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Official August 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

toxk_02

Black Republican
Tied for 2nd!!
[WII] 410k -- 6.4k off
[NDS] 398k -- 14.7k off
[360] 276k -- .7k off
[PS2] 184k -- 18k off
[PSP] 161k -- 9.2k off
[PS3] 131k -- .4k off
[GBA] 69k --.5k off
Nailed the 360, PS3, and GBA. Lowballed the PS2 :( I should never count it out.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
Fucking great. He modified each of my predictions by 1000, and ended up with 1 more in the right direction than the wrong direction. :lol


If that's true, he's going to be penalized. -200k points for the year. 100k points for the month!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Reposting for the new page...

Number of contestants: 231

PS2 - Agg. = 207,655; Expected Range = 130,000 to 280,000
PSP - Agg. = 185,764; Expected Range = 110,000 to 245,000
PS3 - Agg. = 132,727; Expected Range = 85,000 to 195,000
360 - Agg. = 241,593; Expected Range = 145,000 to 350,000
GBA - Agg. = 78,019; Expected Range = 45,000 to 106,000
NDS - Agg. = 410,935; Expected Range = 340,000 to 510,000
WII - Agg. = 402,954; Expected Range = 300,000 to 500,000

NPD said:
Hardware Unit Sales
PlayStation 2 202K
PlayStation 3 130.6K
PlayStation Portable 151.2 K
Xbox 360 276.7K
Wii 403.6 K
Nintendo DS 383.3K
GBA 69.5K

1. cvxfreak - 49,500
2. JoshuaJSlone - 50,500
2. toxk_02 - 50,500
4. D3VI0US - 52,900
5. Psychotext - 55,500
6. Agent Icebeezy - 66,300
7. Threi - 67,300
8. TheKurgan - 77,100
9. rostocker - 77,700
10. Gwanatu T - 78,900
11. beermonkey@tehbias - 79,700
12. Malleymal - 81,500
13. jepense - 83,900
14. Vagabundo - 85,100
15. Clever Pun - 88,900
16. tinderbox - 89,300
17. blitz64 - 90,500
18. Sarenai - 93,100
19. sionyboy - 95,700
20. Brakara - 97,700
21. Billias - 100,500
22. Region-FreeWii - 101,700
23. Jokeropia - 104,900
24. Jiggy37 - 107,900
25. pswii60 - 108,300
26. sonycowboy - 108,500
27. DaSamba - 111,500
28. jd196 - 113,900
29. GAF Aggregate - 114,253
30. Eric WK - 114,900
30. Kurosaki Ichigo - 114,900
32. Restricted_Area - 115,300
33. Sviatoslav - 115,500
34. titiklabingapat - 116,300
35. GameGamer - 117,300
36. GC|Simon - 117,700
37. AdventureRacing - 118,700
38. Parl - 119,300
39. Hyllian - 119,900
40. RevoDS - 120,100
41. Segata Sanshiro - 120,500
42. John Dunbar - 122,700
43. Linkup - 123,700
44. itschris - 124,300
45. Hammer24 - 124,900
46. JCBossman - 127,900
46. RiskyChris - 127,900
48. cashman - 128,500
49. lochnesssnowman - 128,700
50. Thunder Monkey - 129,300
51. AniHawk - 130,300
51. RPS37 - 130,300
53. moku - 130,305
54. apujanata - 130,500
55. GhaleonEB - 131,700
56. ComputerNerd - 132,300
56. kinggroin - 132,300
56. Tobor - 132,300
59. argon - 132,700
60. Orgen - 133,900
61. devilscallmedad - 134,900
62. Heidir - 137,500
63. duderon - 138,300
64. Lobster - 139,100
65. DeaconKnowledge - 139,900
66. duk - 141,500
67. BuzzJive - 141,700
68. legend166 - 141,900
69. Porkepik - 142,700
70. lollerskates - 144,300
71. E-phonk - 145,900
72. Odysseus - 146,500
73. B_Rik_Schitthaus - 148,700
73. starship - 148,700
75. schuelma - 148,900
75. underfooter - 148,900
75. Haunted One - 148,900
78. Armada - 149,900
79. Rinent - 151,100
80. Weisheit - 152,500
81. Frillen - 153,100
82. Aristotlekh - 153,700
83. Dire - 154,900
84. Pope Benedict XVI - 158,700
85. Raist - 158,900
86. felipeko - 160,700
87. TunaLover - 161,500
87. Stop It - 161,500
89. jey_16 - 162,700
90. USD - 163,700
90. Branduil - 163,700
92. 3rdman - 163,900
92. kkg1701 - 163,900
94. Frankfurter - 164,700
95. dawnXjustice - 164,900
96. Bowen_B - 165,500
96. Earthstrike - 165,500
98. stalker - 166,900
99. botticus - 167,700
100. Jewbacca - 167,900
101. RattleHead_ - 168,700
101. SPEA - 168,700
103. Omikaru - 168,900
104. MirageDwarf - 169,300
104. DayShallCome - 169,300
106. donny2112 - 169,500
106. gollumsluvslave - 169,500
108. Mariah Carey - 169,900
108. SuperBanjo - 169,900
110. JavyOO7 - 171,500
111. SIP YEK NOD - 172,700
112. laserbeam - 173,500
113. corez - 175,100
114. Pachter - 176,500
115. Gahiggidy - 176,502
116. citrus lump - 176,900
117. rage1973 - 177,700
118. Michan - 178,500
119. Ataru83 - 178,700
120. frankthurk - 178,900
121. RBH - 179,900
122. Spiegel - 181,700
123. Pai Pai Master - 182,700
124. Mojo - 183,700
125. The M.O.B - 184,500
126. JJConrad - 185,300
127. Captain Pants - 185,500
128. Xekrn - 185,700
129. Taurus - 186,500
130. rikitikitik - 186,700
131. squicken - 187,900
131. kefka2030 - 187,900
133. Culex - 190,700
133. Hus - 190,700
135. muramura - 191,300
136. TwinsDad - 191,500
136. Ydahs - 191,500
138. Alkaliine - 192,700
139. oo Kosma oo - 192,900
140. Wes - 193,700
141. Flakster99 - 195,500
142. gregor7777 - 195,700
143. RubberJohnny - 196,700
143. stolin - 196,700
145. Drensch - 196,900
146. Gaborn - 198,100
147. DSWii60 - 198,500
148. Dave Long - 198,900
149. TwinIonEngines - 201,700
150. TheGreatDave - 201,900
151. ShockingAlberto - 202,300
152. Leezard - 202,900
153. Krowley - 203,900
154. Provider - 204,100
155. Anerythristic - 205,100
156. apotema - 205,500
157. Shpeshal Ed - 205,700
158. Livin_Lovin - 206,500
159. Mithos Yggdrasill - 207,700
160. Halvie - 207,900
161. segarr - 208,700
161. Jocchan - 208,700
163. Mr. Pointy - 210,500
164. Cooter - 210,700
165. jamesinclair - 211,500
166. Crowza - 212,700
167. Linkhero1 - 213,500
168. fanduck - 213,700
169. FIREBABY - 220,100
170. Rancid Mildew - 220,700
171. Markster - 223,366
172. Knastluder - 224,700
173. Freki - 226,500
174. PistolGrip - 228,700
175. turtle553 - 229,500
176. Ganondorf>Link - 231,500
177. dyls - 232,700
178. STG! - 233,900
179. flipping_heck - 235,500
180. DuMaurier - 236,700
181. HylianTom - 236,701
182. angelfly - 238,100
183. EBCubs03 - 240,500
184. Plinko - 242,900
185. Dalauz - 246,700
186. PhoenixDark - 252,700
187. Francois the Great - 257,700
188. Sir Fragula - 257,900
189. Darkman M - 259,100
190. Colonel Mustard - 259,500
191. Bildi - 261,500
192. Ch Totoro - 266,500
193. F#A#Oo - 266,700
194. VanMardigan - 271,900
195. Alcander - 272,100
196. Milabrega - 272,500
197. Xisiqomelir - 274,500
198. doicare - 276,500
199. Patton - 276,700
200. iceatcs - 278,300
201. dextran - 279,500
202. Blablurn - 280,100
203. grandjedi6 - 282,500
204. Sho_Nuff82 - 288,100
205. evlcookie - 290,500
206. rs7k - 294,500
207. Amarnath - 296,700
208. d[-_-]b - 304,100
209. R-User! - 306,500
210. bubble breaker - 313,913
211. djtiesto - 321,500
212. perfectchaos007 - 325,900
213. MasterMFauli - 327,300
214. RamzaIsCool - 327,700
215. Jube3 - 332,700
216. MobiusPigeon - 338,100
217. Metalmurphy - 344,500
218. Visualante - 347,100
219. kassatsu - 348,500
220. AzureNightmareXE - 357,700
221. Belgorim - 359,300
222. [Nintex] - 396,700
222. CassSept - 396,700
224. AlternativeUlster - 411,485
225. Cruceh - 416,500
226. Rekwest - 438,300
227. Joni - 578,100
228. jett - 760,700
229. typhonsentra - 790,500
230. chemicals - 926,900
231. vanguardian1 - 1,250,300
 

Malleymal

You now belong to FMT.
Cheesemeister said:
Number of contestants: 231


12. Malleymal - 81,500


I dont understand the point systems, but for my first time ever.. I am impressed... thats fun.. cant wait for the next one now
 

Mrbob

Member
Wow close at the top, cvxfreak edges out a victory.

I forgot about this event and will have to wait till next month. :/
 

Odysseus

Banned
Malleymal said:
I dont understand the point systems, but for my first time ever.. I am impressed... thats fun.. cant wait for the next one now

sum of absolute differences. -10k one way, +10k another, off by 20k overall.
 

Jiggy

Member
24. Jiggy37 - 107,900


Wow. I was only jumping in so I could earn a "better than Pachter" position, but I'll happily take "Top 25." >_> Especially for a first time!
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
How come my results didn't come up in the 231 results page?

:(

BTW, donny, what do those software results mean? Apparently I really suck...

I did much much better than the GAF Aggregate, after doing a quick count. :( Damn parser, always screwing the black man!
 

vanguardian1

poor, homeless and tasteless
Would our cheezy lord explain what I did wrong to deserve that?

I was off by 174k total, not 1.25 million :p

(underscored the 360, forgot about the psp-lite release)
 
vanguardian1 said:
Would our cheezy lord explain what I did wrong to deserve that?

I was off by 174k total, not 1.25 million :p

(underscored the 360, forgot about the psp-lite release)

vanguardian1 said:
I might as well give it a shot. :) *bang*

DS - 400k
Wii - 400k
360 - 225k
PSP - 225k
PS2 - 225k
PS3 - 150k
GBA - 75k

You didn't follow the parser format. Posts that don't conform aren't guaranteed to get picked up. It got your DS prediction of 400k.
 
speculawyer said:
I know I'm late for the official game, but here are my guesstimates:

[WII] 400k ****All bow down to the almighty Wii
[NDS] 380k ****The real new gen victor
[360] 250k ****Bump from price drop, Bioshock, and Halo 3 soon to be.
[PS2] 190k *****Die already!
[PSP] 195k ****Too bad PSP software doesn't do nearly as well. :-(
[PS3] 130k **** Biting my tongue to prevent more bannage.
[GBA] 80k ****Down goes GBA, DOWN GOES GBA!
[NGC] 6K *****Probably more are being sold used these days.
[XBX] 3 ****Not even Steve Balmer cares.

I was too late but I did pretty darn good . . . totally nailed the Wii, NDS, and PS3. Bigger jump for the 360 than I thought for the small price drop.

Official results
Hardware Unit Sales
PlayStation 2 202K
PlayStation 3 130.6K
PlayStation Portable 151.2 K
Xbox 360 276.7K
Wii 403.6 K
Nintendo DS 383.3K
GBA 69.5K
 

Gahiggidy

My aunt & uncle run a Mom & Pop store, "The Gamecube Hut", and sold 80k WiiU within minutes of opening.
Cheesemeister said:
Number of contestants: 231

....

1. cvxfreak - 49,500

...

114. Pachter - 176,500
115. Gahiggidy - 176,502
....
Dammit! That guy beat me! By 2 POINTS. I'll need to try harder next time.

-- edit. How about for next round we play by "Price is Right" rules?
 

apujanata

Member
54. apujanata - 130,500

I was killed by my X360 estimate (too low by 56.7K), PSP (too high by 18.8K), and GBA (too high by 11.5K). The rest is pretty close. :)

Donny,
will I get the rank/order bonus ? I predicted the right rank/ order :
Wii > DS > X360 >PS2 > PSP > PS3 > GBA
 

BboyDubC

Member
With the aggregate being a darn good predictor, think we can get it before NPD so that we have an idea of what the figures will be for the month? GAF is darn freakin good.
 

Fularu

Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
Fucking great. He modified each of my predictions by 1000, and ended up with 1 more in the right direction than the wrong direction. :lol

My prediction wasn't taken and I was only off by 45k in total systems sold :( damn work meeting making me 20 minutes late
 

ikkibeddu

Member
can't find my name O_O

is there a reason my predictions are not considered?

post #278

[NDS] - 395,000 383 -12
[WII] - 415,000 403 +12
[PSP] - 180,000 151 +30
[PS3] - 120,000 130 +10
[PS2] - 180,000 202 -20
[360] - 275,000 276 -1
[GBA] - 80,000 69 -11
 

apujanata

Member
ikkibeddu said:
can't find my name O_O

is there a reason my predictions are not considered?

post #278

[NDS] - 395,000 383 -12
[WII] - 415,000 403 +12
[PSP] - 180,000 151 +30
[PS3] - 120,000 130 +10
[PS2] - 180,000 202 -20
[360] - 275,000 276 -1
[GBA] - 80,000 69 -11

I believe the problem is with the - sign you put in front of the actual number, which mean that you are predicting minus sales for the system. I remember that Cheesemeister has warned people that posted minus numbers.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
yeah, mine neither. My predictions were on the first page for goodness sakes!

EDIT - (read post above)

That's what my problem was!! It was my first time and an honest mistake. :p

[360] - 260k -10
[NDS] - 390k +4
[WII] - 360k -43
[PS3] - 125k -5
[PS2] - 205k +3
[PSP] - 200k +49
[GBA] - 85k +16

Guess I didn't do amazingly well... :(
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Cheesemeister said:
Yeah, don't use dashes, people. It's not a hard format to follow, FFS.

This was my first time and nobody had instructed me otherwise...wouldn't be a hard thing to include in the prediction thread OP, would it?
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
its probably a good thing i didn't try to guess at all since i woulda been really off the mark had i actually predicted
 
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