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Official Jan 2008 NPD Thread - HW Shortages + Spectacular SW

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
DeaconKnowledge said:
The Arcades are dying because the market they're intended for doesn't want a 360.


I think the Arcade could work, but only if a truly popular, casual game was packed in. How compelling in reality are a few free arcade games to a potential casual owner? They can play arcade games on their computer for free.
 

AtreyU

Neo Member
What was the worldwide shipment that nintendo said they would have by march 31 this year? I suspect that we wont see much increase in shipments from nintendo unless they have upped their shipment forecasts recently
 

felipeko

Member
AtreyU said:
What was the worldwide shipment that nintendo said they would have by march 31 this year? I suspect that we wont see much increase in shipments from nintendo unless they have upped their shipment forecasts recently
1.8M/month

Now they aren't stockpilling for holidays, we should see at the veery least 600k to NA, but i would guess a lot more, because NA is getting like 40% of total shipments...

March will be a monster...
 
Basch said:
Oh wow. This is a surprise. Hopefully a sign of good things to come. But most importantly all those PS3 owners better be picking up 300 and Spider Man 3. It will all be for naught otherwise. Matter of fact, while you're at it, I would recommend those owners also pick up Cars(you absolutely cannot refuse this one), RATatouille , and Shoot'em UP. Blu-ray movies are what PS3 is all about. So go get 'em. Hardware is always a nice sign though.

fix'd that up a bit for ya:D
 
Talamius said:
If I'm Sony I'm on the phone with T2 right now seeing what it would take to bundle GTA4 with PS3 in April (for a system cost as low as possible). Pay T2 what they want and strike while the iron is hot. $299 (or even $249) would be perfect.

If Microsoft has screwed up SKU production (HD-DVD? Massing Arcades and H3s while under-producing Pros and Elites?) as bad as some think then this is the perfect opportunity to seize a foothold.

It's worth eating a bit of a loss if it means reversing the trend in the US.

Will never happen, that's a $100 to $150 price drop...

I'm sure that Sony is very pleased with the headway they are making...They are going to turn a profit this year, a drop like this would erase any profit.
 

MisterHero

Super Member
Woo! Combined with the news about NMH this is a good couple of months. :D

Struct09 said:
Sony:

m8pgsh.jpg
10 year plan amirite? :p
 

pswii60

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
I'm sorry, but what i'm seeing here is that people are claiming shortages when a gaggle of Arcades are languishing on the shelves. The thought that a seemingly large amount of people are outright ignoring that SKU as well as the dog shit Halo version tells me that the 360 is selling to a specific set of gamers. We're 3 years into the life of the 360; why is adoption of the console still so conditional? Surely there is a subset of gamers who just want to get in on the console and its 20+ million selling library without spending a fortune. Microsoft obviously believes this, as that's the whole purpose of the Arcade, so why are we giving MS a mulligan for a tiered SKU that's not selling?

2 years and 2 months != 3 years. And 360 still sold 230k, even with your so-called 'conditional adoption'. And it all really is quite rediculous, when you consider 360 has outsold PS3 every month up until this month's NPD (outsold by 462k last month, nevr mind 40k), meaning that all of PS3's SKUs must be pretty niche by your standards. Also, even if the Arcade only makes up 20% of all 360 sales, that's still 20% that they may not have gotten otherwise, and don't forget that Sony had to discontinue the 20gb as it wasn't selling at all (conditional adoption again and all that).
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
I find it funny that you think it's stupid to assume this would happen as that's basically the reason the Arcade exists in the first place: a cheap alternative for casual players to get in on the ground floor with the 360.

Do you honestly think that a nations worth of casual fly by night gamers are looking at the 360 and saying "man, i'll wait for a Premium"?

The Arcades are dying because the market they're intended for doesn't want a 360.



Ah, your friends. Much better barometer of performance than NPD.

I'm sorry, but what i'm seeing here is that people are claiming shortages when a gaggle of Arcades are languishing on the shelves. The thought that a seemingly large amount of people are outright ignoring that SKU as well as the dog shit Halo version tells me that the 360 is selling to a specific set of gamers. We're 3 years into the life of the 360; why is adoption of the console still so conditional? Surely there is a subset of gamers who just want to get in on the console and its 20+ million selling library without spending a fortune. Microsoft obviously believes this, as that's the whole purpose of the Arcade, so why are we giving MS a mulligan for a tiered SKU that's not selling?




The Arcade is a machine in no mans land at $299, at that price you may as well but the premium with 2 games.

The Arcade will come into its own at the $199/ $149 price point, that sticker price will start winning casuals but the problem is MS couldn't have just waited till that price was acheivable they had to have it day 1 so that games were made with it in mind.

The Arcade's time will come in my opinion
 
I think people underestimate how many casual gamers have yet to make the jump to next-gen...Evidenced by how well the PS2 continues to sell...this generation is indeed going to last longer than anyone prior IMO...It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 3 years.
 

pswii60

Member
mr_bishiuk said:
The Arcade is a machine in no mans land at $299, at that price you may as well but the premium with 2 games.

The Arcade will come into its own at the $199/ $149 price point, that sticker price will start winning casuals but the problem is MS couldn't have just waited till that price was acheivable they had to have it day 1 so that games were made with it in mind.

The Arcade's time will come in my opinion

Well, I personally do think that MS could do away with the Arcade and that they should just lower the price of the Pro, but again we're getting in to 'GAF know more than MS' territory here, when we just don't know the full picture (profits, future plans, etc)

dsmoke1986 said:
I think people underestimate how many casual gamers have yet to make the jump to next-gen...Evidenced by how well the PS2 continues to sell...this generation is indeed going to last longer than anyone prior IMO...It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 3 years.

Wii is absorbing many of the casual gamers right now (along with continued sales of PSTwo). However, COD4 is pretty damn mainstream - look at the consistently high sales every month, Rock Band is mainstream, Madden is mainstream (360 was home to the largest sales of the franchise in 2007). This 'hardcore' gamer thing is a myth. Just "gamers", not "hardcore gamers". Why must every non-casual gamer these days be called a hardcore gamer? It's always one extreme or the other.
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
I find it funny that you think it's stupid to assume this would happen as that's basically the reason the Arcade exists in the first place: a cheap alternative for casual players to get in on the ground floor with the 360.

Do you honestly think that a nations worth of casual fly by night gamers are looking at the 360 and saying "man, i'll wait for a Premium"?

The Arcades are dying because the market they're intended for doesn't want a 360.

Ah, your friends. Much better barometer of performance than NPD.

I'm sorry, but what i'm seeing here is that people are claiming shortages when a gaggle of Arcades are languishing on the shelves. The thought that a seemingly large amount of people are outright ignoring that SKU as well as the dog shit Halo version tells me that the 360 is selling to a specific set of gamers. We're 3 years into the life of the 360; why is adoption of the console still so conditional? Surely there is a subset of gamers who just want to get in on the console and its 20+ million selling library without spending a fortune. Microsoft obviously believes this, as that's the whole purpose of the Arcade, so why are we giving MS a mulligan for a tiered SKU that's not selling?

If the Core/Arcade was priced appropriately, we might see this as the case. As in, subtract the exact retail value of everything that comes in the box with the premium that doesn't come with the Arcade, and then price it there.

MS keeps giving the thing an excuse not to sell though.

I've been saying it since last year, that even if the Core is under $199, a $299 Premium would still outsell it because what you get in the box is more than worth it.

Even a hypothetical, dumb as rocks, casual idiot of a consumer can look at the shelf right now and think "hmmm...for $70 more I get a $99 HDD, component cables, a headset, and two games, whereas with this one I get...Pacman."

The Arcade is a MUCH better value than the Core, but it's still an infinitely worse value than the Premium or Elite. The Halo 3 SKU, aside from its hideous color, suffers from the same problem. There is absolutely no incentive to pay $50 for what is essentially a premium without 2 games packed in.

MS has continuously underestimated the intelligence of their (potential) fanbase since the launch of the 360. If the Arcade existed in a vacuum, it would probably be more popular. Given the choice between getting an arcade and going to another store to find an Elite, it's obvious what consumers have chosen.

For what it's worth, they don't get a 'mulligan' for shipping too much of an undesired SKU. It's a screw up, and they deserve the egg on their face. But we can't ignore the difference between the SKUs and say "a 360 is a 360, they are in stock", when this isn't true to the average consumer.
 
mr_bishiuk said:
The Arcade is a machine in no mans land at $299, at that price you may as well but the premium with 2 games.

This makes sense, but at the same time I can't help but wonder why we're not seeing more opportunity cost purchases here. Meaning that since the 360 Premium is so scarce, how come Arcades/Halo editions aren't selling to any proportional degree by proxy? It's not like it's a different console entirely like the PS3 or Wii.

mr_bishiuk said:
The Arcade will come into its own at the $199/ $149 price point, that sticker price will start winning casuals but the problem is MS couldn't have just waited till that price was acheivable they had to have it day 1 so that games were made with it in mind.

The Arcade's time will come in my opinion

Perhaps price is the problem, but you figure MS would have anticipated this considering the degree that Arcades are dying here.

pswii60 said:
2 years and 2 months != 3 years. And 360 still sold 230k, even with your so-called 'conditional adoption'. And it all really is quite rediculous, when you consider 360 has outsold PS3 every month up until this month's NPD (outsold by 462k last month, nevr mind 40k), meaning that all of PS3's SKUs must be pretty niche by your standards. Also, even if the Arcade only makes up 20% of all 360 sales, that's still 20% that they may not have gotten otherwise, and don't forget that Sony had to discontinue the 20gb as it wasn't selling at all (conditional adoption again and all that).

You know, I don't recall once mentioning the PS3 in my previous posts.

My whole point of contention has nothing to do with the PS3. It's that the 360 has been on the market for over 2 years and is still not even coming close to mimicking the behaviors of a market leading console. The fact that people are largely ignoring a SKU that Microsoft shipped on equal footing with the premiums should be sending a red flag to MS: they're a good amount of time in, they have what they've often called one of the best lineups in gaming history, and the 360 Arcade STILL won't sell? This shouldn't be swept under the rug as a "olol no hard drive we'll get 'em next time" issue. MS made those things to sell, not as a scapegoat. You'd figure that they'd do something to make sure it happens.
 

Maloney

Member
If MS wants to move those Arcades, maybe they should consider packing in a 20gb hard drive for I dunno lets say $50 when you buy an Arcade console.

It would be cheaper than a Premium, but almost the same spec.

It would sell like hot cakes then.
 

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Sho_Nuff82 said:
If the Core/Arcade was priced appropriately, we might see this as the case. As in, subtract the exact retail value of everything that comes in the box with the premium that doesn't come with the Arcade, and then price it there.

MS keeps giving the thing an excuse not to sell though.

I've been saying it since last year, that even if the Core is under $199, a $299 Premium would still outsell it because what you get in the box is more than worth it.

Even a hypothetical, dumb as rocks, casual idiot of a consumer can look at the shelf right now and think "hmmm...for $70 more I get a $99 HDD, component cables, a headset, and two games, whereas with this one I get...Pacman."

The Arcade is a MUCH better value than the Core, but it's still an infinitely worse value than the Premium or Elite. The Halo 3 SKU, aside from its hideous color, suffers from the same problem. There is absolutely no incentive to pay $50 for what is essentially a premium without 2 games packed in.

MS has continuously underestimated the intelligence of their (potential) fanbase since the launch of the 360. If the Arcade existed in a vacuum, it would probably be more popular. Given the choice between getting an arcade and going to another store to find an Elite, it's obvious what consumers have chosen.

For what it's worth, they don't get a 'mulligan' for shipping too much of an undesired SKU. It's a screw up, and they deserve the egg on their face. But we can't ignore the difference between the SKUs and say "a 360 is a 360, they are in stock", when this isn't true to the average consumer.

Microsoft is trying to balance too many SKUs. I'm sure if they had known about the PS3 when they did the planning for the 360, it'd be different, but you can't change the past. They need to come off of the price and they need to do better allocation.
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
Busty said:
But I honestly don't understand why MS aren't doing this.
They aren't exactly doing great with Asian localizations either - although it used to be worse, first XBox was almost like "those damn Japanese/etc. will learn to play games in English and they will learn to love it!" attitude.

Maybe their marketing judges that extensive localizations are not cost effective? It's been a pattern for years now.
 

Mrbob

Member
Perhaps people are finally realizing what is packed into the PS3, and it makes the 360 look overpriced by comparison. MS better watch out. The longer they take to drop the price of the premium system, the better chance Sony can get price parity with the 40GB unit. And this would not be a good thing for the 360 at all. The games are leveling out, and the value the 40GB PS3 gives over the 360 pro is enormous.
 

gcubed

Member
its looking more and more like HD-DVD is officially dead as well. Sony just needs to be careful that they dont sell too many "movie player only" PS3's as no matter what happens in the US or Worldwide, they still need software to back up its hardware numbers
 

watership

Member
Bojanglez said:
You could argue that MS are rushing their products to Europe whereas Sony and Nintendo are taking the time to ensure the game is localised properly.

:|. Can you name a game that was localized poorly on the 360?
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
This makes sense, but at the same time I can't help but wonder why we're not seeing more opportunity cost purchases here. Meaning that since the 360 Premium is so scarce, how come Arcades/Halo editions aren't selling to any proportional degree by proxy? It's not like it's a different console entirely like the PS3 or Wii.



Perhaps price is the problem, but you figure MS would have anticipated this considering the degree that Arcades are dying here.



You know, I don't recall once mentioning the PS3 in my previous posts.

My whole point of contention has nothing to do with the PS3. It's that the 360 has been on the market for over 2 years and is still not even coming close to mimicking the behaviors of a market leading console. The fact that people are largely ignoring a SKU that Microsoft shipped on equal footing with the premiums should be sending a red flag to MS: they're a good amount of time in, they have what they've often called one of the best lineups in gaming history, and the 360 Arcade STILL won't sell? This shouldn't be swept under the rug as a "olol no hard drive we'll get 'em next time" issue. MS made those things to sell, not as a scapegoat. You'd figure that they'd do something to make sure it happens.

The arcade could well set to be the next PS2 very cheap but still with the manufacturer making some money on the units themselves. Like the PS2 it has no hardrive and once the components come down in cost and perhaps a slim version is released the $149 price is more than achievable.

I'm sure if the Arcade was that price now it alone would be beating the PS2 current sales while the Premium and Elite wouldn't have to sell any units.

Look at it this way when the Arcade is $149 what price will the PS3 with its Harddrive and blu ray be? $299? maybe $249? I think thats what MS were looking at when they thought up the Arcade Sku and at lower the sales prices the consumers are less aware/care of/about alternatives
 
mr_bishiuk said:
The arcade could well set to be the next PS2 very cheap but still with the manufacturer making some money on the units themselves. Like the PS2 it has no hardrive and once the components come down in cost and perhaps a slim version is released the $149 price is more than achievable.

I'm sure if the Arcade was that price now it alone would be beating the PS2 current sales while the Premium and Elite wouldn't have to sell any units.

Look at it this way when the Arcade is $149 what price will the PS3 with its Harddrive and blu ray be? $299? maybe $249? I think thats what MS were looking at when they thought up the Arcade Sku and at lower the sales prices the consumers are less aware/care of/about alternatives
How long did it take Sony to release the PS2 slim? I think a slim(reliable) 360 would be a big hit.
 
Outside of the top 10 are there any interesting software numbers that were released.
Do I really need to go through 32 pages to find them? =(
 

squatingyeti

non-sanctioned troll
bluheim said:
@squatingyeti : You could argue all day long, this will never change the fact that you said the PS3 will outsell the 360 by only 1 millions in 2008, 2 millions in 2009 and 3 millions in 2010. And that'll never change the fact that those three years will be very painful when reality finally catch you.

Do you not understand what the fuck a HYPOTHETICAL situation is. I was being reasonable, something you have no clue how to be. I SIMPLY said, IF (I know you don't understand what that word means) the PS3 were to outsell the 360 by 1M this year, 2M the next, and 3M the following, they would still be behind. Holy shit dude, it's nice you skipped that post I had that pointed out just a FEW of the stupid things you have said. Let's add this one seeing as you don't know the difference between someone saying this WILL happen and IF this did happen.
 

chemicals

Member
I'm surprised the Wii owners aren't crying after looking at these Software numbers.. the good games still aren't selling. Where's Mario Galaxy for christs sake?
 

Crushed

Fry Daddy
chemicals said:
I'm surprised the Wii owners aren't crying after looking at these Software numbers.. the good games still aren't selling. Where's Mario Galaxy for christs sake?
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY NINTENDO OF AMERICA NOV 2007 EVERYONE (E) 6 172K
 
mr_bishiuk said:
The arcade could well set to be the next PS2 very cheap but still with the manufacturer making some money on the units themselves. Like the PS2 it has no hardrive and once the components come down in cost and perhaps a slim version is released the $149 price is more than achievable.

I'm sure if the Arcade was that price now it alone would be beating the PS2 current sales while the Premium and Elite wouldn't have to sell any units.

Look at it this way when the Arcade is $149 what price will the PS3 with its Harddrive and blu ray be? $299? maybe $249? I think thats what MS were looking at when they thought up the Arcade Sku and at lower the sales prices the consumers are less aware/care of/about alternatives


MS would do well to do that, but I doubt that's what they had in mind. From what I can see MS thought 100 dollar difference was enough to trounce the PS3 which is why they flooded the channel with arcades.

Perhaps the Arcade will come into its own as a viable alternative for cheaper 360 gaming, but right now the things are doorstops that are burning MS' money everyday they don't get sold.
 

squatingyeti

non-sanctioned troll
Riddick said:
I don't care about hardware numbers that much. All I came here to say is BUY UNCHARTED YOU FUCKS. PS3 had a great tie in ratio and still Uncharted sold like shit. I love this game and it hurts me to see it selling like that.



:lol Oh squatingyeti...

Yes, let me point you to this post:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9772198&postcount=1464

Then, let me have you look above. You see, bluheim has a history of not knowing what the fuck he's talking about. This pattern continues as he doesn't understand what a HYPOTHETICAL situation is. Just as HE doesn't understand how numbers can be confirmed to be true apparently.
 

beerbelly

Banned
squatingyeti said:
Do you not understand what the fuck a HYPOTHETICAL situation is. I was being reasonable, something you have no clue how to be. I SIMPLY said, IF (I know you don't understand what that word means) the PS3 were to outsell the 360 by 1M this year, 2M the next, and 3M the following, they would still be behind. Holy shit dude, it's nice you skipped that post I had that pointed out just a FEW of the stupid things you have said. Let's add this one seeing as you don't know the difference between someone saying this WILL happen and IF this did happen.

Wow, he totally misread your post :lol
 

kswiston

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
MS would do well to do that, but I doubt that's what they had in mind. From what I can see MS thought 100 dollar difference was enough to trounce the PS3 which is why they flooded the channel with arcades.

Perhaps the Arcade will come into its own as a viable alternative for cheaper 360 gaming, but right now the things are doorstops that are burning MS' money everyday they don't get sold.

I think the Arcades were actually put out there to combat the Wii. The 40GB PS3 is more comparable to the 20GB pro (and the 80GB with the Elite).
 

Redd

Member
chemicals said:
I'm surprised the Wii owners aren't crying after looking at these Software numbers.. the good games still aren't selling. Where's Mario Galaxy for christs sake?
You can't be serious
 

squatingyeti

non-sanctioned troll
botticus said:
I'm sorry, are you saying I created that graph? That is actually Figure 1 referred to in their press release. They predict the LTD for Wii and 360 will decrease between 2010 and 2011.

I even provided a link in that post: http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/36067/118

Holy shit, I thought that graph was what they used. So, bluheim, about being wrong once again...You see, LTD can NOT decrease. That makes what, 20 times you've been talking to me directly and not had a clue what you're talking about. Please, go away.
 
DeaconKnowledge said:
MS would do well to do that, but I doubt that's what they had in mind. From what I can see MS thought 100 dollar difference was enough to trounce the PS3 which is why they flooded the channel with arcades.

Perhaps the Arcade will come into its own as a viable alternative for cheaper 360 gaming, but right now the things are doorstops that are burning MS' money everyday they don't get sold.

True getting the right Sku Balance is critical but The Arcade did sell over Christmas and the fact that there is some on the shelves is not a disaster, for example I bet there is far more PS3 40gigs on the shelves than 360 Arcades....
 

squatingyeti

non-sanctioned troll
beerbelly said:
Wow, he totally misread your post :lol

I'm not even sure it's that he misreads things. He may just be that slow. See my post above linking to just a few times he's done this. Bluheim, for your sake, quit while you still have some dignity. I'm asking nicely.
 

pswii60

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
My whole point of contention has nothing to do with the PS3. It's that the 360 has been on the market for over 2 years and is still not even coming close to mimicking the behaviors of a market leading console. The fact that people are largely ignoring a SKU that Microsoft shipped on equal footing with the premiums should be sending a red flag to MS: they're a good amount of time in, they have what they've often called one of the best lineups in gaming history, and the 360 Arcade STILL won't sell? This shouldn't be swept under the rug as a "olol no hard drive we'll get 'em next time" issue. MS made those things to sell, not as a scapegoat. You'd figure that they'd do something to make sure it happens.

Well, technically it isn't a market leading console! But, back to the point, considering previous leaders NES, SNES, PSX and PS2 didn't have multiple SKUs on the go at any time you really can't compare like that. Who knows that if PS2 had've had a cheaper SKU with some feature or functionality lacking, would that have sold far worse than the main SKU too?
 

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
With Blu-ray defeating HD-DVD any second now, the X360 and its loathesome HD-DVD add-on will have to endure a week or two of stories about Blu-ray winning and PS3 outselling X360. Wal-Mart just publicly put a stake through HD-DVD. Stories about that will circulate this weekend along with the January NPD.
 

pswii60

Member
DenogginizerOS said:
With Blu-ray defeating HD-DVD any second now, the X360 and its loathesome HD-DVD add-on will have to endure a week or two of stories about Blu-ray winning and PS3 outselling X360. Wal-Mart just publicly put a stake through HD-DVD. Stories about that will circulate this weekend along with the January NPD.

People don't buy a 360 for HD-DVD though. They never have. 360 has sold because of the games, HD-DVD is irrelevant. The pathetic HD-DVD add-on attach rate completely backs this up.
 

yoopoo

Banned
360 BURNOUT PARADISE ELECTRONIC ARTS JAN 2008 EVERYONE 10+ (E10+) 7 144.1K

Looks like them gamecube owners convinced a lot of folks not to buy this game.
 
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