Better question, when was the last new ip released on a home console in Japan which had the potential to break even a million.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Better question, when was the last new ip released on a home console in Japan which had the potential to break even a million.
edit:
wii sports?
Most recent? I'd say Nintendoland, if done right. And not on a bomba system
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
I wouldn't be surprised. I've heard rumblings of the next MH game being multiplatform, so it'd make sense. I'm guessing Capcom is going to get some kind of port ready for PS4/NX first, before pimping Monster Hunter 5 in 2017.
Isn't DQX doing really good there?
I saw it as beast and have people at all age and gender playing.
And seem like many here in this thread think FFXV will never break million? Why?
Doing really well for a MMO means having an audience 1/10 the size of the audience for a normal release but constantly extracting revenue over years. FFXIV is also quite popular but it doesn't appear to have helped FFXV.
EDIT:
Very possible but we also heard rumblings of Monster Hunter 4 being multiplatform with Vita for years and then we heard rumblings about Portable 4th for a few years after that.
Good. And before that? Bonus, what about third party only?
Wii Sports 3 724 565
Wii Fit 3 561 787
Wii Play 2 804 201
Wii Party 2 389 549
Wii Play 2 804 201
Wii Party 2 389 549
Super Smash Bros. 1 632 046
If we're talking hypothetical then Dragon's Dogma might have been able to hit a million if things went a bit differently.
Why would it? Even Resident Evil can't sell a million in a single SKU on the PS3.
Dragon's Dogma and Nintendoland i guess? But the Japanese Market sadly does not response well there.T_T
Umm.... because the game tried to combine a great formula of very succesful Monster Hunter into open world rpg with fantasy setting? That one actually shows that Capcom tried their best to make it successful.^_^
Well I thought it sold like 700-800k but now I think I was misremembering badly...
I think if the game had actual (good) multiplayer it would have a million though but I guess that means its not a great answer.
Well Im curious what titles we can come up with where there was at least some expectation that it could sell a million as what it is, not what it could have been.
Stuff like One Piece Musou and RE6 are the sort of titles I'm thinking of, but they are not new IPs. It feels like creating new hit IPs on consoles is a thing of the past for Japan.
Did i miss something ? They can release DQXI in 2019 on 3DS and it will sell like 3m copies. DQ main releases will always be a big event - the IP doesnt have to prove anything anymore - this is the Anniversary mainline game so expect SE to market shit out of the game.
DQ console spin-offs are more impacted by suboptimal release timing or mobile game satisfaction - there is no DQ main game substitute. DQXI having a worse time relatively to FF XV is just crazy talk in my opinion.
While i agree with you that DQXI on 3DS is still going to sel a lot, in 2017. I don't think it is going to reach that 3 million sales easily. At that time, 3DS software sales power will decline even much more which will made it even harder to reach that number.
Not to mention, if NX also had the game released at launch, i can see NX kinda killing DQXI 3DS momentum too.
No, you're totally correct. Dragon's Dogma is the only one that even came remotely close and it was still leagues away.
I really don't see it. I think DQXI might barely hit 3 million between all three systems(if we're including NX). That's a.bif drop from IX and XI is releasing over three consoles and there's even been two distinct versions developed. That's a lot rougher than FFXV being barely over a million, especially considering FF can still hypothetically make up sales in the West.
the yooka will save us.
right with mn9
edit
but in terms of New IP 3rd Party games that can break 1 million a home console. I guess it'd have to be something kid oriented. Like a Yokai watch.
NX being considered a home console might make something possible. Assuming it doesn't bomb horribly.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
Yes we did, but those were nonsense and never really made much sense. I'm not committing to anything right now, just mentioning that what Nirolak said would make sense, given what I've heard.
Assuming NX will be a late port the split should be something like 75 / 25, 3m for 3DS / 1m for PS4. If NX has a simultaneous release it depends which version it's based on for where it will cut sales.
Kresnik258
Member
Go home Rakuten, you're drunk.
Napalm_Frank
Member
Are we expecting DQXI at TGS?
I bet on December, own event or jump festa 2017.
I agree.
I hope so but sadly I think Square Enix won't want to show it because it could detract from all the attention FFXV will be getting at the time (TGS is 2 weeks before FFXV's release). Hopefully they show it off not too long after FFXV's release. Jump Festa is a possibility.
So your main argument for worse DQ main game sales is the fact that it's being released late into the system cycle? Really?
There is no substitute for a mainline DQ, the game will sell as much as the other Top Tier games on the Plattform it's released. If Pokémon can sell 5m there is no way DQXI sells less than 3m across all plattform. That would be the worst case scenario any... at least 3m for the 3DS and a +1m for the HD versions PS4/NX is more likely.
I don't even know where this is coming from - the demand for a story based single player DQ is high. The game... all 3versions looked very good the last time we saw them. There are many Japanese based console games we should worry about - DQXI isn't one of them.
There is no substitute for a mainline DQ, the game will sell as much as the other Top Tier games on the Plattform it's released. If Pokémon can sell 5m there is no way DQXI sells less than 3m across all plattform. That would be the worst case scenario any... at least 3m for the 3DS and a +1m for the HD versions PS4/NX is more likely.
I don't even know where this is coming from - the demand for a story based single player DQ is high. The game... all 3versions looked very good the last time we saw them. There are many Japanese based console games we should worry about - DQXI isn't one of them.
What about both? 3ds version on handheld mode and ps4 version on console mode.
I don't understand the point in debating the influence of a possible NX version on the sales of DQXI. In the end, it's all DQXI sales. They can have it on 1 platform or 10 platforms. It's a numbered DQ, a franchise which remains healthy in Japan and popular across all age demographics. What is even being argued here?
Wii Party in 2010.
Super Mario Maker is next one (yeah yeah I know that can be seen as not a new IP).
Really? Haven't only DQVII and DQIX sold four Mil?
Those two were released in more hospitable times on stronger platforms too.
The people that made DQIX such a success can just play Hoshi No Dragon Quest.
Edit: I guess it depends how much double dipping there is.
KillerMan91
Member
What is the connection between Yokai Watch and FFXV? Is every single big release from now on going to bomb because Yokai Watch 3? They are even targetting pretty much completely different demographics. Yokai Watch elementary schoolers and FF high schoolers/young adults. FF should have way more older and more hardcore fanbase than Yokai Watch as it's way older series that have sold well for decades.
You keep going very far with the mobile theories you have.
Sun / Moon will collapse because everyone plays Pokemon Go.
Agreed. Not sure why those keep being posted as Famitsu surveys only cover an extremely small and now unsignificant portion of the game market in Japan (even if you don't take into account mobile, which doesn't make much sense but for argument's sake let's ignore that elephant).
I mean, the audience that fill in those surveys are:
Total playerbase > "core" players > "core" players that actively search for information about games > "core" players that actively search for information about games and buy Famitsu > "core" players that actively search for information about games and buy Famitsu and actually fill in the survey.
Even GameFAQs daily polls are more relevant at this point.
I already posted that theory before, but I think we could be looking at MHGXG (3DS-only in Japan), then NX version in the second half of 2017 simultaneous with the west.
Having played Pokemon Go and not Hoshi No Dragon Quest the latter looks a lot closer to the core gameplay of the main series(especially IX).
It's also hard to ignore the tangible affect mobile is having on dedicated series. Nearly everything is in a place of serious decline.
Edit: On a mostly unrelated note Nagoshi/Sega seriously know how to milk a shrinking fanbase for all they're worth.
Huh. Thats optimistic view from you Chris.^_^ Well, i feel that reaching 4 million combined with NX is not going to be difficult but i still had the feeling that 3DS version is going to underperform vs our huge expectation here.
Moor-Angol
Banned
What is the sense of the Yokai comparation?
You said that COMG is not an indication for say if Final Fantasy is bombing hard. Then, look at Yokai Watch.
COMG showed a terrible performance, many people said "ratio will be good!" then look what's happen.
No, not every games gonna bomb that hard, but hey, not all games are Persona or Pokémon.
Famitsu has always been a rpg oriented magazine, so it's normal to see a lot of rpg if they make a readers most wanted list
Their Most Wanted Chart has never been an indication of the market and it will never be, I think it's already 10 years I say this thing here
Actually, I wasn't talking specifically of FFXV or RPG in general. Just giving my two cents on the Famitsu survey.
And not surprising Famitsu would be RPG-focused, since that's the prominent genre among "core" players in Japan.
KillerMan91
Member
Well I just have a problem using comgnet as some kind of gospel of truth. Especially with comparisons to games released years and years ago. Comgnet's ratio between actual sales pts and preorders pts has grown overall in the past years. For example if I remember right Darsk Souls III had way less comgnet points than the prequels and yet opened around the same numbers. I mean of course maybe comgnet is again right and FFXV will see that huge drop you are saying but I just have a problem with stating this almost as a fact ''Comgnet shows less way points for game '*A'' therefore it will drop just as much in real sales''.
DQ XI will do really well.
The platform split if the PS4/NX version are
1. The same game.
2. Released the same day.
will be very interesting.
It would be the earliest a DQ mainline game ever released in a console's lifespan though by a lot if they hit their target for launch. Even DQ V was almost two years after the Super Famicom's launch.
The platform split if the PS4/NX version are
1. The same game.
2. Released the same day.
will be very interesting.
It would be the earliest a DQ mainline game ever released in a console's lifespan though by a lot if they hit their target for launch. Even DQ V was almost two years after the Super Famicom's launch.
Hero of Legend
Member
Wasn't DQX only 4 months after Wii U's launch? We don't know when DQXI is coming out.
That's a later down the road port though.