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[Roders5]

coming soon to theaters near you!

Must be FF2 then, I ain't paying to see that shit, is this clip in the trailer or what? Is there more?

 

[Bungalow Bob]

I also contend that ps3 especially, and probably 360 as well, will never crack 30million each. I can't see ps3 getting past 20.

At this point it´s pretty much certain that 360 will sell over 30M.
As for PS3, it´s unlikely it will reach 30M, but certainly possible. I give it a 25% chance.

 

[Shiggy]

At this point it´s pretty much certain that 360 will sell over 30M.

Why do you think so?

 

[BuzzJive]

As I've done before, I'll stick my neck out and lay claim to that piece of writing. If anyone has any comments on the Gamasutra piece, feel free to let me know, since I may be doing a piece similar to this each month.

I'd like to think it's a hair more than your usual rundown of the NPD numbers, but that's just me.

The only part I questioned was the third party on Wii analysis. Were there any third party Wii titles on the top 10? No. Were there any that should have been? No. Spiderman 3 is probably the best bet, but it's not like the 360 and PS2 versions lit up the charts on their bigger userbases. It might have sold comparatively well.

The same can be said about all the third party titles for just about every month since launch - with the exceptions being Tiger Woods Wii (a late port), SSX Blur (a "remix") and Sonic. I don't have any data on Sonic, but it may not have missed the top 10 by much, and it's not like the Sonic games on the PS3/360 fared any better. Being in the top 10 isn't the only measure of success.

Will it be healthy if Harry Potter makes it this month? Sure. The GAF core would like to see RE4 make it too, but I certainly don't think it's expected. Manhunt 2 in August may be the first title that realistically "should" make the top 10, but I don't remember the first one being a blockbuster really.

 

[LCGeek]

Again, it is pointless to say who's winning in May. After the smoke clears from the holiday season, we will know who the winners are this gen. MS will have made their price cut and brought out their big exclusives. PS3 will have at least one huge title and maybe will cut the price enough to get back into the game. You can't declare a winner before the real armies have even arrived.

Until then, MS and Sony are in his boat.

Actually it's not pointless.

The holiday season is going to be so meaningless in terms of hardware for both companies if Wii is selling like hot cakes now. Almost all the hardware gains you would expect are going to be null by the amount hardware that's being pushed out for the rest of year with sales like these.

 

[G4life98]

why are people crowing that big time 3rd-party games on the 360 are outselling alot of quick ports and shovleware crap (save for a few titles ) on the wii.

traditional games will sell on wii, just like they sold on the ds... because guess what? nintendo fans are for the most part tradtional gamers and if you give them quality titles they will buy them...i dont understand whats so hard about that.

there will come a point where leaving a game off the wii is just financially irresponsible...i think that point has been reached in japan and devs who were waiting for the ps3 to recover, will get religion and start putting actual effort into thier wii games and using thier a-teams.

 

[gameboya]

Unless the data on the Wii sales change soon it's going to be easy to predict it's future sales. There is a little word called a "trend". Just ask Apple how the iPOD is doing.

For the most part it looks like a lot of people who were casuals that bought the ps2 are buying the Wii. Also I do think Nintendo have created some new market mindshare with lapsed and or total non gamers but they have yet to prove they will continue to chose playing the Wii over other forms of entertainment. This kind of data is probably a lot harder to track but we should see some results in a year or two. If anything Nintendo will have at least won all the casuals who bought the ps2 who now switched over to the Wii.

Hardcore gamers are also still desperately trying to purchase the system. The reason it continues to sells out is a combination of Nintendo not wanting to replicate the mess they created when they thought the Gamecube was going to be a massive success. Remember when they OVER PRODUCED? Nintendo probably took a big hit on the manufacturing side and decided they didn't want to cut into potential profit with the Wii and decided to take the safe route on how many units they produced.

Nintendo totaly underestimated the sheer amount of demand for the Wii hence the continued depleted store shelves. And sorry folks, it isn't going to stop anytime soon. If that pisses you off, find a new hobby because it's nothing short of great for the industry as a whole.

No publisher is going to completely sacrafice the CORE audience so all you paranoid whinney little kids please do us all a favor and stop already. They aren't going to all of a sudden shift all their internal dev teams to start pumping out casual style only games. What they will do at worst is a small split and then hire in more people to take on a new division of game creation. Last time I checked creating new jobs was a good thing.

 

[Bungalow Bob]

Why do you think so?

At this point last gen in the US (after all consoles were on the market for 7 months) Xbox was at 2.1M. 360 is now at about 5.6M. The one year headstart was huge, and people who think otherwise are fools. I also expect this holiday season to be the most successful ever for the Xbox brand. (Note: In Europe and Japan, 360 has made a similar improvement over Xbox.)

Because of this, 360 is getting and will continue to get better third party support than Xbox. It´s the whole sales -> more games -> more sales thing. In fact things are going well enough for 360 that sales of over 40M are more likely than not.

As for PS3, one thing I forgot to add to my last post is that is it VERY unlikely that PS3 will sell as well as GC in NA. Definitely less than a 10% chance. However, I think that it will outsell it by enough in other territories to outsell it overall.

 

[jvm]

The only part I questioned was the third party on Wii analysis.

You've got a fair point there. I would probably take the stance that it does matter if no third party is breaking the 100k barrier on the Wii in any given month, and that's essentially what's happened. In retrospect, I could have added that publishers have signaled that they're shifting resources to take advantage of the Wii and that it won't be a problem unless we're still saying the same thing in 2008...

 

[sonycowboy]

At this point it´s pretty much certain that 360 will sell over 30M.
As for PS3, it´s unlikely it will reach 30M, but certainly possible. I give it a 25% chance.

Absolutely ridiculous. It's possible, but only slightly so. The odd's are better for it hitting 60M than < 30M.

You're basing it off of how badly it's selling at $599 (and higher in the UK, lower in Japan) for it's entire lifecycle.

Crazy.

As for PS3, one thing I forgot to add to my last post is that is it VERY unlikely that PS3 will sell as well as GC in NA. Definitely less than a 10% chance. However, I think that it will outsell it by enough in other territories to outsell it overall.

Here you completely went off the deep end.

 

[quetz67]

At this point it´s pretty much certain that 360 will sell over 30M.
As for PS3, it´s unlikely it will reach 30M, but certainly possible. I give it a 25% chance.

Wow, I think this are downright stupid assumptions.

Dont you get what the PS3 means for Sony? It means their future in videogaming, it means their future in the bluray/hd-dvd fight, they want to sell their movie and music content on it, they even want to sell real estate in Home.

Losing just isnt an option. If sales continue to be sluggish, they will drop the price until they pick up, if that alone doesnt help they will increase marketing and will try to get more (exclusive) games out.

Anything they will and can do is cheaper than to admit defeat and to write off the huge R&D and not sell all that content from games to movies to whatever.

Nintendo had not nearly that dedication for the GC. The GC was more or less profitable from the beginning, they were happy to sell their first party games on it and being last didnt mean that much for them, as they made lots of money.

For the 360, I cant see how anything is certain, right now the sales are at xbox level more or less (though this time they have Halo and price drop still to come, which sure is an advantage, but not a guarantee for anything).

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

People are thinking with their hearts and not their heads again.

 

[Empty_One]

Some further analysis:

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=14341

'While much of the focus will be on the hardware sales alone, there are some other very interesting results just below the surface of the data: three consoles with diminishing sales, a key to the Nintendo DS sales streak, Spider-Man's weakness, and the game that sold more copies than Pokemon Diamond this month -- but wasn't in the top 10 list.'

* 2.8 million Nintendo DS systems were sold from June 2005 to May 2006.
* 6.7 million Nintendo DS systems were sold from June 2006 to May 2007

Wow, I knew the DS exploded when the Lite came out, but I hadn't seen the numbers put that way before.

 

[Shamrock]

That's okay. When Nintendo buy Microsoft they'll put Halo on the VC.

Don't think the Wii is powerful enough to run Halo.:lol Seriously

 

[quetz67]

Wow, I knew the DS exploded when the Lite came out, but I hadn't seen the numbers put that way before.

Those numbers make it look like design is much more important than touchscreen, double screen and whatever else the DS has to offer.

 

[Bungalow Bob]

Absolutely ridiculous. It's possible, but only slightly so. The odd's are better for it (PS3) hitting 60M than < 30M.

You're basing it off of how badly it's selling at $599 (and higher in the UK, lower in Japan) for it's entire lifecycle.

Crazy.

Here you completely went off the deep end.

Here you went completely off the deep end.
And I´m basing my prediction on other things as well - like the competition and sony´s price drop history.

I think that by the time it comes down to a mainstream $200, even casual gamers will think of the PS3 the way that they used to think of the GC 2 years ago.

You´re really underestimating just how badly Sony ****ed up this gen, while at the same time drastically overestimating the selling power of Sony´s first party games.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Yes, but it dropped faster than this. I mean...we're in June now. This has got to be getting "real" for some people out there, don't you think?

Bingo, if the Dreamcast was selling like crazy in all 3 territories, outpacing the PS2 then we would have seen Dreamcast 2 launch in 2005 being in a strong number 2 position or even *gasp* number 1.

 

[SS4Rob]

I dont know in what context this gif was used, but this performance of Nessun Dorma by Pavarotti is just amazing.

Thanks!

 

[frankthurk]

I almost feel the need to reply to some of the crazy Sony am doomed predictions in this thread... but then again what's the point? I think I'll just sit back, watch, and wait and see.

 

[quetz67]

Here you went completely off the deep end.
And I´m basing my prediction on other things as well - like the competition and sony´s price drop history.

How stupid is that? If a console sells extemely well, why drop the price? But if a console sells badly, who would even waste one thought about using the price drop strategy from last gen only because it worked back then? Maybe a slow moving and deadlocked mind like yours?!?

 

[borghe]

At this point it´s pretty much certain that 360 will sell over 30M.
As for PS3, it´s unlikely it will reach 30M, but certainly possible. I give it a 25% chance.

the 360 would have to sell at it's current rate for over 5.5 more years to hit 30M. Not saying it is or isn't likely, just to put things into perspective. To say it is pretty much certain is a bold statement. Is it possible? Definitely. Is it a certainty? Hell no. Is it likely? Who knows?

 

[jarrod]

Absolutely ridiculous. It's possible, but only slightly so. The odd's are better for it hitting 60M than < 30M.

I dunno, unless there's a major upset (and soon) I'd say the odds are about even either way. Just like 360 and PSP, PS3 is looking like a dead cert for somewhere more than Genesis (29m) but less than SNES (49m) territory. Only the Nintendo systems have a decent chance at cracking 50m this gen...

 

[Bungalow Bob]

Wow, I think this are downright stupid assumptions.

Dont you get what the PS3 means for Sony? It means their future in videogaming, it means their future in the bluray/hd-dvd fight, they want to sell their movie and music content on it, they even want to sell real estate in Home.

Losing just isnt an option. If sales continue to be sluggish, they will drop the price until they pick up, if that alone doesnt help they will increase marketing and will try to get more (exclusive) games out.

Anything they will and can do is cheaper than to admit defeat and to write off the huge R&D and not sell all that content from games to movies to whatever.

Nintendo had not nearly that dedication for the GC. The GC was more or less profitable from the beginning, they were happy to sell their first party games on it and being last didnt mean that much for them, as they made lots of money.

For the 360, I cant see how anything is certain, right now the sales are at xbox level more or less (though this time they have Halo and price drop still to come, which sure is an advantage, but not a guarantee for anything).

I completely agree with this. If Sony was no more aggressive with their PS3 pricing than Nintendo was last gen, PS3 would have debuted for about $799 US. It would currently be selling about 25K/month is NA, 10K/month in Japan, and somewhere in between in Europe.

If it wasn´t for this difference, PS3 would have no chance of selling anywhere near as well as GC. The reason why I expect PS3 to outsell GC is that I expect Sony to continue to invest huge amounts of money (and take huge losses) because the PLAYSTATION brand is so important to them.

 

[dammitmattt]

the 360 would have to sell at it's current rate for over 5.5 more years to hit 30M. Not saying it is or isn't likely, just to put things into perspective. To say it is pretty much certain is a bold statement. Is it possible? Definitely. Is it a certainty? Hell no. Is it likely? Who knows?

You do know that the 360 will drop in price, and you do know that its biggest games are yet to come. Just like sonycowboy said in regards to the PS3, it's not wise to predict 5 years worth of sales trends based on current pricing.

 

[Gekkonidae]

I completely agree with this. If Sony was no more aggressive with their PS3 pricing than Nintendo was last gen, PS3 would have debuted for about $799 US. It would currently be selling about 25K/month is NA, 10K/month in Japan, and somewhere in between in Europe.

If it wasn´t for this difference, PS3 would have no chance of selling anywhere near as well as GC. The reason why I expect PS3 to outsell GC is that I expect Sony to continue to invest huge amounts of money (and take huge losses) because the PLAYSTATION brand is so important to them.

I'm sorry guys, but there is only so much Sony can do. I'm not saying the PS3 will be a failure, I'm saying we need to get used to the possibility that it will fail. You guys are igoring that possibility by saying "Sony won't let it fail." I'm sorry, sometimes products fail to capture the public imagination, and no matter how hard a company pushes them they never really take off.

I know that Sony will eventually put up a fight, and I believe they have a good chanve to save the PS3, but Sony aren't all powerful. I think we all need to take a step back and accept the possibility that they may not be able to revive the PS3.

 

[Bungalow Bob]

How stupid is that? If a console sells extemely well, why drop the price? But if a console sells badly, who would even waste one thought about using the price drop strategy from last gen only because it worked back then? Maybe a slow moving and deadlocked mind like yours?!?

PSP

 

[jrricky]

The Wii is on track to make 10 million by September or October the latest.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I'm sorry guys, but there is only so much Sony can do. I'm not saying the PS3 will be a failure, I'm saying we need to get used to the possibility that it will fail.

It won't fail. If it sells 60 million units, that's a successful product and platform. Who cares if PS2 sold 120 million? Sales-age gamers, that's who.

 

[quetz67]

PSP

The PSP is doing fine and there is no need to prevent it from being a failure. You need to get that Highlander thinkin out of your head.

 

[Bungalow Bob]

It won't fail. If it sells 60 million units, that's a successful product and platform. Who cares if PS2 sold 120 million? Sales-age gamers, that's who.

And who says PS3´ll sell 60M units? Fools, that´s who.

 

[Jammy]

A couple months back you allowed us to request the sales for a couple of games outside of the top ten. Are you still doing this?

I'd really like to know how much the best-selling PS3 and PSP games sold, and I'm sure other people want to know how much Super Paper Mario (apparently around ~100,000) and Zelda: TP (apparently right below SPM in terms of console game sales) sold.

 

[the thoroughbred]

What did Zelda do?

 

[Beer Monkey]

The PSP is doing fine and there is no need to prevent it from being a failure.

Its doing fine as a gadget but not great as a game software platform. Needs more software sales.

 

[Gekkonidae]

It won't fail. If it sells 60 million units, that's a successful product and platform. Who cares if PS2 sold 120 million? Sales-age gamers, that's who.

I agree. If it sells 60 million units that would be a success. My point was that people are using the excuse "Sony won't let it fail" as if Sony was all powerful. I'm trying to say that we should accept the possibility that the PS3 could end up selling like the GameCube. I'm not saying it will, I'm saying we all need to acknowledge the fact that it could.

 

[Bungalow Bob]

The PSP is doing fine and there is no need to prevent it from being a failure. You need to get that Highlander thinkin out of your head.

What does a DS, Wii and 360 dominated generation have to do with highlander?

 

[Kosma]

I think that by the time it comes down to a mainstream $200, even casual gamers will think of the PS3 the way that they used to think of the GC 2 years ago.

Was the GC the cheapest next gen movie player? Don't think so.

People WILL be interested in the PS3, even if it's only as a BR player when it hits 200 in a couple of years. By then HD adoption will be huge, the PS3 will be a low priced BR player that also has a ton of cool HD games.

I don't even own a PS3 (360 owner here) but I know then when it drops in price I will have to get one for this alone. People thinking the PS3 is lost really don't see the big picture I think.

 

[mclem]

Don't think the Wii is powerful enough to run Halo.:lol Seriously

Read the post I was responding to, and think. Work on the premise that the VC may be something intended to run beyond the Wii.

 

[Bungalow Bob]

The PSP is doing fine and there is no need to prevent it from being a failure.

Haven´t seen software sales for the past year, have you?

 

[quetz67]

Haven´t seen software sales for the past year, have you?

yawn!

 

[Bungalow Bob]

Was the GC the cheapest next gen movie player? Don't think so.

People WILL be interested in the PS3, even if it's only as a BR player when it hits 200 in a couple of years. By then HD adoption will be huge, the PS3 will be a low priced BR player that also has a ton of cool HD games.

I don't even own a PS3 (360 owner here) but I know then when it drops in price I will have to get one for this alone. People thinking the PS3 is lost really don't see the big picture I think.

Ya! It´ll be just like how how all those non-gamers bought PS2 last year because it was the cheapest dvd player available in 2006.

 

[turtle553]

Was the GC the cheapest next gen movie player? Don't think so.

People WILL be interested in the PS3, even if it's only as a BR player when it hits 200 in a couple of years. By then HD adoption will be huge, the PS3 will be a low priced BR player that also has a ton of cool HD games.

By that time, there will be cheaper hybrid players on the market. How long was DVD playback a major feature to attract someone to the PS2. Maybe a year or two and by then you could get a standalone better player for half the price.

 

[Gekkonidae]

People WILL be interested in the PS3, even if it's only as a BR player when it hits 200 in a couple of years. By then HD adoption will be huge, the PS3 will be a low priced BR player that also has a ton of cool HD games.

PS3 is a low priced BR player today because Sony heavily subsidizes the hardware. This subsidy can only go on for so long. As Blue Ray drives get cheaper, prices for pure BR players will ultimately be much lower than for the PS3.

As for HD adoption being HUGE in a couple of years, that's just not how the markets trending at the moment. HD adoption seems to be growing mostly because most new TVs are HD. If you look at how many people are actually seeking out HD content, the numbers don't bode well for HD service providers. It may be that the average consumer just doesn't care about High-Def.

 

[Cooter]

I think that by the time it comes down to a mainstream $200, even casual gamers will think of the PS3 the way that they used to think of the GC 2 years ago.

You´re really underestimating just how badly Sony ****ed up this gen, while at the same time drastically overestimating the selling power of Sony´s first party games.

I have to agree with Bob on this. It has been proven time and time again that $200 is the mainstream price.

Think about when the PS3 will be at that price and things really don't look good at all. The Playstation name alone is not gonna move a 600, 500, 400 dollar system for 3 years until Sony decides to it wants to hit the casual gamer.

 

[Gekkonidae]

I have to agree with Bob on this. It has been proven time and time again that $200 is the mainstream price.

Think about when the PS3 will be at that price and things really don't look good at all. The Playstation name alone is not gonna move a 600, 500, 400 dollar system for 3 years until Sony decides to it wants to hit the casual gamer.

The question is how long will it take the PS3 to hit 200 dollars. If it takes two/three years, and the competition is way ahead of it at that point in installed base, it will probably be too late at that point for the PS3 to recover.

 

[GhaleonEB]

The question is how long will it take the PS3 to hit 200 dollars. If it takes two/three years, and the competition is way ahead of it at that point in installed base, it will probably be too late at that point for the PS3 to recover.

I think we're looking at three years as a minimum. And as you said, the relative competition will be insane at that point.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Stand alone BD players are going to get cheaper much faster than the PS3 does.

 

[Flakster99]

A couple months back you allowed us to request the sales for a couple of games outside of the top ten. Are you still doing this?

I'd really like to know how much the best-selling PS3 and PSP games sold, and I'm sure other people want to know how much Super Paper Mario (apparently around ~100,000) and Zelda: TP (apparently right below SPM in terms of console game sales) sold.

Bares repeating, an update would be kosher. I think software requests numbers have completely fallen to the way side, shame. Heck, top 5 game sales per platform with accumulated YTD/LTD wouldn't break the NDP bank, would it?

 

[SS4Rob]

In Japan, Final Fantasy XIII will secure the PS3 number 2 position, Japanese gamers aren't as into MGS as we are.

In the US, GTA4 and (ugh) Halo 3 will secure the 360 number 2 position, US gamers aren't as into Final Fantasy as we are. MGS4 will help the PS3 over here some but it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

It's all about Final Fantasy for PS3, and for the US it's simply not enough.

One more note, Japan will shut down with Dragon Quest 9 is released on the DS, and Nintendo will official own the whole island. Which is okay. In the US it is not as cut and dry, but Nintendo is definitely helping lock their number 1 position by appealing to EVERYONE, not just those of us posting in this forum The number of older men and young girls who have Wii's is staggering.

 

[Threi]

I think we're looking at three years as a minimum. And as you said, the relative competition will be insane at that point.

At that point i feel the PS3 and its software will start to sell pretty well (on par with competition until their new system is released), but IMO anyone expecting a full on BLOWOUT is reaching pretty hard.

The way i feel it will turn out is that the Wii will continue selling in the range that it is right now (probably a little less), the 360 will pick up after a price drop and start to sell near Wii amounts, and later on when PS3 drops in price the PS3 will be selling pretty much equal to Wii numbers. All 3 consoles will be selling well at the end of this gen, but because the PS3 dropped their price later than other consoles (im speculating on this), they will be behind in actual consoles sold, but not in month-by-month sales. There won't be no EXPLOSION OF SALES from any of them, and the software libraries of them will all be pretty diverse and plentiful.

I think that none of the consoles this gen deserves to "die", and none of them will really "die" at all. I hope that there is a more balanced market this time around, and not a repeat of last gen. All three consoles have unique strengths, and they should all be rewarded for their efforts with good games all around.

But of course devs, fanboys, and NeoGAF doesn't think that way so my words are probably wasted.

"PS3 IS TEH DOOM3D LOLZ"
"360 IS SHOOTER CONSOLE LOLZ"
"WII IS KILLING GAMING LOLZ"

 

[Parl]

If we are to say PS3 will sell at the same rate it currently is (I guess at 9k a week in Japan, 22k a week in NA and 20k a week in Other, making WW 51k a week), and has currently sold 3.5 million, it'll reach 60 million 19th October 2028.

Counting Nov and Dec jump as if Nov is like 2 months of sales and Dec is like 4 months of sales, it'll reach that point somewhere in June 2023.

However, PS3 will definitely win reach 60 million because Wii is a fad, Virtual Fighter 5 and Motorstorm, yet to launch in Europe, the price drop will permanently triple sales worldwide and it has some big games to wait for...