Personally, I think it will sell well but less than Wii Sports. I can see it boosting HW but only if its accompanied by some sort of overall marketing effort - which shows consumers all the great software options on the Wii, etc.

 

[markatisu]

What do we think MH:G will do this week? We know from last that the the starter pak was what went initially and that there was plenty of the standard available

So if sales are lower (lower than say a normal 2nd week drop) do we attribute that to less starter pak availability? I mean the classic controller is required or else MH:G will not boot up so its not a "normal" game by any means

 

[Spiegel]

What do we think MH:G will do this week? We know from last that the the starter pak was what went initially and that there was plenty of the standard available

So if sales are lower (lower than say a normal 2nd week drop) do we attribute that to less starter pak availability? I mean the classic controller is required or else MH:G will not boot up so its not a "normal" game by any means

It's either that or people were buying MHG for the MH3 demo (highly likely)

 

[Leon S. Kennedy]

I think the mistake is thinking that casual games like Deca sports have the kind of fanbase that is waiting to lap up a sequel in equal or greater numbers. Instead of being burned by poor quality product I would say most people got what they wanted from the first game and have no need for a second, you don't burn through a party game like you do a story driven game. This is the major hurdle Wii Resort faces in my opinion, convincing people they need to own it as well as Wii Sports.

I disagree. You are over analyzing the issue. I rented the first Deca Sports and it was complete and utter crap. I felt robbed just from renting it. I would never consider renting the second one, let alone buying it. I'm sure all those people who bought the first Deca Sports feel equally robbed from their first purchase. The failure of Deca Sports 2 is quite simple. Its a sequel to a terrible game. The first one sold well because it seemed like it was an expansion on wii sports which it is not - it is far inferior to wii sports.

 

[poppabk]

I disagree. You are over analyzing the issue. I rented the first Deca Sports and it was complete and utter crap. I felt robbed just from renting it. I would never consider renting the second one, let alone buying it. I'm sure all those people who bought the first Deca Sports feel equally robbed from their first purchase. The failure of Deca Sports 2 is quite simple. Its a sequel to a terrible game. The first one sold well because it seemed like it was an expansion on wii sports which it is not - it is far inferior to wii sports.

Well to match anecdote to anecdote, I really liked the first Rayman Rabbids, but never bothered with the sequels because I didn't need another Rabbid based party game. The truth is probably a mix of the two factors with some others thrown in.

 

[Jokeropia]

No the ratios i post didn't perfectly match the information you posted in that link and for further proof i posted more ratios to other games that weren't on that list at all.

The ratios for the first five games you posted in that old thread all matched the comgnet data pretty much perfectly. I remember this clearly because I went through the calculations several times back then and made a comment about it as well. (Which you left unanswered.) After you got called out, you posted some additional numbers that didn't match but it's still way to much of a coincidence that all the first five numbers you posted matched so well.

Edit: Guess what? I can prove it.

Here's your post with the preorders. (Here's Schuelma's quote of it should you feel like editing.)

Dragon Quest 9 4.5x > Yakuza 3
Dragon Quest 9 5x > Resident Evil 5 (PS3)
Dragon Quest 9 12x > Star Ocean 4
Dragon Quest 9 17x > Street Fighter 4 (PS3)
Dragon Quest 9 35x > Resident Evil 5 (XBOX360)

Here's the Comgnet preorder data for that exact day (January 25 2009)

1 [NDS] Dragon Quest 9 defense of the night sky - 1406pt (+14 pt)
2 [PSP] Tales of The World REDIANTOMAISOROJI 2 - 539pt (+15 pt)
3 [PS3] Ryu ga Gotoku 3 - 305pt (+12 pt)
4 [PS3] Resident Evil 5 (PS3) - 282pt (+2 pt)
5 [PSP] Kingdom Hearts BASUBAISURIPU - 201pt (± 0pt)
6 [NDS] Kingdom Hearts 358/2Days - 129pt (+1 pt)
7 [PSP] Musou Makoto Kunizou MULTI RAID - 123pt (+3 pt)
8 [Xbox360] Star Ocean 4-THE LAST HORP-- 116pt (+5 pt)
9 [NDS] Dragon Quest 6 - 115pt (± 0pt)
10 [PSP] Winning Eleven 2009 - 108pt (+4 pt)

11 [PS3] Street Fighter 4 (PS3) - 83pt (+2 pt)
12 [NDS] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles Echoes of Time - 78pt (+1 pt)
13 [PSP] The Idol Master SP PAFEKUTOSAN - 75pt (± 0pt)
14 [PS2] Winning Eleven 2009 - 70pt (+7 pt)
15 [PSP] The Idol Master SP Missing Moon - 70pt (± 0pt)
16 [NDS] Shining Force Feather - 69pt (+1 pt)
17 [PSP] The Idol Master SP WANDARINGUSUTA - 69pt (± 0pt)
18 [Wii] Monster Hunter 3 - 56pt (± 0pt)
19 [PS2] AMAGAMI - 45pt (+2 pt)
20 [Xbox360] Resident Evil 4 Deluxe Edition (Xbox360) - 40pt (+1 pt)

Compare the ratios to the ones you posted:

DQIX = 4.6x Yakuza 3
DQIX = 4.99x RE5 PS3
DQIX = 12.12x SO4
DQIX = 16.94x SFIV PS3
DQIX = 35.15x RE5 360

 

[thestopsign]

What do we think MH:G will do this week? We know from last that the the starter pak was what went initially and that there was plenty of the standard available

So if sales are lower (lower than say a normal 2nd week drop) do we attribute that to less starter pak availability? I mean the classic controller is required or else MH:G will not boot up so its not a "normal" game by any means

I expect somewhere from 40-50k.

 

[d+pad]

What do we think MH:G will do this week?

I have a feeling the game will sell fairly well the next two weeks, what with Golden Week and all. Seems like a game that would sell well during that period. Plus, there aren't any other major releases (on any of the consoles) are there?

 

[AranhaHunter]

I have a feeling the game will sell fairly well the next two weeks, what with Golden Week and all. Seems like a game that would sell well during that period. Plus, there aren't any other major releases (on any of the consoles) are there?

Nope, I'm gonna guess 66K.

 

[schuelma]

I think it depends on how many CC bundles are out there. If there is plenty supply, I think 65K is a good estimate.

 

[Tenbatsu]

Support MHG! It is a very good port! So much new content! I am guessing they will announce MH2 port soon.

 

[BishopLamont]

The ratios for the first five games you posted in that old thread all matched the comgnet data pretty much perfectly. I remember this clearly because I went through the calculations several times back then and made a comment about it as well. (Which you left unanswered.) After you got called out, you posted some additional numbers that didn't match but it's still way to much of a coincidence that all the first five numbers you posted matched so well.

Edit: Guess what? I can prove it.

Here's your post with the preorders. (Here's Schuelma's quote of it should you feel like editing.)Here's the Comgnet preorder data for that exact day (January 25 2009)Compare the ratios to the ones you posted:

DQIX = 4.6x Yakuza 3
DQIX = 4.99x RE5 PS3
DQIX = 12.12x SO4
DQIX = 16.94x SFIV PS3
DQIX = 35.15x RE5 360

But it's off by .01 for RE5! See they don't match up!

It's obvious it was comgnet numbers, him cooking up different numbers after getting called out is not proof what so ever. The whole "you either believe him or you don't" mentality some people have exerted reminds me of the God versus Science debates.

 

[cvxfreak]

Support MHG! It is a very good port! So much new content! I am guessing they will announce MH2 port soon.

An MH2 port should probably have 2G content that would come to console for the first time, right? I've been looking to get into the series for awhile, but I don't think I'd want to play it on PSP.

 

[d+pad]

It'll be interesting to see how Nintendo and esp. Capcom learn from the Monster Hunter G situation when they release MHtri - i.e., if they bundle the game with a system or controller, will they offer more of them than they offered so far with MHG?

Man, NOJ is *stupid* if they don't do a game/system bundle for MHtri...

 

[doicare]

Snip

It's a novel idea but did you ever stop and think that there is a set of data out there that some people and companies have access to and from that they make sales estimates? It's pretty obvious that website you posted has access to the same or similar data that my sources get. However they either don't get all the data i get or they choose not to post it, not to mention i get to see actual numbers not some crazy points system they seem to use. And as for why i didn't originally respond to you in the other thread that's because you had just repeated what somebody else had said and i'd already answered the other persons post.

But it's off by .01 for RE5! See they don't match up!

It's obvious it was comgnet numbers, him cooking up different numbers after getting called out is not proof what so ever. The whole "you either believe him or you don't" mentality some people have exerted reminds me of the God versus Science debates.

Wow you really have nothing better to do.

 

[Tenbatsu]

An MH2 port should probably have 2G content that would come to console for the first time, right? I've been looking to get into the series for awhile, but I don't think I'd want to play it on PSP.

Wait for Tri, no point playing others since its just round the corner. Reason being, MH games are too time consuming.

 

[BishopLamont]

Wow you really have nothing better to do.

Awesome retort. There's proof you used comgnet numbers, and nothing that points out you didn't, but hey keep playing dumb.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

the latest Yu-Gi-Oh game on the wii bombed when the last few Yu-Gi-Oh games usually did 100,000 to 200,000.

You must be getting something mixed up or I can't find the recent ones. Though the 2008 Top 500 may change things, the last Yu-Gi-Oh game I see over 100K was a 2005 DS release. The last one that passed 200K was a 2002 GBA release. The last console game to chart at all seems to be this 2004 PS2 game which sold 8K its first week and an additional 9K over the next 5 months.

Support MHG! It is a very good port! So much new content!

So the port of the rerelease with new content... itself has new content? Monster Hunter G G?

 

[Tenbatsu]

So the port of the rerelease with new content... itself has new content? Monster Hunter G G?

Yeah Monster Hunter G²:lol

 

[cvxfreak]

Wait for Tri, no point playing others since its just round the corner. Reason being, MH games are too time consuming.

But what about Monster Hunter G?

 

[Tenbatsu]

But what about Monster Hunter G?

No point really, unless you got like maybe a few hundred hours to spare or to experience old stages. Tri is SOoooo much better. Its like playing RE4 GC when you have RE4 Wii (but of course Tri is not out yet and I know I am contradicting lol)

 

[doicare]

Awesome retort. There's proof you used comgnet numbers, and nothing that points out you didn't, but hey keep playing dumb.

There's as much proof that the website has the same or similar source as i do as there is proof i used their numbers, but hey if you want to continue to be ignorant please be my guest.

 

[charlequin]

It's a novel idea but did you ever stop and think that there is a set of data out there that some people and companies have access to and from that they make sales estimates?

And as already pointed out to you, numbers like Comgnet are worthless for sales predictions even if they are fully detailed and accurate -- we have already rejected using these numbers (and even banned people for repeatedly insisting on doing so) in the past. It doesn't actually matter if you're just taking Comgnet numbers yourself or getting a "similar" source of data -- either way, that information is beyond useless.

 

[BishopLamont]

There's as much proof that the website has the same or similar source as i do as there is proof i used their numbers, but hey if you want to continue to be ignorant please be my guest.

facepalm.gif

You just don't learn do you.

 

[markatisu]

No point really, unless you got like maybe a few hundred hours to spare or to experience old stages.

Isnt that every MH game (the few hundred hours part) :lol

Tri is SOoooo much better. Its like playing RE4 GC when you have RE4 Wii (but of course Tri is not out yet and I know I am contradicting lol)

Agreed, Tri is not out yet but the demo sold me instantly and I know its going to be the best MH game to date, if PSP owners want to sit on the sidelines (which I doubt they will) and wait for a mobile version they are going to be missing out.

MH:G also is not just a straight port from the PS2 (it has quite a few changes) and while all the quests remain practically the same I think it could have some pretty decent legs since the online servers are going to be running for quite some time and will be shutting down for the PS2 version of the game.

The CC using the PSP controls is top notch, I went back yesterday to playing some MHF2 and almost put it down in disgust having to control the camera with the fucking horrible d-pad and shit stick.

 

[doicare]

facepalm.gif

You just don't learn do you.

*rollseyes* it's the same old story with you, you continuously come into threads i've posted in and leave a derogatory comment about me or get into a hissy fit because you think i'm having ago at the beloved console of your choice which you are a massive fanboy of. You continuously post replies to me acting like a little kid desperate to have the last word and when you have no conclusive proof to prove me wrong you just get even more wound up and reply with even more insults. You've given your opinion, that's fine, now stop posting and ruining this thread with pointless replies so we can get back to a sales discussion.

 

[BishopLamont]

*rollseyes* it's the same old story with you, you continuously come into threads i've posted in and leave a derogatory comment about me or get into a hissy fit because you think i'm having ago at the beloved console of your choice which you are a massive fanboy of. You continuously post replies to me acting like a little kid desperate to have the last word and when you have no conclusive proof to prove me wrong you just get even more wound up and reply with even more insults. You've given your opinion, that's fine, now stop posting and ruining this thread with pointless replies so we can get back to a sales discussion.

Oh the irony.

 

[Jokeropia]

It's a novel idea but did you ever stop and think that there is a set of data out there that some people and companies have access to and from that they make sales estimates? It's pretty obvious that website you posted has access to the same or similar data that my sources get. However they either don't get all the data i get or they choose not to post it, not to mention i get to see actual numbers not some crazy points system they seem to use.

As far as I know, the COMG reservation rankings simply reservations from one retailer chain and doesn't really represent the market as a whole. (There are other rankings for other chains as well.) For COMG reservations to match total reservations across all of Japan is very unlikely. Regardless though, COMG data is completely public (posted on their website every day) and what you posted did not reveal anything that those public numbers don't, yet you acted in that post as if you "had managed to get your hands" on some secret insider data. That's what made people snarky in their responses.

Edit: You also seem to have missed posts by Joshua and charlequin up there.

 

[schuelma]

Where are ma famitsu numbers!!

 

[test_account]

Where are ma famitsu numbers!!

If i am not mistaken, i think that today is the last day of the Golden Week, so i dont know if we get the Famitsu numbers today :\ Famitsu.com havnt posted the top 10 numbers either :\

 

[schuelma]

If i am not mistaken, i think that today is the last day of the Golden Week, so i dont know if we get the Famitsu numbers today :\ Famitsu.com havnt posted the top 10 numbers either :\

I think we got them last year. Seriously my whole week will be ruined if we don't get em :lol

 

[Spiegel]

I think we got them last year. Seriously my whole week will be ruined if we don't get em :lol

Sinobi's blog has been updated but there aren't any new numbers for this week, only April sales.

Hardware:

[B]System    2009     2008[/B]

NDS       195k     170k
PSP       160k     380k
PS3       109k     38k
WII       67k      187k
360       27k      8k

Top 3 games:

1.NDS Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (Pokemon)       198k
2.WII Monster Hunter G (Capcom)               142k
3.PSP Sengoku Basara Battle Heroes (Capcom)   130k

:/

 

[schuelma]

Sinobi's blog has been updated but there isn't any new numbers for this week, only April sales.
/

Maybe we'll get something tomorrow. Seems like the actual mag is delayed as well.

 

[test_account]

I think we got them last year. Seriously my whole week will be ruined if we don't get em :lol

Ah ok. Now that you mention it, i think i remember that we got them last year ye. It doesnt seem that we get them today (at least not after european time) Hopefully we will get it tomorrow. Hehe, ye, it is boring when we dont get the numbers, i agree

 

[nli10]

There's also the very good point that WSR's target audience does not preorder. "In U.K. they do!" 1) I don't think it's the target audience that's preordering, 2) people actually buy Wii games in the U.K., so they freqent the stores a lot more often. I expect WSR to re-interest consumers in the Wii.

UK casual consumers refused to pre-order, for no money down, WiiFit, Wii, WiiPlay etc. which were all sold out over Christmas when stock was guaranteed for certain days and all they had to do was leave a phone number and a name. The stock came in as expected and some people would come back into the store on the end of those days or the following day and be surprised that they had all gone, but still decline to place orders for the next week.

It's just the way our casual, family gamers work.


I don't expect WSR to be topping any high street pre-order charts until a week or so before - in fact even online at Gameplay it's only 5 & 6 in the Wii only Pre-orders and those are ready to ship orders. (site always lists the games in number of total pre-orders). Doesn't feature in the all formats top 10 pre-orders at all.


Pre-orders only EVER tell you who expects to need the game on day one so for Halo etc. they are big, and big way in advance. This is a world wide trend.

WSR is a perennial and will sell better in its 2nd chart week in the UK. Unless it all sells out in the first!

 

[PantherLotus]

Yep looks like we won't be getting an MC update this week. :| Next week's numbers should be fun. Thanks to donny2112 for taking over here.

 

[Raggy]

Yep looks like we won't be getting an MC update this week. :| Next week's numbers should be fun. Thanks to donny2112 for taking over here.

why?

 

[Rolf NB]

why?

Holiday-like event that makes workers not work.