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[crinale]

There's nothing to add. We know Bayonetta 2 is going to bomb. That doesn't excuse the tired retreading of ground relating to why it is Wii U exclusive.

To be fair the sales number (or drop ratio between predecessor) should reflect how many true "fans" existed. That being said, without Nintendo then sales number would be zero so there's that I guess.

I saw this interesting piece on the Wall Street Journal this morning: http://online.wsj.com/articles/google-helps-japanese-game-makers-expand-overseas-1411060095



If you include that with the size of the market for dedicated platforms, Japan's appetite for video games has not really diminished despite oft cited issues like stagnant economy, ageing population etc. If mobiles continue to gut traditional gaming in the west, Japanese developers have a shot at retaking the initiative in video games.

I guess this is probably old news to most of you veteran industry watchers but for me, it's eyeopening.

I guess we had a thread about a while ago. And yes, as a whole Japan's gaming market had not contracted at all. It is just money shifted from dedicated gaming device to mobile phones.

 

[MilesTeg]

You expected an exclusive Lego game to save the Wii U by itself? The Wii U was already in huge trouble by the time the game actually released. The Wii U had huge issues basically the minute it had miserable sales in January and EA backed off, followed by Ubisoft delaying Rayman Legends. Lego games have been selling better on 3DS & Wii U compared to other platforms in a lot of cases, and I attribute that the two exclusive Lego titles for 3DS & Wii U (Undercover: Chase Begins & Undercover respectively). Considering how basically nothing except Mario (NSMBU, 3D World & now MK8) has sold ok on the Wii U anyways, that's a pretty big success that a Lego exclusive resulted in at least something selling well on the Wii U. It sold 100K in its opening month in the US, which is more than you can say for a lot of much larger franchises on Wii U. I doubt Nintendo even marketed the game lol.

I'm confused. Where did I say I expected the game to save Wii U by itself? I said it was a bad bet. Which it was. A third party exclusive built from the ground up for your platform that doesn't drive hardware sales at all within 6 months of launch. It was a total non-factor. Lego games had a history with Nintendo hardware prior to Lego City too, don't pretend like that was the first release on Nintendo hardware which changed everything regarding sales of the franchise on Nintendo machines.

But the issue on the whole was multiple bad software decisions from the launch period until now, all the way down to Nintendoland and NSMBU, Game & Wario, Wii Fit U, and pretty much everything.

 

[makingmusic476]

Speaking of Platinum Games, any thoughts on how Scalebound might do?

Kamiya's greater emphasis on "mass appeal" relative to their past titles seems at odds with the exclusivity.

 

[StevieP]

Speaking of Platinum Games, any thoughts on how Scalebound might do?

Kamiya's greater emphasis on "mass appeal" relative to their past titles seems at odds with the exclusivity.

It's likely going to bomb, unfortunately. No amount of casualizing mechanics and hardcore GAF love will make it sell to the mass market. Much as with bayonetta (and most other stuff kamiya's done)

 

[ZSaberLink]

I'm confused. Where did I say I expected the game to save Wii U by itself? I said it was a bad bet. Which it was. A third party exclusive built from the ground up for your platform that doesn't drive hardware sales at all within 6 months of launch. It was a total non-factor. Lego games had a history with Nintendo hardware prior to Lego City too, don't pretend like that was the first release on Nintendo hardware which changed everything regarding sales of the franchise on Nintendo machines.

But the issue on the whole was multiple bad software decisions from the launch period until now, all the way down to Nintendoland and NSMBU, Game & Wario, Wii Fit U, and pretty much everything.

Well you said "It failed to generate interest in the platform at a critical time,", so I'm not sure what exactly you mean. Sales did actually go a bit up that month, I'm sure Lego City & MH3U were part of the reasons for that. However, being Nintendo, they didn't really do much with the titles they still had.

I don't see why it was a bad bet at all though. It wasn't an amazing bet, but it did alright for what it was. Comparatively, it was likely the only decent bet they made. It managed to move a good portion of the Lego fanbase successfully from the Wii to the Wii U, which hasn't happened for Just Dance, Skylanders, and Disney Infinity yet as far as I can tell. JD still sells like 800K in a month on Wii, but barely crosses 100K on Wii U total (US #s). Thus, since it's the only bet that's done anything for the Wii U really, I'd say it was a decent bet.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Speaking of Platinum Games, any thoughts on how Scalebound might do?

Kamiya's greater emphasis on "mass appeal" relative to their past titles seems at odds with the exclusivity.

Honestly I think one of the biggest weaknesses [or whatever you'd like to call it] of Platinum Games is the difficulty those types of titles are to market appropriately

Hopefully because MS likely paid quite a bit to fund it, MS sees to a proper marketing campaign for it

No idea though, probably will bomb I guess

 

[makingmusic476]

It's likely going to bomb, unfortunately. No amount of pussyfying mechanics and hardcore GAF love will make it sell to the mass market. Much as with bayonetta (and most other stuff kamiya's done)

See, that's the thing. His comments posted earlier today imply he's specifically pursuing more accessible game design for Scalebound in order to reach a larger audience.

Which doesn't make much sense to me, given the install base he's working with. Might as well just make another hardcore darling and target the mainstream with a multiplatform title.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

I don't want to see Bayonetta 2 sell poorly in Japan but sheesh 100K would be too much to ask?

 

[tazz3]

Dam Xbox 1 took a huge hit I think it will do like 3 k a week there

 

[Scum]

I don't want to see Bayonetta 2 sell poorly in Japan but sheesh 100K would be too much to ask?

Here. I fixed that number for you. ;_;

 

[SwiftDeath]

I don't want to see Bayonetta 2 sell poorly in Japan but sheesh 100K would be too much to ask?

Well going by this

From japanltdrank
PS3 Bayonetta 138,430 223,272 SEGA 2009-10-29
360 Bayonetta 66,211 118,165 SEGA 2009-10-29

And the fact that at the time PS3 had a Japanese install base of 3.75M and 360 had an install base of 1.15M

Bayonetta acheived a attach rate of

~6% on PS3
~10% on 360
~7% across both consoles

For Bayonetta 2 to sell 100k LTD on Wii U it would need an attach rate of less than

~5%

Which doesn't actually sound that out there although apparently TW101's LTD is like 27k? But that could obviously be less comparable than I would think

I'm not too optimistic on Bayonetta breaking 100k but I dunno

 

[crinale]

I don't want to see Bayonetta 2 sell poorly in Japan but sheesh 100K would be too much to ask?

Xbox version did sell 118K, so lifetime sales plus budget release it may reach 100K but who knows.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Wait I just remembered isn't Bayonetta 2 like $75 in Japan, notably higher than other mainline Wii u games for some reason?

 

[Scum]

NCL needs to seriously sort out their price tags for software.

 

[Hero of Legend]

All copies come with Bayo1 in JP no?

 

[SwiftDeath]

All copies come with Bayo1 in JP no?

Probably although I imagine it's worth offering Bayonetta 2 standalone for cheaper. Even with great content a large upfront price can cause sticker shock. Maybe it won't matter though I guess

 

[shinra-bansho]

Not the only time with Wii U either. TW101, ZombiU, Rayman Legends and Lego City were all bad bets. Not to mention Ninja Gaiden 3 and Batman Armored Edition. And the supposed EA partnership of course. Just a big fuck up all around software wise, including first party releases.

Lego City wasn't a bad bet, or at least not to the same degree as the others.

It was a good audience fit. And it sold, in relative terms, well.

I don't particularly see what would have been a better bet. This software didn't generate much interest because the system has fundamental flaws that make it unappealing to begin with.
It all comes down to: who was this system even made for?

 

[allan-bh]

Chris1964,

Your Xbox One LTD (Media Create) is wrong because first week sales are 25.674 and you put 25.764

 

[hiska-kun]

Media Create Sellthrough:

01./00. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.616) - 944.644 / NEW <93,45%> [Units Shipped => ~1.011k]
02./00. [PS4] Destiny # <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.09.11} (¥8.532) - 91.277 / NEW <74,87%> [Units shipped => ~122k]
03./00. [PS3] Destiny <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.09.11} (¥8.532) - 49.503 / NEW <87,37%> [Units shipped => ~57k]

Bundle Sales (included in software and hardware numbers):

[PS4] Destiny [PlayStation 4 Destiny] <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥48.578) - 15.000 / NEW

Destiny final pre-orders were 52k

 

[drotahorror]

Poor Castlevania

 

[Lumyst]

My point it's just it's not worth it for Nintendo that's it.
For gamers it's great for who have a wii u an bad for Playstation or Xbox gamers

I think titles like Bayonetta 2, Devil's Third, etc. are intended to change perception of Nintendo's brand, Iwata was saying there was a perception that Nintendo is casual. Or uninterested in certain kinds of content. So Nintendo does see value in changing the perception of what titles they are interested in.

I've heard the phrase "prestige title" used to classify that kind of title whose purpose is to change the perception of a brand. A guy at a car dealership once told me that car manufacturers make high end or unusual models, send them to races, to add to the prestige and perception of the brand, so maybe it's the same idea

Maybe when all is said and done, people will note Nintendo's efforts to get their customers to play online (SSB, Splatoon, Devil's Third, Xenoblade X it seems, they're upcoming games that are going to have online aspects), to buy digital content, to connect through Miiverse...or maybe there isn't much interest in their brand at all and thus not much of a perception to change. This is all rather qualitative for a sales thread though so I'll shut up now ;-)

 

[Pennywise83]

FuRyu is developing an exclusive 3DS jRPG: The Legend of Legacy, due on Jan 22nd. As already mentioned a while ago, FuRyu is surely a niche company which saw some returns from investing on 3DS (its previous jRPGs were multi with PSP or PSV).

 

[hiska-kun]

With Minecraft for PS3 selling more than 135k in 10 weeks just digital. Sony and Microsoft should be intelligent enough to release the PS4 and Vita version at retail before Christmas season.

I have a feeling September chart will be dominated by Gladiator Begins and Tekken 2

Discounts? It seems are working for Steins;Gate. I read there are some discounts for Marvelous games in september.

 

[zeromcd73]

Just realized GTAV is coming December for PS4. Hopefully it and tomorrows game can give the system a nice boost over the holiday season.

 

[Kresnik258]

FuRyu is developing an exclusive 3DS jRPG: The Legend of Legacy, due on Jan 22nd. As already mentioned a while ago, FuRyu is surely a niche company which saw some returns from investing on 3DS (its previous jRPGs were multi with PSP or PSV).

I sure hope they can find some success as 3DS exclusive, because Exstetra really underperformed as a Vita/3DS multi-plat and Lost Dimension bombed as a Vita/PS3 multi-plat.

They seem to have had decent enough success with licenced stuff (To Love Ru; Cardfight) but all their original stuff hasn't been taken off as of late.

 

[DrWong]

I think titles like Bayonetta 2, Devil's Third, etc. are intended to change perception of Nintendo's brand, Iwata was saying there was a perception that Nintendo is casual. Or uninterested in certain kinds of content. So Nintendo does see value in changing the perception of what titles they are interested in.

I've heard the phrase "prestige title" used to classify that kind of title whose purpose is to change the perception of a brand. A guy at a car dealership once told me that car manufacturers make high end or unusual models, send them to races, to add to the prestige and perception of the brand, so maybe it's the same idea

Maybe when all is said and done, people will note Nintendo's efforts to get their customers to play online (SSB, Splatoon, Devil's Third, Xenoblade X it seems, they're upcoming games that are going to have online aspects), to buy digital content, to connect through Miiverse...or maybe there isn't much interest in their brand at all and thus not much of a perception to change. This is all rather qualitative for a sales thread though so I'll shut up now ;-)

You're right I think.

 

[dofry]

Totally anecdotal things in this post, but Destiny popped up more than a few times in my Facebook feed from Japanese friends. Even the girl who works for Nintendo bought the white PS4 edition and she has been happy. Not like people can't buy consoles from competing companies anyway.
Before that, not many of my japanese friends talked about buying a PS4. Like at all really. Only about MGS when it was released.

Now, it has been Final Fantasy XIV video posts all day long. That should create a biiiig splash when released. Also Bloodborne is sure to create a good bumb. Bot of these are far away though. I wonder what games can keep the momentum for PS4 in Japan or if it will fall down below 10 000 again soon.

Monhan of course is crazy popular. Cashcow no matter where its released.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Discounts? It seems are working for Steins;Gate. I read there are some discounts for Marvelous games in september.

No they have exploits which enable to put CFW (Gladiator) and play PS1 ISO's with sound (Tekken 2)
Considering it has been passed almost a week without Sony releasing a new firmware, I suppose both games have become very popular

 

[Chris1964]

01./00. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.616) - 944.644 / NEW <93,45%>
02./00. [PS4] Destiny # <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.09.11} (¥8.532) - 91.277 / NEW <74,87%>
03./00. [PS3] Destiny <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.09.11} (¥8.532) - 49.503 / NEW <87,37%>
___

21./22. [PS3] Diablo III: Ultimate Evil Edition <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.08.21} (¥5.184)
22./35. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} (¥5.990)
23./33. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800)
24./18. [PS4] The Last of Us Remastered <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.08.21} (¥6.372)
25./30. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Dubbed Edition (New Price Edition) <ACT> (Square Enix) {2014.09.04} (¥3.024)
26./20. [PS3] Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin F - Coffin of the End # <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.08.28} (¥7.690)
27./34. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.800)
28./23. [PSV] Bullet Girls <ACT> (D3 Publisher) {2014.08.21} (¥6.799)
29./36. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800)
30./25. [PS4] Diablo III: Ultimate Evil Edition <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.08.21} (¥8.424)
31./41. [WII] Super Smash Bros. Brawl <FTG> (Nintendo) {2008.01.31} (¥6.800)
32./21. [PSV] Hyperdimension Action Neptunia U # <ACT> (Compile Heart) {2014.08.28} (¥6.458)
33./37. [3DS] Pokemon Art Academy <HOB> (Nintendo) {2014.06.19} (¥3.908)
34./07. [XB1] Titanfall # <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.09.04} (¥7.884)
35./15. [PS3] Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 <ACT> (Konami) {2014.09.04} (¥8.208)
36./40. [WIU] Dragon Quest X: All in One Package <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.08.07} (¥5.184)
37./32. [PS3] Ultra Street Fighter IV # <FTG> (Capcom) {2014.08.07} (¥4.309)
38./39. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.04.24} (¥6.664)
39./46. [3DS] Mario Party: Island Tour <ETC> (Nintendo) {2014.03.20} (¥4.800)
40./10. [XB1] Dead Rising 3 <ACT> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2014.09.04} (¥7.452)
41./43. [3DS] Kirby Triple Deluxe <ACT> (Nintendo) {2014.01.11} (¥4.800)
42./48. [3DS] Style Savvy: Trendsetters - Tokimeki Up! <ETC> (Nintendo) {2014.04.17} (¥4.936)
43./31. [PS3] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 <ADV> (Square Enix) {2014.09.04} (¥8.424)
44./38. [PSV] Persona 4: Golden <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.06.14} (¥7.329)
45./00. [3DS] Bravely Default: For the Sequel (Ultimate Hits) <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.08.07} (¥2.700)
46./00. [3DS] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2014: Samurai Blue Challenge <SPT> (Konami) {2014.05.22} (¥5.119)
47./49. [PS4] FIFA 14 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} (¥7.665)
48./26. [3DS] Gaist Crusher: God <ACT> (Capcom) {2014.09.04} (¥5.389)
49./29. [PS4] The Amazing Spider-Man 2 <ADV> (Square Enix) {2014.09.04} (¥8.424)
50./00. [3DS] Hoppechan: Minna de Odekake! Waku Waku Hoppe Land!! <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) {2014.07.17} (¥5.184)

Top 50

3DS - 20
PS3 - 10
PSV - 7
PS4 - 6
WIU - 3
XB1 - 2
PSP - 1
WII - 1

SOFTWARE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  ALL  |  1.439.000 |    464.000 |  2.065.000 | 26.842.000 | 30.081.000 |
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[duckroll]

So I think these are likely to be the biggest PS4 titles each month for the next 6 months or so:

Sep - Destiny
Oct - The Evil Within
Nov - Call of Duty Advanced Warfare
Dec - Grand Theft Auto V
Jan - Far Cry 4
Feb - Bloodborne
Mar - Final Fantasy Type-0 HD

March will also have Disgaea 5, and Yakuza 0 should be around March/April too. It's a pretty thin line-up overall until Feb anyway, mostly being kept alive by western games. It's funny because even The Evil Within is a western publisher, even though it's Mikami.

Destiny should be able to do >150k on the PS4, but legs will determine if it can hit 200k. Word of mouth will probably be key there.

The Evil Within... honestly I really don't know. I feel like there's zero hype for it anywhere in the world. Wouldn't be surprised if it tanked with <100k.

It'll be interesting to see if the CoD AW split is similar to Destiny's. If it is, that could be a really big title for PS4, since it sells almost 300k on PS3 normally.

GTAV is another interesting one. The TLoU and Tomb Raider remasters both did ~40k on the PS4 which isn't that great, but GTAV is a much bigger title, and the remaster looks much more significant. If it still moves similar numbers, that would tell us that the PS4 audience right now doesn't care for remasters much.

 

[Shahed]

You forgot the super secret announcement later today that everyone seems to know but hasn't leaked yet!

Oh and more seriously, isn't Dragon Quest Heroes March as well? How well (or bad) have previous Far Cry's done on PS3?

 

[Nightengale]

It'd be interesting to see the splits on God Eater 2 : Rage Burst.

 

[vicissitudes]

Isn't Dragon Quest Heroes in March? Something like that?

And Guilty Gear in December? That might outsell GTAV I think.

 

[Imouto]

Isn't Dragon Quest Heroes in March? Something like that?

And Guilty Gear in December? That might outsell GTAV I think.

Both those are multiplatform, though. It won't matter much for next gen, I think.

 

[Shahed]

Both those are multiplatform, though. It won't matter much for next gen, I think.

Yeah, but CoD, Destiny, and Evil Within are also listed which are PS3 as well.

 

[zeromcd73]

Both those are multiplatform, though. It won't matter much for next gen, I think.

DQ has that Slime model, and will probably get huge promotions from Sony advertising as a PS4 game. I think Sony are definitely going to try and use it to push some systems.

 

[Kresnik258]

I think GTA V will win December. It performed shockingly well on PS3.

Isn't God Eater scheduled for "winter"? No idea how well it'll do on a home console, but still, could be a contender for one of the months.

 

[jakncoke]

You forgot the super secret announcement later today that everyone seems to know but hasn't leaked yet!

Oh and more seriously, isn't Dragon Quest Heroes March as well? How well (or bad) have previous Far Cry's done on PS3?

Far Cry 2 14039
Far Cry 3 85114

 

[zeromcd73]

You forgot the super secret announcement later today that everyone seems to know but hasn't leaked yet!

C'mon, we all know now. It's "that" game.

 

[duckroll]

Oh and more seriously, isn't Dragon Quest Heroes March as well? How well (or bad) have previous Far Cry's done on PS3?

DQH has no official date so I didn't list it. Like I said, March already has a few other potential contenders too so it could be a pretty great month for the platform in general.

Isn't Dragon Quest Heroes in March? Something like that?

And Guilty Gear in December? That might outsell GTAV I think.

Guilty Gear is a non-franchise on retail in Japan.

 

[Imouto]

Guilty Gear is a non-franchise on retail in Japan.

Is it really that bad? I always have a perception that Guilty Gear is pretty big, even on console.

 

[Mario007]

DQH has no official date so I didn't list it. Like I said, March already has a few other potential contenders too so it could be a pretty great month for the platform in general.



Guilty Gear is a non-franchise on retail in Japan.

Sony likes its March relaunches. Wouldn't surprise me if the console got a regional price cut.

 

[sense]

Sony likes its March relaunches. Wouldn't surprise me if the console got a regional price cut.

yep was gonna say the same thing. ps4 price cut in japan alongside a DQ bundle and with type 0 coming out with ffxv demo and bloodborne and yakuza 0 and some of the niche titles like disgaea 5 it could be a good relaunch. deep down and persona could be a summer release so that might help as well. mgs 5 and ffxv(hopefully in japan) also for 2015 will make it a great year for ps4.

edit: actually mgs 5 is also rumored for march isn't it. there has to be a price cut to maximize sales imo

 

[BadWolf]

If there is a price drop incoming some time next year (or whenever), what do you guys expect it to be? $50 or $100?

 

[Nightengale]

If there is a price drop incoming some time next year (or whenever), what do you guys expect it to be? $50 or $100?

$299.

 

[zeromcd73]

If there is a price drop incoming some time next year (or whenever), what do you guys expect it to be? $50 or $100?

"Get a PS4 this 2015 holiday season with your copy of FFXV for just $299"

 

[sense]

could be 349 with uncharted in the US rather than straight drop to 299.

349 with big game - 2015
299 with big game - 2016
249 with big game - 2017

considering this gen could be a short cycle. it will be 199 in 2018 with new console coming out.

ofcourse they could be more aggressive if they are being beaten by MS and just straight drop 100 dollars but sony does love its bundles.

 

[Shahed]

Far Cry 2 14039
Far Cry 3 85114

Thanks. probably small but decent sales for Far Cry 4 then

C'mon, we all know now. It's "that" game.

DQXI? FFVIIR? MH4U? GT7? My guess is all of them for a Novermber release

DQH has no official date so I didn't list it. Like I said, March already has a few other potential contenders too so it could be a pretty great month for the platform in general.

Ah I see. I thought it was March but it was probably Q1/2 I read

 

[duckroll]

Is it really that bad? I always have a perception that Guilty Gear is pretty big, even on console.

Hmmm it might not be as dire as I thought.

2000 - Guilty Gear X (DC) - 131k
2001 - Guilty Gear X Plus (PS2) - 107k
2002 - Guilty Gear XX (PS2) - 146k
2003 - Guilty Gear XX #Reload (PS2) - 91k
2004 - Guilty Gear Isuka (PS2) - 74k
2006 - Guilty Gear XX Slash (PS2) - 87k
2007 - Guilty Gear XX Accent Core (PS2) - 50k
2008 - Guilty Gear XX Accent Core Plus (PS2) - 28k

2009 - Blazblue (PS3+360) - 86k
2010 - Blazblue Continum Shift (PS3+360) - 88k
2011 - Blazblue Continum Shift Extend (PS3+360) - 46k
2013 - Blazblue Chrono Phantasma (PS3) - 112k

Considering there hasn't been a Guilty Gear fighting game since the PS2, I guess this new one could do decently, especially since the audience for Blazblue is pretty similar. Anything from 80-120k I suppose, split between the platforms.

 

[zeromcd73]

LMAO at Shuhei's interview:

Yoshida: To be honest, Playstation has always been supported by big third party titles in Japan. Ridge Racer, Resident Evil, Final Fantasy VII, Metal Gear Solid, Monster Hunter...&#8230;

That pause after mentioning Monster Hunter >.>

Oh, and one more:

Q: What about The Last Guardian?
Yoshida: Development is going extremely well... I wonder if I said too much (laughs). The staff is continuously working very hard on the title, so please look forward to it.