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[ethelred]

I brought it up ey?

You brought up the importance of Sony and Square Enix on the PS2, yes. I brought up Nintendo itself winding down support on the DS -- you yourself said, and I quote, that they are "the primary driver of DS sales." So you think they're the primary driver and that having a vastly abbreviated support window won't impact future sales? I respectfully disagree.

The DS is selling nearly 600k in February, does it matter who supports it when Nintendo's software is more then enough to drive such high sales?

If Nintendo is cutting support, then yes, it matters -- and if Nintendo's software is enough to drive such high sales, then of course it will have an impact if they only have an abbreviated window of support. Can you stick to a coherent argument?

You assume the DS needs boat loads of hardcore games like the PS2 to continue to sell when in fact it doesn't, it's the casual games that sells the console.

The PS2 sold off of plenty of casual software to the casual audience, too. What do you think of Madden and Guitar Hero's success for the machine? Look, I thought when the Wii took over, everyone said that it was appealing to the same bloc of casuals that made the PS2 a success. Which is it? Hardcores or casuals (or both, since this is a stupidly false dichotomy and strong software support in general, across the board, is a significant factor in driving hardware)?

When the DS stops selling on the back off the software that's already released then you can say it won't achieve PS2 numbers, but this isn't the case and there's nothing to suggest it's going to happen any time soon.

The PS2 acquired a large, healthy library, and if you picked its hardware sales at any given month during its reign, in all likelihood at that time much of its sales would've been due to software already released, too. The DS isn't doing anything differently in that regard. The point is, the releases kept coming. And even now, after they've mostly stopped, the hardware is still selling on that back library. That'll happen for the DS, too -- it'll continue selling even after all software is cut off. But if software is cut off sooner, it'll reach that hardware death point sooner than the PS2 too.

 

[_Alkaline_]

Does anybody have any NMH numbers?

37K this month, over 100K LTD.

 

[Shig]

Wii is the dominant system this gen, 360 and PS3 have no chance of stopping this and will continue to fight for second place similar to GC/Xbox for the rest of their time on the market.

Even though the Wii's selling gangbusters, it's never ever going to achieve the crazy 80-20 split the PS2 did against its competition. And I don't really remember GC or Xbox software sales stomping all over PS2 ones last gen like 360 is doing to Wii. Hardware sales are typically secondary to software sales as the most important profit driver.

But then I guess the whole 'razors and razorblades' model might not shake out the same way if your razor sales turn a good profit in the first place.

PS3's razorblade sales may be lacking as far as games go, but they also have blu-ray to pick up the slack, and that market is growing very well.

All the systems are pretty well on track to come out smelling like roses from this gen. Hardware sales alone aren't nearly as transparent an indicator of each company's standings as they've historically been; There won't be any real losers this gen.

 

[beerbelly]

10 PS3 million sellers.

35 360 million sellers.

20 Wii million sellers.

 

[Kestastrophe]

10 PS3 million sellers.

35 360 million sellers.

20 Wii million sellers.

What's the sauce?

 

[AnimeTheme]

Hardware sales alone aren't nearly as transparent an indicator of each company's standings as they've historically been

True enough. Maybe Wii is already quite a clear winner this gen in terms of hardware sales, but the competition is still severe in software sales, ESPECIALLY third party supports.

 

[Magicpaint]

I'm sure piracy is a factor on DS, but it did sell the largest amount of games in Feb on any system, so its sw sales are really good:
http://press.nintendo.com/articles.jsp?id=14794

So...wait, the DS sold more software this month than even the Xbox 360? That's really impressive for a handheld, and shows that the Top 10 doesn't give a clear enough picture about the software situation (which is why NPD threads have become a bit less interesting since we stopped getting the full thing). It seems Wii software sold really well, too.

 

[BishopLamont]

You brought up the importance of Sony and Square Enix on the PS2, yes. I brought up Nintendo itself winding down support on the DS -- you yourself said, and I quote, that they are "the primary driver of DS sales." So you think they're the primary driver and that having a vastly abbreviated support window won't impact future sales? I respectfully disagree.



If Nintendo is cutting support, then yes, it matters -- and if Nintendo's software is enough to drive such high sales, then of course it will have an impact if they only have an abbreviated window of support. Can you stick to a coherent argument?



The PS2 sold off of plenty of casual software to the casual audience, too. What do you think of Madden and Guitar Hero's success for the machine? Look, I thought when the Wii took over, everyone said that it was appealing to the same bloc of casuals that made the PS2 a success. Which is it? Hardcores or casuals (or both, since this is a stupidly false dichotomy and strong software support in general, across the board, is a significant factor in driving hardware)?



The PS2 acquired a large, healthy library, and if you picked its hardware sales at any given month during its reign, in all likelihood at that time much of its sales would've been due to software already released, too. The DS isn't doing anything differently in that regard. The point is, the releases kept coming. And even now, after they've mostly stopped, the hardware is still selling on that back library. That'll happen for the DS, too -- it'll continue selling even after all software is cut off. But if software is cut off sooner, it'll reach that hardware death point sooner than the PS2 too.

Look this whole argument boils down to you saying support is going to end quicker for the DS based on the lack of announcements, which I think is wrong because the system is still selling on the back of software already released, when sales slow down because these games don't drive sales anymore, I don't see how Nintendo won't release more games to drive sales. The big difference with the PS2 is that it relied on mostly third party, while DS relies on first party. Third party support for DS is not slowing down, really in the US did it ever have any major third party support? Support for it can only go up here on out. To top it off the DS only took off like 3 years ago in the US? The big games (Nintendogs,NSMB,BT) are still selling, in due time it's sequels or new non games, hardcore games from Nintendo will come. This is just the beginning.

Yes I know you're not outright saying the DS won't get anymore big support, it's not the fact that support has slowed down that's concerning, it's just that these new big games aren't needed at the moment.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

True enough. Maybe Wii is already quite a clear winner this gen in terms of hardware sales, but the competition is still severe in software sales, ESPECIALLY third party supports.

I think DMC4's relative bombing is going to deter alot of third parties away from development.

 

[kswiston]

I wanted to point out a couple of things:

1) the 7.2 attachment ratio for 360 is the LTD attachment, NOT Feb Attachment. It doesn't make sense otherwise. As was previously pointed out, if the monthly attach rate was indeed 7.2, you'd have approx 1.9 million units sold. Based on Microsoft's press release, that means the average unit price was $100. Think about that. The only two games retailing for $100 or more are Guitar Hero III and Rock band. Both sold 150k at MOST (probably less).

If both GHIII and Rock Band sold 150k a piece, all other games minus those two averaged $60 a unit, AND the 7.2 monthly attach rate for 360 was correct, you'd get the following.

1.6M units selling at $60 = $96M
150k units selling at $100 = $15M
150k units selling at $170 = $25.5M

The average unit cost per 360 software in this 1.9M units of software sold scenario would be $72, and total $ sales for 360 software in Feb would be $136M. Well under the value reported by Microsoft.

It's pretty clear from this that 7.2 is the LTD attach ratio, and that Feb's ratio was probably somewhere north of 10.

2) GBA was outpacing the PS2 for a couple years worldwide was it not? However, in the end the GBA ended up shipping 80-85M units compared to the PS2's eventual 135M-150M. The DS is currently at ~65M. Whether it tops out at 100M (which I think is a bare minimum at this point) or 150M is going to depend heavily on how long software support lasts (going strong at the moment), and how long Nintendo waits to release the DSs successor.

The DS needs to sell at sales rates similar to its current rate for the next 3 years to be absolutely sure of its victory over the PS2's World Wide LTD sales. That may very well happen, but I don't think its guarenteed at this point.

 

[ethelred]

Look this whole argument boils down to you saying support is going to end quicker for the DS based on the lack of announcements...

The lack of announcements and Nintendo's own stated shifting of resources away from the DS and towards the Wii.

... which I think is wrong because the system is still selling on the back of software already released, when sales slow down because these games don't drive sales anymore, I don't see how Nintendo won't release more games to drive sales.

Because it takes more than a month to greenlight a game, develop it, and then get it into stores. Look, stuff like Zelda, Pokemon, and NSMB have been major hardware pushers in the US -- they didn't just come out in a five minute timespan. If Nintendo is cutting off strong software development now, that will begin to show its impact a year from now when the hardware begins to drop because of the slowed stream of releases. And if Nintendo just decides at that point in time "Oh, time to release more games to drive sales," the train's already left the station.

Take a look at Japan if you're confused as to how this process works.

The big games (Nintendogs,NSMB,BT) are still selling, in due time it's sequels or new non games, hardcore games from Nintendo will come.

Not if Nintendo isn't making any more of those big games for release.

Think whatever you like. You seem to be of the belief that Nintendo is not only the primary driver of sales (which is true) but that them pulling software support won't have an appreciable impact on hardware sales in the future (which is false) and that because Nintendo's games sell well and for an extended period of time, they'll sell indefinitely (also false).

The PS2 built its success on appealing to a wide spectrum of gamers. So, too, has the DS. The PS2 did that by providing six years of software; it's looking like the DS may end up with a solid four. If you combine that with its incredible sluggishness in the US for its first year and a half (when its sales were downright dismal) it's hard to see how that won't have an impact on its potential to sell hardware. Put simply I see very little chance of it selling more than the PS2 unless strong software support continues (and yes, this means Nintendo delivering major stuff like they were in 2006 and 2007) and that doesn't seem to be in the cards.

Time will tell which of us is right (hint: it's me).

 

[Shig]

I think DMC4's relative bombing is going to deter alot of third parties away from development.

WHUT.

2nd highest software sales on month of release = bomb?

Sigh, only on GAF.

 

[charlequin]

Give it a few more months. Electronics are a luxury that will be hit hard.

I'm not so sure, actually. Videogames tend to be more towards the recession-resistant end of industries specifically because they're a low-end entertainment item. While new next-gen systems are expensive, PS2s/DSes/PSPs and handheld titles (or Greatest Hits-style discounted games) provide relatively cheap entertainment (because, really, spending $30 on a copy of Hot Shots Golf isn't going to make a difference whether your mortgage gets paid or not.)

I mean, if things get bad enough we'll see a correction, definitely, but my suspicion is that games are similar to movies in the degree to which their performance isn't really dictated by the broader economy.

 

[AnimeTheme]

I think DMC4's relative bombing is going to deter alot of third parties away from development.

Bombing? I don't know how the last DMC did in the US, but DMC4 already sold 530k (XB360 + PS3) in the opening month. In Japan, the PS3 version alone already exceeded the LTD of the last installment on PS2.

 

[JavyOO7]

We have a winner.

Though given that lots of companies (including Nintendo and Square Enix) seem to be in the process of winding down DS software support, I wouldn't count on it having PS2 longevity. But we'll see!

I think 100M Nintendo should be within reach when all is said and done. Nintendo should give equal support to Wii and DS though.

 

[kswiston]

Bombing? I don't know how the last DMC did in the US, but DMC4 already sold 530k (XB360 + PS3) in the opening month. In Japan, the PS3 version alone already exceeded the LTD of the last installment on PS2.

DMC3 debuted at 252,006 in March 2005. I can't see how DMC4 doubling that is possibly indicative of a bomb.

 

[donny2112]

Actual

Estimated

 

[tanod]

Hey donny or pantherlotus,

Do you guys have any charts for the three different consoles that show how they directly performed with their own sales year over year?

 

[Death Dealer]

I made some good guesses. I had PS3 at 280k and X360 at 260k. (pats self on the back)

 

[donny2112]

Hey donny or pantherlotus,

Do you guys have any charts for the three different consoles that show how they directly performed with their own sales year over year?

I don't have one pre-made, but it shouldn't be difficult to do. I couldn't post it until much later tonight, though. Next-Gen.biz's monthly NPD writeup (jvm) usually does that comparison in bar graph form, so you can look for last month's article to see the yoy standings through January 2008.

 

[tanod]

Wow! I just realized that the 360 had only ever outsold the PS2 in two months (launch and launch shortage ending) before MS finally did the $50 price cut and launched Halo 3.

EDIT: @donny: I like the lines better. ^_^ Thanks for the charts, BTW.

 

[nli10]

If Nintendo is cutting off strong software development now, that will begin to show its impact a year from now when the hardware begins to drop because of the slowed stream of releases.

Are you actually arguing that having no big first party releases will cause the DS sales to 30-45 year old women to slow down a year or so later? Are you sure about this, because I don't remember any major casual 1st party DS games coming out last year except for Mario Party.

Sure the 'hardcore gamerz' will have to find other games to play, but if they don't already have the system they aren't going to buy in this late in the cycle without price drops and restyles.

 

[Lord Error]

Are we going to get some software sales numbers other than the top 10 this time, or is that just not available to non-subscribers anymore?

 

[C- Warrior]

I think DMC4's relative bombing is going to deter alot of third parties away from development.

How is DMC4 selling 530,000 units in one month a bomb?

Hell, combine Japanese sales to expected European sales and the game is already past a million units -in one month-

 

[indie85]

Nice charts.

Actual

THIS is the one to watch.

 

[Zerachiel]

Uh, no.

The Wii beat the 360 for software last month and the month before. The DS demolishes its only competition by triple-digit factors, even taking into account install base differences. There's more to software than the top 10.

The PS3's software is poor, inside and outside the top 10. Not PSP level poor by any means, but certainly still fairly weak.

Are information for total sales by console avaliable to the public? I don't see it in the OP.

 

[donny2112]

Are information for total sales by console avaliable to the public? I don't see it in the OP.

Nintendo put out the Wii and DS total sales for February.

 

[Zerachiel]

Oh yeah, and does anyone have Apollo Justice sales figures? I'd be curious.

 

[timmy]

Top 5 worst NPD arguments

1) Wii Play is not a game
2) Tie ratio is not linear with installed base
3) Based on top 10 SW sales...
4) It only had 5 days of sales. It's going to do MUCH better next month.
5) Playstation Family sold ...

This is an amazing post.

 

[RBH]

Ratchet and Clank also shipped a million, so that's 10, if threespeech is correct.

Fixed.

 

[ag-my001]

I thought I had read somewhere that NPD was going to begin tracking online game subscriptions. Is that true, and if so, are we likely to see the numbers?

 

[Stumpokapow]

I thought I had read somewhere that NPD was going to begin tracking online game subscriptions. Is that true, and if so, are we likely to see the numbers?

IIRC they're only going to be tracking using a household diary method, so it'll be substantially less accurate than provider-side tracking I might be jumbling stuff up in my head, though.

 

[Zerachiel]

What Mr.Bob and others have said is right. It's an accessory and should be counted as one. If MS packed in Geometry Wars with the 360 controller or Sony Super Stardust with the Sixaxis, and charged $5-10 more, they would be in the Top 10 every month as well, according to NPD. It's still an accessory to anyone who has some common sense. What do you think people are going to buy, a controller or a controller with some mini-games for just $10 more? To compare it to something like Halo 3 is just ridiculous, in my opinion, because I and many others consider it an accessory. It's the remote + a handful of mini games. Almost all of your money is going towards the remote, not the mini-games. Anyone with a hint of objectivity would agree. I've made my point about this several times before and I really don't care to continue.

You're correct, but I think Wii Play should be included in software sales as a fudge factor to account for the Wii being bundled with the biggest software title of this generation.

That said, counting Wii Play as a game with Wii fit as an accessory is beyond asinine.

 

[n1n9tean]

Does there happen to be a singular cup involved in that gif? :lol

 

[Tmac]

Nice Charts.

It shows that january and february 2008 xbox sales were on par with last years on same time frame period. Actually they were sightly higher in 2008. If there was a shortage, it didn't affect sales much as some want you to believe.

 

[Zerachiel]

http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/15958/February-2008-NPD-Microsofts-Response/

Hmmm.

Assuming X360 titles sold for 60 dollars apiece, Wii titles for 50, we're at about 3.0 million units of software this month for Xbox to 2.6 million of software units for Wii. Adjust for Rock Band's 180 price point, and we're at about 2.7 mil to 2.6 mil. Wii GH outsold 360 GH, so that's likely to skew it back in favor of Xbox.

Also interesting to note that Wii GH > 360 Rock Band > 360 GH. Wonder if Rock band sales are cutting into GH sales, or if games just naturally have better legs on the Wii due to the more casual audience.

 

[Pureauthor]

The DS hardly has the same competition as the PS2 has had.

You're right. The PS2 was given the crown from the get-go. The DS actually had to fight for its winning position.

Why do people insist on comparing the two, it's like trying to mate a mongoose with a snake. They're two totally different things in two different markets in the same industry.

Well, I mated a Zangoose and a Seviper and I got a Seviper. Does that count?

Maybe it's just the whole: "yay the DS is passing the PS2 my DS love is requited and now I can start my Wii charts which show it better than the PS2 on odd numbered days in March!"

Nah, it's more - the DS stands a chance of beating the PS2 in total hardware sold.

 

[clav]

What are Wii owners buying? Top selling console should have a better showing in the top 10.

It says right there. Guitar Hero 3 and Wiiplay.

Well, most people I know bought it for WiiSports, and then they don't turn on their console two weeks later.

Only my gamer friends bought it because of the other Nintendo first party titles.

 

[hooligan]

Nice charts.

THIS is the one to watch.

Not really...why is it relevant?

 

[RpgN]

Good for ps3, and wow at the ps2! The DS is on a whole different level though. Amazing for it to have such a figure in spring. I wonder if it can sell this much in the summer?

 

[botticus]

It says right there. Guitar Hero 3 and Wiiplay.

Well, most people I know bought it for WiiSports, and then they don't turn on their console two weeks later.

I sure hope someone locates the other 2.4 million pieces of Wii software sold! What an accounting fiasco.

 

[borsdy]

Sad about the Advance Wars numbers Hope Twisted Metal did a little better.

Not really...why is it relevant?

2008 is the year for second place.





I'll ask once again, anyone know when we should expect the Canadian numbers?

 

[DeadGzuz]

Are information for total sales by console avaliable to the public? I don't see it in the OP.

Of course not, that's why he can say unfounded crap. When they do get released simply multiply every PS3 numbers by [360 LTDl/PS3 LTD] to get a normalized sales list.

 

[DarthWaiter]

Arg, someone post the LTD of Guitar Hero ps3, ps2, 360, and Wii

I wanna know who is winning this battle

 

[Busaiku]

Arg, someone post the LTD of Guitar Hero ps3, ps2, 360, and Wii

I wanna know who is winning this battle

I can't say for sure, but I think it goes something like:
PS2 > Wii > 360 > PS3

 

[PistolGrip]

hmm interesting.

 

[borsdy]

Arg, someone post the LTD of Guitar Hero ps3, ps2, 360, and Wii

I wanna know who is winning this battle

probably wii > ps2 > 360 > ps3

edit: wouldn't doubt it if the ps2 version was outing wii neither

 

[Elbrain]

I think DMC4's relative bombing is going to deter alot of third parties away from development.

Um what? bombing? what? You crazy son.

 

[Zerachiel]

Downloads: 32,637

I'm not saying that piracy isn't hurting the PSP, but straight-up comparing pirated copies to bought copies is just asinine. It ignores just about every basic tenet of economics. Drop the price, more people will buy it. Drop the price to zero, a shitload more people (I'd estimate around double) are going to buy it than if you priced it at something like $1-5. People that pirate the game at 0 bucks are not all going to buy it at 35.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

You're right. The PS2 was given the crown from the get-go. The DS actually had to fight for its winning position.

In post #1124

I totally agree! The DS actually had a huge chance of losing while the PS2 basically was coronated. Apples and oranges.

In other words, you got beaten