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Nintendo shares plunge 6% by Monday close after trading as low as -18%

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Log4Girlz

Member
And that would then take away a good reason to own the tablet: compatibility with android apps/games. If WP can only get 4% market share so far, what hope would a proprietary Nintendo OS have in the mobile space? They might as well just add some buttons and you have a dedicated handheld.

Unfortunately he is talking about the reality. Nintendo will fuck up any attempt at a tablet...for sure. :(
 

Tempy

don't ask me for codes
I don't understand why it would need to run Android. Why can't they make their own, proprietary OS that's optimised for games and more secure, like the Vita OS? With the right policies, the necessary apps will come. I don't think they're losing a whole lot by not having access to the Google Play 'ecosystem'.

Would people buy a Nintendo Tablet just for the form factor but without all the Android Apps? Might as well stick to a dedicated gaming handheld, because that just sounds like what it is. Would Nintendo and third parties provide enough apps to make this a truly multi-purpose tablet? I have my doubts... Anecdotal, but I already had enough trouble deciding to switch from an iPhone to an Android phone because I'd be missing out on some iOS apps (of which there are no Android alternatives of equal quality yet)/
 
see this is the problem i have with this sort of thing. why is the market there for nintendo franchises on other platforms. where is the research to back this up. what do you have to support your argument.

Where is the research to suggest that the market is there for nintendo franchises on nintendo consoles? I know the question sounds ridiculous, but this is what the wii u shows us right now.

As of now even Knack has outsold 3d world. Knack. I find it hard to believe that mario and zelda would sell even worse as ps4/xb1 games.
 

dacuk

Member
This is the moment for Nintendo to open the vaults of their IP and put every game they have created on VC, creating new suscription schemes and plans.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I just don't think a Nintendo tablet or phone is a good idea. The market is way too crowded.

Their best option is to put VC games on mobile included with ads for their console/portable games. That could do exactly what Iwata hinted at when he said they need to make mobile customers aware of their library.

Then, Nintendo desperately needs another revolutionary Wii-like system to draw in casuals again. I really think VR is the next big wave to bring in those casuals but I have no faith they can be first to market with it.
 
Where is the research to suggest that the market is there for nintendo franchises on nintendo consoles? I know the question sounds ridiculous, but this is what the wii u shows us right now.

As of now even Knack has outsold 3d world. Knack. I find it hard to believe that mario and zelda would sell even worse as ps4/xb1 games.
UK = World ?

We're in 2014, British Empire shrunk a bit.
 

monome

Member
I feel like Nintendo still has potential.

I wouldn't mind a downscaling of their traditionnal games activities (cheap home/portable consoles living on a stream of classic Nintendo IP done in the vein of NES/SNES) and a broadening of games-oriented experiences (pursuit of Wii motion controls, VR, home automation, street pass, miiverse etc...) done in conjunction with major partners (Docomo, Softbank, Google, Amazon).

for example, a Nintendo home automation machine done in conjunction with Docomo/Google could be great family fun.

Nintendo has money to make by lending its name/ideas to outside partners. they would benefit from not taking the financial risks 100% on their own when developping new gaming experiences that are family oriented.

as far as traditionnal portable/home consoles are concerned, the day Nintendo publishes its games as 3rd party, I'm done with them unless it's some sort of unprecedented partnership with apple/google/amazon.
 

wsippel

Banned
And that would then take away a good reason to own the tablet: compatibility with android apps/games. If WP can only get 4% market share so far, what hope would a proprietary Nintendo OS have in the mobile space? They might as well just add some buttons and you have a dedicated handheld.
Well, whatever it would be, they almost definitely won't make an Android tablet, or any device running Android for that matter. It makes zero sense for Nintendo to compete with Apple or Samsung in the tablet space, or with Microsoft and Sony in the console space. They need to carve out their own niche.
 
Would people buy a Nintendo Tablet just for the form factor but without all the Android Apps? Might as well stick to a dedicated gaming handheld, because that just sounds like what it is. Would Nintendo and third parties provide enough apps to make this a truly multi-purpose tablet? I have my doubts... Anecdotal, but I already had enough trouble deciding to switch from an iPhone to an Android phone because I'd be missing out on some iOS apps (of which there are no Android alternatives of equal quality yet)/

They'd buy it for the games, in a form factor that appeals to people. Kids who come into my store say they prefer the 2DS because it looks like a tablet. Form factor is everything nowadays.

Maybe it's just me, but I think the hype around hot new phone apps has kinda died off. Once you have the essentials (facebook, YouTube, Twitter, a solid browser), everything besides games just seems superfluous.

The difficult part is we're talking about Nintendo here. They'd have to come up with the right, developer friendly policies and create an OS which is capable of executing this vision.
 

Coolwhip

Banned
Lots on GAF, investors, lots of articles claiming Nintendo should release their games on iOS. Both sides made good arguments, it must be a tough decision to make at Nintendo HQ.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Well, whatever it would be, they almost definitely won't make an Android tablet, or any device running Android for that matter. It makes zero sense for Nintendo to compete with Apple or Samsung in the tablet space, or with Microsoft and Sony in the console space. They need to carve out their own niche.

The way I see it, dedicated gamers are on console and PC. Casuals are on mobile. Any attempt at catering to casuals is going head to head with Ipad anyway.
 

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
I just don't think a Nintendo tablet or phone is a good idea.

Their best option is to put VC games on mobile included with ads for their console/portable games. That could do exactly what Iwata hinted at when he said they need to make mobile customers aware of their library.

Then, Nintendo desperately needs another revolutionary Wii-like system to draw in casuals again. I really think VR is the next big wave to bring in those casuals but I have no faith they can be first to market with it.

Maybe a mini-cast-AR set up would be more likely from them. But without the glasses. Like a box with one side missing, a camera to track your eyes, and some low power projector, projecting images onto the box sides to give an illusion of 3D inside the box.

Not really VR but it might be a something that is 'kind of' VR/AR ish but lower cost and more accessible. Depending on what 'mini projector' technology is like...

I don't know. They might take a kind of side on approach, I guess is what I'm saying. It still leaves questions about how or whether to hitch something like that to Wii U or to make it its own thing or to even bring it as a peripheral based platform to other devices.
 

kinggroin

Banned
I'm looking forward to changes as well. I'm a huge Nintendo fanboy... as much as I am a Sega one.

I really hope, like many people state, they get rid of their casual market because that is gone. They should focus on core games. X and Smash Bros are a great start but they need to keep the ball rolling.

There are more than enough platforming games out too so they really should also focus less on those... after Donkey Kong is released.

Core? The same core that refuse to buy the Wii U until it hits sub $100? The same core that love the games but are waiting for them to show up on a different platform?

Nintendo is fucked unless they have another Wii-like breakout; a precarious situation that they themselves are responsible for being in.

Maybe they get lucky and Sony leaves the gaming business due to bankruptcy. That's more believable at this point than them turning anything around in the eyes of core gamers.
 
I don't get why some people think that Nintendo making their own tablet is a good idea. Why not license their games for both iOS and Android to take advantage of the existing user bases there? I doubt Nintendo would be able to create a tablet with the appeal of the iPad; I think that a Nintendo only tablet would fail miserably, as many people already have tablets and it would be difficult to convince them that they need another. Better to sell games alone than sell nothing.
 

Brickhunt

Member
Lots on GAF, investors, lots of articles claiming Nintendo should release their games on iOS. Both sides made good arguments, it must be a tough decision to make at Nintendo HQ.
As long as the mainstream smartphones keep lacking, a least, an analog button. It's just not worth to release Nintendo games on them. Touchscreen-only is horrible to traditional gaming and will probably severely hurt brand perception.

At the very least, turn-based RPGs like Pokémon and Earthbound can work, I definitively think Nintendo should experiment with old-gen ports.
 

Tempy

don't ask me for codes
The way I see it, dedicated gamers are on console and PC. Casuals are on mobile. Any attempt at catering to casuals is going head to head with Ipad anyway.

What about catering to both?

With 2 devices :)

Which can like, GATTAI/SYMMETRICAL DOCK together - bringing dedicated and casual together again.

And all is well in the universe.
 

wsippel

Banned
The way I see it, dedicated gamers are on console and PC. Casuals are on mobile. Any attempt at catering to casuals is going head to head with Ipad anyway.
It doesn't matter who plays what on which class of device right now, Nintendo needs to come up with something customers feel is desirable and offers a good value proposition, without actually competing with anything directly. Similarities aren't a huge problem as long as they manage to differentiate their product. I mean, it basically makes zero sense to buy a tablet if you already have a smartphone, as they're essentially the same and even run the same software, yet people still do.
 

wsippel

Banned
If they don't announce a mobile game on the 30th, there will be blood. The stock will free fall.
They don't have to announce a mobile game, they have to provide a clear vision. No fluff, something substantial. Investors want to know where they're heading.
 

Kosma

Banned
Companion apps are such a long term project, they aren't going to drive more software sales any time soon. That really won't cut it.

Also getting people to buy 300 euro hardware after playing an 1 euro ios game is.... not going to happen, ever.
 
Speaking of Pokemon, how does this make you feel?
"Pay $0.99 for more pokeballs? Y/N"

What about a wealth of options for increasing exp gain and catch rates? O-Powers can be microtransactions! Oh, what a wonderful world!
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Could Nintendo be price competitive with a tablet?

Also companion apps have been universally shit so Nintendo should do something neat if they want attention.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
Could Nintendo be price competitive with a tablet?

Also companion apps have been universally shit so Nintendo should do something neat if they want attention.
Something like a pokedex could be neat, make it NFC compatible so you can bump phones and share info with friends. Feels like a typical Nintendo style thing.

I would love a hyrule historia like the book, update it whenever they release a new game. Fluff apps just to advertise the games is the way they go I think.
 
Whatever, sales are comparable. That's shocking enough as is.
PS4s hardware base in UK is quite higher and Knack is bundled, don't know what's shocking about this, 3D World can't do wonders on it own in UK.


3D World has 570.000 to 600.000 units in the USA, Knack has 150.000 to 200.000 units. Same hardware install base.

Plus 500.000 for 3D World in Japan, but PS4 didn't launch here yet.

Germany Top100 2013: 3D World is at #69, Knack didn't chart. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=96933308&postcount=25

etc.
 

Tobor

Member

I'm well aware of that article.

I'm also well aware of this one...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/20/us-nintendo-earnings-shares-idUSBREA0J00V20140120

...where analysts are issuing a "buy" rating based on the assumption that mobile is coming.

How long can Iwata play chicken with investors? This is going to get ugly.
 
There are currently 184.097 active games in the iOS store.

This number doubled since January 2012.


The only thing that ensures you good sales are:

- A place on the front page
- An already acclaimed franchise that gives you a good place on the front page
- A place in one of the categories / special lists in the App Store that doesn't come after rank 50
- Word of mouth / social media hype <- but this is probably more luck than anything


The directly visible part of games probably accounts for 0,50 % of all available games, if we assume that you can find 1.000 games through two-level-linkage.


Code:
Count of Active Applications By Month
Month	# Apps	# Games	# Total

(...)

2011-12	343,703	96,273	439,976
2012-01	358,144	98,892	457,036
2012-02	371,685	101,302	472,987
2012-03	388,422	104,142	492,564
2012-04	405,986	107,285	513,271
2012-05	424,624	110,380	535,004
2012-06	440,218	113,159	553,377
2012-07	455,020	115,880	570,900
2012-08	470,982	118,785	589,767
2012-09	490,912	122,230	613,142
2012-10	511,113	125,433	636,546
2012-11	531,976	128,450	660,426
2012-12	552,168	132,377	684,545
2013-01	575,636	136,090	711,726
2013-02	596,631	139,567	736,198
2013-03	619,642	143,621	763,263
2013-04	644,603	147,965	792,568
2013-05	669,581	152,212	821,793
2013-06	691,263	155,892	847,155
2013-07	715,135	160,595	875,730
2013-08	737,521	165,217	902,738
2013-09	763,089	170,071	933,160
2013-10	794,255	176,822	971,077
2013-11	812,653	181,861	994,514
2013-12	816,605	[B]184,097[/B]	1,000,702
source: http://148apps.biz/app-store-metrics/?mpage=appcount


In a theoretical scenario Nintendo has the benefit that it has acclaimed franchises which should get a good place on the front-page and overall buzz.

But you people should consider that only their biggest mainstream franchises should really benefit from this. Mario, Pokemon, probably Animal Crossing.

Kirby or Fire Emblem won't quadruple their sales, even if they do, they need to do this, because the price tag is probably 10 times smaller than it would be on their own device. Plus 30% pay-out-ratio to Apple.



I'll probably going to create a thread with a hypothetical scenario (also considering Android and the worldwide growing smartphone market) to see how much Nintendo could benefit or not from this mobile hype.

I read hundrets of posts and suggestions that Nintendo could make big money but I didn't see a single calcuation considering this topic.

I agree. The app store has grown and ia growning far to fast for an new player like Nintendo to make siginficant amounts of money. They should of been doing the groundwork years ago.

That is not to say Mario title X wont sell a fuckton on mobile, but past that one off novelty factor, Nintendo would struggle.
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
You know, you could write essays and articles until the cows come home, but what it comes down to for Nintendo is this: if they want to continue making hardware, they need to actually act like they want to continue making hardware. Look at how the company acted in the NES and SNES days. They weren't content to just put out games, they wanted a straight-up monopoly on the hardware side of the industry. Look at how Sony is acting right now. They want to be the hardware kings. Hell, even the Wii was Nintendo desperately wanting to stay relevant in the hardware space.

Throwing the Wii U out with no major games for over nine months is not "wanting it." Refusing to advertise the system is not "wanting it." There's no doubt that Nintendo could have, in an alternate reality, released the PS4. They just seemingly don't want to.
 

JoeM86

Member
I'm well aware of that article.

I'm also well aware of this one...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/20/us-nintendo-earnings-shares-idUSBREA0J00V20140120

...where analysts are issuing a "buy" rating based on the assumption that mobile is coming.

How long can Iwata play chicken with investors? This is going to get ugly.

Investors are just in it for a quick buck. The moment any company starts changing policies solely to please the investors is the moment the company ends.
 
PS4s hardware base in UK is quite higher and Knack is bundled, don't know what's shocking about this, 3D World can't do wonders on it own in UK.


3D World has 570.000 to 600.000 units in the USA, Knack has 150.000 to 200.000 units. Same hardware install base.

Plus 500.000 for 3D World in Japan, but PS4 didn't launch here yet.

Germany Top100 2013: 3D World is at #69, Knack didn't chart. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=96933308&postcount=25

etc.
My mistake.

But total sales are just over 1 million. With the Wii U tanking so hard right now, the game isn't going to have any legs. Other 3D marios sold around 9 million I think. This is going to be a huge drop off.

Surely Mario can do way better than 1 million LTD on ps4/xb1? LBP sold around 4 million IIRC, so there is definitely a market for non-shooter games out there.
 
There's no doubt that Nintendo could have, in an alternate reality, released the PS4. They just seemingly don't want to.

image.php
 

DSFan1970

Member
It's not that simple. If Nintendo moves anything near smartphones tablets and apps, they are done as a the company we have known and loved all these years. Their only hope, to preserve their rich IP would be to sell to Disney. One could argue Nintendo is the Pixar of the gaming world. Disney would respect the IP as they have similar demographic reach. This is their only hope right now. I do not want to see a Zelda on XBox. I think I would quit gaming at that point.

One could only imaginine what this upcoming conference will be like, the pressure Iwata must be under right now.
 

Busaiku

Member
\Surely Mario can do way better than 1 million LTD on ps4/xb1? LBP games all sold around 4 million IIRC, so there is definitely a market for non-shooter games out there.

No, that's a pretty big assumption to make.
For instance, Rayman Legends in the US has sold better on Wii U than PS3 and 360 combined.
 
Investors are just in it for a quick buck. The moment any company starts changing policies solely to please the investors is the moment the company ends.
Although I never tend to agree with you, I must agree with you here. Investors also want Apple to divest their ~$150B back to them as dividends and stock buy backs, and we all know this is not going to happen. There was also that controversy with Michael Dell and Carl Icahn (an investor) over ownership of Dell.

However, investors also reorganized the corporate structure of AIG and ousted Jerry Yang (co-founder of Yahoo) from his post as CEO.

So it could go both ways, but I'm leaning more towards you.

For reference, the largest three shareholders of Nintendo (excluding corporate treasury) are the Yamauchi family, JP Morgan and Chase and State Street.
 
Core? The same core that refuse to buy the Wii U until it hits sub $100? The same core that love the games but are waiting for them to show up on a different platform?

Nintendo is fucked unless they have another Wii-like breakout; a precarious situation that they themselves are responsible for being in.

Maybe they get lucky and Sony leaves the gaming business due to bankruptcy. That's more believable at this point than them turning anything around in the eyes of core gamers.
Whatever they end up doing, Nintendo can't afford another 10 months of one AAA title. A wide range and quantity of software will determine how well their products sell. It was Wii Play that got Wii started not the hardware independently

I also continue to believe that Nintendo games on Sony or Microsoft systems will turn them into Sega. Imagine "The Legend of Ganondorf 3: Gerudo Thieves" or "Rosalina's Highway of Stars"
 
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