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Official August 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

TwinsDad

Member
traveler said:
Whoa, hold up- what? This is like my second or third time in a sales thread, so I dunno what the, er, customs are. (I don't see the point normally in looking at sales charts- but I want to see how well Bioshock did this time around.)

If you read the newbie section, quoting that site and using the frog site for pictures is a ban.
 
Sharp said:
(Feel free to switch around DS and Wii or PS3 and GBA. Oh also I called Madden).

I think I called Madden way earlier than you did!

My Amazon snooping paid off!

For nex' month's NPD: Lair and Heavenly Sword is gonna bomb, but HS will do better than Lair. Also, Carnival Games should surprise everyone.
 

TwinsDad

Member
titiklabingapat said:
I think I called Madden way earlier than you did!

My Amazon snooping paid off!

For nex' month's NPD: Lair and Heavenly Sword is gonna bomb, but HS will do better than Lair. Also, Carnival Games should surprise everyone.

You never know so man Sony fans hyped Lair that I think it will actually sell well despite the average reviews.

HS will sell, again for mostly the same reason. 1+ Million, maybe not, but it should sell over 250K copies.
 

AniHawk

Member
DKII said:
From vgcrapz lol!!
52384eb.jpg

"NO! Don't do it! THE PEOPLE!"
 

JDSN

Banned
Yeah. Another big month for Nintendo. Wii still outsells DS. Xbox 360 sales are up. PS3 still trailing behind by a wide margin -- about the same as last month. BioShock sales double those of Prime 3 (it released a week earlier, but still...)

Official numbers coming later...

Matty

From Matt-IGN.
 
Ohhhh, PS3 numbers holding up...but you have to realize, the price drop happened in the middle of the month whereas August has the price drop in full effect so there is definitely some sort of first week factor happening there.
 

donny2112

Member
Crap. I was counting on Wii going down this month. I was figuring that Wii was probably held back until the second half of the month with MP3's release. Oh, well.

titiklabingapat said:
but you have to realize, the price drop happened in the middle of the month

It happened at the beginning of the month by NPD reckoning.
 

angelfly

Member
JDSN said:
From Matt-IGN.

Damn Wii screwed my predictions again. I thought DS would move more systems because of the brain age bundle being added but I guess I underestimated the power of Prime 3.
 
Matt-IGN said:
PS3 still trailing behind by a wide margin -- about the same as last month.

He must mean trailing behind Wii by the same margin. There's no way they are still just ~10k behind 360, not with the 360 price cut.
 
beermonkey@tehbias said:
It is bad to fall further behind in LTD sales every single month.

I predicted this ages ago. Whenever PS3 would hit a new plateau, 360 would crank up their boom box from higher up the mountain, cause an avalanche, and bury them again.

I might have used a different metaphor, though.
 
Man, NPD is so fucking UNINTERESTING nowadays. Why the hell should I give a shit if I don't see how much Persona 3 sold for example?

Bleh, I'll have a look at hw figures before going to sleep. I hope that when I wake up I can see something else than those figures and madden figures. Nope, I'm not sleeping more than 8 hours if you are wondering about it...
 
If Two Worlds actually does end up in the top ten that really proves that the 360 is ripe for western RPG's. Somebody beside Betheseda and Bioware needs to take notice.
 

AniHawk

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Man, NPD is so fucking UNINTERESTING nowadays. Why the hell should I give a shit if I don't see how much Persona 3 sold for example?

Bleh, I'll have a look at hw figures before going to sleep. I hope that when I wake up I can see something else than those figures and madden figures. Nope, I'm not sleeping more than 8 hours if you are wondering about it...

It'll be great tonight. There's going to be a Metroid Prime 3/Bioshock showdown for the ages. Just you watch.
 

Elios83

Member
artredis1980 said:
PS3 releases: Warhawk, Lair, Heavenly Sword <---- based on hype of those, its slightly weak


Lair and HS were not out in August.
Warhawk was released on the 28.
The only big game PS3 had in August was Madden and it was widely publicized as the inferior version.
 

TwinsDad

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Man, NPD is so fucking UNINTERESTING nowadays. Why the hell should I give a shit if I don't see how much Persona 3 sold for example?

Bleh, I'll have a look at hw figures before going to sleep. I hope that when I wake up I can see something else than those figures and madden figures. Nope, I'm not sleeping more than 8 hours if you are wondering about it...

I'd also love to know how many copies of Persona 3 were sold too.

Oh well I guess we can only take what we get.
 

tanod

when is my burrito
titiklabingapat said:
Ohhhh, PS3 numbers holding up...but you have to realize, the price drop happened in the middle of the month whereas August has the price drop in full effect so there is definitely some sort of first week factor happening there.

itsatrap.gif

Both the 360 and PS3 price drops happened within 3 days of the start of the NPD month.
 
Did you really cut off the predictions at 4 pm ET exactly??? Pretty lame, especially for those of us who were only a couple of minutes late and ESPECIALLY since there were no Canadian numbers released.

Human rational thinking >>> hard deadlines

I'm just annoyed because I had my best month yet in this meaningless contest!
 
dammitmattt said:
Did you really cut off the predictions at 4 pm ET exactly??? Pretty lame, especially for those of us who were only a couple of minutes late and ESPECIALLY since there were no Canadian numbers released.

That's when the program was set to download this thread, and it did. I'll post the results when I get back from work.
 

donny2112

Member
Cheesemeister said:
That's when the program was set to download this thread, and it did. I'll post the results when I get back from work.

Something went wrong. The parser has me predicting 240K for the PS2 and 400K for the 360. From page 4,

donny2112 said:
[NDS] 440K
[WII] 360K
[360] 289K
[PS2] 175K
[PSP] 160K
[PS3] 112K
[GBA] 72K

Software:

I'm 291.5K off by the parser but only 169.5K off in my prediction. Maybe it picked up posts by me where I mentioned PS2 or 360 but wasn't using the parser formatting?

Edit:
P.S. I was dead wrong on PS2 outselling 360 Madden in August. I have a few feathers in my mouth, now. ;)

Edit2:
Software Prediction Results:

Code:
Username        units  order    total
Ganondorf>Link  77.36     88   165.36
Alkaliine       61.96     70   131.96
donny2112       57.12     64   121.12
AlteredBeast    51.59     62   113.59

Congratulations, Ganondorf>Link!
 
[NDS] 430,000 - 46.4
[Wii] 400,000 - 3.6
[360] 255,000 - 21.6
[PS2] 235,000 - 33
[PSP] 200,000 - 48.8
[PS3] 135,000 - 4.4
[GBA] 76,000 - 6.5

Off by 164.3k. PSP/DS argh :/

After seeing my predictions again I don't have a clue why I thought PS2 would do that good numbers btw.
 

Odysseus

Banned
Odysseus said:
[nds] 420k
[wii] 400k
[psp] 215k
[ps2] 210k
[360] 300k
[ps3] 130k
[gba] 80k

guh. off by 146.5k.

chief offenders being psp (~64k), ds (~37K), 360 (~23k), and gba (~11k). my own fault on the psp, with the revision coming.
 
I WANT MY NPD RESULTS.

I deliver the sales information on time, on date, and with some extras thrown in. I need to know where I stand...

I think we'll see some folks with less than 30-40k discrepancies, but what matters is how I did relative the folks higher in the rankings than I.

:D
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
[Wii] 400K
[DS] 380K
[360] 270K
[PS2] 200K
[PSP] 170K
[PS3] 120K
[GBA] 75K
[GCN] 8K

Oh snap... this has got to be one of my best months. As a sum of differences I'm off by 50.5K; the one most off being PSP which I overestimated by 18.8K. For three systems I was within 5K, and another two were within 10K.
 
Number of contestants: 231

PS2 - Agg. = 207,655; Expected Range = 130,000 to 280,000
PSP - Agg. = 185,764; Expected Range = 110,000 to 245,000
PS3 - Agg. = 132,727; Expected Range = 85,000 to 195,000
360 - Agg. = 241,593; Expected Range = 145,000 to 350,000
GBA - Agg. = 78,019; Expected Range = 45,000 to 106,000
NDS - Agg. = 410,935; Expected Range = 340,000 to 510,000
WII - Agg. = 402,954; Expected Range = 300,000 to 500,000

NPD said:
Hardware Unit Sales
PlayStation 2 202K
PlayStation 3 130.6K
PlayStation Portable 151.2 K
Xbox 360 276.7K
Wii 403.6 K
Nintendo DS 383.3K
GBA 69.5K

1. cvxfreak - 49,500
2. JoshuaJSlone - 50,500
2. toxk_02 - 50,500
4. D3VI0US - 52,900
5. Psychotext - 55,500
6. Agent Icebeezy - 66,300
7. Threi - 67,300
8. TheKurgan - 77,100
9. rostocker - 77,700
10. Gwanatu T - 78,900
11. beermonkey@tehbias - 79,700
12. Malleymal - 81,500
13. jepense - 83,900
14. Vagabundo - 85,100
15. Clever Pun - 88,900
16. tinderbox - 89,300
17. blitz64 - 90,500
18. Sarenai - 93,100
19. sionyboy - 95,700
20. Brakara - 97,700
21. Billias - 100,500
22. Region-FreeWii - 101,700
23. Jokeropia - 104,900
24. Jiggy37 - 107,900
25. pswii60 - 108,300
26. sonycowboy - 108,500
27. DaSamba - 111,500
28. jd196 - 113,900
29. GAF Aggregate - 114,253
30. Eric WK - 114,900
30. Kurosaki Ichigo - 114,900
32. Restricted_Area - 115,300
33. Sviatoslav - 115,500
34. titiklabingapat - 116,300
35. GameGamer - 117,300
36. GC|Simon - 117,700
37. AdventureRacing - 118,700
38. Parl - 119,300
39. Hyllian - 119,900
40. RevoDS - 120,100
41. Segata Sanshiro - 120,500
42. John Dunbar - 122,700
43. Linkup - 123,700
44. itschris - 124,300
45. Hammer24 - 124,900
46. JCBossman - 127,900
46. RiskyChris - 127,900
48. cashman - 128,500
49. lochnesssnowman - 128,700
50. Thunder Monkey - 129,300
51. AniHawk - 130,300
51. RPS37 - 130,300
53. moku - 130,305
54. apujanata - 130,500
55. GhaleonEB - 131,700
56. ComputerNerd - 132,300
56. kinggroin - 132,300
56. Tobor - 132,300
59. argon - 132,700
60. Orgen - 133,900
61. devilscallmedad - 134,900
62. Heidir - 137,500
63. duderon - 138,300
64. Lobster - 139,100
65. DeaconKnowledge - 139,900
66. duk - 141,500
67. BuzzJive - 141,700
68. legend166 - 141,900
69. Porkepik - 142,700
70. lollerskates - 144,300
71. E-phonk - 145,900
72. Odysseus - 146,500
73. B_Rik_Schitthaus - 148,700
73. starship - 148,700
75. schuelma - 148,900
75. underfooter - 148,900
75. Haunted One - 148,900
78. Armada - 149,900
79. Rinent - 151,100
80. Weisheit - 152,500
81. Frillen - 153,100
82. Aristotlekh - 153,700
83. Dire - 154,900
84. Pope Benedict XVI - 158,700
85. Raist - 158,900
86. felipeko - 160,700
87. TunaLover - 161,500
87. Stop It - 161,500
89. jey_16 - 162,700
90. USD - 163,700
90. Branduil - 163,700
92. 3rdman - 163,900
92. kkg1701 - 163,900
94. Frankfurter - 164,700
95. dawnXjustice - 164,900
96. Bowen_B - 165,500
96. Earthstrike - 165,500
98. stalker - 166,900
99. botticus - 167,700
100. Jewbacca - 167,900
101. RattleHead_ - 168,700
101. SPEA - 168,700
103. Omikaru - 168,900
104. MirageDwarf - 169,300
104. DayShallCome - 169,300
106. donny2112 - 169,500
106. gollumsluvslave - 169,500
108. Mariah Carey - 169,900
108. SuperBanjo - 169,900
110. JavyOO7 - 171,500
111. SIP YEK NOD - 172,700
112. laserbeam - 173,500
113. corez - 175,100
114. Pachter - 176,500
115. Gahiggidy - 176,502
116. citrus lump - 176,900
117. rage1973 - 177,700
118. Michan - 178,500
119. Ataru83 - 178,700
120. frankthurk - 178,900
121. RBH - 179,900
122. Spiegel - 181,700
123. Pai Pai Master - 182,700
124. Mojo - 183,700
125. The M.O.B - 184,500
126. JJConrad - 185,300
127. Captain Pants - 185,500
128. Xekrn - 185,700
129. Taurus - 186,500
130. rikitikitik - 186,700
131. squicken - 187,900
131. kefka2030 - 187,900
133. Culex - 190,700
133. Hus - 190,700
135. muramura - 191,300
136. TwinsDad - 191,500
136. Ydahs - 191,500
138. Alkaliine - 192,700
139. oo Kosma oo - 192,900
140. Wes - 193,700
141. Flakster99 - 195,500
142. gregor7777 - 195,700
143. RubberJohnny - 196,700
143. stolin - 196,700
145. Drensch - 196,900
146. Gaborn - 198,100
147. DSWii60 - 198,500
148. Dave Long - 198,900
149. TwinIonEngines - 201,700
150. TheGreatDave - 201,900
151. ShockingAlberto - 202,300
152. Leezard - 202,900
153. Krowley - 203,900
154. Provider - 204,100
155. Anerythristic - 205,100
156. apotema - 205,500
157. Shpeshal Ed - 205,700
158. Livin_Lovin - 206,500
159. Mithos Yggdrasill - 207,700
160. Halvie - 207,900
161. segarr - 208,700
161. Jocchan - 208,700
163. Mr. Pointy - 210,500
164. Cooter - 210,700
165. jamesinclair - 211,500
166. Crowza - 212,700
167. Linkhero1 - 213,500
168. fanduck - 213,700
169. FIREBABY - 220,100
170. Rancid Mildew - 220,700
171. Markster - 223,366
172. Knastluder - 224,700
173. Freki - 226,500
174. PistolGrip - 228,700
175. turtle553 - 229,500
176. Ganondorf&gt;Link - 231,500
177. dyls - 232,700
178. STG! - 233,900
179. flipping_heck - 235,500
180. DuMaurier - 236,700
181. HylianTom - 236,701
182. angelfly - 238,100
183. EBCubs03 - 240,500
184. Plinko - 242,900
185. Dalauz - 246,700
186. PhoenixDark - 252,700
187. Francois the Great - 257,700
188. Sir Fragula - 257,900
189. Darkman M - 259,100
190. Colonel Mustard - 259,500
191. Bildi - 261,500
192. Ch Totoro - 266,500
193. F#A#Oo - 266,700
194. VanMardigan - 271,900
195. Alcander - 272,100
196. Milabrega - 272,500
197. Xisiqomelir - 274,500
198. doicare - 276,500
199. Patton - 276,700
200. iceatcs - 278,300
201. dextran - 279,500
202. Blablurn - 280,100
203. grandjedi6 - 282,500
204. Sho_Nuff82 - 288,100
205. evlcookie - 290,500
206. rs7k - 294,500
207. Amarnath - 296,700
208. d[-_-]b - 304,100
209. R-User! - 306,500
210. bubble breaker - 313,913
211. djtiesto - 321,500
212. perfectchaos007 - 325,900
213. MasterMFauli - 327,300
214. RamzaIsCool - 327,700
215. Jube3 - 332,700
216. MobiusPigeon - 338,100
217. Metalmurphy - 344,500
218. Visualante - 347,100
219. kassatsu - 348,500
220. AzureNightmareXE - 357,700
221. Belgorim - 359,300
222. [Nintex] - 396,700
222. CassSept - 396,700
224. AlternativeUlster - 411,485
225. Cruceh - 416,500
226. Rekwest - 438,300
227. Joni - 578,100
228. jett - 760,700
229. typhonsentra - 790,500
230. chemicals - 926,900
231. vanguardian1 - 1,250,300
 
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