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[whyamihere]

https://ddhq.io/2017/09/29/alabama-senate-special-election-poll/

Immediately after the runoff Tuesday, we commissioned Opinion Savvy to conduct a poll of the upcoming special U.S. Senate general election in Alabama. Opinion Savvy contacted 590 voters through landline and mobile devices on September 27th and 28th.

The horserace

Republican Roy Moore: 50.2%

Democrat Doug Jones: 44.5%

Moore boasts a huge lead among evangelical voters, 67.8% to 28%, while Jones boasts an even larger lead among non-evangelicals, 69.7% to 26.7%. Among African-American voters, Moore peels off 24.8% to Jones’ 70.9%, while among white voters, Jones has a surprising 36.1% to Moore’s 58.5%.

Presidential Job Approval

Strongly/somewhat approve: 54.6%

Strongly/somewhat disapprove: 42.9%

Is it really this close?

Always the question to ask when a poll is released, and one we asked ourselves as soon as we received the results. While the state of Alabama has not elected a Democratic U.S. Senator since Richard Shelby (who converted to a Republican after the 1994 midterm), Roy Moore has a general election record we can look at, his narrow win in 2012 to become Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court:

Moore underperformed Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney by eighteen points, losing Madison and Mobile counties and winning on the strengths of Republican rural pockets. It is entirely possible that he has a closer contest than anticipated this year as well: it’s a special election, it’s in December, and Democrats have overperformed in every Congressional special election this year.

But, it is Alabama, and Moore has a dedicated base of evangelical voters that carried him through two rounds of primaries and won’t abandon him over the next eleven weeks. The President has reiterated he will campaign for Moore if needed (while campaigning for his rival, incumbent Senator Luther Strange), and he remains a popular figure in the state.

 

[titiklabingapat]

It's Alabama so don't get your hopes up. Of course Moore will win.

 

[CrazyDude]

Which means Republicans will win with 12 points.

 

[jack_package_200]

Considering Jeff Sessions is from there, I am not surprised Alabama is supporting a white supremacist.

 

[HStallion]

Jones' reaction

 

[br3wnor]

There’s no way Jones has a shot, hopefully the DNC doesn’t waste money on this race.

 

[Slime]

 

[whitemex88]

It's fun to dream I guess

 

[thecouncil]

I feel like we've been here before.

 

[whyamihere]

There's no way Jones has a shot, hopefully the DNC doesn't waste money on this race.

We have a moral obligation to stop Moore. He's not Karen Handel. He's actually evil. Jones needs to make this like the 2015 Louisiana Governor's race.

Worth throwing a few thousand $ here.

 

[PandaPandaPanda]

if it was doug jones vs satan (literally), satan would win as long as he had an r next to his name

 

[SliceSabre]

lolno

Let's not even pretend this will even remotely be a pick up for the Democrats. The AL is like one of the reddest states in the US.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

The state’s job approval of Trump locks this race to whomever has a R next to their name.

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

Note to one self, never go to Alabama.

 

[necrosis]

"Among African-American voters, Moore peels off 24.8%"

shit like this will never fail to be crazy to me

 

[Ithil]

There’s no way Jones has a shot, hopefully the DNC doesn’t waste money on this race.

What kind of attitude is this?

"Red state, just give up who cares".

 

[HylianTom]

Even if Dems lose this race

Spoiler

(narrator: "They will")

, I'd love to see Democrats handcuff Roy Moore to every Republican seeking office next year.

Republicans have mastered the art of finding exploitable statements made by oddball, waaaaay left-field Democrats and using them to smear other Democrats running for office; I'd love to see Democrats return the favor sometime.

 

[ahoyhoy]

"Among African-American voters, Moore peels off 24.8%"

shit like this will never fail to be crazy to me

The power of Jesus.

 

[whyamihere]

"Among African-American voters, Moore peels off 24.8%"

shit like this will never fail to be crazy to me

Don't look into cross tabs where it gets that nitty gritty, the sample size is too small.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Among African-American voters, Moore peels off 24.8% to Jones' 70.9%

How?


edit- beaten

 

[FunkyMunkey]

of course the R will probably win but we've already got posts in here missing the point that most are watching at how close it will be. a close race would be a great sign for democrats

 

[Sephzilla]

it's kind of nuts that it's even this close considering it's Alabama. But i have a hard time believing there's a chance of a blue win

 

[clevbrowns94]

Ignore the race please DNC and all other groups, and let Jones die a peaceful death.

And don't forget this famous movie line, "Forget about it Jake...It's Alabama."

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

of course the R will probably win but we've already got posts in here missing the point that most are watching at how close it will be. a close race would be a great sign for democrats

Yeah, I highly doubt Jones can win but it'll be interesting to see how fed up Alabama voters are of Trump's inability to accomplish his goals and stay off twitter. From what I've seen (although I haven't checked in a while), republican support for Trump is slowly sliding away.

 

[Ogodei]

There’s no way Jones has a shot, hopefully the DNC doesn’t waste money on this race.

It's DSCC, first of all (this is important because then people blame Tom Perez for all sorts of stuff that's way outside his wheelhouse)

Second, in those margins he probably does have a shot, but only if DSCC just donates him money while staying out of the race. Nationalizing it will lose the race, let it be a debate among Alabamans about the merits of sending State Embarrassment Roy Moore to be one of their voices in the Senate.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

I feel like we've been here before.

Naw, that was Georgia. Totally different state.

 

[Saint Gregory]

I'm not falling for this again.

 

[whyamihere]

Basically if Jones needs to win, he needs to make it about Moore, not about Trump, with ads like this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpzMQ-z-QsY

 

[shnurgleton]

Call for help

 

[Razgriz-Specter]

It's Alabama so don't get your hopes up. Of course Moore will win.

Well going by what the news stations were saying the day of the vote,
82% of eligible voters in Alabama don't vote at any level.

so I guess there is a chance, just not too likely without a major push.

 

[SodiumBenzoate]

This is probably not winnable but making this race as high profile as possible, and making every other Republican on record supporting this lunatic, will be worth it next year elsewhere.

 

[mnannola]

Only way a Dem wins is if Roy has some monster, monster skeletons in his closet that come out. Even then I'm not even sure if it matters anymore.

 

[SliceSabre]

Only way a Dem wins is if Roy has some monster, monster skeletons in his closet that come out. Even then I'm not even sure if it matters anymore.

He would have to say is hates white people, loves BLM, eat a live baby on national television and then set a bible wrapped in an American flag on fire and put out the fire with his piss.

Even then Jones will probably still lose because he has a D after his name.

 

[reelbigtink]

I don't like getting my hopes up about this or anything, but the negativity in here makes me sad. Doug Jones is a great person and would be a positive step in the right direction for this state. Roy Moore has the Evangelical vote locked down but that's it.

Jones would likely be railroaded eventually and wrongfully sent to prison like Don Siegelman though so maybe he shouldn't win

(For context, we elected a Democrat as governor not too long ago, it's not an entirely crazy notion, especially with Roy Moore's volatility)

 

[KernelPanic]

New York Times has a disturbing article on how Bannon/Mercer and co want more such "anti-establishment " candidates.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/28/us/politics/steve-bannon-robert-rebekah-mercer-alliance.html

WASHINGTON — Stephen K. Bannon and two of his longtime benefactors are putting together a political coalition designed to ensure that the victory of a Republican insurgent in the Alabama Senate primary this week was just the beginning of the surprises that await the party establishment.

Mr. Bannon brings to the effort the political and promotional skills he showed as President Trump’s chief strategist and advocate for populist stances on issues like immigration and trade. His benefactors, the billionaire hedge fund investor Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah Mercer, bring wealth and their own proven anti-establishment streak.

The obstacles Mr. Bannon and the Mercers face are formidable: the well-funded resistance of mainstream Republicans; a shortage of viable anti-establishment candidates like Roy Moore, the victor in Tuesday’s Alabama Republican Senate primary; an absence of political infrastructure for supporting them; and their own reputations for not always following through on big political plans.

But the Bannon-Mercer alliance is likely to be a potent factor in widening the divisions laid bare by the Alabama race and the intraparty battles that have crippled the Republican agenda in Congress. It could put Mr. Bannon and the Mercers on a collision course with not just the Republican establishment but with other donor-driven political organizations, including the one built by the billionaire brothers Charles G. and David H. Koch — and potentially with Mr. Trump.

 

[SirClinksAlot]

lolno

Let's not even pretend this will even remotely be a pick up for the Democrats. The AL is like one of the reddest states in the US.

Its not really about this race. If Jones is polling this closely in Alabama that is good news for Dems in 2018.

I would like to see more data, though.

 

[antipode]

I donated $50 to Jones on Wednesday.

Even if Roy Moore wasn't completely insane - Doug Jones seems like a great candidate.

He put KKK members in jail, for a 20-year-old Birmingham church bombing case that was unsuccessfully prosecuted the first time. Like an Upside-Down Jeff Sessions.

 

[HStallion]

New York Times has a disturbing article on how Bannon/Mercer and co want more such "anti-establishment " candidates.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/28/us/politics/steve-bannon-robert-rebekah-mercer-alliance.html

I'm still not sure how the GOP plans to handle this situation. Obviously they're far larger, richer and more entrenched but Bannon can play the fools of this country like a fiddle. I guess its one of those things where the fact they're fighting each other is better than focusing on fighting the rest of us.

 

[RustyNails]

Within 10 points is a swing, 6 points is a massive swing.

 

[EdibleKnife]

I donated $50 to Jones on Wednesday.

Even if Roy Moore wasn't completely insane - Doug Jones seems like a great candidate.

He put KKK members in jail, for a 20-year-old Birmingham church bombing case that was unsuccessfully prosecuted the first time. Like an Upside-Down Jeff Sessions.

Speaking of MoveOn.org has a donation page for supporting Jones in this race: https://act.moveon.org/donate/dougjones

 

[Robdraggoo]

Id scott walker can take a seat in MA in 2010. Why the hell not. Do it Alabama!

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Why is the Vincent Kennedy McMahon entrance music playing in my head.

I can't put a finger on it.

 

[Knoxcore]

If this race becomes national, we lose. Keep it local. Local issues. It's the only way to win this race.

 

[Knoxcore]

New York Times has a disturbing article on how Bannon/Mercer and co want more such "anti-establishment " candidates.

Watching The Handmaid's Tale wondering how on Earth could it have gotten this bad. Well...now I know.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I donated $50 to Jones on Wednesday.

Even if Roy Moore wasn't completely insane - Doug Jones seems like a great candidate.

He put KKK members in jail, for a 20-year-old Birmingham church bombing case that was unsuccessfully prosecuted the first time. Like an Upside-Down Jeff Sessions.

As stupid as it sounds (at least to me), you could probably use his history of jailing KKK members in ads and somehow tie that to white peoples' obsession with being "not racist". Like, "How can I be racist if I voted for the guy who locked up KKK members?" Play up that angle and you might be able to guilt some folks into voting for Jones over Moore. I feel like that's our best shot in Alabama, anyway.

 

[Brakke]

We have a moral obligation to stop Moore. He's not Karen Handel. He's actually evil. Jones needs to make this like the 2015 Louisiana Governor's race.

Worth throwing a few thousand $ here.

Yeah if Dems can’t be bothered to oppose an outright villain, then why would I even give them dollars.

 

[Septimus Prime]

It's Alabama so don't get your hopes up. Of course Moore will win.

I came into this thread thinking both candidates would be Republican in the first place. But then I remembered I was thinking California rules.

 

[siddx]

Alabama, one of the five circles of US hell.

 

[Pyroclastic]

I'm not falling for this again.

ain't nothing to fall for. it's likely a loss but that doesn't mean folks shouldn't get behind the dem candidate. moore is a theocrat that would make half the tea party blush, any chance (no matter how slim) should be seized upon.

 

[MetalGearZed]

Well going by what the news stations were saying the day of the vote,
82% of eligible voters in Alabama don't vote at any level.

so I guess there is a chance, just not too likely without a major push.

that's just maddening